Honest Question: How Good Can Michigan Be?
There's been a lot of weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth over keeping Jim Harbaugh as our head coach. And let me state up front that this is not a Jim Harbaugh post. I do not want people to comment about Jim Harbaugh. Nevertheless, if we want to engage in productive dialogue, we should probably try to establish what kind of job Michigan is so we can set realistic expectations for what we as fans should look forward to during the "good times", assuming they ever come. So let's breakdown what Michigan is compared to other programs:
1. GEOGRAPHY - Simply put, we're at a huge disadvantage compared to other elite programs. The one exception is Ohio State, which has a geographical and historical advantage over us but the difference isn't huge.
2. EDUCATION - Sometimes this can get overstated as a barrier but our educational standards are definitely a stumbling block on the recruiting trail. And it's not simply a matter of keeping athletes academically eligible. We take educating our football players seriously and someone who isn't all that concerned about their education is probably not going to thrive on or off the field. There's a reason we keep finding ourselves recruiting against Notre Dame and Stanford. Harbaugh seems to take the educational portion more seriously than other Michigan coaches of the past but this component is still not going away regardless.
3. RECRUITING TACTICS - Sometimes the "bagman" gets blamed for all discrepancies in college football but allow me to give a contrarian perspective. The only recent football players that I am fairly confident got paid are Isaiah Wilson at Georgia and the infamous Ole Miss trio from the 2013 class (Nkemdiche, Treadwell, and Tunsil). Yes yes, I know plenty more get paid but I'm talking about significant cheating with specific players that we are pretty confident about.
Wilson was a solid offensive tackle for Georgia who got drafted at the end of the 1st round mostly on potential given his physical tools. He's been a dumpster fire as a rookie due to his immaturity. At Ole Miss, Treadwell was a really good WR who completely flamed out in the pros. Nkemdiche and Tunsil were both drafted more on potential than production in college (especially Nkemdiche). The former was a total bust and the latter took quite awhile to round into form, most likely due to his immaturity. Tunsil is also arguably the most naturally gifted offensive line prospect I've ever seen in my life, for what it's worth. He would have had to have been the epitome of lazy not to have panned out.
The point I'm trying to get at is, much of the time the players who are *most egregiously* seeking out all of these impermissible benefits are players who are immature and/or selfish anyway. They may still give a decent ROI but they usually aren't gamechangers. And they are oftentimes a negative on team culture. That's just my guess. In the end, most elite recruits are still looking at geography, recent program success, fit, and relationships above all else.
4. PROGRAM BUILDING TACTICS - From what I can tell, with no insider information, Ohio State and the top SEC programs seem to take the approach of compiling as much raw physical talent as possible and then assume that with enough competition and enough time to develop that talent in-season, eventually an elite team will emerge when it matters most. For example, take a look at Ohio State in 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2020, not to mention Urban Meyer's 2006 Florida team. All of these teams started off okay and then finished the season on a maniacal tear. Mind boggling raw ability that fumbles around against inferior competition and then comes together at the end of the season when it matters most. Doesn't matter too much how many immature players you have if you can just throw numbers at the problem and coast on superior athleticism for most of the season until all of the bugs get worked out. Makes sense for these programs. Hire elite recruiter after elite recruiter. Pay total lip service to education. Utilize questionable motivational tactics. Look the other way when myriad off-field issues emerge. So on and so forth.
The million dollar question is, is this path realistic for Michigan? Would we even consider such a tactic? Remember, as much as I am a fan of Matt Campbell (for example), there's a massive difference between being the plucky underdog that overachieves and being a big name program everyone circles on their calendar before the season starts. We've seen a lot of Greg Schianos in college football but it's a different animal piloting a blue blood level program and taking everyone's best shot week after week. Michigan is in the difficult position of being discussed in the same breath as Ohio State and Alabama and LSU and Clemson and Florida while having limitations that prevent us from employing the same approach. So I ask, what is a realistic approach at Michigan and what should we expect the results to be?
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:32 PM ^
Exactly. The biggest barriers to Michigan football...are internal to the University, AD, and HC/staff...
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^
The recent recruiting at Michigan (Dec 2020) throws geography out the window because brand name overwhelmed that. As for education/admissions, the standards are now much lower for incoming FB recruitment. Plus, once here as "student athletes, they get tons of mentoring from academic advisors making it almost impossible to either flunk out or become ineligible to play.
For Michigan, they need outstanding play at QB, meaning someone who would be starter at ANY B1G school or Power 5. Do I have to say a Justin Fields? Then you need a Wisc style OL. More generational players like a Woodson or those we had in the Lloyd Carr days, too many to name.
Lastly, a great assistant coaching staff, much better than we had the past several seasons. So, it's a heavy lift. Otherwise, Michigan will remain a 3 or 4 loss team each season and call it good.
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
The Michigan difference?
Leaders and Best?
Coaching and Development?
January 3rd, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
1. I think our peak is ND and what they've done in their best years under Kelly. Make the playoffs every few years, score some big wins, but not quite good enough to win it all.
2. Our problem is until we can get past OSU, we will not be in the playoffs. The only chance is to do what we almost did in 2016 (start 11-0) and lose a tight game in Columbus. The OT loss at Iowa cost us a possible #4 seed - it would have still come down to UM vs. Washington for the final spot.
3. Given the current talent vs. OSU, we need a coach who can build us into a winner in FIVE years. It will take that many recruiting classes and depth to match what just steamrolled Clemson.
4. There are still many good players out there that don't cheat - Hoke was able to recruit pretty well and left Harbaugh a pretty full cupboard (minus a QB which was fixed with Jake).
5. Campbell or whomever it is (once JH is gone) will need to know that they are not expected to win 10 or 11 in year 1 or 2. We are nowhere near as solid of a roster as we were after 2014. They need to recruit, develop, stockpile until we can replace NFL draft picks with guys who will be drafted in 2 years.
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
NO, not with the current NCAA playoff format for college football. The talent rich schools like Alabama, OSU, Clemson will always gobble up those 5 star athletes and that gives them a tremendous advantage on the field. Face it the top athletes want to win a national championship, so they will always chose those teams that have the greatest chance to reach the championship game. Plus, they are willing to wait 2 to 3 years for their turn to start. You rarely see top players from these teams entering the portal. If there are 2 or 3 current 5 star QB, one of them may enter the portal but odds are they are going to one of the teams that have the best chance to win a NC.
We will just have to be satisfied with Harbaugh getting the team to be good again, back to their 9 win ceiling and not beating OSU again. My dreams of Harbaugh being our program savior is over, we will never win the B1G again or make the playoffs, at least for a long time, until the death star explodes on itself.
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
Lot of excuses and unproven theories in your post (bagmen, academics, etc). OSU has better coaches across the board than UM. Recruiting is the lifeblood of elite teams and OSU's is run by the godfather of modern recruiting management in Pantoni while UM employs a MAGA loving clown in Dudek. OSU lives and breathes 247 beating UM while UM merely pays lip service to beating OSU. Did you watch the UM hype video OSU had for this year? Be thankful the game was cancelled because the team that steamrolled Clemsom really would have put up 100 as Day threatened. As an OSU fan I really worry more about the lesser teams on the OSU schedule than UM because OSU often plays down to the level of competition in the B1G, but never overlooks UM.
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
Probably an 8-10 win program; occasionally win 11; maybe make a playoff from time to time.
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
See 2018 Michigan football and that will answer your question
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
Is this the Sunday afternoon drinking thread?
January 3rd, 2021 at 3:50 PM ^
Michinga can be very very good again if they could get just one more thing right... a dominate QB.
I’ve been waiting for years to see Bama or OSU have an average to less than average quarterback, but it just doesn’t happen. They just always have great QB play (see Justin Fields).
If M can get a great QB it will be amazing how money of the other things get better too (running game, appearance of better playing calling, team confidence, identity, playmakers, and less reliance on the defense, etc).
Every elite and potential championship team has a quarterback in the Heisman conversation at some point. And when/if M ever gets that performance from that position I’m confident the narrative changes. Until then, mediocrity and losses to OSU almost guaranteed.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^
It’s been stated here before that we can achieve a similar level of success as ND (although they have an advantage in not seeing OSU every year).
Would the fans be happy with occasionally making the playoffs and then being revealed as pretenders?
I don’t believe we’ll compete with the elites unless they stumble with future coaching hires. Even then USC and FSU may be back on top with their next hire.
Let’s not forget how our “elite” 2006 team looked against USC in the Rose Bowl.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^
FSU HC just completed year 1. Guy deserves a chance.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:05 PM ^
At least as good as the Loins
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:12 PM ^
Simple. Better than they have been, but a step below OSU.
End.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^
I won't repeat many of the great points listed above, but if Michigan doesn't recruit and develop top 5 QB talent, it will be tough to compete with OSU. Game managers won't cut it. Mac Jones, Lawrence and Fields are elite college talent. Ian Book is a step below and they got trucked again.
That and elite offensive and defensive line talent is the key to being a consistent winner. Michigan hasn't had that talent in many years on both sides of the ball.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:47 PM ^
We aren’t getting their star talent but our talent isn’t being coached well either. Other than Warriner, this staff has done a terrible job at player development. When our team is playing mistake free football, not blowing assignments or turning the ball over, then I will worry about getting top tier talent. Until then, there is no point.
January 3rd, 2021 at 7:21 PM ^
^^^ THIS ^^^
We have had plenty of talented recruits who were awesome prospects that just didn't get developed up to their potential. Yes, even at quarterback. (And Shea Patterson was the #4 ranked overall in 2016, did very well before transferring here in 2018, then... well we all remember).
The problem isn't the kids who come to play for UM. The problem is that we lack the conditioning and skills development of the elite programs like Bama, Clemson, OU, Ohio, etc. Heck, just look at what Wiscy does with their much lower level recruits. They turn them into record setting RBs, and send entire rosters of linemen into the NFL. Sure, maybe Wiscy isn't at the level of elite like Ohio and Bama, etc., but they do so much more with so much less.
I honestly believe that if the university puts as much effort into prioritizing strength / conditioning and getting the best talent development we can find, then we will compete evenly with teams like Ohio again.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
Its deja vu all over again
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:48 PM ^
Yeah but like really dingy, old stripper with no teeth deja vu. But I guess that’s every deja vu.
January 3rd, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^
In the Ivy League they would be #1 but according to those on this blog, every Michigan football player is bound for medical and law school so its impossible for them to beat the cheaters like Indiana, Ohio State, Rutgers and Michigan State so they must leave the Big 10 because of the higher ground Michigan represents
January 3rd, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
TLDR?
January 3rd, 2021 at 5:17 PM ^
The ceiling is the roof
January 3rd, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
tl;dr. #4 is the ceiling until some major shit happens. But realistically around #8-10.
January 3rd, 2021 at 5:58 PM ^
Look at Iowa and Wisconsin. They have systems in place, their players are well coached. They win a lot of games and play well. Michigan out-recruits both of those programs by plenty. Settle on a damn system, coach kids better, and keep superior recruiting and we should be able to compete with anyone, even if we have marginally less talent than Alabama or Ohio State.
January 3rd, 2021 at 6:02 PM ^
Compared to 99.5 percent of other programs, M has every advantage. Blame the coaches.
January 3rd, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
11-2 with a bowl win should be our standard. Schools like Georgia, Florida, USC and Penn State have all done this multiple times since 2015 meanwhile Harbaugh (who's supposed to be way better than Clay Helton and James Franklin) has achieved this zero times. Even if we lose to OSU we shouldn't be getting BLOWN OUT by Wisconsin.
None of those schools can really say they have an easier schedule either (maybe USC).
January 3rd, 2021 at 8:08 PM ^
I believe we all think too hard on this question.
Harbaugh Win Totals: 10, 10, 8, 10, 9, 2
Harbaugh Alternative Win Totals: 11, 10, 10, 10, 10, 4 or 5
Simply with clock management, game management, etc you would get the "alternative win totals" above. Even if Michigan only beat osu 0 or 1 time max during that time they'd be firmly in category 1b in college football. Category 1a being Alabama/OSU/Clemson.
Just take a minute and think about that. With base level coaching, preparation and management that is how close this team was to being right there; in the hunt, in striking distance, ready to go. You'd be virtually always in the top 10 and spend much of the year top 3-6.
I know we get all caught up in all these other factors and I get it but if you look back the team was very close. The problem is that "very close" is far away at the same time and I don't know if Harbaugh can bridge that gap.
January 4th, 2021 at 1:03 AM ^
The issue is not the win totals, it's the untimely and often questionable/stupid losses and inexplicable blowout losses. The issue is also the obvious roster gaps at DT and CB that should never happen at a place like Michigan that recruits as well as it does. QB has been a consistent question mark. Year 6 of Harbaugh should've been a well oiled machine and it is anything but that.
January 3rd, 2021 at 10:49 PM ^
Even if Michigan could entice an exceptional head coach to take over the program, to what extent is Michigan's recruiting damaged by (a) its 2-17 record against Ohio State from 2001 through 2019 and (b) having recruits think that the current ceiling for Michigan might be finishing second in the Big Ten East and hoping to be invited to a New Year’s Six Bowl game, but not playing in a conference championship game?
OT: Michigan’s longest winning streak against Ohio State is nine games . . . from 1901-1909, ending 112 years ago. Ohio State’s longest winning streak against Michigan is eight games from 2012 through 2019. Ohio State’s winning streak likely would’ve reached nine games had COVID-19 not intervened.