Let's look at the remaining MMB schedule
Michigan (17-11/7-8conference)
We are currently 4-3 at home in B10 play and 3 -5 on the road
home v Wisconsin (19-6 / 9-4)
- remaining schedule PSU-today, at M-Wed, NW-Sun, @ Purdue-Thur, @ OSU-Sun
- The Badgers 2-4 on the road in B10 play
- road losses include Illinois, Purdue, MSU, and Penn State
- road wins were at Northwestern and Iowa
@ Minnesota (17-9 / 6-8)
- remaining schedule: MSU-Tue, Michigan-Sat, @NU-Wed, PSU-Sun
- Gophers are 4 - 2 at home in conference play
- home wins came against Indiana, Purdue, Iowa and Northwestern
- home losses were to tsio and Illinois
home vs Sparticus (15-11 / 7-7)
- remaining schedule: @Minnesota-Tue, Purdue-Sun, Iowa-Wed, @Michigan-Sat
- Sparty is 1 - 6 on the road in conference play
- their lone conference road win was against Northwestern
- road losses include PSU, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State
There's a log jam in the middle of the conference standings:
Illinois 7-7 / 17-10
Michigan State College 7-7 / 15-11
Penn State 7-7 / 14-11
Michigan 17-11 / 7-8
Minnesota 6-8 / 17-9
Northwestern 6-9 / 16-10 (Long shot to make the tourney but with games against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, could have a say in who dances).
In my opinion, this season is coming down to that last game against Michigan State in Ann Arbor. We're both bubble teams with MSU getting a slight nod for having a tougher SOS and for being a tournament darling. They'll be looking to avenge the loss on their home court that broke their most coveted streak/claim. Plus, they want to keep that NCAA tourney streak alive. If the tourney streak ends....<gasp>......Sparty will be left with just two coherent sentences to regurgitate:
- We still beat your ass in football 3 years in a row
- Where'd you go to school?
And when #1 gets broke off in their whore mouth this fall, well...... my regrets to all you great fans who have supported the teams throughout the years despite not attending this fine institution. Which brings up another point? Based on Sparty knowledge, none of you should ever root for the Lions, Tigers, or Pistons since I assume none of you played for those teams. You're all a bunch of bandwagoners. Guh.
Can't wait for March 5th.
Let's Go Blue!
February 20th, 2011 at 1:29 PM ^
And there is no doubt.
Other than that...there are no guarantees.
Go Blue!
February 20th, 2011 at 1:39 PM ^
I think we can "afford" to lose the Wisconsin game, but I believe it will take winning the other two to go dancing. Or somehow cracking some big skulls in the Big Ten tourney.
February 20th, 2011 at 1:46 PM ^
I don't think they can get in without beating Wisconsin unless they make a huge run in the Big 10 tourney.
As of now, they have 2 top 50 RPI wins. If they beat Minny and MSU, they might have as many as 4 or as few as 1, depending on how things shake out. And they'll have 0 wins over RPI top 25. I'm just not sure that's good enough. And I don't think the Committee will give a crap that we've gone 9-9 in the Big 10 or have finished like 5th in the conference. I don't think they look at things that way.
February 20th, 2011 at 4:10 PM ^
Home losses are significantly worse for your RPI - and perception in general - than road losses, and we really need a signature win. I think we really need the game on Wednesday. We can win it UW is not that great away from home. A team playing for its tourney life should be able to find a way to win that one.
Minnesota is the one that I think we can most afford to lose. We're 4-5 on the road this season, which is solid.
February 20th, 2011 at 9:04 PM ^
Michigan can afford to lose vs Wisco, but only if they paid the bubble back with a win at Minnesota in the next game.
I just think 2-1 in any form down the stretch here puts them in a real good position heading into the league sectional. Of course, what happens on the rest of the bubble is as paramount. Michigan could stand to see some other teams gack a bit while they go 2-1 the next two weeks.
Va Tech, Baylor, Wassau and Okie State helped out this weekend. As did both Missouri Valley contenders by losing in the Bracket Buster event. It was looking like a 2-bid year out of the MVC, but not anymore.
Nebraska winning was not good
February 20th, 2011 at 1:42 PM ^
Answers to Spartina responses:
1) We still beat your ass in football 3 years in a row.
A: What's said above about bandwagoning
B: Yeah, so did the rest of the Big Ten. Remember when you guys had John L. Smith? /endconversation
2) Where'd you go to school?
A: Michigan, but did you see that recent Detroit News survey that showed the Spartans have as many fans that didn't attend MSU, as Michigan has that didn't attend U of M?
B: (Insert other college), but did you see that recent Detroit News survey that showed the Spartans have as many fans that didn't attend MSU, as Michigan has that didn't attend U of M?
February 20th, 2011 at 1:52 PM ^
You'd better hope that Brian doesn't see the S-word.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:14 PM ^
MSU's recruiting advantage has for some time been the availability of really hot, really dumb co-eds. This advantage is going to disappear when daughters, fathers and brothers come to understand how women are viewed and treated at MSU. Just as an example, I give you the RCMB
http://michiganstate.247sports.com/Board/93/Rape-protest-fail-1160599/1
February 20th, 2011 at 1:40 PM ^
But, when did the marching band start playng these games??
Just kidding.
In all seriousness, I didn't realize that Wisconsin and MSU have been so poor on the road this year. I'm not sure I read it, but I saw earlier that in Big Ten games this season, the road team was, at that point, like 4-14. Those numbers (Wisconsin and MSU) really demonstrate that pretty well.
Those two Penn State wins by us are looking pretty good so far, no matter what the Free Press says.
I also like the little jab at MSU, with Michigan State College.
February 20th, 2011 at 1:43 PM ^
MMB = Michigan Marching Band. I believe the acronym you were looking for was MBB (Men's Basketball).
Edit: Beaten to it by 3 minutes.
February 20th, 2011 at 1:46 PM ^
I'm not getting my hopes up for making the dance, although from a conference standpoint it appears we are right at the doorstep.
Bracketology is currently predicting that 6 Big Ten teams will make the tourney.
Locks: OSU, Purdue, WIscy
Highly Likely: Illinois
Bubble: Minnesota, MSU, Michigan
I am eliminating PSU and NW from this list because I think they are out barring a deep BT tourney run.
Most predictions have Minnesota and MSU getting in over us right now, so we basically have 3 games and the BT tourney to change their minds. Its in our hands, especially considering we have games against both those teams to close out the regular season.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:02 PM ^
If we have a similar record and similar strength of schedule, and are 2-0 against MSU, you've got to imagine we get the nod.
Any prediction we read over the next two weeks will be made with the anticipation of us winning or losing those games.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:29 PM ^
I think that we're certainly on the cusp of making it right now - just barely, mind you, although there are still more wins to be had, of course. I would say that we need at least 2 of the last 3 games in the "W" column, and then we need to make at least a respectable showing in the Big Ten Tournament.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^
Winning the rest of our conference games only gets us on the bubble. Right now, we're not in most experts conversation.
February 20th, 2011 at 3:03 PM ^
on weds would change that. Just because you don't see us on the last four out or next four out doesn't mean we aren't close. If we win 2 out of our last 3 that puts us directly on the bubble. If one of those wins is Wis that probably puts us on the favorable side of the bubble. If we win our last three I think you could barely consider us on the bubble. 5 road conference wins, 4 wins against top 50, a 9-2 record in our last 11 and a 10-8 conference record. That's a damn good resume if we are considered a bubble team at that point.
Those bracketology experts are pretty accurate (as they should be, all it is is looking at resumes. not as difficult as people make it out to be), but keep in mind those brackets are only predicting how the tourament outlook is today. They aren't predicting what things look like on selection sunday.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:17 PM ^
February 20th, 2011 at 2:25 PM ^
I don't parade around with the WW accusation, so don't feel the need to defend yourself from me.
Neverthless. . .
Professional sports teams and academic institutions are fundamentally different, so the analogy doesn't work. You don't have to apply and be accepted based on your merits to live in the state of Michigan and root for the Tigers, and no one will turn you down. In other words, there's no merits to be judged when adopting a pro sports team - it's all mere geography, where you happen to live (which very well may be by accident - e.g., where your parents live, or where you could get a job).
Contrarily, a university judges and discriminates - it's all merits, it CAN turn you down if you don't pass muster. It's a statement of your merits to say that you are a Spartan or a Wolverine, or Eagle, Chip, Bronco, or whatever else - your previous academic accomplishments got you there, your hard work got you through.
So I'd politely ask that you please come up with a more persuasive response than "under this logic, you can't root for the lions." A better response in my view might be, "I don't give a shit what you think; I'll align my allegiances as I please."
February 20th, 2011 at 2:32 PM ^
Our performance in the counference tourney could bump us up or down if we finish the season on the bubble.
If we finish the season 0-3, we are out unless we win the Big Ten Tournament.
1-2 in our remaining games, plus 2 wins in the tourney (the second win would be a neutral site win against a quality team) could get us in.
2-1 in our remaining games, plus a first-round loss to a low-seeded team at the tourney could bump us out.
If we finish 3-0, we are probably in, regardless of the tourney.
February 20th, 2011 at 2:43 PM ^
And when #1 gets broke off in their whore mouth this fall
oh lawdy the image. +1 just for that line
February 20th, 2011 at 3:02 PM ^
Michigan Marching Band?
February 20th, 2011 at 6:41 PM ^
Yeah, there's no way they're beating Wiscy and Minnesota. Potentially MSU with their weak horn section, but I don't see us competing agains the mighty Badger and Gopher woodwinds. Sorry to be a Debby Downer, but that's just how I see it.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:46 PM ^
Michigan Masket Ball
February 20th, 2011 at 3:11 PM ^
let's go inside the mind of a Greg Jennings
February 20th, 2011 at 3:24 PM ^
he put the team on his back doo
February 20th, 2011 at 9:06 PM ^
Uh oh, its DARREN SHAWPAH
February 20th, 2011 at 3:30 PM ^
Win 2/3 and I think were going to the tournament. Otherwise, NIT it is.
February 20th, 2011 at 3:37 PM ^
You're right. Izzo's name alone might be enough to get Sparty to the tournament despite all those losses. If we don't make it, I'll live because our young team has far past my expectations. But seeing Sparty still go will hurt when you look at how we compared against certain teams.
1. @ Syracuse
*MICHIGAN: Lost by 3 (Atlantic City)
*MSU: Lost by 14 (Madison Square Garden)
2. Oakland
*MICHIGAN: Won by 19
*MSU: Won by 1
3. @ Penn State
*MICHIGAN: Won by 3
*MSU: Lost by 4
4. @ Iowa
*MICHIGAN: Won by 3
*MSU: Lost by 20
5. @ Illinois
*MICHIGAN: Lost by 2
*MSU: Lost by 10
6. @ Wisconsin
*MICHIGAN: Lost by 16
*MSU: Lost by 26
7. Home against Northwestern
*MICHIGAN: Won by 9
*MSU: Won by 4
8. Home against Indiana
*MICHIGAN: Won by 4 (With about 100 missed FT's)
*MSU: Won by 1 in Overtime
Sparty's advantages over us are beating Minnesota at home while we lost at home to Minnesota. And they escaped at Northwestern by 3 while we played like crap at Northwestern. Our 19 point loss @ Indiana is probably our worst loss of the season to a GOD awful opponent. But it's no worse than MSU's 20 point loss at Iowa.
Sparty's strength of schedule is talked about non-stop as proof they belong in the tournament. But they were 0-4 against Duke, UConn, Texas and Syracuse. They do have a 5 point win over 18-8 Washington, though.
Our game against Wisconsin is our last chance to have a win over a "relevant" team. And the final home game against MSU will be bigger than it's been in a looooong time. If we sweep the series, that will say something. If we lose that game, our win at Breslin will be all but forgotten by the tournament committee.
February 20th, 2011 at 3:45 PM ^
in some respects we need to win all 3 games, tho i think 2 gets us in.
1. We need a signature win - Wisconsin
2. If we lose to MSU, we fall behind them in the standings. Beat them and they are eliminated. they can't take msu over um, if um beats them twice with basically same record.
3. If we lose to Minn, we would have lost both to them. See #2 above.
i think 5 big 10 teams go. the top 3 are obvious. the next 2 come from, illinois, minn, msu, um, penn st (we beat them twice tho), northwestern (long shot).
February 20th, 2011 at 4:07 PM ^
I dont know how the rest of you feel but the configuration of Minnesota's floor has given us trouble in the past. Here is hoping the freshmen feel comfortable on that thing.
February 20th, 2011 at 4:13 PM ^
It has, although we've actually won there the last two times. Beilein is 4-1 against them the past three seasons.
February 20th, 2011 at 6:06 PM ^
The opportunity is there for us. A tourney-caliber team should have a decent chance in all three of these games. Plus, we have ample rest before the two home games. We'll find out what we're made of. FWIW, Real Time RPI now projects us to beat Wisconsin and MSU:
February 20th, 2011 at 9:16 PM ^
I actually think Michigan might be favored on Wednesday against the Badgers. Dont forget, for some reason in the middle of February last season, the Wolverines were -1 against the Badgers.
At 15-8 ATS, the Wolverines have been one of the best teams against the spot all year. And, they're red hot right now. The wiseguys have always loved Beilein's teams. I think Michigan might be -2 come Wednesday.
And if they pull it off and dont enter the MSU game on a two-game skid, expect them to be -2 or -3 in that one as well.
February 21st, 2011 at 9:43 AM ^
Given how Minnesota has been playing, I almost think that the @ Minnesota game may be the most winnable of our final 3. It's just really rare for us to look good against Wisconsin, I hope this is the week we turn it around. MSU has been playing a little better and will be looking for revenge; I think we're going to be in every game it's just going to be a matter of finishing these games in the 2nd half.
February 21st, 2011 at 12:00 AM ^
has been very busy. I have no time for MSU.