Latest Kiper mock draft: Hutchinson #1
Paywalled so just one note and the big ten players listed.
1. Jacksonville: Aidan Hutchinson b/c they just franchise tagged Cam Robinson and their other big need is at tackle
2. Detroit: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
8. Atlanta: Garrett Wilson, WR, osu
14. Baltimore: Tyler Lindenbaum, C, Iowa
16. Philadelphia: Chris Olave, WR, osu
25. Buffalo: Jahan Dotson, WR, psu
30. KC: George Karlaftis, Purdue, DE. Fell way more than I thought. Also mentioned that he originally had Ojabo here, but dropped him to the second round following the injury.
32. Detroit: Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
At least Urban Meyer won't be there.
You mean the moron coach that said "who is this #99 guy on the Rams? he could be a problem for us".
Painfully this could cost the Lions the chance at Aiden as Jacksonville was better than their record. This fucker will never get another job outside of Columbus Ohio.
I haven’t been following the draft too deep. Why has Karlaftis dropped?
Sucks so much for Ojabo. The difference between being drafted 10th overall vs end of the 1st rd alone is around 6-7 million in guaranteed money. Even if he was expected to be drafted mid-to-late 1st, he’s probably still set to lose at least a few million. Obviously this happened after the season, but it’s just another example of why so many guys don’t play in bowl games anymore.
Meh. You make the real money on your second contract so it’s still up to Ojabo. Still feel you on the immediate loss but he’s still poised to be a millionaire.
NFL stands for Not For Long. There’s no guarantee he gets a second contract. No telling how this injury affects him and if he suffers another devastating injury that implicates his football playing future. Losing a few million in guaranteed money on that first contract can still be huge
man if only he had bought more bitcoin and nfts he'd be fine
March 24th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
I'm pretty sure most of these anticipated high draft picks get insurance for just such an issue too. Now, I don't know that Ojabo did, nor do I know if he will get paid anything from it if he did buy insurance.
As a Lions fan I'm hoping they grab him in the late rounds figuring they can put him on reserve for a year. Isn't like this year is the year they suddenly get better. Not with that QB or a rookie like Corrall.
Wonder if he took an insurance policy out for himself like other potential first rounders do in case of injury.
that would be so detroit to take a safety 2. stoooooopid.
That was the first thing I thought too, but then I read the article. Hamilton is there because Kiper thinks he is the second best player in the draft. He doesn't mention the Lions or their needs at all.
Didn't read the article, but the title says based on team need. It really would be so Lions. 3 consecutive years picking a WR in the top 10, multiple TE's in the top 10, and now a Safety at 2 would be icing on the cake.
Todd McShay has the Lions taking Hamilton also, fwiw
March 24th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
I understand your point; that's what I thought when my Steelers drafted Troy Polamalu instead of the CB we all knew they needed. Point being the offense can't game plan away from a great safety. He can disrupt things in so many ways.
However, #2 is high for a safety. I agree with the idea to trade down, and maybe look for Dax Hill late in the first round or early in the second.
March 24th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
You don't want your team to take the player who may very well end up having been the best player in this draft?
IMO, these pre-draft player ratings are about as accurate as star ratings for recruiting. That is to say, they tell you something about the rough talent level of a player. So IMO, taking someone like Hamilton who plays A) a far less important position b) is not a position of need relatively speaking for the Lions when there are other player in the neighborhood of the same talent level is just silly.
To be clear, I think the difference between the 1st guy taken and the 10th guy taken is often not that huge. The difference between 1st and 60th is often large. Looking through draft lists for the last 30 years, the frequency of finding guys who didn't ever start in the first 15 players is low, but it's pretty frequent to find guys who weren't good starters. In the second round, you find more guys who didn't start, ever. Less guys that were good starters. Continue modifying those as you go to subsequent rounds.
That's what pre-draft lists mean IMO. So I tend to not be a big fan of "best player available", because again, figuring out who the "best player" is can be nearly impossible. OTOH, knowing what you need is way more doable.
You can say that about any player. Personally I think Hamilton might be the 4th or 5th best safety in the draft. I wouldn't take him at pick 32 let alone 2.
As a Lions fan, I hate this draft. Hamilton is so overrated.
Suggestion: Shift your perspective. As long as the Fords are in charge, the Lions are going to screw up something. It's interesting to see the variation year-to-year.
March 24th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
To Hell with Notre Dame!
No worries, if the Lions want a safety that bad they'll wait to the end of the first round and take Dax @ 32.
I see Kayvon or Travon @ #2 as their DL is shit. If they have a hard on for Pickett then they'll take that gamble being in rebuild mode. If Hutch is going #1 the best option IMO is to trade out of #2 hole. I find it intriguing being in the middle of a rebuild that they could take Ojabo given they have time to wait on him and get him at a bargain in rounds 2 or 3.
i think your comment about 'trading out of the #2' hole is spot on. get some draft picks and find some talent in multiples. i don't see the superstar that fills the perfect need at #2 for the lions.
and unpopular (and hopefully incorrect) opinion: as much as i love ojabo, i think he will drop a lot further in the draft than the 2nd round or even the 3rd round. great kid but that achilles rupture is bad ju-ju.
I agree with trading back but not too far. I don't want them to fall out of the top six if they can avoid it. Still have a good shot at Thibodeaux in that range. I want them to take a top tier edge rusher in this draft. They need one badly.
As for the pick at the back end of the first? Lots of options. It's difficult to say who they should take cuz we have no idea who could be available. A safety is a good idea of Dax is available. Also if a top WR falls that could be good too. The only QB I like in that range is Sam Howell and they could wait till pick 34 to take a QB. The fifth year option everyone keeps talking about isn't a big deal to me. You should know how good your QB is before his fifth year and he's going to be demanding an extension in year 3 or 4 if he's that good.
March 24th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
Your comment about Ojabo is spot on. I don't see him going any earlier than the 4th or 5th. How many teams are going to spend any early pick on a guy they know won't play this year?
Given it's an achilles who knows what he will be like when he comes back. Not to mention achilles come in pairs along with ruptures.
March 24th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
That's what I'm thinking Va. The Jets, Giants, and Eagles should be on Brad Holmes speed dial.
March 24th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
Who is anyone going to trade up for in this draft? Easier said than done.
This is the point where the so called "expert" mock drafts get heavily influenced by what they're hearing from teams. Apparently, Jacksonville is not keeping information on their board in house very well as everyone at CBS also has Hutch as #1:
Kyle Hamilton will be a bust that high.
March 24th, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
Agree. TRADE DOWN if hutch is gone.
March 24th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
If Hutch is #1 overall, the Lions need to trade down. There's a franchise LT available, and a few teams have multiple first-round picks.
March 24th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
1. Jacksonville: Aidan Hutchinson b/c they just franchise tagged Cam Robinson and their other big need is at tackle
?
March 24th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Well, things change quickly in the NFL. Jacksonville decided to franchise tag left tackle Cam Robinson for the second straight year, taking away its need for a top-tier blindside protector (at least for a year) for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Now, Hutchinson is the heavy favorite to go to the Jags -- barring a desperate team trading up.
Kiper's post is very poorly worded, but I think he means, their two big needs are edge and tackle, and they locked up the tackle using the franchise tag.
Just putting "was at tackle" would have fixed it.
Locked up the tackle for 1 year. That's what a franchise tag does.
March 24th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
There goes my prediction of Detroit making the playoffs. Hamilton at 2 sucks. Trade down.
March 24th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
The Lions should trade out of the #2 pick, even if they give up some value on the chart. It's high for a safety, Thibodeaux feels risky, and I don't think Walker is worthy at that spot. Someone will want an OT or a QB, or even love Kayvon, and I'd trade out if possible.
The guys we really want are at the 10+ picks...Lloyd, London, Jermaine Johnson, Wilson, Dean, Cine, Karlaftis, Olave...those are some of my favorite 1st-rounders for the Lions and they are not top-10 guys. Walker could fall past 10.
I disagree with the "don't trade back too far" crowd. I'd rather have more picks in this super deep draft than higher picks. This draft has plenty of Edge, LB, S, and WR prospects (all of which Detroit needs) and the QBs are round two values. Guys like Mafe, Ebiketie, Dotson, Moore, Chenal, Hill, Bonitto, Brisker, Pitre, Ridder, Corral, Muma, Andersen, Asamoah, Brandon Smith, Metchie, Joseph, Paschal, Pierce, Shakir, Austin, Cross, Doubs, and even Carson Strong are all good picks for the Lions and can be had in rounds two and three, some maybe later.
Then you can go into round four and beyond looking for gems like Malone, McCollum, Bell, Robinson, Sam Williams (though some have him much higher), Velus Jones, Philips, Melton, McFadden, Woods, Weatherford, Zappe, Coan, Clemons, Thomas...
I'd be looking to add mid-late 1st-rounders, 2nd-rounders, and 3rd-rounders. Even early fourth-round picks will yield good value in this draft. You can build a team with those guys.
March 24th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
Trouble is you need a second team in which to trade. Whose trading up when, as you mention, there is plenty of depth in this class? Leave it to the Lions to have a top draft pick in a year when it doesn't matter. Oh well, they'll likely be in the same position again the next year, and the year after, and the year after that....
In fairness, they have high draft picks a lot.
True! There are some great OTs that I believe some teams will covet. And, as I said, I wouldn't worry too much about getting a great deal--there is tremendous value in this draft that changes the calculus of the typical draft value chart.
The focus should be on what we can get in return in THIS draft, not a hypothetical draft. We could even add an impact player or two.
To answer your question directly, I see potential partners:
- Houston moving up one spot to get the OT they want. Should net us at least a 2nd-rounder and an additional pick/player
- NYJ moving up two spots to get Thibodeaux or an OT
- NYG moving up for their OT
- Carolina reaching for a QB
Beyond that, it's just guessing. The truth is that we don't know who teams love, and who they don't. But I'd happily trade all the way down to pick 17 in this draft to add more picks.
Why would Houston move up a spot to take a guy that we aren’t a threat to take?
Your others are plausible, but unless Houston knows one of the New York teams are putting an offer out there, they have no reason to trade up a spot. Is Houston privy to that kind of information?
March 25th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
Because they know someone else can trade into the spot.
Someone else “can” trade into any spot. Doesn’t mean teams throw out trade offers to move up 1 spot.
That would be dumb to throw out a huge offer to move up 1 spot based on the fact that someone “can” trade into that spot, only to find out you were the only jackass to put in a trade offer.
March 24th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
If you like being your own GM and going through an NFL draft this is a very fun and easy simulator tool.
That one is good. I think this one is better (the PFF version).
March 24th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
Makes sense. Glad Urban is gone from there.
March 24th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^
If Hutchinson is gone, the Lions absolutely have to trade down. There's no one worthy of the #2 pick.
March 24th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
The Lions are NOT drafting a QB this year. Book it. This QB class is sub par and with Stroud, JJ, and Bryce Young coming up this is NOT the year to get a QB.
Although I think Mel is a tool propped up by ESPN shoving him down our throat I would take most of his draft. No Hamilton at 2 because, based upon this draft, Dax Hill will be available at 32 and then they can come back with Ojabo at 34. That would be fantastic, I'd take Walker or Davis from UGA at #2 (I know both would be considered "reaches", but they can both play)
Not sure who the Lions will take at 2, but with Hutch seemingly head to JAX that leaves them in a slight bind. No one really 'worthy' of the #2 pick and no QB to dangle as trade bait.
March 24th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
"1. Jacksonville: Aidan Hutchinson b/c they just franchise tagged Cam Robinson and their other big need is at tackle"
If their other big need is a tackle, then why not take Evan Neal, who happens to be a tackle?
Wrote at 5am PT so a little tired. Need was at offensive tackle and tying up Robinson with a franchise tag for a year removes that as an immediate need.