If Stanford and Cal end up joining the ACC, would it be a missed opportunity for the B1G
Momentum appears to be building for the ACC to extend invitations to Stanford and Cal. If that happens and they accept, they would be committing to a substantially lower revenue share in a conference that isn't much wealthier than the Pac-12 was, four-figure travel distances for nearly every road game, a conference schedule that includes no traditional rivalries outside of each other, and an ironclad grant of rights agreement that won't expire until the year 4381 AD (when Skynet will have killed us all anyway).
As a Bay Area resident, I've been following the collapse of the Pac-12 very closely and I'm still holding out hope that the B1G will scoop up Stanford and Cal eventually. It's no secret that both of them would jump at the chance to join the B1G, even at a much lower revenue share. And it's no secret that the B1G university presidents want Stanford and Cal. Top to bottom, we have the best academics of any conference in the Power 5. We've already snapped up four of the best ex-Pac members, so the B1G would be a natural fit for the two best leftovers. Would it be a missed opportunity if they ended up in the ACC?
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^
As a guy who, historically, has been quite sympathetic to the "cultural"/academic fit argument for Big Ten expansion (yes, UNC; yes, UT-Austin; no, FSU; no, aTm; no, OU--etc.), I disagree with you. But now my reasoning has nothing to do with school prestige or research revenue.
In a CFB I don't want but must accept is already here (any with Rutger in the Big Ten or the PAC's collapse), I've specifically changed my mind about adding ND to the conference. My opposition to that used to be vehement. I.E.: To shamelessly promote the blockade of that specific rival.
But, now, I see their addition as:
- A wise move in a zero-sum game to enhance the odds of a truly bipolar SEC/Big Ten world. [Whereas ACC survival, as through the addition of ND after a Stanford/Cal package, complicates that.]
- Further, ND tucking tail to join the Big Ten is something that would render Irish pride pouty/squirmy/dejected for decades and--learning/admitting something about myself here--apparently that's the kind of pettiness I'm newly after
August 23rd, 2023 at 10:25 PM ^
Disagree, because I think ultimately academic prestige is the only thing that will matter when determining the value of the Big 10 conference brand.
Ultimately, I don't think any of this realignment in the short term matters except dividing major sports teams into tier1 and tier2. Because for CFB, I believe the Big10 and ACC will merge to create "CFB NFC" and the SEC and Big12 will merge into "CFB AFC". Fox controls CNFC viewing rights, ABC controls CAFC viewing rights, and each year the playoffs ultimately pit conference champions in a college superbowl. I mean, we've already seen this happen in the NFL, what's to say that's not the blueprint for where this is heading?
In football, other media outlets snap up rights for the tier2 league which becomes a defacto farm system. Maybe something similar happens with college basketball and/or hockey, but as far as other sports go, I think ultimately they follow a model much like today's where they primarily play opponents in their ncaa conference/division, and have national championships very similar to current practice. There's no paradigm shifting money tied to viewership of those other sports, so no real value or incentive to align schedules based on a football-centric ecosystem.
In my scenario, shared football revenue tied to Cal and Stanford are the same to UM if they're in either one of the ACC or Big10 conference. Therefore, the value to the big 10 comes from academic prestige and the research funds tied therein.
alternately: who the fuck knows 🤷♂️
August 24th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
ultimately academic prestige is the only thing that will matter when determining the value of the Big 10 conference brand.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
That was a good one.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:56 PM ^
If the programs are willing to accept significantly less than others I don’t see why not? Stanford offers much more than Rutgers. Cal is whatever.
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:29 PM ^
I don't think they are a take.
I was not a huge fan of UO and UW, mostly b/c they weren't good enough to take last summer, why would they be takes now? That said, both UO and UW have actual, functional football teams and are sacrificing almost half a billion thru 2030, so the B10 is getting a great deal.
As for Calford: 1) they weren't a take in 2022 when UCLA/USC were added. 2) they weren't a take a month ago when UO/UW were added. So, why take them at all now given that they have no interest in competing in football and basketball? 3) If the ACC and Calford are this desperate to join (with SMU, lol?!) then let them. That move won't make the ACC stronger in anything: FB,BB,non-rev, or $$$. If anything, it weakens all parties. Plus, Why would anyone go to Calford to spend 30% of their life traveling to/from the right coast? Michigan should be able to sell a better expereince than Stanford can in that scenario.
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:23 PM ^
They weren’t a take at $50M. They weren’t a take at $40M. Might they be a take at $30M?
Besides, I’m still of the opinion that these are academic institutions that have football teams and not the other way around. (I know I’m misguided in this way of thinking. Nevertheless…)
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:34 PM ^
Fox ponied up more dough to compensate Wash & Oregon without the 16 other B1G schools having a reduction. I can't imagine Fox paying MORE a SECOND time for Cal & Stanford.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^
NBC might if another team tags along.
August 24th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Maybe not enough to cover UDub & Oregon's additional share (IIRC, around $50 million each). But between FOX, NBC, CBS, and maybe Apple TV+, enough to cover Cal & Stanford's additional share, if that share is around $30 million each?
Once UDub and Oregon agreed to take less than a full share, IMHO, the financial dam broke. I don't think that's going to pose as much of a bar going forward.
Indeed, my Buckeye friend--I think the opposite may prove true at some point, as I could envision a future scenario in which OSU demands a more explicitly tiered payout system for the schools that draw more TV eyeballs. (Would Michigan make such a demand? ::clutches pearls:: Heavens, no!)
In any event, my heart is with the OP. I would love to see Cal and Stanford in the B20. Those two schools would fit really well academically and culturally.
Of course, the fantasy would be to take UNC as well, and trade Nebraska to the Big XII. Let's blanket the other conferences with academic powerhouses that can still support great athletics.
August 24th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
You’re underselling Oregon and UW. They are both looking like Top 10 programs. Both have pretty large and devoted fanbases. Both are major state universities. And Oregon is very much a marquee national brand.
August 24th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
More like top 20 programs. I'd say these are the top 10 programs:
Georgia
Bama
Michigan
OSU
LSU
Clemson
Oklahoma
PSU
USC
ND
(With Texas, Florida and FSU on the verge, if they get their act together.)
But they are solid additions to the conference.
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
Even if they agreed to take a huge haircut, they are still dilutive in terms of scheduling.
There's only so many conference games that you can play. Imagine swapping out Penn State & Nebraska from this year's schedule for Stanford & Cal?
Cal and Stanford are basically Rutgers and Maryland with higher SAT scores.
August 23rd, 2023 at 6:32 PM ^
Cal and Stanford are basically Rutgers and Maryland with higher SAT scores.
SMH
Stanford is the University of Champions. They have more div 1 NCAA championships, and probably Olympic champions, than any other school. Cal is number 10 on the list of NCAA championships and 1 ahead of Michigan at 11.
Stanford is also the top academic school in the FBS.
Cal has the most Nobels of schools in the FBS. Cal’s football program, like others, has had its ups and downs. They have had more up years than probably half the B10.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^
Agreed. Stanford basically wins the directors cup annually. They are the best athletic department top to bottom in the country.
August 23rd, 2023 at 11:05 PM ^
...and not in small part because their PAC-12 $ has been funding their non-rev sports. Honestly won't be sad to see what happens when that goes away. And another reason I don't care to see them join the B1G.
August 23rd, 2023 at 11:41 PM ^
Think of all the scholarships Stanford provides in non-revenue sports. They lead in that area. You think that comes from Pac12 FBS shares? Then how do so many other Pac12 schools have bankrupt athletic departments. Of course that is not true with Stanford.
Your post also seems to suggest Stanford’s scholarships for non-revenue sports is a bad thing. Is the only thing important to you that Stanford not win the Director’s cup? Think of all the athletes that get scholarships in these non-revenue sports that can further their athletic career and get a great education, and that would NOT have that opportunity anywhere else. Many of these athletes are the women on the WC soccer team or the Olympic volleyball team and more. How can anyone think that providing scholarships to these non-revenue athletes is a bad thing.
August 24th, 2023 at 12:41 AM ^
5% of the last US summer Olympic team was Stanford affiliated. Probably about the same were members of other nation's teams. Historically, Cal was school with the 4th most Olympians.
Potential Power Five Exclusion of Stanford, Cal Is a Bad Sign for Team USA’s Olympic Prospects
August 24th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
This implies that Stanford and Cal are developing these Olympic athletes into studs. More likely, they were already studs and will just go elsewhere now.
August 24th, 2023 at 9:55 PM ^
No, it means that Stanford has more Olympic sports and offers more full and partial rides for these sports. They do have some great coaches so you may be partially correct.
The more important point is that the kids in these non-revenue sports have a place they can go to study and get a great education while also training and NOT have to worry about the costs.
The M fans who seem to want Stanford to fail just because of a stupid Director’s cup and competition with Michigan can’t step away from this tribal Michigan view and instead see the overall benefit to these kids.
August 24th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
Football is the driver in all of this game of musical chairs not fencing.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
No, they dont bring anything to the table in the two sports 90% of people care about, nor to they bring an additional tv market.
August 24th, 2023 at 2:19 AM ^
They’d bring San Francisco and Oakland. They share the market with each other but still.
August 24th, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
Huh?
The San Francisco Bay Area is currently the sixth-largest television market in the United States, with four of the six major U.S. television networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox) having owned-and-operated stations serving the region.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_in_the_San_Francisco_Bay_Area
Additionally:
As the home of Silicon Valley, several high technology companies involved with Internet media or social media are either headquartered or have a significant presence in the Bay Area. These include the following:
Id.
EDIT: I just re-read that list from Wikipedia and realized that it left off the most significant online media presence in the Bay Area, namely, Apple. Given that Apple has more revenue than than the GNP of many nation-members of the European Union, and that Apple was reportedly offering the PAC between $25 and $30 million per school to stream their football games, that is a not-inconsiderable addition to the B18's potential media partners.
Compare:
The Detroit television market is the 12th largest in the United States.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_in_Detroit
I understand the argument that Cal and Stanford do not have currently competitive football and men's basketball teams. That ignores a significant amount of history, for Stanford particularly. And the assertion that Cal and Stanford don't bring a significant media market is objectively inaccurate. By contrast, Oregon and Washington do not bring a significant media market. Although times have changed with national exposure and streaming services, adding Cal and Stanford makes similar sense as did adding Rutgers and Maryland, strictly from a media market standpoint. And, the schools are unquestionably a better fit academically, in non-revenue sports, and in developing sensical travel schedules given the presence of four other West Coast schools already in the conference.
August 24th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
People in the bay area arent watching college football.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
I go back to this question ---- "do we know that the B1G inviting West-Coast teams into the conference is a good thing, something that will make the conference better?"
I think the answer is "yes."
But none of us know. This was a huge structural change for the conference - we basically self-induced a 7.0 magnitude quake to shake things up. Why not take a few years to see how this goes, before we go inviting even more West-coast teams? (this is why I wasn't thrilled on Oregon/Washington so quickly).
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
I too thought it would be ideal to take some time to evaluate/refine the West-coast-teams-in-the-B1G-experiment before considering other west coast teams. Who knows what unintended consequences there are? After 2-4 years, we'd have a better idea what works or doesn't work, and then if it's doable make an attempt at another pair of west coast teams.
But everything was happening so quickly the B1G wasn't afforded that luxury. With Wash & Oregon the B1G must've thought it was now or never, and they obviously chose now. And I can't say I blame them.
August 23rd, 2023 at 6:27 PM ^
Things definitely happened quickly - you're right that we weren't afforded the luxury of time.
But a large part of me also thinks "we are the B1G, in terms of combining athletics and academics, we are most definitely the best damn conference in the land (TBDCITL)."
And from that POV, we do have the luxury of time. We can invite Stanford & UC-Berkeley & others at our leisure, knowing they will most likely always be attracted to us.
We gotta be the guy on the dating scene --- "yes, Stanford over there is very attractive. But I'm not worried that the ACC just bought her a couple drinks. I'm a good man with high-value, I always will be, I am the one making the decisions about who is good enough for me."
August 23rd, 2023 at 11:04 PM ^
I think by passing on them now though, we're basically passing on them long-term as well. As it is, they would already be a drag from an athletics revenue standpoint. I imagine they'll lose even more value as time goes on wallowing with a partial stake in an ACC that seems like a bad fit for them. It's hard for me to see them being more attractive to the B1G in the future the way things are heading.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
If the goal is improving the B1Gs academic profile then yes, absolutely a missed opportunity. Two of the finest educational institutions in the land.
But if the goal is strengthening their football viewership ratings while creating a competing conference to the SEC then no, no loss whatsoever. Both schools are ass on the field, not the classroom.
BTW, Cal averaged 38K fans per game last year and Stanford averaged 29K. Only Northwestern at 28K and Maryland at 31K averaged less in the B1G If their own fans dont give a shit about their respective teams why should anyone else?
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^
The surprise takeaway for me is that they draw more fans than MD or NW. And while I'm aware that this is a football board, what they bring to the table in. . . well, 99 percent of everything else--including in the way they'd balance travel and play across sports--would be plenty enough. I just wish the presidents really were making these decisions, and not a bunch of guys with bad haircuts and ridiculous sports jackets.
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:21 PM ^
I'm with the Old on academics -- no brainer and a miss. If it's dollars you want, Stanford is the last piece before ND has to acquiesce -- and like it or not, they bring big dollars, still.
I'm among the few that likes the expansion -- we're going to get more brand name match-ups making every week more fun, and I'm a believer that the playoff won't get that watered down (6-6 isn't getting in ever, but 9-3 might). Even so, whoever wins it will have played multiple great games.
Twenty-two (or 24?) teams, full round-robin in your half, match-up by rank the last week, no more conference championship game. I'm here for that.
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:51 PM ^
Agreed. I think the Big Ten has a chance to have a unique identity: premier athletics + academics, nationwide.
It won't be the Ivy in terms of exclusivity, but it won't be the community-college-with-an-NFL-team model of the SEC either. It would be an extremely well rounded league of strong academics, research, high profile sports and non-revenue athletics, with a balanced national reach. Right now it's an awkward, unwieldy map of football TV markets.
Since we've already gone down the expansion road, we need to complete the map. Stanford and Cal would absolutely fit, as would a handful of ACC schools (once that league has quorum to exit their TV deal).
(And yes, I understand the particular kinds of (TV) dollars that drive this, and that Stanford and Cal don't qualify in that regard, but this is what I want, not necessarily what I think will happen. Even still, I'd buy low on those two programs which are down right now but still have some history. Plus I want to take a road trip there...)
August 23rd, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Hey. I have a very, very bad haircut. If you call it that.
I don't have any sports jackets.
No university president will talk to me.
But I agree with you.
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^
I think that the goal is (or should be) both.....adding academic institutions and increasing football viewership. The B1G may miss an opportunity with Stanford. It's a Top 5 academic institution and might be THE premier athletic institution in the country. That doesn't necessarily apply to their football team.....but they've had success in the past (it's the school of John Elway and Andrew Luck). It also expands access to the California market and gives more "local" support to the other Western schools. I'm not saying that it's a sure loss.....but schools with the profile of Stanford don't pop up every day. Cal, while a great institution.....just doesn't make the cut.
August 24th, 2023 at 9:10 AM ^
Stanford would be a take, but only if it's what gets us Notre Dame. Cal. Outside of academics, which is no doubt great, they offer nothing in sports.
August 24th, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
If the reports that ND wanted the ACC to bring in Stanford because of their rivalry is true, I don’t know why the B1G wouldn’t go for it. That would be so many of their (ND’s) rivals under one roof. USC, Stanford, Purdue, Michigan, and MSU. I’m probably not aware of a few there they may have with other schools too.
August 23rd, 2023 at 7:50 PM ^
Saying Cal and Stanford suck (ass at) at football just because of the last 5 years would be like saying Michigan doesn’t have the most wins in football because so many were before 1950.
Pac 12 Championships Ranking
School, Championships, Last championship
USC, 37, 2017
Washington, 17, 2018
UCLA, 17, 1998
Stanford, 15, 2015
California, 14, 2006
Oregon13, 2020
Oregon State, 5, 2000
Washington State, 4, 2002
Arizona State, 3, 2007
Utah, 2, 2022
Arizona, 1, 1993
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:02 PM ^
They'd have to take a huge haircut on the revenue side of things and Cal would have to agree to sit in the corner and keep their mouth shut during any decision making meetings so the grown ups can get some work done.
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:06 PM ^
Huge whiff by the big ten. Lost opportunity to watch Cal vs Indiana every year.
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:44 PM ^
I know this is a stab at humor. But it really misses the reason that everybody but the elites PLAYS sports--you know, for the good old fashioned red-blooded desire to compete, enjoy the games, etcetera. And honestly, if it got some of these wretchedly flabby suburbanites out of their houses--to play with their kids, talk to their wives--what would be the harm? :)
August 23rd, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Sorry.. but the matchups you really should be looking for are academic in nature. So, one of the future pods would have to include - Northwestern, Stanford, and Cal…
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:17 PM ^
How the B1G assesses potential expansion:
1. Athletic department people identify candidates
2. Go to TV partners and ask how much more $$$$$$$$ they'll pay
3. If the number is big enough, invite candidates.
4. ???
5. Profit
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
To be perfectly honest, I don't care about the academic side of realignment. I don't want to watch Cal v Northwestern or Stanford v Purdue for the sake of academic superiority.
Those schools gaining admittance to the ACC will probably be over FSU's and Clemson's dead body. There are no natural rivalry games except Stanford/ND and that's the one cross-sectional ND rivalry no one cares about. My guess is that adding those two schools will kill the ACC quicker than standing pat.
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:20 PM ^
Nope. I hope like hell they don’t let them in
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:27 PM ^
Stanford makes sense to me if Notre Dame were to join with them. Otherwise no thanks.
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:00 PM ^
This. The B1G is leveraging NDp by dangling the possibility of a Cal/Stan invite to the B1G. It can now afford to wait out NDp indefinitely.
Many don't realize that the PAC12 bent over to accommodate NDp and its' wishes to have annual season-ending games in California (generally at Stan or USC). USC is now (probably) not possible to schedule for NDp and is the biggest loss in NDp's eyes. The B1G will be content to let NDp squirm for awhile.
I am not stating this because I want NDp in the B1G, but rather because this is likely the B1G's strategy regarding NDp.
As always: Fuck NDp
August 24th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
Exactly. NBC is a partner with the B1G and ND both. Conversations are happening, whether they bear any fruit, who knows.
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:30 PM ^
If I'm the programing director at the Big House that likes to fill the time during the incessant TV timeouts by celebrating Michigan's non-revenue B1G championships teams on the jumbotron...I'd say hard pass on adding Stanford and Cal to the B1G...