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Latest ESPN Bracketology

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:07 PM
#1
cps2010
Joined: 08/08/2009
MGoPoints: 3750
Latest ESPN Bracketology

Lunardi has us as a #3 seed in a region facing #14 seed Montanta and possible match-ups with #6 VCU, #2 Miami (FL), and #1 Gonzaga.

Yes, please.

Too bad Lunardi is terrible at seeds and match-ups, b/c if that's the draw, we're going to the Final Four.

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:09 PM | I don't want to play VCU at (Score:5 Normal)
flysociety3
flysociety3's picture
Joined: 05/10/2009
MGoPoints: 661

I don't want to play VCU at all..

And, Miami has some great size, and we don't at all...

 

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:20 PM | If we did get matched up with (Score:2 Normal)
TWSWBC
TWSWBC's picture
Joined: 01/27/2011
MGoPoints: 892

If we did get matched up with VCU, I would hope we see Spike and Trey on the floor together. If we can get the ball past the first 2 guys on their press, it's a layup line

If I tell you it's Easter, you better start looking for eggs.

Some folks call it a sling blade, I call it a kaiser blade.

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:25 PM | "...it's a layup line" (Score:3 Normal)
Don
Don's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 19380

Considering the alarmingly large number of bunny layups we've missed this season, that's not necessarily a comforting thought.


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March 11th, 2013 at 12:37 PM | i actually realy like it when (Score:2)
roosterbaan
roosterbaan's picture
Joined: 09/24/2012
MGoPoints: 173

i actually realy like it when trey and spike are on the floor together. i think spike is great to have as hybrid pg-shooting guard. while trey is clearly superior, spike is entirely looking to distribute when he has the ball and is a solid shooter (nailed a clutch 3 in the corner). plus, it takes the pressure off burke from bringing the ball up the floor so much. i wish we could experiment more with that lineup, but it is a bit late to tinker with things i guess...

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March 11th, 2013 at 2:08 PM | At first I hated the idea of (Score:2)
MGoRossGrad
MGoRossGrad's picture
Joined: 11/18/2012
MGoPoints: 131

At first I hated the idea of Spike and Trey on the floor at the same time, because I figured if we were gonna trot out Spike, at least use his minutes to give Trey a rest. 

However, the system does run more smoothly, I think, because Trey gets more open looks when Spike drives.  I think the only downside is that Trey gets no rest on the offensive end when he doesn't have the ball in his hands.  Usually he can catch his breath a little bit if he's running the point, but with Spike running it, he's cutting and back screening and running all over the place.  I wonder what that does, if anything, to his stamina late in the game.

Hail. 

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March 11th, 2013 at 4:56 PM | I'm tired of hearing how good (Score:2)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29060

I'm tired of hearing how good VCU is.  They have seven losses whlle playing in a mediocre conference.  They had a miracle run two years but that alone doesn't make them the Boise State of basketball.

 

 

 

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:11 PM | Miami (Score:2 Normal)
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2854

is good.  They might average 2.7 offensive rebounds per trip against us.  I like the rest of the bracket, but Miami is not a pushover by any stretch of the imagination.

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:16 PM | Jerry Palm's Bracket.... (Score:2)
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8940

Jerry Palm has us as the #2 and playing Vermont in Auburn Hills and then the winner of Temple / Notre Dame. Getting through that, we would then face whoever survived Oklahoma State / Boise State and Arizona / Montana over in Salt Lake City. 

Looking at Lunardi's bracket, I have to say that I prefer Jerry's road if it meant potentially avoiding VCU.

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:39 PM | Jerry Palm's bracket (Score:1)
M_Jason_M
M_Jason_M's picture
Joined: 01/09/2013
MGoPoints: 314

Wow...I love that one. There's not a single team in that one that I don't think Michigan could beat. Gonzaga as the one doesn't scare me and Arizona doesn't seem like too bad of a potential sweet 16 matchup. Too bad that bracket most likely won't work out.

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:16 PM | Wow if true the Gonzaga (Score:1 Trolling)
mGrowOld
mGrowOld's picture
Joined: 10/04/2010
MGoPoints: 13226

Wow if true the Gonzaga bracket went from "worst to first" on the tough-o-meter.  Anybody thinking we'd walk through that gauntlet of fire is crazy (no offense OP) and I honestly cannot think of a more terrrible match-up for us than Miami right now.  If you havent seen them picture MSU with more size and a few actual shooters.  They are beasts.

 

 

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:23 PM | Yea I want no part of Miami (Score:2)
Michael Scarn
Michael Scarn's picture
Joined: 01/21/2011
MGoPoints: 1229

Yea I want no part of Miami (full disclosure, I went there for undergrad).  Several scorers, big time athletes, and size that they can bully with (Reggie Johnson is Chris Bryant sized (or maybe Wormley - someone tall and large) but has a soft touch and can finish).  Plus, perhaps the biggest disadvantage for Michigan is Miami's age - they're chalk full of veterans.

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:36 PM | I don't know (Score:1)
woodfeld
Joined: 07/31/2008
MGoPoints: 62

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Miami is the best option out of the #2 seeds Lunardi has here.  I wouldn't want to face OSU for obvious reasons (Craft), Kansas has the #5 Kenpom rated defense and has Withey, G'town has the #3 Kenpom rated defense and has 6'8" Big East player of the year Otto Porter.  Every time UM faces a top 10 defense (OSU, MSU, Wisco), the offense barely looks better than their horrendous defense.  While Miami still has a solid defense (#18 in Kenpom's D ratings), that's basically on par with Indiana (ranked #13) and we didn't struggle to score much against them either time.  I'm terrified of UM facing any team with an elite D.

But let's face it, UM is going to get an extremely tough matchup in a hypothetical chalk sweet 16 opponent regardless.

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:22 PM | if that's the draw, we're going to the Final Four. (Score:3 Normal)
Don
Don's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 19380

Just a suggestion: don't bet either your literal or figurative house on that proposition.


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March 11th, 2013 at 12:22 PM | Doubt (Score:0 Trolling)
umfan323
Joined: 01/19/2011
MGoPoints: 253

I don't see us making it past the sweet 16

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:40 PM | well, first off, we won't be (Score:2)
roosterbaan
roosterbaan's picture
Joined: 09/24/2012
MGoPoints: 173

well, first off, we won't be playing games in the big ten, and we are undefeated against non-big ten teams. secondly, we are a pretty damn good neutral court team, going undefeated in our preseason tourneys. thirdly, i can pray that non-big ten refs actually follow the rulebook and are at least a tiny bit more consistent. so i think if we get the right draw, we could make a great run. 

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:25 PM | If that turned out to be (Score:2)
Michael Scarn
Michael Scarn's picture
Joined: 01/21/2011
MGoPoints: 1229

If that turned out to be MSU's bracket, they would have a cake walk to the elite eight (at least for a 3 seed). 

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:32 PM | Struggling to see what you (Score:0 Trolling)
michfan6060
michfan6060's picture
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 1247

Struggling to see what you have seen in the last part of the season that leads you to believe we would be a lock to make the final four in any bracket...

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.

- Vince Lombardi

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:40 PM | I don't think our matchups are going to differ greatly (Score:1)
TaiStreetsMyHero
TaiStreetsMyHero's picture
Joined: 08/08/2012
MGoPoints: 768

with different brackets. Here's scouting report for every round

First Round: Would only lose if random no-name team gets on fire.

Second Round: Will have to handle pressure that solid mid major team brings, or contain size of raw big men that underperforming major conference team brings

Sweet 16: Will have to shoot lights out and use all of our energy and more to defend against elite size that every legitimate contender has (except for us, because we don't run a 2 big system).

Elite 8: Same as last

Final 4: Same as last

Champ: Same as last

I do it for my love of the Streets

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:40 PM | Would love to be in that (Score:1)
Cam57
Joined: 11/09/2010
MGoPoints: 257

Would love to be in that region in general. Other than the travel, the opponents are not quite as daunting as the stretch we have had over the last month or so. I think seeing some new jerseys on the opposing side could be refreshing and a slight confidence boosts to the team.



Question. What do you think has to happen in the BTT to remain a 3 seed or in that region? How high can we climb?

"We need to realize what we need to do every time we come out to play," It can't just be some half-assed work ethic. It needs to be fuckin' full out every play, every down, every game." -Dave Molk

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March 11th, 2013 at 1:23 PM | I read this morning, I think (Score:2)
Drunk Uncle
Drunk Uncle's picture
Joined: 01/14/2013
MGoPoints: 140

I read this morning, I think on SI.com, that Michigan could get a #1 seed if they win the BTT.

It might be a stretch, but if Michigan does win the BTT it could potentially be against some impressive teams with high NCAA seedings: #4/#5 Wisky, #1 Indiana, #2 OSU.  

 

Beer me 5:30

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March 11th, 2013 at 12:54 PM | I am just happy we are still a 3 seed. (Score:1)
Cali Wolverine
Cali Wolverine's picture
Joined: 01/13/2013
MGoPoints: 489

I am just happy we are still a 3 seed.

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March 11th, 2013 at 1:01 PM | I'm curious as to what you've (Score:1)
russale2012
russale2012's picture
Joined: 11/30/2011
MGoPoints: 2793

I'm curious as to what you've seen in the last month that convinces you we're a lock for the Final Four in any bracket. If you can't play defense and can't rebound well, you're not going to beat ANYONE in the tournament, whether its Duke or Northwestern Central Montana A&M.



Brady Hoke: Kicking Ass And Signing Names On The Recruiting Trail

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March 11th, 2013 at 1:23 PM | They played excellent defense.... (Score:1)
Bosch
Bosch's picture
Joined: 04/03/2009
MGoPoints: 4297

yesterday.  They just gave Indiana 4 or 5 chances every possession.

All right Lemmings. Bring the heat.

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March 11th, 2013 at 3:30 PM | Then I'd argue that's not (Score:2)
Soulfire21
Soulfire21's picture
Joined: 03/18/2010
MGoPoints: 3191

Then I'd argue that's not good defense. 

But I think I know what you mean.  We did play pretty decent defense, right up until the ball was in the air.  Then we ran away from it as if we were scared of rebounding.

HAIL.

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March 11th, 2013 at 1:13 PM | Aside from the meltdow at the (Score:2)
mgoknight
Joined: 08/27/2012
MGoPoints: 16

Aside from the meltdow at the end of the game yesterday, thats the best UM has played in about a month-month and a half. If they play like that in the big ten tourney, I like our chances of bumping up to a #2 seed. I think #1 is completely out of the question at this point, although leaving KU at #2 after getting crushed this weekend is perplexing so who knows. Again, the defensive intensity and effort yesterday was the best its been all year by a lot. We missed quite a few bunnies (and FT's...argh!!!). So again, aside from the last few minutes, we went toe-to-toe with one of, if not the best, team in the country and had every opportunity to win. Keep things in perspective...

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March 11th, 2013 at 1:18 PM | Miami? (Score:2)
My name ... is Tim
My name ... is Tim's picture
Joined: 12/20/2008
MGoPoints: 1126

I would be petrified of playing Miami in the Sweet 16. To me, they look like a much better team than Duke - who they killed at home and lost to by the slimmest of margins during Ryan Kelly's greatest game this year by a human. They are athletic and a matchup nightmare offensively - I would frankly rather be in a bracket with Indiana or Florida than Miami.

"Nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours."

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March 11th, 2013 at 1:47 PM | They're better than Duke but (Score:2)
MaizeAndBlueWahoo
MaizeAndBlueWahoo's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 11914

They're better than Duke but not by that much.  Like Duke, they're a little thin and get most of their contributions from five players.  Essentially they're reaping the benefits of having a senior-heavy lineup of good players.  Far too many close calls to bad teams in ACC play this year that could easily have been losses.  I think you're pumping them up too high; they're not that scary.

"We've beaten Michigan the last four years.  So where's the threat?"

- Mark Dantonio

Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<

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March 11th, 2013 at 4:59 PM | I defer to the resident Wahoo (Score:2)
My name ... is Tim
My name ... is Tim's picture
Joined: 12/20/2008
MGoPoints: 1126

I will defer to the resident Wahoo as my impressions were based on only a handful of games. Though I do think from that limited viewing I am somewhat confident in my assertion that they'd be a matchup problem for us. I also am a huge Shane Larkin fan rather inexplicably after watching those few games.

"Nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours."

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March 11th, 2013 at 1:21 PM | Bracket Matrix (Score:1)
Bosch
Bosch's picture
Joined: 04/03/2009
MGoPoints: 4297

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Per the averages, we are sitting at a solid 2.  Fine with either a two or three, as long as we land in Auburn Hills.

Also, beat Penn State please.

All right Lemmings. Bring the heat.

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March 11th, 2013 at 2:11 PM | Massey has been posting odds (Score:2)
Yeoman
Joined: 06/08/2011
MGoPoints: 2279

Massey has been posting odds tables based on Lunardi's brackets, though I think he's one bracket behind (this was the one before yesterday's games):

http://masseyratings.com/tourn.php?t=10

Louisville is the favorite at a little better than 5:1. Other odds:

  • Indiana 7.5:1
  • Duke 9:1
  • Gonzaga 9:1
  • Florida 9.5:1
  • Georgetown 18:1
  • Michigan 19:1
  • Kansas 24:1

Other B1G teams:

  • Ohio State 28:1
  • Michigan State 30:1
  • Wisconsin 250:1
  • Minnesota 500:1
  • Illinois 1000:1

I'd take those last three bets, to be honest. These tables always seem to underestimate the odds at the longshot end, probably because they assume the odds on individual games are uncorrelated.

 

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March 11th, 2013 at 2:53 PM | Idk if I would want to see (Score:1)
ohio
Joined: 09/04/2011
MGoPoints: 140

Idk if I would want to see Burke's potential final game in Maize matched up against Larkin. That dude is Trey Burke on steroids in terms of speed getting to the basket. He might look like the far superior PG on the floor even though Burke's all around game is so polished.

Columbus bred, but home is where the heart is.

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March 11th, 2013 at 5:47 PM | Also hate seeing sons of Michigan legends (Score:1)
rlcBlue
Joined: 03/06/2013
MGoPoints: 55

Playing in some other school's colors....

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