Iowa 5/6 against Michigan
Yet there seems to be very little outrage about this despite some controversial finishes and bitter defeats. One could argue that the loss to Iowa in 16 ruined the entire season considering Speights injury. The last two losses to Iowa are by a combined 4 points and both were on the road including a game winning field goal (16).
Ferentz is an excellent coach and the identity of Iowa is crystal clear. In all of the 5 recent losses to Iowa, I would say Michigan made far more self inflicted mistakes and got thoroughly out coached in each. Despite the recruiting gap between these teams Iowa has gotten the better of UM football as of late.
Ironically, Saturday's game will feature one of Ferentz's most talented teams and they match up VERY well with the Wolverines. The possibility of being 6/7 against the Hawkeyes is a real one. As a resident of Iowa (Iowa Alum) I watch them pretty regularly and I am not confident in Michigan's chances. Being in The Big House helps. How confident are you?
October 1st, 2019 at 10:55 AM ^
Are those numbers dates? Fractions?
October 1st, 2019 at 10:56 AM ^
My biggest concern is there defensive line against our offensive line. I’m not sure Patterson makes it through the game. I see him getting hit a lot. They know he won’t pull the ball on the read option. If he goes out I don’t think Milton is ready for there defense. I think Milton is going to be a good Q.B.
October 1st, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
I've seen a few comments about the Michigan OL v. the Iowa DL/Defensive Rush. I'll admit that I haven't watched 1 Iowa game this year...however, a look at their stats show that they have a total of 5 sacks in 4 games; 2 by LB and 3 by DL. They haven't played Alabama, Wisconsin, and Georgia offensive lines either; they've played Miami (OH), Rutgers, Iowa State, and Middle Tennessee St. I think MSU has an excellent DL - they have 16 sacks; PSU - 15 sacks; OSU - 23 sacks. Michigan's defensive front, which has come under constant criticism here, has 7 sacks. Iowa may very well have a good DL, but let's not overstate it. After looking at the stats, I now feel worse about playing MSU, PSU, and OSU.
October 1st, 2019 at 5:24 PM ^
Iowa’s opponents thus far have made a concerted effort to get rid of the ball quickly. For example, the average time from snap to release on passing plays against Iowa State was just over 2 seconds. It’s not that Iowa isn’t generating a pass rush, it’s that the other teams are getting rid of the ball incredibly quickly. That being said, AJ Epenesa is still Top 5 in the country in QB pressures per PFF (or at least was prior to last week’s game).
October 1st, 2019 at 11:00 AM ^
I'm quite confident. This feels like a 20-16 Michigan win.
As good as Stanley is, I think we frustrate him just enough.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
You got the 16 right but the 21 will be closer to 35. Iowa has zero pass rush. Shea will have all night to throw
October 1st, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
"Quite confident" in a 4 point win? Seems like a small win margin for such confidence.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
I meant to type 27-16. That was the score in my head. Not quite sure why I hit 0. I'm having a day.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^
Wait a second. How did we get to schedule Iowa at home at noon with temps in the upper 50s? I though we were only allowed to play them at night on the road with a 28* wind chill.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
That's what I thought. I went to the last two games. I had no idea that Iowa had the same climate as Siberia.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
One of Ferentz's most talented teams after losing two first round tight ends? Not buying it.
Iowa is a solid team as they are most years. Michigan, as they do most years, has more talent.
Michigan is also at home. This is a must win if they want the season to have any meaning moving forward, rivalry games aside. No disrespect to Iowa but Michigan should absolutely win this game.
No excuses.
October 1st, 2019 at 5:26 PM ^
This is Iowa’s most talented team since 2010. Michigan has more talent across the roster, but Iowa has more high end talent than Michigan does.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:18 AM ^
I'm at a 7 confidence here.
They're similar to Wisconsin, but with fewer play makers on offense (no Taylor, Smith-Marsette isn't as good as Cephus). Their defense doesn't really have a Baun or Orr-level player in the back end that stands out. Their corners are stiff and we should win there.
We can absolutely lose this game, don't get me wrong. They have two high draft picks at OT, a line that overall approaches Wisconsin's in strength. They have a great DL in Epenesa that can do everything. Stanley is a very solid QB and Sargent will make the most of the yards his line gives him.
It's a good benchmark game for us, and I am glad that Iowa is undefeated and ranked above us, because this is a game we should absolutely win. I think they are a little overrated based on who they've played and their one close game coming against a team that is not very good. Home field, talent advantage, etc. - we have to play to our potential and win the turnover battle, but we will win this game.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
Emotion plays a big part in the game. You can bet Michigan will be up for this one.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
Very.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
So talented that they barely beat a 1-3 Iowa State team. Their QB is pedestrian as are their WRs. Their secondary isn’t great either.
Iowa had four wins vs RR/Hoke.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
The way it's titled, I thought that Iowa was going to run some crazy new defense
October 1st, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
This is all kinds of stupid. You know it.
5 of 6, when ALMOST ALL of those were from Hoke/RR era?
This whole paragraph is crazy:
Ferentz is an excellent coach and the identity of Iowa is crystal clear. In all of the 5 recent losses to Iowa, I would say Michigan made far more self inflicted mistakes and got thoroughly out coached in each. Despite the recruiting gap between these teams Iowa has gotten the better of UM football as of late.
No one outside the boundries of Iowa would use the word "excellent" to describe Ferentz. Maybe you meant "good"?
And what do the self-inflicted mistakes and coaching of RR/Hoke ear have to do with ANYTHING? RIch Rod? Hoke? Is that even a thing now?
I mean, why did you pick the last six games at random anyway?
I guess you have the BPONE hard. I know living in another Big Ten state during the "lost decade" is tough, but pull it together. I had to look up some of your other gems:
Iowa wins the West. They're the most complete and talented team in that division.
Hate to say it but MSU will be a legitimate contender in the East. Expect a solid comeback season for Lewerke. The question is will the o-line be improved and can they run the ball? We'll see.
Post-Wisco:
Iowa is going to crush this soft ass team in The Big House. They match up very well with the Wolverines.
I think I get it. You like old-school Lloyd Carr style football. You would have taken Ferentz when Lloyd retired. Smash mouth "mid west" style. You are not a fan of transitioning to new style offenses.
Ferentz and Dantonio are similar coaches in my opinion. Recruit similar levels of talent. Players who have "legal" problems a little more than other places. Smash-mouth, low possession games and just hope to stumble on some talent once and a while that gets you into the top 5 or 10 in the country. Good. Solid. Dependable. Boring.
Limited. We tired of that under Carr.
I prefer trying to attain more, even if it is an uneasy ride. Go Big or Go Home, IMO.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
Almost all of those games from the RichRod and Hoke years were winnable too, despite us playing some of the most horrible football you'll ever watch. Those games in Iowa City, when we weren't playing horrid offense, we were playing horrid defense. But all were winnable games.
Iowa's last trip to the big house in 2012, we destroyed them 42-17 despite Fitz's gruesome foot injury in the first quarter.
I'd love to see a repeat of that game. Iowa's been a b*tch lately and they deserve some karma.
October 1st, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
Iowa almost gifted the '09 game. Donovan Warren had a pick six early, and Denard got his first meaningful action in the 4th quarter.
October 1st, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^
Michigan was undefeated against Iowa from 1925 through 1957. Now, they didn't play every year, but the Wolverines did prevent the Hawkeyes from achieving an undefeated season and likely number one finish in 1956. Iowa Pre-Flight did have two victories during WW II.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
Those 5 wins for Iowa weren't against the best UM teams
2009 - depths of the RRod era
2010 - see above
2011 - Borges made Denard play under center all game...
2013 - Depths of the Hoke Era (Poor damn Devin Gardner)
2016 - This was a nice win for Iowa, albeit an ugly one.
October 1st, 2019 at 1:07 PM ^
Yeah, 2011. Hoke was such an idiot. He lost to Iowa and only went 11-2 and won the Sugar bowl. You also forgot 2012, that was probably another terrible Hoke loss to Iowa, so good thing you left it off. We shall forget all of Hoke.
October 1st, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
2009 - tate gets hurt. denard enters in 2H. he had one TD drive but also effectively ended the game with a bad INT in iowa territory with under a minute when a FG wins it. graham was an absolute beast on D that game.
2011 - end of the game. first and goal at the one and borges has denard throw the ball on all four downs; including 4th down when the clock didn't matter. also, the hemingway TD was overturned.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
I am feeling a 2016 Penn State game vibe for this game. Just feel this team is ready for a breakout and this is the weekend it happens.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
Like Michigan, Iowa has been garbage poop on the road against ranked teams the last ten years or so, so I'm confident.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
2011 should have been a Michigan victory in Iowa City. Hemmingway probably had a touchdown and Roundtree was very, very clearly interfered with in the end zone.
But alas, Michigan did lose
October 1st, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
Dude. No fractions on the board if you didn’t graduate past 6th grade.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
Iowa is not Rutgers. This should be a good game and if the Maize and Blue are to come out on top a great effort will be needed. By the players AND the coaches.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
Using slashes to indicate records versus hyphens is confusing. That being said, I don't see how Iowa can go from being 5-6 against Michigan (recently, I assume you mean) to 6-7 against Michigan after one contest; but sure, Iowa in the past 25-30 years has been more competitive against Michigan than it was in the previous 50.
Beyond that, I don't think anyone knows if this is one of Kirk Ferentz's most talented teams or not yet. We have two opponents in common. We looked better than Iowa did against Rutgers and worse that Iowa did against MTSU.
Personally, I think we're going to be fine.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
My friend, 5/6 means they've won 5 of the last 6. Winning this weekend would mean they have won 6/7.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
Thanks for the clarification, but I would suggest that "5/6" does not implicitly mean "5 of 6".
October 1st, 2019 at 1:21 PM ^
When a QB goes 19/25...he completed 19 of 25 passes.
5 of 6
19 of 25.
October 1st, 2019 at 11:13 PM ^
Counterpoint: A TD/Int ratio is read as TD to Int ratio, not a TD of Int ratio.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
I like turtles
October 1st, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
If we eliminate turnovers and play well on both sides of the ball then I don't see why we couldn't win by a 7 to 10 points.
October 1st, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
It’s at home and Iowa’s offense doesn’t score lots of points so I’m cautiously optimistic
October 1st, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^
V little confidence. Iowa's Dline, in particular the edge rushers Jackson and Epinesa, will feast. Shea also won't do well with the cover-2. I'm not 100% sure how the defense will fare but im guessing it'll be similar to Wisconsin and we get the ball ran down our throats until Stanley hits PA passes on us to frustrate all the more.
Yea it's a home game but...I'm nervous.
October 1st, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
If it's a close game, Michigan will win. I don't think this Iowa team is as talented as the '02, '09, or '15 Iowa teams. The teams are evenly matched. Iowa's defense is a little better, and when healthy Michigan's offense has a higher ceiling. Either Michigan will win a close game, or it will look like some version of the Wisconsin game. Those possibilities seem equally likely.
October 1st, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^
This is a very, very tough match-up for Michigan.
- Iowa plays a base Cover 2. They have a very strong defensive line and, on many plays, their entire defense has eyes on the ball. They are very good at limiting big plays, especially in the running game, and have a good secondary. Shea has trouble reading zones quickly, and Iowa has one of the best pass-rushers in the nation. That said, there are a few ways to beat that defense:
- Consistent, but not spectacular running game. If we can win the LOS (we should with our OL) the Cover 2 is vulnerable to inside runs for 4-5 yards since the LBs have to respect the pass on every play. This can also help pull the LBs up a bit to open passing lanes and make play action deadly.
- Short passing game to TEs and RBs. The gaps between the outside LBs covering the flats and the MLB trying to cover the middle third can open the short passing game up.
- Deep shots. Cover 2 is not strong against four verticals or really any deep flood concept. Had we hit our deep opportunities in 2016 (and they were definitely there for the taking) we would have won that game comfortably.
- Iowa's zone-based ground game can punish aggression. Since the RB picks the gap on every play, Michigan needs to stay very gap sound. Our aggressive defense can leave us vulnerable to cut-backs, bounces, and re-gapping that Iowa's offense is built around.
- Iowa has a competent QB and a threatening play action game. This offense is boring, but very effective if they can get going on the ground. If Michigan can't stop the run with frequency, the passing game will open up. While I like our secondary vs. their receivers, we could get RPS'd here if we're not careful.
The Cover 2 does an excellent job of shutting down the intermediate passing game, which has basically been Michigan's offense this season. It can slow the QB's reads down and allow the LBs to get downhill. Their offense takes advantage of any minor technical or mental errors, and stays on schedule (like Wisconsin or Army) to force the defense into making tough choices on 3rd down.
The optimist in me says Michigan wins. If we're just going off the evidence we've seen so far, Iowa should win this game. If Michigan can pull out a win, it's a very, very good sign that our offense and defense are growing up and we are in fact still capable of contending for the division.
October 1st, 2019 at 2:57 PM ^
Well put. Their Cover 2 is what worries me the most. I'm not confident in Shea's ability to quickly read a zone D. It's been a constant struggle for him and I doubt it's going to be drastically improved in a week.
October 1st, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
I agree w/ just about everything you say. My fears are the following:
1. Getting bled 4-5 yds/run - all 3 of Iowa’s backs are tough runners - if they are hit 2 yds beyond the LOS they are going to grind out 2-3 more yds. This would be bad bc it will keep them out of Obv passing situations- which may affect the # of snaps Uche is on the field - I think we will see Paye slide inside in order to get him on the field. Not sure how he would hold up against a tackle like Jackson (shakes fist at Harbaugh and Drevno).
2. Not getting pressure despite blitzing - if Stanley is allowed to stand in a clean pocket, he will pick M apart.
3. Getting hit by a big play on crossing routes or over the top primarily d/t #1 and #2 - their receivers look pretty fast. Getting caught in Man has not gone well if picked up pre snap. Hope coverages are better disguised pre-snap.
4. M is going to have to hit some big plays on offense. Agree that 4 -verts will be good this week IF the Runyon and Mayfield don’t get Espanasa’d
5. It sure would be Nice if Shae is able to make Iowa’s LB’s account for him in the run game w/out getting hit.
Overall, this is a tough matchup for M. Iowa is more readily equipped to sustain drives given their OL vs M’s DL. Going to have to protect Shae and getting the ball out quick is tough against cover-2. Rolling the pocket is prob a good idea this week. I envision a 28 - 17 type game where Iowa wins bc the D can’t get off the field and the Offense can’t get in a rhythm and therefore limited big play opportunities - I really hope I’m wrong
October 1st, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^
Michigan fell flat in its first true test of the season @ Wisconsin. You can bet they will be fired up and locked in for this one. This is a good next step to washing that sour taste out of the mouth from the UW beatdown, and its at home. I think we will win this one and look good doing it, 36-17.
October 1st, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^
One thing about Iowa under Ferentz is that they play a very disciplined, conservative gameplan, waiting for their opponent to hurt themselves. They typically don't turn the ball over that much, play very good defense, limit their penalties, and have excellent special teams. Their QB is typically a classic ball-control type - not flashy and just concentrates on not making big mistakes and moving the chains.
One way Michigan can win is NOT turn the ball over. If we start fumbling away the ball or throwing picks, we're likely to lose. That's one key. Another is Michigan must find a solid running game on Saturday. Making Patterson beat Iowa with his arm alone is a recipe for losing. Our OL needs to show up. If they don't, it will be a long, nail-biting afternoon. Overall, I think we'll win in a close game.
October 1st, 2019 at 2:46 PM ^
4 of those 5 were against two of the worst coaches in Michigan history. Harbaugh has lost to them once at Kinnick, where we always struggle, in a game where our QB got hurt and we lost on a last second FG. The stats you are referencing mean little to nothing, but thanks for cherry picking them.
You lost me at Ferentz is an excellent coach.
October 1st, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
Your last sentence is true for the majority of games except when Ferentz is coaching against M.
October 1st, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
I know I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer but I had no clue what your title was about. I drank a lot of Manischewitz on Rosh Hashanah but I still was confident we weren't in the month of May
October 1st, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
Setting aside OSU...we just play SOOO much better at home. So, I am confident.
October 1st, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
Just another program that has surpassed us in the last decade.