Michigan -15 @Maryland
https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
Still -15 in most places, -14.5 at DraftKings
Over/Under opened at 61.5, immediately plummeted. Now at 55.5, with one 55
Other lines of note:
MSU +20 @OSU. (open +18). O/U 68
- Bad matchup for MSU secondary, although by my count, OSU is just 5-19-1 ATS since 1996 in the game before Michigan
Arkansas +20.5 @ Alabama (open +22.5). O/U 56
Oregon +3 @ Utah (open +2.5). O/U 59
- Line "stinks" going purely by rankings. (Please do not go by rankings if betting actual money.)
SMU +12.5 @ Cincinnati (open +15!). O/U 65
- Noticed this was high right away, but had "Vegas knows something" all over it. Maybe I missed out.
Georgia Tech +15.5 @ Notre Dame (open +18). O/U @60
Iowa St +5 (or 6.5 in some places) @ Oklahoma (open +8.5). O/U @60
Okla St -10.5 @ Texas Tech (open -10). O/U 56.5
Nebraska +10.5 @ Wisconsin (open +9.5). O/U 42
The couple of fancystats ratings I've seen side slightly with Maryland. SP+ would have Michigan around -13, and PiRatings at -11. But Maryland is often skewed by their feast-or-famine nature, with the feasting usually happening before the leaves turn.
FPI has Michigan around -17. Sportsline has Michigan 37, Maryland 16 & OSU 42, MSU 21
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/32630394/college-football-sp+-rankings-week-11 (paywall)
https://piratings.wordpress.com
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
https://www.sportsline.com/college-football/picks/ (paywall)
November 14th, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Beat Maryland - turtles have shells for a reason
November 14th, 2021 at 7:33 PM ^
Praying for beautiful weather in CBUS this coming weekend so there's no Sparty fluke monsoon win like they had over OSU in 2015 (same year as the punt 6 fluke game)
Praying for shit weather in Ann Arbor the following week so it becomes a rock fight
It's been 20 years...universe, throw us a bone!
November 15th, 2021 at 1:28 AM ^
I’ll sit through a volcanic eruption if it means Michigan wins. An actual rock fight.
November 15th, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
No weather issues Saturday in C-Bus or at Maryland. The wind won't be a factor for OSU to throw the ball against Sparty. Same for our game at MD.
November 14th, 2021 at 7:35 PM ^
OSU is just 5-19-1 ATS since 1996 in the game before Michigan
Those fuckers, tanking the week before Michigan. I bet there is no other week of the season they have a record like that.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:14 PM ^
Agreed. But this year is a year that they have to actually prep and play that game to the fullest if they want to win the B1G. No room for a stupid loss.
Honestly, if MSU wins, and UM wins next week, if MSU beats UW in the champ game, UM still has a backdoor chance into the playoff... Who knows. Beat UMD.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^
Yes, a couple things have to happen but it's plausible in your scenario that Michigan gets in the "back door".
I also don't think MSU beating UW is a gimme, and less likely OSU going 0-2 these next two games...but how awesome would that be?
November 14th, 2021 at 9:57 PM ^
As long as we are exploring implausible scenarios, what are the Playoff implications of 〽️ and MSU both winning out the regular season but MSU losing in the B1G championship game to a resurgent Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa and thereby gaining a second loss in a game that 〽️ didn’t have to play? Ouch!
November 14th, 2021 at 11:42 PM ^
Would need cinci to lose
bama lose to UGA
Oregon losing wouldn’t hurt...
that might do it? Who knows...
November 14th, 2021 at 8:16 PM ^
What is Michigan's record ATS in the game before OSU during that same timeframe, just out of curiousity?
November 14th, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^
Checking Oddshark in the same way, Michigan ATS pre-OSU:
3-2 vs Indiana
1-7 vs Wisconsin
3-1 vs Penn St
0-1 vs Maryland
2-0 vs Iowa
1-0 vs Nebraska
2-1 vs Northwestern
By my count, that makes 12-12 since 1996. I did not count last year as both the OSU game and the game the week before were cancelled.
**Also, a note and an apology -- I mistakenly counted last year in the loss column for OSU vs the spread. Since The Game wasn't played, we should say 5-18-1 since '96.
If you wanted to count last year, they covered vs MSU -- perhaps expecting to play Michigan the following weekend? -- which would make 6-18-1
November 14th, 2021 at 9:05 PM ^
Breakdown for OSU vs the spread in the week before Michigan, since 1996:
0-2 vs MSU
0-2 vs Penn St
0-1 vs Maryland
1-7 vs Illinois
0-3 vs Indiana
1-0 vs Wisconsin
1-1-1 vs Iowa
2-0 vs Northwestern
0-2 vs Purdue
Total: 5-18-1
(again, apologies for the extra loss in the OP)
Keep in mind that many of these were comfortable wins, but some of the spreads were into the 30s. The outright losses: ILL '99, ILL '01, PUR '04, ILL '07, PSU '11, MSU '15
November 15th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
Just a final thought -
I certainly would have preferred getting Illinois 1/3 of the time the week before The Game rather than, say, going to Madison. If I had to pick.
November 14th, 2021 at 7:50 PM ^
Hoping Michigan is favored by the same amount later this basketball season.
November 14th, 2021 at 7:54 PM ^
We will win by more than 15.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:03 PM ^
MSU is going to beat OSU.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
Based on? Do you have some ability to see into the future weather and there is heavy rain, snow or wind? That is MSU's only chance of OSU not blowing it open with 500+ passing yards.
November 14th, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
If Vlady says it you might want to take notice. his dissenters sometimes get a cup of that polonium coffee and not doing so well.…
November 14th, 2021 at 8:16 PM ^
Not a chance.
Stroud might throw for 500.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
Talk is cheap. If you really believed that there’s money to be made. But you don’t believe it.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^
I don't believe it either, but I've seen MSU beat better OSU teams.
November 14th, 2021 at 11:06 PM ^
You’ve also seen them lose the last 4 matchups by a total score of 160-31. You’ve also only seen them win twice in the past 20+ years. OSU is going to win this game by 30
November 15th, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
Yeah, but typically with much better defenses. Those couple of Dantonio wins over Urban had peak Dantonio/Narduzzi defenses that were able to bottle OSU up. You never know--see 1998--but I have a hard time seeing Sparty being able to beat OSU in a shootout, which is probably the only way they'd be able to...
November 14th, 2021 at 9:03 PM ^
MSU's greatest weakness, its pass defense, is Ohio State's greatest strength, its pass offense.
Unless Walker runs for 350 yards on OSU, OSU is gonna put at least 40 on MSU. MSU cant put 40 on OSU.
Prediction: OSU 45, MSU 30. OSU *only* scores 45 because Walker puts 230 yards on OSU, allowing MSU to keep the ball for longer than most people thought. Still not enough though.
#GoBlue
November 14th, 2021 at 10:39 PM ^
OSU is going to take away the run. That is my prediction for that game. MSU cannot win in a shootout with OSU. Walker is good but their OL is not that good. Plus MSU is not going to be bailed out by refs in the shoe.
November 15th, 2021 at 10:26 AM ^
This is true. But it's also true that OSU has a weak run defense and MSU has an explosive run offense.
If OSU struggles in the redzone, like they did against Penn State, I could see another version of the MIchigan/MSU game for sure.
November 14th, 2021 at 9:11 PM ^
Is Staee scoring 51? Because the Bucks are putting up 50 on that D.
November 14th, 2021 at 9:12 PM ^
48 degrees, partly sunny in Columbus suggests that if MSU were to win the score would be 52-49. OSU scores a bunch. If they are patient with Walker then they will contain him. Michigan and Purdue were able to throw so unless OSU has a turnover prone day (why would they except to give Michigan fans hope but then OSU plays error free the next week) then OSU likely wins.
Cousin Larry beat me to it. I suspect that MSU will cover the spread as OSU lets up at the end and the Spartans continue to score twice in the 4th after the game is out of reach.
November 14th, 2021 at 9:43 PM ^
November 14th, 2021 at 10:12 PM ^
Is that a lock pick? If so we all know to avoid and pick the opposite.
November 14th, 2021 at 10:28 PM ^
I don’t think you checked with Smooth Jimmy yet.
November 15th, 2021 at 1:08 AM ^
Probably not, Vlad, but even if they did, they will still lose to Penn State. :)
November 14th, 2021 at 8:05 PM ^
Maryland’s basically a less talented Penn State (throws it around, not much of a run game) with a bad defense. Michigan should be able to do what they want offensively, which is probably going to be to control the clock this game. Maryland is capable of hitting on some big plays, but Hutch/Ojabo will feast and Tua’s brother will make mistakes after constant pressure. Our secondary will have a chance to make some plays on the ball. Ideally the secondary comes out of this game confident because they’re going to need that confidence in 2 weeks.
State has a chance to make some plays against Ohio State, but I can’t see them making enough to keep up. I may see as much playing time in that game as Ohio State’s punter will.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:14 PM ^
I agree with the fancy stats that +14.5 seems high for Maryland. Not only can (not saying they will, just saying they can) be explosive with points, this has TRAP game written all over it. (As the OP pointed out, OSUs record against the spread the week before UM)
Also, I wonder what people are seeing in the ND/Ga Tech game to move the line down that much? That is a big move without some new info coming out.
November 15th, 2021 at 6:27 AM ^
This will not be a trap game. If anything bet first half spread on Maryland because of slow Michigan start after big win at PSU. Michigan knows what is at stake here.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:20 PM ^
Totally surprised MSU is a 20 point dog against OSU. My guess would have been 9.5 or so.
My guess is that a week from now we open up as a 6.5 point dog at home.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:42 PM ^
20 seems right to me. OSU has one of the best passing games in the country. MSU has one of the worst pass defenses. It could get ugly early.
November 15th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
MSU's pass defense is ranked dead last - it's 130th out of 130. I have to believe that's the reason for the 19 to 20 point spread. Stroud is really good - especially for a freshman - but it's those WRs and OL that make that passing game go.
November 15th, 2021 at 5:25 AM ^
Heard the early line on UM and OSU will be UM +7.5 or 8
November 14th, 2021 at 8:20 PM ^
I’d pick OSU to cover and then some. Cade threw for almost 400 yards on those guys. OSU has three future first round picks at WR. Walker will get his yards and make some plays, but MSU’s secondary is going to get absolutely roasted.
November 14th, 2021 at 9:18 PM ^
Tagovailoa (Maryland) threw for 350 yards in a losing effort with 13 penalties and 2 turnovers. MSU brings out the worst in their opponents (I credit Tucker) but I don't think that will work against OSU.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^
early Vegas roll call for Michigan basketball takeover weekend? let's take over Circa sportsbook for the saturday football games, amazing spot to watch games.
November 15th, 2021 at 8:29 AM ^
I will be there. Game time decision if we go to the UNLV game the night before.
November 14th, 2021 at 8:41 PM ^
This is exactly the line I would have set, which makes me suspicious
November 14th, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^
Willy Wonka is curious why this makes you suspicious
November 14th, 2021 at 8:57 PM ^
Shall agree with the FPI. At kick-off, the line will be UM -17.
#GoBlue
November 14th, 2021 at 9:11 PM ^
I don't want to feel overconfident with so much on the line.....but I watched Maryland have a really hard time with MSU getting pressure on their QB and he made some bad decisions. Feels like a situation ripe for our DEs to feast.
Run the ball, avoid turnovers, pressure the QB, avoid big plays......good things happen. Might not always be sexy or exciting...but keep it up.
Despite the bad outcome against MSU and the doom that awaits with OSU....we have two weeks left and all possibilities for this season are still available.
November 15th, 2021 at 7:47 PM ^
He had 3 intentional groundings and was constantly running around avoiding pressure. I would think our dline will be way too much for them to handle.
November 14th, 2021 at 9:21 PM ^
I don't mean to threadjack but these lines got me thinking about road schedules this year. For MSU and OSU it's been utterly laughable. Their best road win between the two of them to date has been....OSU @ Minnesota in week 1? Maybe MSU@ 5-5 Miami? OSU was unimpressive on the road at Nebraska. MSU lost by two scores @Purdue and other than they've played body bags.
Not so much for either school the last two weeks.
November 14th, 2021 at 9:29 PM ^
When was the last time a top-10 team was a 20-point 'dog to another top-10 team?