Mens Hoops - the week ahead in the B1G - then, the BTT in Chicago
True Blue 9 has been posting great content every day about Michigan's position for the Dance - and, which teams around the country to cheer for on any given day. My thanks for those posts - they are informative with solid detail / supporting information.
A bit closer to home. The B1G enters their final week of the regular season this week. Each team is slated to play two games - and, Michigan finds itself tied for second place in the conference (I am not sure how the tie breakers play in - and, can't comment on whether Michigan would be in the "double bye" territory today).
So, what's the schedule this week for the top teams in the conference - those with an 11-7, or better, record in B1G play.
- Purdue: 13-5, at Wisconsin, then hosting Illinois,
- Maryland: 11-7, at OSU, then at PSU,
- Northwestern: 11-7, hosting PSU, then at Rutgers,
- Indiana: 11-7, hosting Iowa, then hosting Michigan,
- Michigan: 11-7, at Illinois, then at Indiana.
Three teams have 10-8 conference records:
- Iowa: at Indiana then hosting Nebraska,
- Illinois: hosting Michigan, then at Purdue, and
- Rutgers: at Minnesota, then hosting Northwestern.
Michigan State has a 9-8 record - and, I haven't heard whether the B1G will reschedule the postponed game against Minnesota. The Spartans will play at Nebraska, then host the Buckeyes.
Only one team in the above group finishes with two home games - that's Indiana. Two teams in the above group plays both their last two on the road - Maryland and Michigan.
Any team with an 8-10 record, or worse, can reach a "top four" in the conference and realize a double bye in the BTT.
Michigan "controls it's own destiny" to recognize a double bye. The only way to do that is to win the last two games on the road.
What are you looking forward to seeing in conference play? Which teams do you think will finish in the Top 4 in the conference? Do you have any plans to travel to Chicago for the BTT?
One game at a time - Go Blue!
February 27th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Just imagine if we could have won a couple of those close losses to top 10 teams or half of the 57 losses in which we had the lead late.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
The 4-point play to Sandfort to let Iowa win, and the CMU loss. All easy flips, and we'd be a 8-9 seed. Ugh.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
I feel like Indiana and Wisconsin were games they weren’t just close but had in their hands and let slip away.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
Michigan trailed the entire final 18 minutes of the game at Wisconsin. They could have won that game, but wouldn't say they should have.
Def should have won the IU game, I agree.
They should have won the UVA game as well. Led most of that one including an 11 point second half lead, only to choke it away in the last minute.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
I feel like 8/9 seed is the kiss of death, since you get the 1 seed in the second round. But your point is correct--we are aren't far from a much better seed line. No one would be asking to play us as a double digit seed.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
None of the one seeds are particularly scary this year. The top four have a significantly lower avg kenpom than in years past. I would expect one or two second round upsets of one seeds and general mayhem this year.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
Purdue will probably be a one seed and we know they won't get past the Sweet 16 at best.
Kansas will advance to the Final Four.
Houston will at least get to Elite 8.
Alabama - I'm guessing Oats sits Brandon Miller for one game to either close out the season or the first game of the SEC tournament so he can have a better position with the media entering the NCAA tourna...what were we talking about???
February 27th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
CMU
Iowa
IU
Those losses were very painful.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
Very painful losses indeed.
However I dont think anybody expected our 7 foot center to hit a contested 30 foot shot at the buzzer yesterday so maybe endgame Karma is 1-3 now.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^
OTOH, we trailed because Wisconsin had banked in a three just before. Hunter's shot just evened up the karma.
February 27th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
Virginia
Kentucky
North Carolina
Those losses were just as painful. Just going .500 in those six games would mean probably a 5-seed.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
stop exaggerating. it was only 56 games we lost when having late leads.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
It's disappointing to miss out on those opportunities, but overall I'm just happy that Juwan is showing that he absolutely can develop players (including guards). The play of Dug, Kobe, and Reed has me excited to see what Howard can build if he can just get the slightest amount of continuity from one year to the next.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
And they’re finally figuring out to close out games. Yeah they needed a miracle yesterday but they closed it out in OT.
February 27th, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^
This program needs everyone back with a chip on their shoulder.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
Could have easily lost a few more to mac teams too to be fair.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Appreciate the shoutout, Amazin! I'll have my post out here in a bit after a few brackets get updated.
I'm hopeful for the Illinois game, the IU game? Not so much. Tough place to play, Senior Day....we'll see.
As for the BTT, I actually live in Chicago, so I'll absolutely be there for most of the games. I wouldn't mind a match-up with: Rutgers, Penn State, Northwestern or Maryland. I'd prefer to avoid Wisconsin, MSU, or Iowa. Hot take, it would not shock me at all if Nebraska makes it far in the BTT. Much like us, they're getting really hot at the right time.
Really hoping for at least 1-1 this week. Wouldn't totally shock me if we went 2-0 or 0-2. 0-2 leaves quite a bit of work to do in the BTT. Need a win this week, not sure what else there is to say about that.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
Careful. I made a joke about getting paid to come to Ann Arbor for a game and got dinged for "bragging" about living somewhere else.
Looking forward to today's Bubble Report. (The first dirty joke I heard, about playing with Bubbles in the bath.)
February 27th, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
TB9, your posts are great - again, I can't thank you enough for your contributions.
As an aside - it adds to the enjoyment of rooting for a team (particularly one that's a bit easier to cheer for) when they can support Michigan's pursuit of the Dance.
And, I live in the Chicago area too. I'm near Libertyville - and, get to Ann Arbor frequently during football season - but, not too much during the Winter semester.
Go Blue!
February 27th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^
I took a quick glance at Monday's Schedule. Teams to root against:WV @ iowa st...NC @ fl.st...OK.ST.vs baylor..I'll wait for TrueBlue9 to confirm.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
You nailed it! Just did my post and also added the Nevada/Wyoming game for one additional game :)
February 27th, 2023 at 8:14 PM ^
Nebraska just might beat Sparty and send them into a glorious tailspin.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
Here's a beautiful pic I took of the TV after the late slate wrapped up yesterday on BTN
February 27th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
This is not the original question, but I don't think MSU/Minnesota should reschedule. It is unfair to MSU to cram that extra game in. It also shouldn't impact their tournament seeding. Playing Minnesota would actually hurt their SOS. Just let it go.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
They said last night during Rutgers' wild comeback that Rutgers was unwilling to change their schedule to accommodate State-Minnesota. They would have faced the same unfair impact of a crammed schedule.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
I'm sure everyone is fine with this. Even if it's a gimme for state, I doubt they'd rather cram that in just for possible seeding purposes.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
Izzo wanted to reschedule. He's complaining about it.
February 27th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
If they rescheduled it, he would complain about the compressed schedule. My point is, he likes to complain about stuff.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
More Izzshit? He's complaining about getting screwed out of a win, reinforcing his/msu's victimization complaint, BUT also probably recognizes the game would hurt SOS.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
Yeah, there's little reason for MSU to want to play this game. It's only going to hurt their SOS and would severely injure their tourney shot with a loss.
I have a sense they won't reschedule and it'll be a net-positive for everyone involved.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
At this point it definitely is not getting rescheduled. Steve Pikiell said as much last week when Rutgers was approached by the B1G at MSU's behest about changing their Thursday game against Minnesota to accommodate MSU/Minnesota. Pikiell rightfully declined.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
tiebreaker is winning percentage vs other teams so in this case Maryland, UM, NU, Indiana are the order and you see the draw in the post below. That will change of course since UM and IU play each other this week.
February 27th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
Doing some Torvik simulations and it seems pretty clear that with a win vs either IU or Illinois AND a win in the BTT we probably slide into at the least the First Four. 20 wins gets us to probably avoid the First Four. 18 wins though, and we are just below the cut line.
For the past month I have said that we would need to get to 20 wins to make the tournament, but that now seems to have been lowered to 19. It just makes some of those heartbreaking losses sting even more. Even with the CMU loss, had we closed out Iowa at Iowa we would be in a pretty good spot right now.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
its wild to think that flipping that Iowa game puts us in a reasonable seat to share a big ten title
February 27th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
Finishing 2-0 means Michigan will finish 2, 3 or 4.
Finishing 0-2 and Michigan is somewhere between 6th and 9th.
Finishing 1-1 and it's still possible to be as high as 2 and as low as 5.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
MSU/Minnesota officially won't be rescheduled.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
Need to get at least a split and then win 1 in the BTT to make the play in games. Getting to 20 wins should put us in the actual first round of the tournament.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
If the top four in the conference get a double bye, there is no way any team with a 8-10 record can reach the top four as the best those teams can do is finish 10-10. There are already 5 teams that would finish 11-9 or better and earn the double bye over those teams presently sitting at 8-10.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
14, you are correct, and I meant to write the 8-10 teams cannot reach a double bye. Thanks for catching that.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
The Curse of Michigan's Quad 1 Record
I often check 1-3-1 Sports, considered one of the top-ranked bracketologists in The Bracket Matrix, They update their list every day.
In today’s update, they’ve got Mississippi State (19-10, 7-9 in SEC, NET 39), West Virginia (16-13, 5-11 in Big XII, NET 26), Oklahoma State (16-13, 7-9 in Big XII, NET 46) and Wisconsin (16-12, 8-10 , NET 72) in the Big Ten) as the Last Four In, Arizona State (20-9, 11-7 in Pac-12, NET 61), North Carolina (18-11, 10-8 in the ACC, NET 47), Michigan (17-12; 11-7 in third place in Big Ten, NET 55) and Clemson (21-8, 13-5 in ACC) as the First Four Out and Utah State (22-7, 11-5 in Mountain West, NET), Penn State (17-12, 8-10 in Big Ten, NET 59), Texas Tech (16-13, 5-11 in Big XII, NET 54) and New Mexico (20-9, 7-9 in Mountain West, NET 48) as the Next Four Out.
This is the closest that the Wolverines have been to 1-3-1 Sports' projected NCAA Tournament Field since February 1 when Michigan was 11-10, but it appears that Michigan's 3-10 record in Quad 1 games might be the determining factor in keeping the Wolverines just out of the NCAA field while Wisconsin with a worse record and a recent road loss to Michigan, but a 6-6 record in Quad 1 games sneaks into the NCAA field. It pays to finish strong! GO BLUE!
February 27th, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
On the positive side of that, WVU and Oklahoma State both have really, really tough games tonight. Hopefully we can get one or both of those to fall our way. Florida State knocking off UNC sure would help too.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
Good point.
I'm trying to remain positive about the Wolverines' chances for the NCAA Tournament, but on the negative side, I'm thinking that being bunched with Arizona State and North Carolina among the First Four Out still poses a problem for Michigan because of the head-to-head results from earlier in the season.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
I can't believe anyone thinks UNC is even close with that abysmal q1 record (and not even a great q2 record).
I think the committee is going to look at them and be like, yuck, unless they improve that.
As to Michigan's q1 record, I completely agree with this bracketologist. They need their q1 record to improve which is why they need to win one this week but also it would help tremendously if MSU got to top 30 (they're very close at 33rd) and/or if Pitt gets to top 50 (they're also very close at 53).
That MSU collapse is ironically probably what is keeping Michigan on the outside in at this point.
February 27th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
Well we know they need at least 1 more quad 1 win. So minimum of 4-10. But there's going to be an opportunity for at least 2 more, plus the chance MSU and Northwestern become quad 1, meaning best case they can be 7-10 in quad 1.
February 27th, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^
UM lost 10 Q1 games by a total of 64 points. If you take out the PSU clunker, we lost 9 games by 42 points (4.7 ppg). I really hope the committee realizes that most of our Q1 loses were essentially coinflips that just we didn't win. If three of those coin flips go in our direction, we are single digit seed. Our 3 Q1 wins are by an average of 21.7 ppg with the smallest 13 @ Rutgers. UM is a case where the numbers don't tell the whole story and if the committee wants the best teams (and the most eyeballs) they should give UM some extra credit for losing so many coin flips.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
Re: tiebreakers when 3+ teams - all teams comparative record against the other tied teams. MD is 3-1 against the other 3 teams T-2nd B1G, we are 3-2 (this is where tieing NW in a logjam could come in handy) so we are the #3.
Hoping for a split this week, and, if NW can split between PSU/@RU, the 2-0 H2H could immensely help the comparative records if a 12-8 B1G cluster forms.
February 27th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
I will be in Champaign on Thursday. Do we still have a chance to win the Big Ten regular season? Theoretically, we could win out and Purdue could lose both games, right?
February 27th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
tiebreakers for seeding don't matter when you hang a banner! Yes, 0-2 keeps a share alive for the logjam of 2nd place teams
February 27th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
I don’t think Michigan could WIN the B1G outright, because Purdue would have the “head to head” - but - theoretically - Michigan could TIE for the B1G.
Regarding the BTT, I heard Purdue has locked up the #1 seed. However, if Purdue loses both this week, and Indiana wins both their games - both would have a 13-7 conference record, and Indiana owns the “head to head” with the Boilermakers.
So, I think Purdue has locked at least a tie for the regular season conference title.
February 27th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
I was thinking it would be better if we did not get the double bye to have a more winnable 1st game in the BTT.