How bad will college football suffer from this?
You already know the spring season probably isn’t gonna happen so you’re talking about nearly two calendar years between B1G conference games being played.
Athletic departments will bleed hard from this season not happening. So much so that you almost can set your watch to the ticket and concessions prices going up more when it does come back.
How many people who are either season ticket holders or single game buyers that may not come back? That decide there are more important things in life to spend time and money on? Will college sports or sports in general see MLB 1994 effects where Fab interest is hurt going so long in between playing?
Or will people double down and spend even more money they’re undoubtedly going to be asking for?
August 12th, 2020 at 11:03 AM ^
* fan interest
August 12th, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^
I took introduction to economics in college (I know, humblebrag) and I can tell you that increasing concession prices =/= automatically that profits will increase.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
I learned the same lesson from MyGM mode on 2k.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
English please.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
Your Block M souvenir cup filled with Pepsi (NO ICE!!) will go from $8 to $10 and you will like it!
August 12th, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
I think I've bought somewhere between 50-100 of those over the course of my lifetime and my dishwasher has melted every last one of them.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
I've only purchased 2 and one melted, this is the sole survivor...
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August 12th, 2020 at 2:31 PM ^
Haha so true. The ones with the handle and block M from around 2010ish were great. Everything since then has been crap.
August 12th, 2020 at 3:58 PM ^
I can see your 2010ish cup and raise you my 2000ish basketball plastic cup that I managed to hang on to for nearly 20yrs. The plastic integrity remained strong, but LaVell Blanchard's face eventually chipped off.
August 13th, 2020 at 5:54 PM ^
I still have two of those from the Big Chill. Fantastic!
August 12th, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
You will like it, because god damn it, you'll pay anything to have things back to normal.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
Yeah, if they thought they could charge more and make more, they'd have already been doing it.
August 12th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^
Raising prices to counter the impact of lower demand not sustainable as it will just drive more people away. Attendance has been down in college football prior to COVID, showing a demand problem that the pandemic is only exacerbating. This as been a consistent topic on this board. I believe a large number of ticket buyers will realize they don't really miss the hassle of watching a 3.5 hour game or standing in long lines to take a piss or purchase way overpriced concessions.
The moment of economic reckoning is at hand for collegiate athletics. Maybe 20 schools will be able to withstand the financial tsunami. So maybe the future is a 20 team national conference (think the Premier League in English football) with everyone else effectively becoming Group of Five programs (or even something less).
August 12th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
Don't take this the wrong way but I wanted you to know I really enjoy reading your posts Robbie. Even when I don't agree with your premise I find them thoughtful, well articulated and compelling.
NTTAWWT.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:28 PM ^
Thank you. Even if you do live in Cleveland. I have a vague memory of missing a game of the Cleveland Baseball Team because I was stuck in bar on 4th Street.
August 12th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^
my buddy and i have 4 tix together. i am getting rid of my two after 2021 after 30+ years. 40 yd line, so we pay the big annual "donation". i'm trying to convince my buddy to keep his but he is hedging. we may just end up going stubhub route for 3-4 games per year and save a ton of money.
plus, our main tailgate guy just gave his tix up this year. and it's nearly a 4 hour drive for me each way. there seemed to be too much chaos building in college sports even before covid. just getting to be a bit too much anymore in cost, time and effort.
August 12th, 2020 at 5:12 PM ^
I disagree, I think there is enough tradition and momentum locked up in the existing conference setup that there won't be the paradigm shift you envision. I agree that there is a problem, and changes are looming, but I would guess the most likely result is G5 teams drop to FCS, and FBS consolidates to just the Power 5 conferences. There may be a few schools within the big conferences that pull a Chicago and drop (Wake Forest, Northwestern, etc.) but even then that would be surprising. I think all flagship state schools, which make up the majority of the P5 teams, have enough clout and support that they will hang on supporting big-time college football.
However, it is fun to entertain your idea in the second paragraph. I think the proper comparison is not the 20 team PL, but the long-rumored Euro soccer league. I could see the top 2-6 teams from each conference ditching the conference to form a national CFB conference. Again, I think it's all highly unlikely, but not out of the question that the college teams form basically an NFL-lite, with divisions/conferences, a balanced standard schedule, and playoffs leading to a true champion.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^
I see a lot of people making the - in my opinion, completely incorrect - assumption that a year off will make people lose interest in sports. On the contrary, people tend to go nuts for things they can’t have for a while once they can have them again. I would expect 2021 will break attendance records for CFB and compensate for most of the losses this year. JMHO
August 12th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
On the flipside, some number of people will discover that their fandom for a team or a sport was more habit than passion and move on. I guess we'll see.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^
Might be a good thing to trim some of the casual fans out of the Big House. I have friends that still want to get tickets and replacing some of the down in front crowd with cheering fans might improve the atmosphere. Hopefully this is how it play out. Will depend more on the economy post COVID than fan interest I suspect.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^
Some of the down in front crowd have been season ticket holders for decades. Will your raucous friends buy season tickets for that long? Older, wealthier alum are necessary if you want to sell 110,000 tics each week and just know they less likely to stand and yell for 4 hours.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
And yet somehow all of the other schools with stadiums in the same size range as Michigan are able to fill their seats with loud and passionate fans who don't qualify for discounted tickets at the movie theater.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
You're not wrong. Michigan fans of a certain age seem to conduct themselves differently then similar OSU, PSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and MSU fans. Just not the same intensity and let loose attitude on Saturdays. If you've been going to games for 40+ years you sort of accept it and realize there isn't a way to replace that group with a louder more raucous group who will also financially support the football team in the same way.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^
You're not going to convert more diehard fans out of this. Having no football will not make people football fans. If those casual fans stop coming, we're just going to have empty seats.
Hopefully the people in charge understand that and put more fan-friendly measures in place. It'd be nice to not be gouged at the concession stand after you've already paid a lot for the tickets. It also would be good to not have 6 TV timeouts every half.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
I don't expect Michigan to provide any fan friendly measures. They will just raise football tickets in 2021 to recoup the losses from not having sports this school year. One of the reasons driving a 1000 miles to see a game is becoming less worth it. Plus, not making the jump to being competitive in the B1G east is another reason I'm losing interest over time.
August 12th, 2020 at 1:16 PM ^
"Hopefully the people in charge understand that and put more fan-friendly measures in place."
Hopefully a giant, Dave Brandon macaroni isn't part of that plan.
August 12th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
Ads are coming to Michigan Stadium. If not in the bowl, shit like the noodle is coming. We are going to need a golden shovel to dig out of this hole not having a 2020-21 season will leave us in.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^
Yeah, like Today's students who don't show up for games until the 2nd QTR. It makes the stadium always look half full at kick off.
August 12th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
Yea I got yelled at for standing and cheering on row 9 by players entrance. And someone thats fat af in a hockey jersey was staring at me. So maybe its i cultural issue up there in Ann Arbor.
August 12th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
I dsiagree..the longer people go with out college sports the more they get involved in other interests and the more the get used to no sports and we move on...its already happening..if we go till next fall thats almost not quite 2 yrs without sports thats A LONG LONG TIME
August 12th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
College football will come back at some point. It may not be what it was though. If the players leave the conferences that suspended playing for conferences that continued to play we'll see an even greater disparity in talent between the P5 conferences.
Ohio State is a wild card in this. I can imagine their response if they start hemorrhaging starters to the SEC or ACC.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
What do you mean by OSU is a wild card? Their hands are tied the same as the rest of the teams in the B1G, right?
August 12th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
Not necessarily. They have the best football program in the B1G and are the only school in our conference that has a legitimate shot at a National Championship.
Do you think they're going to watch that advantage evaporate? I bet they'd risk the B1G's wrath to maintain their competitiveness.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
It's certainly on the table. Nebraska needs the Big Ten ($$) a lot more than we need Nebraska. We could lose Nebraska back to the Big 12 and it wouldn't really affect the league. Ohio State however is in no danger of being booted by the Big Ten so they have a lot more leverage than Nebraska does
August 12th, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^
They are clearly the best, I can’t disagree with that but they weren’t able to leverage that fact yesterday. Gene Smith seemed genuinely in favor of the B1G’s decision. I would think it will take much more than one cancelled season for the AD and university board to leave the conference or ignore their rulings. But if this starts to drag into next fall you’re probably right, a big shake up would be a very likely scenario.
The whole B1G needs to pray that the other leagues don’t play. That’s the only way any of this discussion matters and I think everyone agrees it’s too early to say they are or aren’t going to play.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^
Yes, this mess lingering into next year (lack of an effective vaccine) was in the back of my mind too.
Thing is we aren't as rabid about football (yep, I said it) as Ohio State is. Their motivation to keep playing will impact their future decisions more than ours.
August 12th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
Ryan Day told the press on a Zoom call earlier today that "Gene Smith and I talked at length about this this morning", and said playing this fall "is a fluid situation".
He could just be trying to irk Kevin Warren by saying that, but my heart wants to believe they're seriously considering stepping out on the B1G just for this year. As mentioned above, I don't think Warren would clap back at OSU the way he did with Nebraska.. nor UM or PSU for that matter. He can't afford to lose the league's nationally relevant brands.
August 12th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
Can we just focus on that! Like only the positive stuff. A place we can go to make us feel good.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^
I think what Rgard means is that OSU is loaded with players who have a highly desirable value to a lot of other power house programs. We have a few. Maybe Penn State has a handful. Beyond that there isn't much. But neither are on the level of OSU.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
Thanks. That sums it up well.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
Not just the talent on the field, of whom the Big Ten and especially Ohio State will lose a ton of. What about the talented coaches? Harbaugh wants to coach. If you are whoever the Ford is in charge of the Lions right now are you ringing Harbaughs agent? I am.
If I'm a coach at OSU and Ole Miss is willing to offer me money to... well, coach football and play football, instead of not do the same, I'm listening.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
I commented about Jim Harbaugh leaving to coach in the NFL if there is no B1G season a few threads back. Yep, Ross could be on the phone as well.
August 12th, 2020 at 12:47 PM ^
The commitment has to go both ways. If I'm Harbaugh I wouldn't be feeling any reciprocity.
August 12th, 2020 at 4:58 PM ^
I don't think Harbaugh is going anywhere (mainly because I don't think anyone is going to end up playing this fall) but I'd kinda be ok with giving Gattis a shot. The Jimbo Fisher Chip Kelly @ Oregon, Lincoln Riley, Ryan Day model of young OC to HC has worked pretty well.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^
This is very different than the 94 MLB shutdown - that was due entirely to greed (on both sides of the issue). Baseball was my #1 sport of interest for years up to that point, but the exposure of how much it was all just about the money significantly reduced my interest in pro sports.
This stoppage is very different and easier to understand/justify.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:33 AM ^
You beat me to this response. Both the MLB players and owners admitted it was all about money, and fans still haven't really forgiven them. New fans, added after 1995, don't know/care about it. Older gents remembah...
I mean, I still harbor animosity towards Sweet Lou for showing up to talks in his all white pimp suit, top hat, and stretch limo as a players rep for the union. (I cannot find that damn picture!)
August 12th, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^
I thought you were exaggerating. I can't find the picture either, but here's an AP story mentioning it. What an idiot.
https://apnews.com/bad8f0943ad116613c605301bc09df68
August 12th, 2020 at 12:05 PM ^
Counter-argument is that, while the strike was a big setback esp for "true believer" fans like you, it was really just a blip compared to the big societal trends (shorter attention span, continued rise in NFL dominance, general interest in baseball) that are impacting baseball.
(I don't know what is right, prob everything)
August 12th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
I'm not a season ticket holder. I hate the prices of things already. I will not be attending any games in person if the prices increase. To go to a decent game is basically half of a house payment.
August 12th, 2020 at 11:18 AM ^
We'll really see when it's time for those new TV contracts to be negotiated. They'll keep the Power 5 conferences afloat for the next few years when they come back.
Until then, who knows. Some G5 teams dropping down a level or two. Some belt tightening with staff sizes. Facility upgrades will be put on hold. There will be a lot of fundraising campaigns. They can't recoup much lost revenue by raising ticket prices. At most school the emphasis is going to be on getting the fans back.
I think we'll see more stability in the coaching ranks. It's going to be hard to justify paying big buyouts and big contracts needed to poach current coaches. Mel Tucker couldn't have had better timing.