Lets talk about the MSU game
So first, spare the “They have no chance” or “this game is already over” talk. We have been in this position as heavy favorites before, only to fall short in a variety of bizarre ways.
Quite frankly they aren’t very good. They played much better against Wisconsin but if you watched that game, I’m not sure what Wisconsin was doing. I’m not sure there is a single position where MSU is better. Marginally the punter?
Thorne is ok and he’s going to frustrate us by escaping pressure and heaving downfield. Reed and Coleman might be problems at WR. They both seem to thrive at making plays on downfield shots. We are going to have to make plays on the ball because they will likely go deep down the field like the Lombardi game of 2020.
Of course Walker is gone and that’s massive. Their current RBs are average and the OL is mediocre again. When they are on offense I expect them to be ultra aggressive going downfield, they will bring out trick plays and will go for it on 4th down in non traditional situations.
On defense they are better at stopping the run than they are at stopping the pass. Although Graham Mertz inexplicably was baffled by their pass D last week. Maybe they made adjustments or maybe Mertz is just terrible. We have carved up their secondary many times in recent years, but it always seems to be tough sledding on the ground. We have not run for 200 yards since 2006 against them. Ideally we would like to control the game on the ground like we did Penn State, but that might be playing towards their “somewhat strength”. Regardless I think they will try to make JJ beat them and hope for mistakes.
Last key in my mind is red zone offense. Last year we had 7 scoring drives to their 5, but theirs were all TDs and we kicked 4 FGs. We had similar issues with Penn state early. Gotta get 7 early and often and hopefully put this game away. And play for 60 minutes as they won’t go away.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:07 AM ^
Can we arrange for the Big Ten officials to stay home?
October 18th, 2022 at 9:32 AM ^
At the very least we need a background check on the official review ref.
edit. I wonder how many games in the history of college football have had a game go 7 for 7 favoring one team over the other on official reviews? 7 for 7!
October 18th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
Is it the official review ref, the official review (r)ef, or the effing official review effing ref? Asking for a friend.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
I choose C the majority of the time.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:11 AM ^
In all honesty the refs are going to play a big role in whether the game is close. If they are calling PI tight it will be a much closer game. State’s only offense is moon-balls to Reed and Coleman and our corners are, as always, good but grabby. If they are allowing contact it will be a blowout. If they are calling it tight it will be a game.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
I TRULY HONESTLY believe that if the refs don't call ticky-tack penalties, we EMBARRASS the Spartans. I think our offense is near ELITE. We have so many ways to be effective, and so many players to do it with. The defense is trending towards great too. I haven't felt - and talked - so positive about the outcome of this game since before Dantonio was the head coach.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:32 AM ^
Born and raised in the outskirts of Columbus, OH most likely.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
Being a home game I don't expect it will be so blatant! And being undefeated while they will fight to be bowl eligible I don't think we will get last years shenanigans by officials. It was so bad after the game everyone still agreed Michigan is a better team and pointed out far more happened than the overtunred stripsack fumble td!
October 18th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
It was so bad, the Big Ten admitted and apologized to Michigan for the shitty officiating.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
As long as we don't get that crew that officiated at Indiana.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
I'd prefer to avoid the Maryland crew tbh.
Indiana crew had a ROUGH day all around. Multiple blown calls against both teams.
Maryland crew only had flags for us.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
I've watched Michigan/MSU games since 1968 and in just about all of them MSU gets a very favorable whistle from the officials and it doesnt matter where the game is played (see Howard, Desmond - 2 point conversion 1990) and I think I know why.
Officials are human and I believe tend to identify and subsequently favor the school that is the most like they are. And most refs (not all) but most are working a 2nd job on weekends which isnt really the profile of students of Michigan. I think the officials see MSU as the "plucky underdog" up against the big, bad school full of snotty rich kids and I think that definitely influences the 50/50 calls as they make them.
It's been that way forever and isnt going to change next Saturday unfortunately. But most years, like this one, we have enough talent to overcome it. But it is one of the reasons these games are much closer than you'd expect and every once in a while State wins as a big underdog.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
Isn't it true that the refs typically have pretty nice jobs and are doing this for whatever various reasons humans have to get yelled at for being wrong a bunch of times?
At least with the NFL refs a bunch of them were/are attorneys, accountants, executives, etc. Hell, the head ref from the IU game has a pretty posh linkedin.
Honestly, I think MSU doesn't necessarily get a favorable whistle as much as they make this game their goddamn super bowl most years and they keep it tight, meaning the usual ref incompetence has an outsized impact. The refs in the IU game, for example, were terrible but UM also won by 20 do nobody really cared. Last year the refs were bad but instead of UM blowing that game away they let MSU hang around and so the refs blowing the fumble call, multiple DPIs on the last couple of drives, dubious catches by MSU receivers, etc. were magnified.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
Isn't it true that the refs typically have pretty nice jobs and are doing this for whatever various reasons humans have to get yelled at for being wrong a bunch of times?
Nope, not true. Average income of 63K per year with 40% working in the education field (meaning teachers for the most part). https://www.zippia.com/referee-jobs/demographics/
They definitely identify more with MSU than M.
October 18th, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^
I don't think you have any idea what goes into being a Big Ten referee. They aren't grabbing people off the street. These guys spend hours reviewing tape and working their way up the ranks. It's true that they should just be made full time, especially with so much money floating around these days, but almost all of these guys are highly educated with multiple degrees.
Let's just take Ron Snodgrass, last week's referee. He has a Ed.D and runs a prep school located on a college campus.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:52 PM ^
No Snodgrass crew!
October 18th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
2015 was a Michigan home game and that game was called more biased toward State than the 16 game at OSU.
October 18th, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^
I'll be shocked if holding gets called once against Staee. I'll be equally shocked if it doesn't get called 3 times against Mich.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:09 AM ^
This game will be stupidly tight going into the fourth quarter. Better to accept it now so you won't be annoyed when it happens in 2 weeks.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^
I have already accepted it and I still am going to be really pissed and annoyed.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
I just through my remote at the TV, just to get it out of the way early!
October 18th, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^
Its a one game season for Sparty at this point.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
It's always a one game season for them. We'll get their July drive and after that.... I am excited.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
I agree with this which is why I always get nervous for this game. The one of many things that give me confidence is our coach and players have been talking about this game since the offseason in saying a perfect season will be beating MSU and OSU in the same season. We have also circled this game for quite some time. I am pretty confident our coaches and players are not overlooking this opportunity.
Go Blue!
October 18th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
This is always true.
But it's *more* true this year. And really has been for a while. I have no idea if they spent time prepping Michigan stuff in previous weeks... but they probably did, whether that was originally the plan or not. Because nothing else they have going on matters; even theoretically achievable goals like "bowl eligibility" really depend on beating Michigan, so they have to give it everything.
Of course, the reality is that the old truism that "Michigan gets everyone's best shot" is more true this season, since we are the defending conference champions and made the playoff last year. So every team* has developed unique stuff to bring to the game and is extra motivated. So the fact that Michigan State will have its best stuff for the game isn't going to seem that unusual to the team.
*Except Iowa, whose playbook is a very raggedy xerox copy of stuff they've been running for 20 years.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:12 AM ^
I'm wary of them. I always am. I may not fear Melt Ucker, regardless of his "awesome" record of winning two coin flip games, one in an an empty stadium. And I don't get into the condescending "It's their Super Bowl" shit...but the fact of the matter is they do want to win that game more than any other, they NEVER quit just because they're down, even big (see: uh, last year, and 2016), and you can be all but certain they will have something up their sleeve. Michigan better be ready to play. I can't imagine they won't be after last year.
That said, I don't get the people acting deflated or feeling a sudden wave of dread because they beat a shitty Wisconsin team in a clown show game in overtime. I can understand the "Ughhh" feeling Michigan has known with State ever since the Dantonio years, but the fact of the matter is his teams were usually far superior to Michigan, and that's not going to be the case going foward. As for Mel, State fans love to talk about how much they sucked in 2020 and how it was such a huge deal that awful team beat Michigan, but, uh, hello, Michigan sucked too? Like, about to fire the coach terrible, remember? As for last year, well, that was a hell of a game they played, but also there is no miracle transfer Heisman-calibre RB this year. People need to relax.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
I think the Wisconsin game did change the dynamic quite a bit though. If they had dropped that game they were going to check out completely. If State had lost to Wisconsin my pick would be “Michigan by 50.” Not only did they win it but they won it in “stir up the echos” fashion. They went from checked out to dialed in.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
I see what you're saying but I disagree. If anything, it hopefully brings us back into the game mentally. If they were coming in on 5 straight losses, even the most disciplined of teams would have trouble taking them seriously. That said, I think revenge is on the minds of anyone who was on the team the last two years for sure. A couple of laughably stupid victories, followed by a whole bunch of shit talking and ring making (for some reason) has to stick in the craw. I am expecting a stupid, annoying, stressful, close 4 hours. And OF COURSE the missus invited her whole family over that day (not spartys but I can't be expected to act like a sane person on that day)!
October 18th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
Yes, that is a very good counter-point to my take. I also like that it is a prime time night game for Michigan’s mentality. Night games are “big games” even when they aren’t, so there is no doubt State will have Michigan’s full attention.
A BTN nooner would have been a hard game for Michigan to really get jacked for, IMO. And it very well could have ended up there if State had gagged it against Wisky.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^
Sounds like a post authored by someone who has not watched this series much in recent years. They NEVER check out from this game. It's almost never a blowout. Even when it "should" be.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
Um, yes, I have watched this game every year for 37 years and rewatched most of them. State typically shows up big but they have been checked out and gotten clubbed a couple times. It doesn’t happen often but there is precedent.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
I watch these highlights from Illinois clubbing WI in Camp Randall and say MSU had BETTER have beaten the Badgers in East Lansing.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
I agree with all of this. They might keep it close, but they aren’t going to beat us. When was the last time a shitty Spartan team beat a very good Michigan team? 20 years ago? In the recent history of MSU beating Michigan, those were all good Spartan teams or bad Michigan teams or both. When was the last time a .500 MSU team (which is what Sparty looks to be this year) beat a 9 or 10 win Michigan team?
October 18th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
27 years ago (11/4/1995), 7-1 Michigan lost to 4-3-1 MSU, 25-28 in EL.
Michigan finished 9-4, MSU 6-5-1
October 18th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
Yeah, a favorite talking point of theirs is "Michigan only beats us when we're down." OK, well, a few things, most of my lifetime you have been down. Your must "up" period of my lifetime, the early-to-mid Dantonio years, coincided with Michigan's worst of my lifetime, the RR/Hoke years. I will grant that I can't recall a bad Michigan team beating a good State team, but outside of the aforementioned era, there really haven't been too many BAD Michigan teams. Mediocre, sure, but not outright bad.
But they also have a delusion that bad MSU teams routinely beat good Michigan teams, and that's just not true. 1990? Maybe leading up to the game Michigan looked superior, but the two teams shared the B10 title that year with Illinois. 1993? Yeah State finished with a worse record but Michigan was still mediocre. 1995 would be one example, that was covered. 1999? Both were pretty good. 2008-10, Michigan sucked. 2011, both were pretty decent. 2013-14, Michigan sucked. 2017, shit, ended up State having the better season. 2020, both sucked.
That leaves 2001, 2015, and 2021, (and obviously State were themselves good those latter two years) and each of those involved, in one case, crazy shit, in the other two, outright bullshit (along with 1990). I will admit State brings an intensity level that creates the situation where crazy plays can change a game, but they also almost always tend to go their way for reasons neither team really controls. But Michigan does need to match their intensity, I will concede.
Lastly, there have been plenty of times in the past where Michigan has beaten State teams that were decent at the time, it's not Michigan's fault they faded after, such as 1997, 2003, 2005, even 2018, really.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^
I think SP+ has the game as UM -22 or so. I expect the Vegas line to be UM -14 or so. And I expect the game to be closer than that. On paper, MSU is not a very talented or well-coached team. But this game is their whole season now, and they will play accordingly.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
I'd be shocked if the Vegas line was anything less than three TDs. 14 would be crazy low.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
So this always intrigues me, "bad team is going to try super hard for this game" equates to a close game... why? Like what team hasn't approached their matchup against Michigan with that same level of urgency/import?
This level of analysis is on par w/ Reggie Bush picking Iowa to beat Michigan because the fans were pumped for the game...
Is there a matchup that concerns you? They can play accordingly all they like, but without the talent or the coaching, what does that mean?
October 18th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
Setting aside time for opponent-specific prep does pay some dividends — see M vs. OSU 2021.
Add to this that MSU is already in desperation mode (went for several 4th downs that they normally wouldn’t against Wisky) and you have the potential for a game closer than what pure talent would indicate.
M should still beat MSU if they are focused regardless.
Also remember that M said they were going to focus on MSU in addition to OSU this offseason - dealing with MSU was even a topic during the DC interviews. Spartan fans took this as fear and a “victory” by Tucker/MSU….. I suspect they will not like the results.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
It also seems to infer that Michigan is going to overlook MSU somehow.
Michigan is coming off of back-to-back losses against them, especially with the way last year's game went...and we think MSU will be more fired up than Michigan somehow? Like we don't think Corum and JJ will want to make up for that terrible fumbled exchange that led to MSU taking the lead last year? We dont think the defense wants to avenge being run all over and letting tempo get to them?
MSU will be fired up, no doubt.
But so will Michigan. People seem to be completely overlooking this part.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
Reed vs. Anybody concerns me. They completed like 4 impossible passes in the second half last year to even be in the game. And they had that working last Saturday.
Their red zone defense concerns me against our red zone offense, particularly with Harbaugh’s baffling tendency to bunch everything once we get inside the 10.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:57 AM ^
I'm seeing -8.5 as the line.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:38 AM ^
That's the offseason one still. As others have said this will open between 2-3 TDs. I would guess 17.5.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
I don't think this will be the case. Take both team names out of the equation and the spread is larger than 14.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:21 AM ^
According to SP+, Sparty is barely ahead of Troy, Louisville, UAB, and Marshall.
Perhaps Staee could beat Notre Dame, but I'd be shocked if this were a two-possession game. Michigan just ground PSU into a fine paste, and PSU's defensive SP+ is 43 spots better than MSU's. Also, while special teams aren't really a third of the game the way some coaches say, Michigan is #3 an MSU is #125.
Massey has this game 36-16. Sagarin has about an 18-19 point spread. (FEI isn't updated yet this week, for some reason). FPI gives about a 90% chance of a Michigan victory.
Michigan may be a better team than they were last year; if not, I don't think they've taken a huge step backwards. Meanwhile, MSU is quite obviously much worse than they were last year, and this game is in Ann Arbor.
This feels like 2019's 44-10 all over again.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
I honestly think it'll be very similar score as PSU but they will actually earn their 17 points because of their "Super Bowl" yada yada
MSU reminds me of a poor man's PSU but with a much worse secondary. I see JJ with 200 yards, 2 TDs and the running backs + JJ getting 300 yards and another 3 TDs
October 18th, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
This is exactly right.
Why I have the same fight with Michigan fans EVERY SINGLE YEAR that it won't be easy absolutely baffles me. When has this game EVER been easy? 2019? 2006? Yeah that's about it this whole century.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:15 AM ^
If they load the box , JJ is going to destroy their secondary
October 18th, 2022 at 9:38 AM ^
They will load the box. They always do and this year in particular they need to.
Open it up Harbaugh and let JJ go to town on that God awful secondary.
MSUs only chance on offense is to hit some deep shots, especially to Reed. I would have a spy for Thorne and try to have help over the top with Reed. Thorn will throw at least four fades to Reed. We could easily bait them and get a safety pick.
Seriously, they can’t run the ball. We should blow this team out and I think Harbaugh wants to beat them by 50 for the injustice of last year and all the Tuck chatter.
This is game needs to cement the Tuck narrative that he is in over his head vs he is the savior.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
I think we should blow them out. 44-17 or something along those lines.
However, "should" has never won a ballgame. I won't be surprised if it's a game in the 4th. But I think we win either way.