Day 1 Draft Grades are out - Lions dont score very well
Well it's time for people to evaluate the first round of the draft and give their "grades" to the respective picks. Basically it's a chance for the talking heads to compare where they thought a player would get selected vs where the player actually got picked. Players picked higher than the talking head thought they'd go equals a bad pick and players picked lower than projected equals a good pick.
That being said virtually nobody liked the Lions pick of Gibbs while most were ok with Campbell.
NFL.com graded the Lions as a C- (tied with Miami for lowest score)
PFF graded both Gibbs & Campbell as "below average" picks
CBS Sports gave the Gibbs pick a D and Campbell an A-
The Athletic gave the Gibbs pick an F and Campbell a B
Bleacher Report gave the Gibbs pick a D and Campbell a B
Do you agree with these grades? FWIW I wanted the Lions to take Robinson with the 6th pick so I like the idea of a RB (even though everyone's crushing the Falcons for taking him so high) but I'm really not sure about Gibbs at 12. IMO he would've probably been available in the 2nd round and would've definitely been there at 18 so I think the Lions missed a big opportunity to improve their DL last night.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
I found this Scott Bell tweet to be pretty apt.
Was it just me or was ne not a difference maker at Alabama behind that Oline with Bryce Young at QB and the offensive weapons they had. Robinson and Brown were the two best RB's in the draft imo.. Certainly not Gibbs.. not even 2nd rd for him. Not trying to dog the guy cause he's a really good player. Then again, I'm an arm chair guy and don't get paid.
Conversely, he was a huge difference maker on a terrible Georgia Tech team
I don't like the pick either, but we're going too far here. Gibbs led the Tide in rushing AND receptions. He tied for the lead in TDs. He had over 1600 scrimmage yards and average 7.8 yards/play.
He was really good.
Lions Matt Millened that pick. It produced a "WHOOAAAA!!!!!!" from everyone in the studio like MM used to do on the regular. As in - WTF??? nobody had this guy going in the 1st 50 picks.
They coulda kept trading down and still taken him in the 2nd. It's the Lions after all and they've been out maneuvering everyone for 6+ decades.
nobody had this guy going in the 1st 50 picks.
Hyperbole? First place I checked, 3 of the 6 mocks had him in the 1st round:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft/
Not that these mocks bear any resemblance to NFL draft boards, but still, the "whoa" comes from the cognitive dissonance of fans who ingest that stuff for 4 months
They coulda kept trading down and still taken him in the 2nd
I don't know how you (or anyone) could possibly know that. Wrong or right, if they felt he was a top 10ish value, it only takes one other team to feel that way and steal their guy.
Yeah, fair bit of hyperbole there. He was mostly mocked as a late first/early 2nd round pick from what I've seen. Even Bijan Robinson was mocked in mid-late first round.
He was mostly mocked as a late first/early 2nd round pick
And yet the Lions took him at 12.
And it was a pick that was MOCKED. As it should have been.
I should have also noted that mock drafts further confuse the matter because they are predictions as to what NFL teams *will* do (based on positional need, etc), not what they should do
Going back to CBS Sports, Gibbs was their #14 overall prospect in the draft, even if the predictions were that he'd go later than that
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/
That's because Scott Bell doesn't know anything about the NFL and football.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
i loved the trade down. i don't like their picks so far. i would like them to get levis. and a good shot he will still be there for their 2nd round pick.
They need to go with Joey Porter Jr and pass on Will like they did twice already. He’s not a starter quality NFL QB.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
Time will tell and I have so little knowledge when compared to NFL scouts but I was surprised by both picks. Most mock drafts had both of the players the Lions selected going somewhere in the second round. I guess I'll assume that Brad Holmes knows more than those who write the mock drafts; he certainly has more at stake. My fan brain wishes the D-line or defensive backfield had been bolstered last night.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
It's like the Jim Harbaugh approach (hopefully). Take guys who fit your system and are character guys, disregard rankings and take team needs who are positive locker room guys. Time will tell but it's almost like they said screw the overall big board completely. Still not a fan of those picks, trade down from 12 again...
April 28th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Right. You can also do that the Belichek way: trade down again to accumulate even more picks and still get your guys.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
They tried to trade down, they were calling people before the draft about pick 18, no suitors. This is an odd draft with a bunch of "good players" but not many "studs," so trade downs are difficult.
Per the Walter Football link below, other teams were also ready to scoop up both guys in the ensuing several picks, so I guess they just made the call to grab their guys.
Well Jax did it twice to pick up 4th, 5th, and 7th round picks. I don't think it was THAT hard.
"It’s no disrespect to the mock drafts, I get it’s not the guys that everybody had in their mock drafts and all that stuff, but frankly, we don’t care.
-Brad Holmes
Very refreshing take.
As someone else noted there’s a lot of “good” players in this draft but not truly elite. Gibbs has a chance to be close to elite even if his positional value was lower than others. Detroit got good value.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
Holmes gets the benefit of the doubt until it's proven that he messed up. Gibbs is electric and Campbell has a very high floor. All talk about them being available later on is hypothetical, and if Lions really wanted these two guys then there's no point in waiting, especially since they have 4 more picks before the draft even hits pick 90.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
Speaking as a Browns fan I think what you're seeing is the impact of John Dorsey in your front office. He's as anti-analytics as Gettlemen was with the Giants (which is probably why their best friends) so he's going to pick "football guys" first, last and always.
With the Browns he had a couple of nice hits Chubb in the 2nd round and Ward with pick 4 in the first but a whole lot of big misses. Hopefull Campbell turns out good but I really dont like the Gibbs pick at all.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
The thing that has to be taken into account though is that the Lions are drafting to win right now, not drafting to build. Gibbs adds a passing element that they haven't had because Swift is always hurt and isn't an elite route runner. Also, his addition allows for the trade of Swift for which they should at worst get another draft pick or two.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
Yeah, the talk around Gibbs being redundant because of Swift presupposes that Swift is actually a reliable back you can use in this offense and not a guy who keeps getting hurt, struggles to get consistent yardage running the ball, and as you noted isn't a great route runner. I assume Gibbs will replace Swift and the Lions will trade Swift for a 4/5 round pick in a year.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
Swift is on the last year of his rookie deal. If they're trading him, it won't be in a year. It will be very soon, possibly before the end of the draft. Very good chance he has played his last down as a Lion.
How are they going to win now? They are an average team at best. Their best WR is suspended for a third of the season. Their QB is in the bottom third of the league. They are playing to win the worst division in football. They had a chance to get great for the next five years and totally fumbled that opportunity. Neither of the players they picked will likely get a second contract. RBs and head-hunting LBs have very short life spans in the league.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
John Dorsey? When did the Browns fire Sonny Weaver Jr? I mean drafting Vontae Mack, an OSU LB at #1 overall was ridiculous on its own merits, but basically that whole organization seemed like a shit show based on that documentary, Draft Day.
Giants are still digging out from under the Gettlemen mess
April 28th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
All talk about them being available later on is hypothetical
The Witherspoon pick at #5 was a reach, and the Lions wanted him at #6. Same with Gonzalez at 12. There's no guarantee that the 2 players they picked would have been there if they waited.
I saw footage of the Lions war room when the Gibbs pick was announced and they were ecstatic. That says more to me than any talking head who's trying to create clicks for a web site.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Maybe no guarantees but it's likely that Gibbs would be there at 18. So if you want him and don't like the other guys at 12, trade the 12 for two high second round picks, take Gibbs at 18. I guess there were rumblings that maybe someone else selects him before 18. So maybe it works out okay but definitely raises some eyebrows.
But then very, very likely that Campbell would be there at 34 or elsewhere. So IMO you arguably reached with a #12 pick but okay (plus you are overpaying for Gibbs now because you chose him at 12 vs 18). But then it appears you definitely selected Campbell too high.
I don't hate the picks, I just hate how the positions were managed.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
With regards to Gibbs being there at 18, a few things. On Thursday afternoon an agent tweeted that Gibbs was being mocked way too low and that he would be going top 20. There’s also been reporting since last night that the Jets wanted him at 15, and, New England, who had been linked to the RB position, traded down right after the Lions took Gibbs. A lot of evidence he wouldn’t have been there at 18.
On top of that, Holmes said last night that it was laughable that mocks had Gibbs going in the 50s. Reportedly quite a few teams had an elite grade on Gibbs. This class is short on elite players as is. I have little issue with the selection short of it generally not being a great idea to go RB in the first.
I'd have loved if he weren't there at 18, then we'd have been forced into a smarter pick.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
I'll double-down on your statement that the Lions will be overpaying for Gibbs. Objectively, recent history supports your position.
The #12 pick in the 2023 draft is projected to receive a (5-year?) contract with a total value of $19.2 million. https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/how-much-money-do-first-round-picks-nfl-make-2023
No NFL champion since 2009 has had a leading rusher make more than $2 million as their base salary. https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/how-much-money-do-first-round-picks-nfl-make-2023
I was surprised by both of the Lions' picks. They're not jaw-droppingly awful picks, but they're reaches.
Gibbs was excellent/electric at Alabama, but championship NFL franchises rarely select RBs at #12. I even think Bijan at #8 was a reach. I expected the Bucs to take Bijan at #19, or the Eagles to trade down from #10 and take him before the Bucs were on the clock.
Campbell was a tackling machine at Iowa. That said, many of the NFL backs Campbell will confront in open space will have similar athletic skills to Corum. Unless the Corum TD was a random outlier, Campbell might never become an elite NFL ILB that can destroy any ball carrier from sideline-to-sideline = not worthy of an #18 pick.
Campbell's measurables are pretty damn good, though.
So are Ben VanSumeran’s.
Gibbs is an 'airback' ala McCaffery. He's not going to be your traditional RB
However, Gibbs will be certainly more cost effective than retaining oft injured Swift who will be coming off his rookie contract. IMO opinion Gibbs makes more sense than Bijon since they invested in Robinson for the next 3 years and Swift is unreliable.
The point of being a reach is highly possible, but we aren't in the trenches or in the "know".
championship level teams don't select at 12 at all. I hate that the lions took the 2nd RB that high.
I'm a little more forgiving on the #18 pick, outside of the top 10ish I think there are two types of players, extreme boom/bust types or high floor guys. I think it's unreasonable to expect every pick in the 15-25 range to be an elite NFL talent. Campbell probably will not be an elite NFL linebacker but if he's a solid starter through his rookie deal i think that meets expectations for the pick.
The infamous play that you are referring to VERY RARELY happens in the NFL. Did Corum juke Campbell out of his jock.... absolutely. But watch the replay. Campbell had no shot at making that tackle. The DL was caved in and the DE was in the process of being Michael Oher to the sideline.
In addition, it was 3rd and short. Brain is thinking 1st down...1st down...1st down. The size of that hole (and expanding faster than a super nova) is rarely ever seen in the NFL.
Did Campbell look foolish on that 1 play. Yup no question. Does Campbell 2 years of leading Iowa in tackles make him a good ILB... Yup...
I stated it before and I will say it again. You could put almost any LB in that situation (run full speed at Corum with a gaping hole ever expanding hole) and 99.9% do not make the tackle
What’s crazy is Bush at the college level probably makes that tackle but he’s mediocre in the NFL. Campbell probably has a better pro career than Bush has had.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Not a chance Campbell would have been there at 34. He's the best LB in the draft on a lot of boards and was being mocked in the mid to late first by most "experts."
We know the Lions tried to trade back and couldn't, not sure why people keep throwing out, "they should have traded back" like they just tell other teams what to do.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
That reaction after the Gibbs pick was a total fake it until you make it deal. They were all still crestfallen they didn't have a chance to take Stroud or Spoon at 6 and clearly had never wargamed that scenario. Dan came over and told Brad they'd be OK with Gibbs so Brad starts the fake rah-rah
Guys really like decision they made. I'm shocked.
Were there non-ecstatic war rooms after picks last night? It's a made for TV event.
After the Bills leapfrogged the Cowboys to take Kincaid, the Cowboys war room looked like a collection of dudes that just watched their dog get shot.
They were ecstatic
April 28th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
And once he is proven to have messed up they fire him and start all over again.... it's the lions way.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
100% Watching Gibbs highlights he has great vision and patience in the run game and gets great separation running routes. The linebackers that tried to cover him didn't stand a chance. Between him and St Brown Goff will have some nice windows to throw to. Also, being a former teammate of Jameson Williams, perhaps he can have a positive influence on him to get him on the field.
Ben Johnson's going to have some nice weapons to scheme with.
April 28th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
Small nitpick- Gibbs and Jameson were never teammates. Gibbs just transferred in from Georgia Tech.
Wonder who gets '1' jersey