Interesting article putting JJ’s numbers in context
I can’t say I’ve ever really followed Jim Sannes, but I came across his tweet that led to his article where he ranks the QBs in this year’s draft.
If anyone is interested in reading the article, here’s the LINK.
In short, his model thinks JJ is the 2nd best QB in this year’s draft. And he provides a couple of interesting stats that give some context to JJ’s seemingly pedestrian numbers relative to the rest of the class.
Here are some interesting comparisons:
McCarthy's Total QBR is more impressive than his AY/A (9.8) partly due to the schedule he faced. More than 63% of his pass attempts came against top-50 defenses by SP+, and the average opposing defensive rank was 38.8. Both were toughest of the six quarterbacks we're looking at today.
That plus efficiency wasn't just because of Michigan's run game and positive game script. McCarthy had a whopping 13.1 AY/A on 3rd and 6 or longer, spots where the defense knew a pass was coming.
That 13.1 AY/A easily led this class and is the third-best mark for any quarterback prospect since 2010, trailing just Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. McCarthy's (relatively) lower AY/A is also excusable given 17.8% of his pass attempts came in these obvious passing situations.
Here's a link to the tweet (hopefully it embeds correctly)
If you’re looking for a cliff notes version of why JJ McCarthy is rising up boards it’s this:
— Nick Miller (@NicholasMMiller) February 13, 2024
When you take the two stats combined it’s even more impressive. Many argue Michigan didn’t trust McCarthy, but this data suggests they leaned on him when it mattered most. https://t.co/5tqwl7pWmR pic.twitter.com/Ok0mjWFsVV
If anyone is interested, his draft ranking for this year's QBs is:
- Jayden Daniels
- JJ McCarthy
- Bo Nix
- Caleb Williams
- Drake Maye
- Michael Penix
February 14th, 2024 at 12:03 PM ^
People show their ignorance when they dismiss JJ (and Michigan's 2023 offense) as pedestrian simply because the big, flashy numbers weren't there. JJ and the offense as a whole executed on an efficiency level that most programs will never get to.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:39 PM ^
Same goes for the other side of the ball. People see Michigan rush 4 and drop 7 and think 'wow so lucky the QB didn't hit the open guy' because the complexity of the defense is not evident to casuals. It just looks like the offense is screwing up. The 2023 team is gonna be one of the better teams of recent memory and will never really get credit for it outside of Ann Arbor and SP+
February 14th, 2024 at 12:58 PM ^
Well, as my late-grandmother would always say, "If the analysis ain't coming from Ann Arbor or SP+, I do not give a f***."
February 14th, 2024 at 1:56 PM ^
Your late grandmother was a bad ass b****, it sounds like.
February 15th, 2024 at 9:29 AM ^
She was. She made it all the way to 94. Then she brought a knife to a gun fight, unfortunately..
February 14th, 2024 at 2:23 PM ^
True.. In reality if we want to "blame" anyone for JJ not having the ridiculous, flashy numbers the others had, it's the Michigan DEFENSE, not the opposing teams defense.
I'll bet the QB's with the crazy stats had to score more points to stay in games where in reality Michigan offense only needed to average 10 PPG to win. JJ had games of 10-15 attempts, most of the other guys had 10-15 attempts per quarter.
February 14th, 2024 at 9:52 PM ^
They were the greatest Michigan football team of all time and that's according to Charles Woodson.
February 14th, 2024 at 10:50 PM ^
We won the national championship. What more credit is there even to give?
February 14th, 2024 at 2:06 PM ^
Yep. And only Michigan fans realize that in the majority of the games this season JJ seldom played much more than half of the game. That’s not the case for the QBs with the the “more impressive” stats.
February 15th, 2024 at 11:10 AM ^
Plus, with Blake, if we were inside the 5 he would get it.
Other teams throw from the 1, 2 and 3 yard line.
February 15th, 2024 at 9:59 PM ^
Would this raise JJ's yards per attempt though if not throwing inside the 5?
February 14th, 2024 at 9:51 PM ^
So few turnovers. Boa constrictor. Complementary football. Chef's kiss. Thank you Harbaugh.
February 15th, 2024 at 8:42 AM ^
The only ones I saw dismissing JJ were the fuksticks to the south and Bama and Washington. The latter changed their tune after while OSU still say JJ sucks, even after he waxed that ass. You saw what happened when the supposed “generational talent” Penix faced an elite D while JJ faced them all year long. J J will have the best career out of all qbs in this years draft….flag it!
February 14th, 2024 at 12:04 PM ^
Yea the narrative that we didn't trust JJ kinda developed after Penn State and Iowa, especially among Big Ten coaches in The Athletic. But anybody who watched Ohio State would've known that was bullshit. Our run game is incredible, but so too was JJ. We were just a great offense and defense and team and that's why we're champs.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:08 PM ^
McCarthy was CLEARLY injured all the way through to the end of the year. But we couldn’t say a word, because if there’s a single lesson from this year’s CFP fiasco, it’s “if your QB is injured, never, under ANY circumstances, admit it.”
It’s not sacrilegious to admit that our passing game was largely put on a shelf, and any attempts to make it seem like McCarthy was somehow completely on his game for the final 6 games of the season…are as disingenuous as the people who try to dismiss him due to the lack of counting stats. I get equally frustrated at both - guess I’m just grumpy.
February 14th, 2024 at 9:53 PM ^
Breathe easy cuz we won the Natty
February 14th, 2024 at 12:05 PM ^
As I watch Brock Purdy drafted as Mr. Irrelevant take the 49ers to within a possession of beating the QB being anointed as THE GOAT in this realm of relevancy bias, I see no reason not to consider what I have watched of JJ transfer quite well to winning in the NFL.
JJ McCarthy > Justin Fields with 3 years NFL experience.
Build your team around efficiency as it is more valuable than athleticism and if you get both PROFIT!
February 14th, 2024 at 12:05 PM ^
Many argue Michigan didn’t trust McCarthy,
Because they didn't watch the games and just lazily looked at his stats.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:16 PM ^
I think JJ is going to rocket up draft boards as people start actually watching film and has he goes through the pre draft process. I predict he ends up getting drafted in the top 3. I don't think he goes 1 ahead of Caleb Williams but I don't think it's impossible.
I also think Drake Maye ends up slipping a bit from QB2 to QB4. I feel like he's been slotted in as the second QB all season long but he was actually much more inconsistent this past season compared to the year before.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:30 PM ^
The Ringer has him going 8th to Atlanta. I like that for both Atlanta and McCarthy.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:49 PM ^
I'd love it if he fell to the Eagles and could learn under Hurts for a few years.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:57 PM ^
As long as it isn't the Cowboys or any NFC North team, I'm good with that.
February 15th, 2024 at 10:20 AM ^
I'm sorry, but are you saying you don't want the Lions to draft JJ. Surely you jest, or have had a temporary lapse of reason. JJ has demonstrated the following:
a. 28-1 as the starter of this years National Champion over the last two seasons
b. Able to adapt to whatever the game plan is with efficiency
c. doesn't turn the ball over
d. demostrated selfless leadership qualities, from rooting Cade along as a freshman to being the Leader on a team of leaders.
No numbers need be cited. I want this guy on my team.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:09 PM ^
Atlanta has had such terrible QB play the last few years, this would be great. The only hesitancy I have is that he will be thrown into the fire as a rook. Never a great situation and I wouldn't mind seeing him bulk up a tad to better take the physicality of the NFL, but could be great for ATL.
Ideally, he would sit a year behind someone else, or even for the first half of the year before taking over full time.
(born and raised in ATL)
February 14th, 2024 at 7:01 PM ^
There is some chatter here in the ATL that the falcons are looking at a Justin Fields trade. Talk in the office is “no thanks!”
February 15th, 2024 at 8:46 AM ^
Yep. You look at a national championship qb like Stetson Bennet. The dude was great for what Georgia need but peaked. JJ was great for what we needed but hasn’t scratched the surface.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:20 PM ^
I think the PSU game is the one those folks really point to for the 'don't trust JJ' narrative. But, to your point, anyone who watched that game knew it was more 'don't trust the offensive line in pass protection' than it was not trusting JJ.
February 14th, 2024 at 3:33 PM ^
Or more specifically, don't trust anyone trying to keep Chop Robinson away from JJ.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:31 PM ^
Told my close friend, a Washington fan, this exact thing this past weekend. He said he'd be upset if Seattle drafted JJ and I said "that's because you didn't watch Michigan games this year." Except for one, obviously.
February 14th, 2024 at 2:23 PM ^
Not all his stats - just pass attempts - and in specific games.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:06 PM ^
Funny, that according to this Caleb Williams faced many easy defenses and still could not win games.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:08 PM ^
To be fair to him, that USC defense was...bad.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:10 PM ^
"bad" is such an understatement for that defense.
February 15th, 2024 at 3:16 AM ^
So was USC's OL. Williams spent the entire season scrambling for his life. He's incredibly talented but I also believe the hype is way overblown.
Fwiw I think JJ will turn out to be the best NFL QB out of the six. He's the youngest and has had the least number of starts in college (by a large margin vs all but Williams and Maye). And I think Maye is overrated because people look at his size and immediately claim he will be Josh Allen 2.0. That's lazy and overly simplistic. It rarely works out like that.
I also really, really like Jayden Daniels. He's two years older and has many more college starts than JJ, which means he might be more NFL ready as a rookie. But if you draft JJ and he pans out as a top tier franchise QB, you likely get two more productive years with him over the course of his career and he might actually have more developmental upside.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:12 PM ^
I am not really a believer of "QB wins" but at the same token I agree Caleb Williams is vastly overrated. I am really hoping, as a Lions fan, the Bears move on from Fields and take him.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:17 PM ^
He played pretty poorly against Notre Dame in particular, but alot of those losses were due to a defense that the defensive equivalent of the Iowa offense.
February 14th, 2024 at 3:08 PM ^
USC played four ranked opponents in '23 and lost to each of them. And, they also lost to UCLA.
USC's average margin of loss was about 13 points.
USC put up big numbers against unranked teams - and struggled against better ones.
That vaunted Trojan offense put up 20 points against that ND juggernaut. And also only put up 20 points against UCLA. UCLA, by the way - finished with an 8-5 record too.
The NFL draft will be interesting... If I had the #1 overall pick - I'd trade it and get "a lot" in return.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:14 PM ^
I am opting to dismiss any research, no matter how evidence based and accurate to what I have witnessed, which suggests anything other than JJ should come back for one more year and drag Ben Herbert with him.
I don't have to be rational - my team won it all this season!
February 14th, 2024 at 12:22 PM ^
Waiting patiently for the appearance of (or reference to) the "volume" clowns. These are the people who think J.J. will get picked later solely because he doesn't have "a large enough body of work." Whatevs.
I hope J.J. goes somewhere where he doesn't have to play right away.
February 14th, 2024 at 2:29 PM ^
28-1 seems like good volume to me.
February 14th, 2024 at 7:04 PM ^
I wonder why he beat out the QB that beat Ohio and took us to the B1G Championship 🤔
February 15th, 2024 at 1:10 AM ^
All season Harbaugh kept pointing out what he thought was the most important stat, “percentage of drives that end in points”. I would love to see that comparison because it would really filter out the difference between volume and production.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:22 PM ^
This is going to be one of those drafts that people look back on and re-rank for years.
I think in the long-term JJ is going to come out on top as the most productive and biggest winner in the NFL. He is much more than a game manager and is a great team leader.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:24 PM ^
I haven't seen Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye play, and I haven't watched the others all that much or all that closely, but I have seen a lot of Michigan quarterbacks and a lot of NFL quarterbacks -- JJ McCarthy makes plays I've never seen a Michigan QB make and that a lot of guys in the NFL don't make either.
Given his age and the annual hype for a bunch of guys every year who never make it, I have a hard time imagining that he's not in the top 2 or 3 on this list.
How good will he be in the NFL? I don't know, but I think he has a combination of physical tools and processing/decision-making ability that could easily make him a top 5ish NFL quarterback.
February 14th, 2024 at 12:25 PM ^
Two other things that don't show up unless you're paying close attention:
1. J.J. was the director of the offense. A lot of college quarterbacks can run around and make plays--not many have the grasp of what everyone's doing on offense and defense that J.J. did.
2. We never actually unleashed his potential as a runner. I think even his passing numbers would've been better if we had done a better job establishing him as a running threat.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:01 PM ^
This is the thing that will, in retrospect in the years to come, be said about J.J. -- his knowledge of the game and the QB role, and his ability to read and understand a defense and know how to react, will set him apart. His athletic attributes are enough to put him at the table; his football IQ is what makes him a great pick.
February 14th, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^
Why didn't JJ run more? Did you see any difference between JJ in '21 and '23?
My perspective is - he developed and was coached. In '21 he might have "engaged" the opponent / defender when running. He learned - and showed - in '22 and '23 - that decision making is essential. Part of that decision making is knowing when to fight for an extra yard or two - or, sliding / going down on your own to avoid contact.
IMO - Michigan's offense relied a LOT on JJ over the past two seasons. I credit the entire unit - everyone contributes. But, a QB - you are the leader of the offense - and, that's a visible as it gets.
It seemed pretty straightforward to me. Michigan's best chance to win in '23 was with a healthy JJ as the staring QB. Michigan's game plans and JJ's decision making supported that.
He's a leader - as are so many others - including Blake and Zak. NFL teams that pick them up will be very glad they did.
Go Blue!
February 14th, 2024 at 12:48 PM ^
That's impressive. Look at the two games that were closest. Games on the line. Vs osu 2nd half 9att, 8 completions.. That's clutch.. Against Bama, clutch the last two drives 7att, 6 completions and game tying td to go to overtime!
Folks, dude was nothing but clutch for us in the biggest plays on the biggest stages for us! He got judged for plays being slightly off target.. got judged for a few that were flat dropped or went through the rec's hands. Come on guys, you have to catch these. QB's get pressured, get dline or blitz in their face and we judge them for the ball a half yd off target with 300lb dudes in their face. Numbers don't lie and JJ's numbers back up he is a massive reason we are National Champs! Want to know the difference, Kyle McCord is now in Syracuse, Penix regarded as the top qb in cf last year lost to JJ. All the other qb's under pressure their numbers just didn't add up.
Several are said to have higher end wr's, namely Penix and McCord but their are others as well that had elite rec's and many also dismissed Michigan's receivers. Doesn't matter JJ is the real deal and has skyrocketed up draft boards as people watch him play.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:01 PM ^
It's not just the "lazy stat-readers." Plenty of UM fans finally got to watch a true top tier QB in Ann Arbor and failed to appreciate it.
February 14th, 2024 at 1:04 PM ^
I see 2 sides to this... 1) What you lay out. that there are stats/numbers that demonstrate how great JJ is/was. On top of that, plenty of players put up ridiculous stats and don't come close to panning out (see ohio). 2) Why isn't it more apparent? Why is there a need to prove how great he is? Analysts, the public, etc.. watch insane amounts of football, and primarily are watching the QB on every down. There are doubts on him for a reason - whether you believe that's opportunity (in our smash offense) or ability, that's debatable.
Love what he did for us... we routinely see guys move to the next level and cannot hack it.. and sometimes we see the reverse (E.g. Brady)