Honest Question: How Good Can Michigan Be?
There's been a lot of weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth over keeping Jim Harbaugh as our head coach. And let me state up front that this is not a Jim Harbaugh post. I do not want people to comment about Jim Harbaugh. Nevertheless, if we want to engage in productive dialogue, we should probably try to establish what kind of job Michigan is so we can set realistic expectations for what we as fans should look forward to during the "good times", assuming they ever come. So let's breakdown what Michigan is compared to other programs:
1. GEOGRAPHY - Simply put, we're at a huge disadvantage compared to other elite programs. The one exception is Ohio State, which has a geographical and historical advantage over us but the difference isn't huge.
2. EDUCATION - Sometimes this can get overstated as a barrier but our educational standards are definitely a stumbling block on the recruiting trail. And it's not simply a matter of keeping athletes academically eligible. We take educating our football players seriously and someone who isn't all that concerned about their education is probably not going to thrive on or off the field. There's a reason we keep finding ourselves recruiting against Notre Dame and Stanford. Harbaugh seems to take the educational portion more seriously than other Michigan coaches of the past but this component is still not going away regardless.
3. RECRUITING TACTICS - Sometimes the "bagman" gets blamed for all discrepancies in college football but allow me to give a contrarian perspective. The only recent football players that I am fairly confident got paid are Isaiah Wilson at Georgia and the infamous Ole Miss trio from the 2013 class (Nkemdiche, Treadwell, and Tunsil). Yes yes, I know plenty more get paid but I'm talking about significant cheating with specific players that we are pretty confident about.
Wilson was a solid offensive tackle for Georgia who got drafted at the end of the 1st round mostly on potential given his physical tools. He's been a dumpster fire as a rookie due to his immaturity. At Ole Miss, Treadwell was a really good WR who completely flamed out in the pros. Nkemdiche and Tunsil were both drafted more on potential than production in college (especially Nkemdiche). The former was a total bust and the latter took quite awhile to round into form, most likely due to his immaturity. Tunsil is also arguably the most naturally gifted offensive line prospect I've ever seen in my life, for what it's worth. He would have had to have been the epitome of lazy not to have panned out.
The point I'm trying to get at is, much of the time the players who are *most egregiously* seeking out all of these impermissible benefits are players who are immature and/or selfish anyway. They may still give a decent ROI but they usually aren't gamechangers. And they are oftentimes a negative on team culture. That's just my guess. In the end, most elite recruits are still looking at geography, recent program success, fit, and relationships above all else.
4. PROGRAM BUILDING TACTICS - From what I can tell, with no insider information, Ohio State and the top SEC programs seem to take the approach of compiling as much raw physical talent as possible and then assume that with enough competition and enough time to develop that talent in-season, eventually an elite team will emerge when it matters most. For example, take a look at Ohio State in 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2020, not to mention Urban Meyer's 2006 Florida team. All of these teams started off okay and then finished the season on a maniacal tear. Mind boggling raw ability that fumbles around against inferior competition and then comes together at the end of the season when it matters most. Doesn't matter too much how many immature players you have if you can just throw numbers at the problem and coast on superior athleticism for most of the season until all of the bugs get worked out. Makes sense for these programs. Hire elite recruiter after elite recruiter. Pay total lip service to education. Utilize questionable motivational tactics. Look the other way when myriad off-field issues emerge. So on and so forth.
The million dollar question is, is this path realistic for Michigan? Would we even consider such a tactic? Remember, as much as I am a fan of Matt Campbell (for example), there's a massive difference between being the plucky underdog that overachieves and being a big name program everyone circles on their calendar before the season starts. We've seen a lot of Greg Schianos in college football but it's a different animal piloting a blue blood level program and taking everyone's best shot week after week. Michigan is in the difficult position of being discussed in the same breath as Ohio State and Alabama and LSU and Clemson and Florida while having limitations that prevent us from employing the same approach. So I ask, what is a realistic approach at Michigan and what should we expect the results to be?
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
I’m glad you got it out of your system.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:06 PM ^
You missed the big one: coaching and development.
THAT is where the problem is coming.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
Take #2 and launch it out of a cannon.
The Michigan academic standard does not apply to the football program. They will not pass up a kid if he's good enough, period.
This isn't Stanford when it comes to requirements for sports.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
Win with stupid!
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
That's for admission to the university, right? The players still have to pass their classes, don't they?
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^
I am curious what analysis there has been on this topic.
What are the particular academic thresholds at Stanford, ND?
And for those readers who disagree with your argument (i.e. who think that Michigan does have a presumably stringent academic standard that applies to incoming football players), what is it? Test score thresholds, a certain GPA? And how does this standard compare to other schools?
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
While you have the cannon fired up, you can go ahead and shoot #4 out as well. This program under Harbaugh has consistently underachieved with regards to recruiting rankings. He has recruited sufficiently enough to be competitive. Now, if we are talking CFP and winning our fair share against OSU, yeah we are gonna need to average a top 5 class. This issue can be shelved until our coaching staff is getting the full potential out of our current players. MSU’s relative success against Harbaugh is a prime example of how this is not happening.
January 3rd, 2021 at 7:07 PM ^
Agreed. I used to believe the myth that our academic standards were applied evenly across the university; but I was disappointed to learn that it isn't so for those in the scholarship athletics programs. Besides, teams like Ohio and Wiscy have the same requirements for undergrad admissions, and also have more nationally recognized academic athlete awardees every year; so we can't claim some sort of education high ground with that either.
As those of us who attended our Alma Mater will attest, undergrad requirements and difficulty are much easier than the truly high standards for making the cut into the Masters and Professional Degree programs. THAT's where UM's academic gold standard exists. And that has nothing at all to do with players being recruited into our football or basketball team.
January 18th, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^
I'm curious at your flat statement. Back when dinosaurs roamed the earth and I was at Michigan the football players had to attend classes and pass their exams. I'm not saying that they didn't get assistance in studying and maybe writing their papers, but they still had to pass. One of the team was in my anthropology class and at his request I tutored him and helped him pass the class, but he had to take the exams and pass on his own.
Further at least half the faculty HATED the football program and cut the players zero slack. Now maybe as time has passed that attitude has changed, but based on most of the publications coming out of the University I suspect that attitude has only gotten worse.
So what can you put forward to support your statement?
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
In order to build back to a powerhouse, Michigan needs to overachieve at least a few times compared to their talent by beating OSU and not losing any games they should win. MSU has done it, Wisconsin has done it, etc. so it's not impossible. Michigan can compete recruiting-wise IF they can show there's a realistic path toward making the playoff, and that starts and ends with beating OSU, but at the moment they need to do it through coaching because there's a definite talent gap.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:32 PM ^
I think this is absolutely correct. Clemson didn't reach their current level of dominance until they overachieved for two years in a row thanks to Deshaun Watson being absolutely incredible in college. After that, their recruiting shot up from being very good to being elite. They've stayed at that level ever since.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^
Deshaun Watson put on arguably the best performance by a college player I've ever witnessed in their championship game against Bama. Incredible college player indeed.
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:27 PM ^
First off, we need to stop referring ourselves as a powerhouse. We are a powerhouse in name only based on the Alumni and fan support but on the field, not so much. I don't know what yall been watching the last 10, 20 30 40 years but I haven't seen a powerhouse even though I still hope to be one.
January 4th, 2021 at 12:58 AM ^
We were a powerhouse in 1997. And a near powerhouse for a couple seasons in the next 5 after that and then again in 2006. But otherwise you are correct.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
Jim should be let go next year if at anytime he or his team fail to show an enthusiasm unknown to mankind.
But with EUM, Michigan can go all the way.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
A team that could win between 9-12 games every year with a coach who had some clue as to how to run a program.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:18 PM ^
Universities with far less resources have won more. Oregon has been a far superior program than us since 2000 and yet they dont fit any of the models you have discussed. Oklahoma has had tons of success. Clemson went from being a 6-6 team to a national powerhouse. Alabama was horseshit before Saban came in. If bagman and cheating helps winning then why couldnt bama win anything significant before Saban? Stop blaming bagman and stop pretending like we cant be at that same level. Michigan state freakin beat Urban multiple times and made the playoffs and won the rose bowl without bagman and without much talent. Mork was one of the most hated MSU coaches but the guy could get the most out of his players and was a winner. With Harbaugh as the head coach we will never beat ohio state more than once every 10 years and we will be 5-5 against MSU mark it down. This means we may never win the Big ten or make the playoffs. We have to move on from this obsession with Harbaugh. Alabama had some terrible hires before getting Saban. Clemson thought Tommy Bowden was their lord and savior and tried to hold on to him for so long until some random ass coordinator took them to the next level. In order to win in college football you need talent and a good Xs and Os coach but you also need a little luck. I dont care how much you cheat, that wont win you championships ex. Ole Miss with Hugh Freeze. Move on from Harbaugh and look for your homerun hit. It might take 2-3 more guys. So be it! We need to be patient and we should not except mediocrity. Give the next 2 coaches 4-5 years but than be ready to pull the plug. Harbaugh does not deserve a 6th year.
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:42 PM ^
These are all good points and I am in this camp as well. Change won't make itself as these aforementioned programs have figured out.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^
Joke's on you, Harbaugh already got his 6th year.
I will agree he doesn't deserve a 7th!
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
Very hard to say as the landscape of CFB continues to rapidly change. But, I think they can be this year's version of ND, which is basically like the 2016 team with some better luck. They can make the playoffs but probably can't do it consistently or win a NC because they won't do what's required to stockpile the amount of talent it takes to do that. I don't think UMs culture will ever make them what Clemson, OSU, or Bama are now, but they can be a consistent 10-12 win team with once in a while playoff birth and consistent NY6 bowl appearances.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
Honest question: How exactly does one "gnash" their teeth? I know how to brush, floss, whiten, even how to grind my teeth, but the gnashing thing?
I've always wondered.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
Gnashing is grinding. Gnashing is used in the bible several times.
"They will throw them into the blazing furnace, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth."
Matthew 13:42
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
You know...what we all usually do halfway through the 4th quarter.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
I see no reason why the football team can't be as good as the basketball team.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
Leaders and Best?
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Honest question:
What is an honest question? What does this even mean? Is there such a thing as a dishonest question?
A question is just that - a question.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
When did you stop beating your wife?
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^
How good? Who knows? The changes NIL will generate are unknowable at this point.
Let's take Notre Dame, which is comparable to Michigan geographically, academically, historically, and culturally. They won NCs as recently as we have, and reached the NC playoffs twice in the post-Carr era. Can we get there? Sure. Will we? I dunno.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
Notre Dame faces 100% of the same obstacles that we face, yet they’ve made the playoffs multiple times.
Steps to building a program:
1 - capitalize on initial excitement of a new coaching staff which almost always boosts recruitment
2 - coach and develop the players you recruited to get the most out of them
3 - Have a clear identity and vision in your program and continue the upward momentum.
4 - keep continuity in the staff other than clear promotions from your staff; you can’t have people leaving for lateral positions or getting fired left and right
5 - win and sustain
We seem to fail miserably at 3, 4, and 5. We excel immensely at 2 with lower level recruits but seem to be terrible with higher level recruits, which I still haven’t figured out.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
6. Don’t have Ohio on the schedule every year.
7. Be independent or play in the ACC when forced.
8. Take advantage of programs in their down years.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
Notre Dame is a fraud.
https://www.theringer.com/2020/12/30/22206556/notre-dame-bowl-game-playoff-blowout-recent-history
All told, Notre Dame has lost its past eight major bowl games by a combined 166 points—an average of almost 21 points per game.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
Notre Dame beat us 2/3 times they've gone to the NC game or playoffs this decade. Why does this fanbase continue to talk shit about their schedule?
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
Not 100% of the same issues. It simply comes down to Ohio State. If Notre Dame took Michigan's place in the B1G East, I am fairly confident they would have zero playoff appearances just like Michigan does. If Michigan played Notre Dame's schedule over the past few seasons, they would more than likely have a couple under their belt as well.
If you want to elevate the status of the program, the program's very foundation has to be built around beating Ohio State.
I know we want to beat them, I know we try very hard to beat them. The program needs to get to the point where it exists to beat them. This is how Ohio State's program operates pertaining to Michigan. The Game is just a culmination of your efforts for the past 364 days. It is won in the preparation and commitment leading up to that Saturday.
You win The Game, and more times than not everything else will fall into place. This needs to be the matra of Michigan's program - not "Leaders & Best", not B1G Champions, Beat Ohio State -before we see any real significant improvements. Frankly, you can't be either of those things anyway if you can't beat OSU.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^
Honest question:
If it all come down to OSU, then why retain coaches that have historically bad record against them?
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^
Nobody enjoys shitting on Notre dame as much as me. They have made the playoffs and they get blown out. We could say that’s because they don’t have osu on their schedule every year. But we aren’t only losing to osu. We’re also losing to Wisconsin, psu, Iowa, MSU, etc etc etc.
also I’d rather get blown out in the playoffs than the Vrbo camper bowl.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:23 PM ^
If it all comes down to OSU why have we not gone 11-1 at all under Harbaugh?
ND has gone 12-0 twice this past decade beating us both times. If they were in the East and went 11-1 they probably make the playoff just like we would if we could ever manage to do it.
January 4th, 2021 at 9:49 PM ^
we too would be in the playoffs every year with an 11-1 record
January 5th, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^
I might have a different perspective since I'm a fan of the so called "Death Star". HA. I've been following Michigan football my whole life though and it just seems they don't develop their players the same way OSU does. I watched Joe Milton early this season and started wondering if he would be a different QB at a school like OSU/Clem who has clearly been developing QB's at a different level. Maybe I'm 100% off base, but I don't think of a guy like JT Barrett as being elite but more a product of good coaching and getting the most of his talent and leadership abilities. It just appears to be something that is severely lacking at a school like UM for quite some time now.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
For reasons already stated by others here, the impediments mentioned are all bogus: Academic standards, bagmen, geography - the only one I think that has legs, but not in the manner used, is program building tactics.
You start by building a culture based on toughness and work ethic and recruit not just talented football players but leaders who will enforce the culture and weed out any bad apples on their own. Then you set a standard for offseason work and make every position a competition.
Assistant(s) performance has to be rated on ability to recruit - and more specifically - a certain area of the country where they perhaps know the high school coaches well. Secondly on their ability to coach up players.
If you start with these, many other issue take care of themselves.
January 3rd, 2021 at 7:47 PM ^
Perfectly stated. Each point you made are exactly how it needs to be done. Especially your points about building competition, conditioning, demanding growth and development, and a culture that has the Will to Win.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
They are only limited by not dreaming big enough!
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:35 PM ^
Well we should be able to at least be better than Notre Dame and Stanford at their best, so pretty damn good. We recruit in the top 10 and pay our coaches a top 5 salary so we should at least be in the top 10 consistently, if not closer to top 5.
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
This is my view also. Michigan has a long history of top ten level rosters (over four-year rolling basis). And Michigan pays at a level that does not rule out any possible HCs or assistants.
No structural reason that Michigan cannot be top 10 most years.
Just have to (1) hire the right coach/staff, and (2) make sure the institution is fully behind doing all the things that are necessary to be top 10... Easier said than done, of course. But the formula is simple.
People are so used to dysfunction at Michigan that they have wrongly come to believe that there are some structural barriers that prevent Michigan from getting back to a very high level and that we should just settle for being Wisconsin or something.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^
Your 4th point is wrong. OSU et al get not only the most physically talented but also the most accomplished and well trained. They have a name for these players- 5 and high 4 stars. And they get lots of them.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
Michigan can be 11-1 as long as Ohio State is at this level. Michigan should be able to beat anyone in the conference and should be able to win any non conference game that isn’t against Alabama Clemson Georgia.
If you can string that together then you have a chance at eventually upsetting Ohio State if they falter.
I think Michigan’s route to the playoff needs to be to have the strongest 1 loss resume in the country. It won’t happen but I think they should play 3 power 5 schools in non conference. A school with 11 power 5 wins would be really tough to keep out.
January 3rd, 2021 at 5:23 PM ^
Exactly this.
Michigan's near future success is going to based on being the best 1 loss team, so they would need to have a similar year to 2006, where they are undefeated going into the OSU game and losing a competitive game to the Buckeyes.
Similar to the years where there are 2 SEC teams in the CFP (assuming this format isn't increased in the next few years).
Finishing 2nd in the B1G East 50% of the time doesn't seem like its that high a bar to clear imo. Nor does it seem an unreasonable expectation
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
With Michigan's top 10- to top-15 recruiting, player development rising to be comparable to the Bo/Carr era, and modern schemes and coaching philosophies, Michigan can be consistently a notch better than their Bo/Carr average. This also assumes a continuation of the "easier" non-con schedule common in the CFP era.
That Bo/Carr average was essentially 9-3. Given my scenario, I think a quality coach can get Michigan an average of a 10-2 regular season. A general high point will be 11-1 (run the table, lose to the OSU death star), and the floor can absolutely be 9-3. The 12-0 season will be a unicorn until / if OSU regresses, as will the occasional 8-4 season (presumably due to injuries).
This assumes that we get back to balanced recruiting -- no glaring holes, better QB development, modernized schemes, better player development, and better in-game coaching -- including the use of and ability to deal with tempo.
But yeah, that's where we can be.
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
You know, the thing people keep forgetting is that the Death Star kept getting blown up....
January 3rd, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^
I am all for it, except the weakness is only two meters wide. Are we sure Michigan can hit it?
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^
The idea that our academic standards or our geography or our supposedly above-the-fray recruiting practices are in any way relevant to the question of Michigan's ceiling is a product of excusing-making and Michigan Arrogance™. We're a public university. By and large, we recruit the same players as the Ohio States of the world. Many of the players on Ohio State's two-deep had legit Michigan offers. And our recruiting classes under Harbaugh and Hoke have been good to great. Stanford, one of the few Power 5 schools whose academic pedigree is better than Michigan's across the board, has had more success than Michigan over the past decade despite lower recruiting rankings. Michigan State has never recruited as well as Michigan and loses most head-to-head recruiting battles with Michigan, yet they've notched B1G championships, a Rose Bowl win, and a CFP appearance over the past decade. Clemson recruits at a top 5 level now, but the Clemson teams that played for the 2015 National Championship and won the 2016 National Championship consisted largely of recruiting classes that ranked in the 10 to 20 range.
Though I don't think we're capable of Alabama-like dominance, the idea that this program has a lower ceiling than the Ohio States of the world because of academics or ethics or whatever is utter bullshit. We just underachieve. And the reason we underachieve is because we live in our own world, one in which baseless arrogance and an obsession with tradition are acceptable substitutes for actually competing to be the best.