ESPN FPI Rankings
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
Top 10:
1. Alabama +1
2. OSU -1
3. Georgia --
4. Oklahoma +7
5. LSU (plays tonight) -1
6. USC +2
7. Notre Dame (highest ranked ACC team) +3
8. Michigan -2
9. Clemson -2
10. Texas -5
Michigan falls 2 spots to #8. Michigan took control in the first half and never really opened up the playbook and was content to not run up the score to impress anyone.
Ohio State fell 1 spot to #2. OSU struggled against Indiana. I don't want to read too much into just 1 game, because last year we were tied with Indiana at the half and won by 21, whereas OSU was up by 7 at the half and won by 20. Last year we outgained Indiana 469-222 and yesterday OSU outgained them 380-153. However, this does not look like the OSU teams of recent years. Last year OSU put up 56 points and 662 yards against Indiana.
Penn State fell 2 spots to #11. I thought this was surprising as they had a nice win over a decent WVU team.
Iowa won but was decently outgained by Utah State and fell 6 spots to #44.
MSU pulled away from CMU on depth in the 2nd half and rose 3 spots to #34.
Minnesota edged out Nebraska in the Thursday game and they both somehow moved up. Minnesota +1 to #43 and Nebraska +2 to #51.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
Look how Michigan approached the last six minutes or so compared to an Ohio State. Content is a good word. Seems Michigan was content after the win was pretty much assured, but Ohio State was still throwing the ball until Brown went in at QB at the end. Appears to be two different approaches/opinions regarding padding the final score.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
Third basemen are like that.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
And this is the same reason why they are in a state of QB confusion right now. McCord was the backup last year and barely saw any meaningful snaps. It seems Ryan Day feels the need to show off to the fan base by running up scores with his starting QB. It didn’t work so well yesterday.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
They might have just been trying to get him game reps throwing the ball as much as possible. Just saying.
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
I suspect it is less about impressing the fanbase and more about impressing the CFP committee and, most likely, the Heisman voters. Stroud would stay in games waaaaay later than necessary last year to pad his stats. This push to showcase your QB even to the point of bad sportsmanship presumably would help recruit elite QBs as well.
September 3rd, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
This exactly, especially this season where you are likely to have lots of good teams competing for 4 playoff spots.
Michigan/OSU/Georgia/FSU/USC/LSU maybe Texas/PSU/ND all could conceivably have 0-2 losses and be in position to be considered for the CFP. I don't think there is any way that 2 B1G teams make it this season because of this. It's a shame the playoff expansion doesn't occur this season because I think there are going to be a lot of deserving teams when all is said and done.
I don't agree with it from an injury risk standpoint or sportsmanship standpoint, but every team should be running up the score as much as possible to give the committee something to think about in case you have a loss along the way. Things happen and it's really hard to go undefeated. You need to have an argument to show why you are more deserving than another team with the same record.
September 3rd, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
LOL, Steve Sarkesian has never lost fewer than 4 games in 10 years of coaching bluebloods (a feat he accomplished once). But, sure, this year he’ll only lose 2, whereas he’s averaging 5.5 losses a season for his whole career.
September 3rd, 2023 at 4:37 PM ^
LOL, Jim Harbaugh has never lost fewer than 3 games at Michigan in 5 seasons coaching there. But sure, he'll go 11-1 and then 12-0 while beating Ohio State, winning the B1G Championship Game, and taking the Wolverines to the CFP in consecutive seasons.
I'm not saying Texas will definitely be a contender this year, but it is also probably foolish not to think they are plausible contenders. The roster is loaded (sixth on team talent composite), starting QB has shown huge potential (not to mention is one of only SIX recruits since 2000 to have a perfect recruit score), and the Big 12 ain't a murderer's row this year. Also, there was absolutely zero historical precedent to point toward Michigan's past two seasons.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
It is foolish, because of Steve Sarkisian's historic record as an incredibly mediocre coach. You are simply betting against the conclusion of history. He had stacked rosters before and is averaging 7.5 wins, 5.5 losses over his career.
September 5th, 2023 at 7:26 PM ^
Ed Oregon had a history of mediocre (at best) results before winning a national title in 2019.
Bill Belichick had a single winning season as a head coach before winning his first super bowl.
Larry Brown has decades of flaming out in the NBA before reaching the big moments before finally breaking through to win a championship in 2004.
Gene Chizik. No further explanation necessary.
Johnny Majors had never lost fewer than 4 games in his career before finally winning a national championship in 1976.
Bobby Ross had never lost fewer than 3 games in a season, was barely above .500 for his career, and had a losing record as HC of Georgia Tech before going 11-0-1 on his way to winning the NC at Georgia Tech.
San Antonio Spurs fans were calling for the head of Greg Popovich before finally winning his first NBA championship, spurring the beginning of an incredibly long run of playoff appearances and multiple championships.
Again, this doesn't mean Texas is definitely back this year, and history provides a lot of good data points for the days ahead. However, never let the past fool you into believing the future has a guarantee.
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Or Frames adding a TD under 0:30 instead of kneeling it to end the game. Could be for reps, but I don’t know if you want your QB2 on designed runs trying to score there.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
My issue with FPI is that they’ve never published the methodology or formulas so we never know what it emphasizes like SP+ or FEI. I think Connelly has said something like FPI is that is absolute error is very small when it comes to predicting spreads, but not really sure what data is put in you know.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
Also it's transparent bullshit. The amount of false precision in that "model" is the biggest red flag there is. True of all the in house ESPN developed computer models. Total abuse of math.
(I suspect one of the big issues is that unlike Connolly it overvalues garbage time scores)
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
I mean…OU jumps 7 spots after beating Arkansas State? A team they have now beaten 3 times by a collective score of 179-7.
Im sure OU has improved this year, but it’s asinine to have them #4 in anything right now.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
The best model is to wait until about mid-October and then start looking at W-L. Most of the early games fall in the category of scrimmages with creampuffs. There are a few exceptions but not many.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
For all we know they emphasize Lee Corso.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Seems to me that FPI is purely stat driven without any knowledge of what actually happened in the game, factor in opponent, etc. Who knows, maybe if we don't allow a game ending FG and throw up a 0 we only slide one spot.
September 4th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
Maybe if the conference was still on ESPN we'd be #3. How do we know what's in the black box?
September 4th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
Yeah seriously, im reading this post and the comments and i just have no idea where everyone is getting their takes from. We literally have no idea how fpi is calculated, there's no way to have a meaningful discussion about it.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
FPI is hilarious in my opinion. A hidden formula that nobody knows that purports to rank the teams but comes out with OSU above Georgia and Oklahoma above Michigan? It's a joke.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
Any data based model will likely be wonky after the first game. Getting worked up over fpi results after week 1 is like getting worked up over preseason polls.
September 4th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
We literally have no idea what goes into the formula so there's nothing to get worked up about, "wonky" or not.
September 3rd, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^
The internet as a whole is a content machine which relies on capturing as much of your time and attention as possible (the metric advertisers pay for).
The most salient emotions are anger and fear (needed most for survival--historically but not in the age of abundance), so if they can't scare you (news), they'll piss you off (media).
There's not been a single white collar job I haven't spied on where a large amount of time I saw them just dicking around on the internet, and if podcasts/advertisements are any indicator, I'd say a fair amount of blue collar jobs are plugged in all day too (when they can, due to safety reasons)
Some of the best minds of their generation (and some mediocre minds as well) have been heading over to silicon valley for the last 30 years to more or less figure out how to make these products more addictive--or how to distribute it more efficiently (and famously, none of them allowed their children to use any of it), some of the brightest people during my time at UM all headed over to work for those companies, some stayed, some only did a few years (Space X sounds like a nightmare), but all helped push the ball forward.
At least with evolution you are rate-limited, dealing with time-scales, incredible complexity, and competing organisms which balance nature and its organisms quite eleganty (the opposite of this we call "Cancer"), but these computer systems are operating in a totally abstract (literally away from the ground, place-less) and are able to hone in on our neurology like nothing we'd every encounter in nature (go look at the physical size of a lethal dose of fentanyl, it's the amount of crumbs on your face at all times lol)
This is all to say, be careful with this machine. Everyone is scared of the nuclear bomb blowing up the world, but the silicon semiconductor has already done so.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
Of course OSU looked bad. They went from a Heisman candidate (and possibly winner if it weren't for Michigan) at qb to whatever. McCord looked average and had a slate of WR that should make him look better than he is.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
McCord wasn't the problem, really. I mean he's not Stroud and won't be, but he was fine. The problem is they can't convert short yardage because the entire OL sucks at run blocking.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
Regardless of yards to gain they were 2-14 on 3rd down. Last year's team couldn't pick up short yards on the ground, but they could pass in those situations against most teams. This year's OSU doesn't seem to have that, and regardless of McCord's development, their OL seems like they may struggle with pass blocking too.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
It’s an embarrassing weakness of theirs. One of their fourth down failures in the game last year was highlighted in one of the previews last week. They went play action with two to gain. Harrell correctly dropped off with Stover, Stroud had to over throw it, Stover is not a great pass catcher, so, Michigan ball. Just gobsmacking that they have so little faith in runblocking in that situation.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
At the Aug 26 NIL event I asked Jaylen Harrell about that play. He and the person next to him (don’t remember who it was) said that Stover was not Harrell’s assignment on that play. I don’t know who was supposed to have Stover or what the plan was but apparently Harrell very much did that on his own and made a great save.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
They have 3 new OL starters this year
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
OSU hasn't been good at picking up short yardage for a few years now. They've always relied on the passing game to save the day. But that was when they had Stroud.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
Fun Speculation and facts from Saturday
Is Fred Moore really better than both Harrison Jr. and Egbuka from OSU!!??!! ............It is still early, but Saturday Stats seem to indicate "yes!" (Moore 2-18, Harrison 2-18, Egbuka 3-16)
Donovan Edwards was within 1 yard receiving of the combined total for both OSU stars. (He also had 37 yds. rushing)
Max Bredeson had a better yard per reception than Egbuka, Harrison Jr., and Julian Fleming
(Not expecting this to last but will enjoy it as long as possible.)
September 3rd, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
OSU has no run game and no run defense (they were able run blitz all they wanted because IU’s passing game is high school level and still looked soft) against the B1G East’s worst team.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
Michigan and Penn State didn't seem to "fall" two spots, as much as FPI moved Notre Dame (2 wins already) and Oklahoma (huge blowout) above them. Michigan and Penn State didn't look unimpressive, so fall doesn't land right on my ear.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
I get what you're saying, but rankings are ordering teams from best to worst. If someone leapfrogs you, you've been slid over in the ordering of teams. Their "efficiencies" may have stayed the same or even improved as you point out, but they're no longer ranked as highly.
In theory it is possible for a team to start out #3, improve their efficiencies throughout the season and then get ranked 5th and miss the playoffs. The playoffs are rankings afterall.
September 4th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
Man that's a lot of words to say nothing
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
Completely and utterly irrelevant.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
In other words, prime board content!
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
They obviously took there foot off the gas at the end and had a much more conservative (win and go home) approach in comparison with a lot of teams yesterday.
I’m also not going to be too critical of the team after a win in week 1. JJ played great and although the talent was always there and he’s had very good games in the past as an total NFL draft geek this really was the first time I think he really looked like a potential 1st rd pick. Linebackers and run defense in total played really well.
However……Let’s not totally kid ourselves about why this game wasn’t a slaughter fest. It certainly wasn’t because of the approach or 4th qter game plan. They only scored 30 points mainly because they couldnt break any big runs , heck even chunk yardage runs we’re prettt limited. They couldn’t take over the game on the ground, I force there will or break long TD runs. They do that and they put up a 50 burger by the 3rd qter without question. Let’s also not just write off how terrible Warren looked in his opportunity. They did let him throw the ball, and if he was actually moving the sticks he would have gotten alot more throws in. They didn’t just put in the backups and run up the middle every play. I don’t get to see practice but would really have liked to see Orji get a drive. Even they have a package for him they don’t want to show he could have gotten a chance to just run a regular drive but this was made difficult by the new condensed game and Warren not moving the ball.
Last note as an NFL draft geek (and i didn’t watch entire game but will probably look for an every throw cut up when I can) Drew Allar looked really good. Penn State is going to a problem and looks to be quit a bit better than the Ohio State this year.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
Let's see Allar do it against a secondary that can stay within 5 yards of the receiver first. Those were basically practice throws.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
They only scored 30 points mainly because they couldnt break any big runs ,They only scored 30 points mainly because they couldnt break any big runs ,
We scored 30 points in the first 36 minutes of the game. That's all you need to know. Literally the only thing I find noteworthy about the last 24 minutes of the game was the missed FG. Placekicking may be an issue. Beyond that, it was garbage time.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
still too early to compare the elite teams
I'm pretty sure playing at Indiana is a bigger challenge than at home vs East Carolina
But it's fun to compare so let's do it!
Based upon QB play, PSU and Michigan are the going to duke it out for the BIG with Michigan 3-peating. Couldn't tell much about our running game, but our QB sure looked impressive.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:57 AM ^
PSU has a necessary but not sufficient type of performance. Run game looked good, but not explosive. Pass game they ran a lot of screens, bubbles, and first read was pretty much always open. Impressive pocket presence from a young QB. Defense didn’t seem quite a suffocating as I expected against a very limited O that did not want to pass. Not sure how good WVU is but their D was terrible last year and I think a lot of people want the coach gone.
September 3rd, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
FB is a game of matchups. PSU’s perennial Achilles Heal is terrible OL plan. They’re also suspected by Alex Drain of not having much as far as DT’s. Until they play a team that can exploit that (see week 10) what they do isn’t particularly meaningful. There is no team on anyone in the B1G’s schedule who approximates UM.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
I'm holding off on any judgement of OSU for now. Indiana might not be good, but they're still a B1G team with what looked like a decent defense.
I just looked and see that McCord only had 20 pass attempts all last year. Maybe Day should've thought about the future instead of padding Stroud's stats for a Heisman campaign in blowout games. Hell, Davis Warren had half as many attempts last year and Michigan doesn't throw the ball nearly as much as OSU.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Interesting. I love data!
But, at this point of the season, it's not at all instructive or predictive of anything.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Decent WVU team? Says who? They were picked by the media to finish last in the BIG XII.
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
Yeah, maybe not decent. FPI had WVU ranked #58 going into the game and in the same ballpark as Nebraska.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
OU could be a playoff darkhorse which is odd to say since its OU but after last season I certainly didnt expect much of them. If their offense is back with Gabriel and Venables can boost that defense, they might waltz in. Don’t know who else is gonna challenge them. We will see how Texas looks against Bama
September 3rd, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
Thing is with PAC12 and Big12 everyone is going to catch someone's 45 or 52 point game. Even Colorado now for the PAC12. In the BIgTen you arent rolling through 6 competent offenses. Maybe not even 3 if the schedule is right. UM,PSU, and OSU have a huge disadvantage as far as divisions go (Its like Georgia, Bama, and LSU in the same division) but the rest of the league, at least offensively, is ass.
September 3rd, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
Well, you know who isn’t a playoff dark horse, TCU. I know they lost some firepower, but just watching their whole caliber of play, it’s embarrassing that we lost to that program. UM 2023, should not lose to any Big 12 program of the past 20 years.