Football Bust and Impact on Timing
Haven't seen this discussed so thought I would throw it out there. I suspect that Brady won't be relieved of his duties until after the football bust a week from today. It's not the Michigan way to be rude like that.
EDIT: To be clear, I'm not endorsing this approach, I just think it's the way it will play out.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^
Seriously. Most people forget about the assistants and support staff surrounding the main coaches whose job is up in the air if Hoke gets let go. They make a lot less, and don't have huge buyouts that will provide for their families if they get fired. Obviously, they can get feelers out now, but removing Hoke is the first step toward getting them out of limbo and into another job so they can keep working.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:09 AM ^
If he has a presser today, it will make my confidence in the new regime to waiver.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:12 AM ^
After email-gate, the University was very quick to fire (allow DB to resign) the AD, but after 3 years of dog shit, we are somehow waiting, and waiting to relieve Brady. I just don't get it. I want to feel happy again about Michigan football.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^
Brandon went to the president and said he needed to fire Hoke and hire Harbaugh at 7M$ per year. New pres says no, this is academics first place and we send the wrong message firing a good guy with a contract and high grad rates. Brandon resigns since he can't be part of a a sinking ship. Plausible??
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December 1st, 2014 at 11:19 AM ^
to be our new DBs coach.
It requires ignoring every known fact including Brandon's buyout agreement.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^
and I hope it's not true....
https://michigan.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=39&tid=176912944&mid=176912…
December 1st, 2014 at 9:27 AM ^
Including the "screaming" headache I'd have if Hoke were retained.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:38 AM ^
1) The athletic department is ran by morons.
2) All proven coaches or coaches with potential are not interested in coming to Michigan.
I don't know which is scarier... Let's just hope this is bullshit.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^
You have the order backwards.
It should be:
December 1st, 2014 at 9:49 AM ^
But this is the smartest course of action. Get the AD search done and in place for next year. If Hoke wins fans will be happy. If he looses at the beginning of the year you can cut him loose mid way, and give Gmat or Nuss the Luke Fickle Honorary Interim Head Coach position.
Then they can complete a real head coaching search and take their time. Also Jim H truly is free of his NFL contract. If he wants the Michigan job he won't sign an extension. Breaking his contract would look terrible if he ever wanted to coach in the NFL again. If the 49ers don't want him and they fire him then he can go work for ESPN, get the urban Meyer treatment and go scout every major program. Hell maybe the ncaa will give us an exception and let him recruit an entire year without technically counting against the limit on coaches on staff, just like Meyer.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:52 AM ^
And the 100K streak will be gone, as well as large portions of the department's revenue. Keeping Hoke at this point is not a sustainable course of action.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:55 AM ^
If Hoke stays he will win more games, but we will still have a terrifyingly mediocre coach.
And I really think they are underestimating the shriekback that is about to occur if they retain Brady.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:26 AM ^
Plus they threw out a name like Schiano and everyone hated it.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:48 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^
According to that article each big ten team brought in 25.7 mill from TV deals. It also states it is supposed to rise this year due to the addition of Rutgers and Maryland, so let's take a conservative guess and say it will net 2 more mill to each team. So the TV deals will get us to about 27.7 this year add inflation for the future so around 28. 5 at 3% inflation.
Let's say the university makes 8 mill per game. ( honestly I have no idea, but I'm just taking your numbers of 5-10). Then let's say they take a 15% hit to revenue ( I think that's high personally, but again I have no idea, but to the doomsdayers that might be a reasonable number). With 7 home games next year they would loose a total of 8.4 mill.
So with the offset of the TV deal being larger they would loose around 5.5 mill. Now if they fire hoke today plus the staff buyouts let's figure hoke at 2 mill and the staff at around 800000 (again just a guess on the staff) that's 2.8 mill they are saving.
So by those ( very loosely guessed) numbers they are loosing 2.7 mill in revenue. Adjust it for inflation at 3% and it's right around 2.8 million.
I think the university can handle a 2.8 million decrease for one year.
December 1st, 2014 at 11:05 AM ^
It's LA. Unless you're the Lakers, sellouts are no guarantee. Hoke will likely be gone in the next week and someone not named Harbaugh, who's already coaching the college game, will be hired shortly thereafter. I would be pissed if this offseason goes by and Dan Mullen doesn't at least get an interview.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:59 AM ^
I don't know that you can do this, quite frankly, and not lose a lot of people in the process.
One important consideration is that football drives the revenue train to the tune of nearly 60% of departmental revenue, so if you start to see the decline in ticket sales, this highly profitable enterprise which shifts much of its excess revenue to other sports begins to eat into the support of other endeavors very quickly. It seems like too much of a risk at this point, at least in my opinion.
Also, the culture at Michigan seems to almost preclude a midseason canning short of utter disaster (and this season....you could make an argument that it was this overall), so we would probably have to come out of the gate in 2015 clincially dead for Hoke not to coach out that season as well, if indeed he were kept.
December 1st, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 12:22 PM ^
Basing your argument on a mid-season firing being a prosepctive option is pretty rediculous. No program will do that. It might be an option in response to a horrible start to a season, but it will not be part of a planning process. Pllus, given all the questions about Hoke's tenure at Michigan, if they do retain him this year, they will most likely have to extend his contract. Otherwise, he is one lame ass duck next season, the result of which would be two poor recruiting classes - this year's and next year's. Two shitty recruiting classes, plus a coaching change, can be a hole a program might not climb out of for a long, long time.
December 1st, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
Florida just fired their coach mid year, I've seen it done at other schools before. Personally I don't think Michigan would, but personally I thought hoke would be relieved of his duty already so what the hell do I know.
Plus hoke I believe is under contract for two years still, and if he stays and starts off hot I would be willing to bet they have a contract lined up to offer him.
December 1st, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 10:38 AM ^
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December 1st, 2014 at 11:01 AM ^
If you read further down it seems it was a hoax tweet by someone affiliated with Michigan wrestling that has since been taken down.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^
If it does work out that Hoke and Hackett are negotiating or have worked something out and Hoke goes to the football bust, it would also mean that there are already behind the scenes discussions with the agents of various football coaches.
I could easily see an agreement being in place with another coach before the bust, done by Skpye conferencing or FaceTime. I am guessing there is a "short list" that is prioritized, so a face to face interview would not really be necessary. Hackett will go from Plan A to Plan B and so forth, down the line until someone says, "yes."
For all we know, it could have been wrapped up when Hackett was smiling on Saturday.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:14 AM ^
Yes, let's do this like we're a high school football program in a small town where everyone knows each other and thus don't want to do anything that will be seen as "mean".
December 1st, 2014 at 9:19 AM ^
Then what's the rush? No more games to be played and JH won't be available until 12/28 at the earliest. Yeah, recruiting, but if JH is coming that will work itself out quite quickly. I just hope we don't get burned.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:30 AM ^
On the flip side, what possible point is there to not fire Hoke today, regardless of who the university may be targeting? What benefit can possibly be gained other than avoiding the pre January 1 buyout?
December 1st, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
But there are also benefits to letting Hoke go even if Harbaugh is plan A. First, it's not a gaurentee that Harbaugh is hired anyway. Use this time to feel out other candidates, let them know UM is serious, as well as give other staff a time to feel out potential other coaching jobs as well. I guess having the staff in place helps hold onto what little of the recruiting class there is, which is a plus. But I think UM just needs to let the college football world know they are serious. And that starts with letting Hoke go now.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:19 AM ^
personally i believe waiting would be more rude than just letting him go now. I know that if i were to be let go from a job or any position, i would want to know sooner than later.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:40 AM ^
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December 1st, 2014 at 11:05 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 11:28 AM ^
I do agree there was a little more conviction in his answer this time around to the question "will you be the football coach?" Or could be he's just got more comfortable with being defiant since the questions have been coming for so long now.
Scan ahead to the 3:10 mark for the relevant Q&A:
December 1st, 2014 at 9:25 AM ^
Look, hoke has to be fired today, or else worker productivity is going to nosedive all over the state. I keep checking the site looking for a press conference announcement. Can't get any work done until it happens.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 9:35 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 10:02 AM ^
Do you know what they're doing today? They are out recruiting-doesn't sound like they feel they are 100% gone like this board has convinced itself of.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
Unfortunately, this is the support group.
December 1st, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
this is it
congratulations! you have completed step one, you are past denial
December 1st, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 9:46 AM ^
the glacial pace may kill us all
December 1st, 2014 at 10:18 AM ^
They didn't fire RichRod until after the bust his last year. But it's hard to know what the hell they're thinking.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:37 AM ^
That's because RR still had a bowl game to play in.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:40 AM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
They didn't fire RichRod until after the bust his last year. But it's hard to know what the hell they're thinkingWe have a different "they" in charge this time around, don't forget. We have no idea what Hackett will do.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:42 AM ^
For some reason that phrase made me lol
December 1st, 2014 at 10:49 AM ^
Unfortunately I agree that they likely won't fire Hoke until after the Football banquet. I hope I am wrong but as I have continued to watch Michigan and how they do things it seems as if they are operating in a different world. Look around and see how many coaches have been fired already and Michigan will "do the right thing" and keep Hoke because they don't want to be rude... It is completely ridiculous but I could see them viewing it this way.
Michigan is stuck in the past in viewing itself as a premiere program, they have to start making quality decisions to get back to that point, keeping Hoke until after the Bust is not a quality decision.
December 1st, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^
where we appologize for upseting our rivals and wait until the last possible second to make terrible coaching decisions so as to not offend anyone. No wonder this program has been a tire fire for almost a decade.