Comparing our path with the 'ville's
In the tourney we have beaten, in this order, kenpom's:
- #103 S. Dakota St.
- #16 VCU (more like #35 taking out that Akron JV game)
- #9 Kansas
- #2 Florida
- #8 Syracuse
Not to mention before the tournament we played:
- #3 Indiana twice
- #6 OSU twice
- #10 MSU twice
- #11 Pitt
- #13 Wisconsin twice
- #20 Minnesota
- #23 Iowa
That's fifteen games against the kenpom top 25.
Louisville in the tourney (also in order):
- #221 NC A&T
- #31 Colorado St.
- #29 Oregon
- #7 Duke
- #17 Wichita St.
Before the tourney:
- #7 Duke
- #23 Mizzou
- #8 Syracuse thrice
- #11 Pitt
- #13 Georgetown
That's twelve games against kenpom top 25.
In the tourney, our avg. and median opponent kenpom ranks are 27.6 and 9, respectively; Louisville, 61 and 29.
Before the tourney, our avg. and median top 25 opponent kenpom ranks are 10.7 and 10; Louisville 11.1 and 8 (Syracuse 3 games out of 7 will do that).
Yet, b/c all the games are factored in, kenpom has our strength of schedule at #8; Louisville, #12. I guess we had a lot more easy nights in November and December, because the above suggests our schedule was a helluva lot tougher.
What really stands out is when you stack our pre-tourney top 25/tourney aggregate schedules side-by-side and sorted by rank:
| Michigan | Louisville |
|
2 |
7 |
| 3 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 |
| 8 | 11 |
| 9 | 13 |
| 10 | 17 |
| 10 | 23 |
| 11 | 29 |
| 13 | 31 |
| 13 | 221 |
| 16 | |
| 20 | |
| 23 | |
| 103 |
Rankings are updated as games are played. Our fire-bombing of them dropped them from #1 to #2. All the rankings I listed are current.
How can Florida be ranked ahead of us after last Sunday?
Because KenPom's rankings are not an eye test. He doesn't simply rank a team where he thinks they should be. They are a strictly statistical analysis of the teams mostly based on offensive and defensive effiecencies and strength of schedule.
Michigan's path to the title game has reminded me of Bruce Lee's Game of Death: as the team ascends the levels of the pagoda, they face increasingly dangerous opponents, each one with a different, distinctive style. The first level is dominated by a quick, dynamic point. On the next level, havoc. On the next, a giant that deflects shots. Next, a squad that rains daggers. On the next, a phalanx.
On the top-most level of the pagoda is the "boss-level" (to borrow gamer terminology) the all-around number-one seed.
Who knows? Maybe, like Kareem, they'll be sensitive to bright lights.
I don't know, I think he may have lost a step.
I like to think of them as the Elite Four at the Indigo Plateau from original Pokemon games. All different styles, and Louisville is Red who you face at the end.
Oh no! McGary Oak!
holy generation gap, batman!
I attempted to write this exact post yesterday but it was turning out way more confusing than the way you described it so I nixed it. For this I give you one Normal sir.
to just stack games played. I would think that stacking up important wins, or stacking up the losses, would be a better comparison.
Note Kenpom also lists a non-conf SOS which supports your theory - Michigan is #65 and Louisville is #38.
Michigan has lost 7 games to:
- #140 Penn State
- #12 Wisconsin (not #13 as noted above)
- #12 Wisconsin
- #10 MSU
- #6 osu
- #3 IU
- #3 IU
Michigan has 8 wins vs. the top 25 of Kenpom:
- #2 Florida
- #6 osu
- #8 Syracuse
- #9 Kansas
- #10 MSU
- #16 VCU
- #20 Minnesota
- #23 Iowa
Louisville has lost only 5 games to:
- #43 Villanova
- #35 Notre Dame
- #13 Georgetown
- #8 Syracuse
- #7 Duke
(losses seem to tilt towards Louisville: better quantity 5 vs. 7, better ave. 21 vs. 26.5, worse median 13 vs. 10, and Michigan has the worst loss to #140)
Louisville has 5 wins vs. top 25:
- #7 Duke
- #8 Syracuse
- #8 Syracuse
- #11 Pitt
- #22 Missouri
(wins seem to tilt towards Michigan: better quantity 8 vs. 5, and Michigan has the best win over #2, but doing an ave. or median comparison is still arbitrary without including *all* opponents)
Playing the Top 25:
- Michigan (8-5), Louisville (5-5), advantage Michigan
Playing the Top 10:
- Michigan (5-4), Louisville (3-2) - both 1 game over .500
Playing the Top 5:
- Michigan (1-2), Louisville (0-0), and that win was last weekend and impressive.
How about those common opponents?:
Syracuse
- Michigan 1-0, Louisville 2-1
Pitt
- Both are 1-0; Michigan won by 5, Lousville won by 3
Most importantly, Louisville has faced a gauntlet of "M" teams, but can they get past the final challenge?:
The Michigan Difference.
Ah, you beat me right before I posted below!
Great side-by-side analysis.
Argh, Penn State....
for a fellow late night stats person
I don't think Michigan's path has been as impressive as this might lead you to believe, though.
Sure we played more top teams. But we didn't necessarily beat them. Playing Indiana and Wisconsin twice isn't impressive seeing as we went 0-4 against them. On top of that, Florida's Kenpom ranking was misleading from the start. Just like Pitt's high ranking.
I think both teams have had it pretty even when it comes to their key wins/paths here. Michigan had some nice wins against Kansas, Syracuse, MSU and OSU. Louisville had some nice wins against Duke, Syracuse, ND, and Georgetown.
Good analysis though. It's always fun to see just how tough the B1G was this year.
NORMALLY the #1 overall seed has an easier road through the tourney than a #4 seed. Only normally though...
I've been hearing that Louisville's defense is too good to overcome.