College Football Nerds here to own one we got wrong
One of the hallmarks of our show is being brutally honest, often to the detriment of our own growth, but also taking Ls when we should.
Last year we introduced a narrative around the PSU/Michigan game that we took a lot of heat for from Michigan fans. And most of the heat was fair. Some of it wasn't. And in later videos we got things wrong, including our PSU video this week.
At the time, we were trying to discuss how that game was closer than many wanted to admit, and mentioned that PSU led at the half. That's not technically correct, as PSU retook the lead the first drive of the 2nd half. But we stand by the spirit of that point (which only comes from memory of watching, and not reading off a box score) even though it's semantically incorrect. Josh was referencing that alleged error, which was brought up a ton last year, but we both lost the narrative a bit as to how narrow the accuracy of that point was.
Where we erred is in stretching that point to suggest that Penn State was competitive due to having a lead, particularly on offense. Penn State's defense kept them in the game and eventually wore down by a larger and more physical Michigan offense. But PSU's offense was entirely inept vs the Michigan defense. That was a game of inevitability where Michigan was always going to win. I'm not sure if we've always had that wrong, or if the facts of the game got twisted due to all the pushback, but, regardless, we didn't remember it correctly now and the error is obvious on rewatch. Any factoid of "Penn State led in the 2nd half" is itself an anomaly, and not useful in evaluating the teams.
One of our concerns for Michigan has always been the sustainability of reliance on big rushing plays as a method of scoring. We were open critics of Gattis, and when he was running the show, UM scored on big plays but it wasn't something that scaled against elite defenses. That concern carried into 2022. Especially when you consider Michigan isn't a good red zone offense (60th in 2021, 42nd in 22 in red zone TD%).
So looking at the Penn State game last year, we were overly influenced by the idea that UM's scoring vs PSU on big plays was more a 'one off' than earned. When in reality, it was PSU's big plays that were more 'fluky' than Michigan's were (we saw this later with Michigan's consistent ability to hit them vs Ohio State and later vs TCU). Michigan driving the ball well, scoring on big plays, and sometimes settling for field goals in the red zone was just who they were week in and week out.
So we want to take the L where Michigan fans are most concentrated on the internet. We'll take the L in future videos as well for non-Michigan fans to see. It's really a mistake to say the PSU-UM game was competitive, or especially to say that the teams were closer than the score indicated (if anything, it's the opposite).
We cover a ton of teams, and make mistakes. But we don't agree with the idea that we don't watch a ton of B10 football because we do. We do not post a preview without watching as much film of that team as we can, and did watch that game live. But that doesn't mean we always see what we should, especially when we have multiple live games on TV at once. So when we get something wrong, we want to own it as well.
August 22nd, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
Hey Nerds 👋
Big fan of the videos, keep up the good work.
So... now that UM is under one offensive coordinator, do you project more consistent success, specifically in the red zone?
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
They had a big jump from 21 to 22 in the red zone TD%. It should improve some more with JJ having a full year under his belt as a starter. First year of a new coordinator is all about getting command of an offense. Year two is about building on things that you know your players do well and eliminating the things you tried that they dont.
Moore having the full keys to the kingdom won't truly show until this year imo even though he's been in the program since 2018.
Having said that, I do think that scoring on big plays is just part of who UM is. My guess is they'll run JJ more in the red zone. He was under utilized as a designed runner last year in my opinion, and a running QB is a huge weapon to get TDs instead of FGs.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:13 AM ^
Didn't need JJ to run much last year. Where Moore has to grow as the sole OC this year rather than Co-Oc last year is knowing when to open up more with JJ. No reason to run JJ just to do so.
This year will have to adapt the run game with pulling lineman as many big ten defenses will follow TCU's shoot the lber in the vacated gap. Where Michigan got hurt with that in the bowl game was losing Schoonemaker alfter already losing All, so down to Loveland and the 4th and 5th Te's hurt the run game while also having our Center limited and Corum out and Edwards still playing injured.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
I think running JJ in the red zone is a real weapon that can improve the general red zone woes. With a shorter field, it's a huge advantage to the defense defending the pass. Having to deal with one more variable of a running QB stresses the defense.
Georgia was hugely successful with this. They didn't run Stetson Bennett a ton, but did use him effectively as a runner in the RZ last year.
He went from 1-2 rushing TDs per season to 10 rushing TDs in 2022. And their RZ td% jumped 30 points from the year prior.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
This is it! Michigan needed to run JJ to keep the opponents honest. They didn't do it during the regular season, which meant they couldn't just pull it out of their hat during the post-season. Wasted opportunity.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
No reason to run JJ just to do so.
Running JJ is what opened up the run game against PSU & OSU which eventually led to the long TD runs by Corum & Edwards. They absolutely should’ve run JJ more.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Double post
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
Both are true.
JJ wasn't needed much, so they didn't run the plays that utilize his legs. So they couldn't start during the TCU game. Not enough reps.
Schoonmaker going down during the game hampered both run and pass plays, as the other TE's didn't rep those plays as much as he did.
Either one of these happened (JJ runs were a staple, or ALL/Schoonmaker stays healthy) and we are looking at a different outcome.
August 22nd, 2023 at 2:34 PM ^
You've touched on something that was a complaint of ours for early Kirby Smart teams (read: Jake Fromm in 2017) that they really had to adapt to. Fromm averaged less than 20 attempts/game, and less than 4 rushes/game in 2017 (and that includes sacks).
Then all of a sudden Georgia needs Fromm in the 2017 playoffs. In the NCG, he throws a season-high 32 passes, combined with a season-high 7 carries. That's going from 24 touches to 39 (a 50% increase). And if you look at the game chart, you'll see that Fromm's effectiveness really fell off a cliff in the mid 3rd quarter, which is not-coincidentally when he hit his normal game totals in reps.
The lesson learned there is you can't hit a switch and suddenly be something you weren't in the playoffs. The traditional coaching trap is to be conservative until you don't have to be, but conservative teams rarely perform well when suddenly forced into being aggressive. Georgia really wasn't effective in the post-season until they committed to a more balanced attack and Monken spent the year integrating Stetson Bennett and the passing game into the offense. I think Michigan very much needs to do the same in 2023 if they want to reach higher heights.
August 22nd, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
Thanks. This is not my original take though. A lot of posters here have pointed it out. I used to subscribe to the idea that one can turn a certain game plan on or off. With more exposure to the nuts-and-bolts of the game, I am realizing that's not possible.
Now that you bring in data...it's Game Over! :D
August 22nd, 2023 at 4:03 PM ^
"conservative teams rarely perform well when suddenly forced into being aggressive."
With occasional or intermittent exceptions, this is Michigan football since 1969. It's one reason our bowl record sucks ass.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:32 AM ^
The lesson learned there is you can't hit a switch and suddenly be something you weren't in the playoffs.
Absolutely. In the U-M coaches’ defense, though, you have to get to the playoffs first.
Shea Patterson hurt his ribs while running (scrambling) on the first play of the 2019 season. After a promising 2018—in which he was outstanding at making the right run reads—he was just kinda off after that injury, particularly in the run game.
If you’re a Michigan coach who lived through that, it makes perfect sense to minimize hits to your QB. Running JJ more probably could set U-M up better for the postseason, but it’s not as if there’s no potential cost to doing so.
August 22nd, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
There were plenty of reps from OSU and PSU. Not prepping him top run (in the 1st half) vs TCU cost Michigan its best chance to get control of the game early. The plays and reps needed to run them were there (and obviously repped enough), but IMO the coaching staff really blew it.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
Long time viewer, first time responder (You may see I even recently linked your JJ video on here :)
Don't forget the importance of having Edwards and Corum on the field together. I think when the field is compact, having 2 RBs of that caliber (one who can flex out) is a mismatch nightmare for defenses. They didn't use 2RB sets for whatever reason last year. I expect it this year and think it will be lethal.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
I don't expect to see it at all. We use that extra blocker at the point of attack. Plus do you want to use either of them as a lead blocker? Or a blocker of any sort except blitz pickup.
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
Blocking? Who said anything about blocking? Like UMfan said, “Having 2 RBs of that caliber (one who can flex out) is a mismatch nightmare for defenses.” Blake needs to up his screen, flat, and wheel route game, and if he does, you have unlimited permutations of what you can do with flexing either or both in a two-back set. Think of the speed in space and light power options!!!
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Sending Edwards to a flat should draw a LB with him. It’s basically the same as blocking the LB. If the D doesn’t respect that route, it’s not that hard to turn it into a wheel route for a big play.
Another option is to have one RB act like a H back and cut block the backside end on split zone, or slip that block and catch a pass in the flat.
I also like using Edwards the way Dalvin Cook was used against us in the Orange Bowl. Motion him out wide to see if the defense is man or zone. If he draws an LB in coverage, send him on a go route down the sideline. If he pulls a safety or nickel out, it can open a post route for a receiver or you have an LB on Loveland. In any case you can still run the base offense with Corum, and the defense will have to respect it. In that case, Edwards is essentially taking the place of Bell in last year’s offense.
August 22nd, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^
The problem with these thoughts is that having 2 RBs in means the defense is far more comfortable with an extra LB on the field (or even an extra DL).
Remember, if you have 2 RBs, you probably have 1 less WR, so the whole "putting a guy wide is the same as blocking" angle is definitely against 2-RB sets.
In my opinion and experience watching various teams, having 2 RB sets rarely works in your favor. The biggest advantage comes if your RB is a legit receiving threat such that you can split him out wide, as you can force other teams to put a LB in wide coverage. But few RBs run routes that well. Otherwise, you concentrate the play into the box that much more, and (importantly) you take away from your ability to constantly rotate fresh backs.
The latter part is important - I think 2 RB sets are most useful when a team has at least 3 high level RBs, because after those guys play several snaps you can rotate someone else in. A good example is that 2018 Bama would often put Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs (their #3) together, with Jacobs often being motioned out, because they also had Najee Harris (their #2) available to spell them.
Quick aside - this is the 4th time the "TruStage" ad has overtaken my screen such that I can't type in the comment box until it goes away. It's quickly been driving me mad ITT.
August 22nd, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^
The biggest advantage comes if your RB is a legit receiving threat such that you can split him out wide, as you can force other teams to put a LB in wide coverage.
You just summed up Edwards. Probably the 2nd or 3rd best WR on the team.
August 22nd, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
Right, which is why your best "2-back" sets are less wishbone and more of this:
https://youtu.be/GPsx-flAnKA?t=167
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
I don't think either would be a good lead blocker, but they can pull a defender away by turning into a passing option out of the back field. freezing a safety can pop either one for a huge gain. Same thing with JJ being a running threat. Just delaying a corner or safety showed a huge difference with JJ.
August 23rd, 2023 at 6:01 AM ^
There isn’t a whole hell of a lot I’d ever take from a James Franklin playbook. But using Edwards the way they used Saquon and Hamler would be 1 thing I wouldn’t mind seeing.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
Must preserve the usage and health of Dono and Blake. You'll seldom see them on field together.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
Must preserve the usage and health of Dono and Blake. You'll seldom see them on field together.
August 22nd, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
I'm a fan too.
I like the fact that you guys look at CFB on a national basis vs. only B1G. It gives us a sense as to what the national media is saying and thinking as it relates to Michigan.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
Big fan of what you guys do, keep up the good work!
FWIW, I remember that game feeling pretty inevitable as well, and it's not like you made some major slight with that one talking point. You're still far, far more objective than most of us are with regard to Michigan (or any fanbase really when it comes to their team).
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
Thank you.
Now we just need Urban Meyer to make his post apologizing about his claim that PSU would stop Michigan's run game.
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^
... while he's at it, Urban Meyer can apologize for being himself.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
Enjoy your content. Josh needs to get rid of that Sparty bobble-head/Funco on the shelf. Put something better looking up there.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
I’m happy for you, or sorry that happened
Jk - thanks for the apology, it’s rare among media folks that they own their mistakes so kudos to you for your integrity
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
Thank you explaining your biases and examining how they led you to your conclusion. I think that spirit of analysis, reflection, and self-criticism has long formed the foundation of MGoBlog proper and I (hope) that we can appreciate your candor.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
Cfbnerds,
What mgonerds appreciate about Mgoblog is the geeky analysis and breakdown of the games. I'm curious what you think of the analysis here. The writers here put a lot of effort into the work and I do consider them fairly objective (as one can be for a team-specific blog). What do you outside nerds think about the nerdage going on here?
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^
We interact on a number of message boards for the bigger programs. What we've found is that fanbases of blue blood teams, and their associated message boards, tend to have the better detailed discussions about the sport. All teams have their casual fans, but the blue bloods cast such a wide and large net, that they also have an outsized share of truly invested and obsessed fans.
This is the one thing I wish our followers from SEC country would realize. Big time programs have big time fans that are great to interact with when you're not fighting with them.
In spite of their success, we actually don't do very well with Clemson fans. The fan base isn't huge and their stretch of hyper success made the loudest among them hard to interact with. Every critique we had was met with very sensitive pushback. But when your expectations are championships, we're going to pick you apart. You want us to analyze you as a 'good' team with top 15 expectations, you'll get a softer version of us.
This is where we run aground with a lot of fan bases, but especially the Clemsons of the world. We're very good at analysis among the best teams, but lots of it comes off as negative. Because these teams are /so good/ we find it boring to constantly talk about what everyone else does - how good you are. We want to find out what might get you beaten (relative to expectation).
Y'all may not want to hear this but Ohio State is among the fan bases that are great to interact with. OSU, PSU, Michigan, Oklahoma, Alabama...These are programs with enough fans that they're going to have huge threads on spring games or scrimmages. Digging into the details of backup OLs. Those are our people.
MGoBlog is unique in that it dominates the Michigan fandom online - whereas other blue bloods are scattered. So you do get all sides here. But the depth and discussion here is great.
Reading the comments here is what made us reevaluate our take on the PSU game.
August 22nd, 2023 at 4:49 PM ^
Y'all may not want to hear this but Ohio State is among the fan bases that are great to interact with.
Shhh! Keep that under wraps!
You'll blow our cover as mouth-breathing cooler poopers.
August 22nd, 2023 at 6:02 PM ^
One thing I’ve noticed is all OSU grads I’ve met have been great, reasonable, and fun to have a conversation with. But folks who are just fans of the football team with no connection to the university are the ones who’ve been insufferable and illogical. That’s probably true about most fanbases but seems particularly true for OSU.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
Nobody tops MSU fans for irrational, illogical thought.
August 23rd, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
folks who are just fans of the football team with no connection to the university
That's actually me.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
someone in the media owning up and apologizing for being wrong instead of doubling down???
whats next, cats and dogs getting along?
N and S Korea becoming friends?
Sunni and Shiite Muslims walking hand in hand singing kumbaya?
Protestants and Catholics going to church together?
vegans and normal people eating dinner together?
it’s the end times guys.
but in all honesty I enjoy your content. keep up the hard work.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
Buckeyes and Wolverines.....hahahahahaha yeah right.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^
Didn't know Protestants and Catholics were at odds.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
That's a cool thing to do.
So if I want to hear more of your stuff, I'm seeing a YouTube channel and a podcast on Spotify. Is it all the same stuff on both? Things look split differently, but I *think* it's the same content. If I just listen on Spotify and skip YouTube, am I missing anything significant?
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
FWIW I prefer the Youtube videos because they flash stats on the screen while they are talking.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
If you're not going to watch but just listen, definitely the podcast. You get it all in one shot vs cut up videos. We do put up contextual statistics throughout the video and the comment section is really good. We have a loyal following of nerds.
But, to be clear, the podcast is the audio version of the YouTube video, but we consider the YouTube videos to be our primary content.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
I'm not arguing PSU would have won the game had they done something different and picked up a 1st down or TD .........
but the 3rd-and-4 play call on the opening drive of the 2nd half, when PSU was down 16-14 at the U-M 10. That was one of the most indefensibly dumb play calls I've ever seen. Fade pattern to a 5-10 WR against DJ Turner. Had about a 0.5% chance of working.
In the post-analysis of that game, that was a big "not maximizing the likelihood of success miss" by PSU's HC and OC when the score was still close - from a PSU POV, that isn't called out enough.
August 22nd, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
FWIW I thought your preview of M-PSU was quite reasonable for people who don’t spend the time Brian and Seth do analyzing at least one of the teams. I can’t hold anyone else to their standard.
Really cool that you guys are willing to explain your thinking and of course demonstrate great integrity.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
Hey we all get things wrong here and there. All you can do is be a sport about it and own it. Props to you guys.
Would love for this to turn into a "I was SO wrong about this" thread. First thing that jumps to mind for me is Harbaugh after the 2020 season. Thought this project was dead in the water and honestly just wanted to move on for everyone's sake. Would have personally driven Matt Campbell to Ann Arbor if he asked me to. I was wrong. Very wrong.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
We were wrong about that too. Literally did a video on how UM should hire Hugh Freeze. It sounds silly, but we had some good reasons why (that I stand by).
In reality, college football's collective ability to judge anything correctly during or years after COVID was completely screwy.
August 22nd, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
You had me, you really did...until Hugh Freeze.
Seriously? Did I miss the joke?
Could not imagine a worse fit in Ann Arbor or UM.
Wow. Stunningly obtuse.
Oh well, 'twas a fine mea culpa anyway
August 22nd, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
Well we acknowledged the bad culture fit at UM and why it ultimately wouldn't happen. Our point was that they needed an elite offensive minded HC to bridge a then-talent gap compared to the B10E and SEC.
We cited multiple examples of where coaches who win on offensive scheme quickly close the gap even against more talented teams. It's hard to make a significant jump on just "out working" and "out physicaling" other teams at an elite level - because they're working just as hard but have better talent.
I should add that it was a bit tongue-in-cheek, as the other half of the video was indeed talking about how it was a terrible culture fit and would never happen. The discussion was more about "what would it take if UM really wanted to win a title," culture be damned.