CFP Ranking 3 - announced tonight, what do you expect, or hope to see?
The CFP’s next set of rankings will be released this evening. There were no upsets in the Top 5 last week and, the most visible losses were by Oregon and UCLA, as well as Ole Miss coming up short at home against Bama. TCU showed defense, or perhaps it was Texas demonstrating inept offense - regardless, the Horned Frogs remain undefeated.
Last week’s Top 5
1.Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. TCU, and
5. Tennessee
This weekend has some interesting games, but it’s mostly David vs Goliath. Georgia’s at Kentucky, Tennessee’s at South Carolina, TCU travels to Baylor, and out west USC makes the long drive to Pasadena to face UCLA, and Utah travels to Eugene to face the Ducks. Oh, Bama hosts Austin Peay - can’t forget about that one.
The CFP seems to be positioning two SEC teams in the Final Four. The B1G champ will be in, two of these three SEC teams - Georgia, Tennessee, or LSU (if they win the SEC CCG), and TCU if they are an undefeated Big 12 champ.
The matchups in two CCG’s are already set - Georgia will face LSU, and North Carolina will face Clemson. The other three P5 conferences are still to be finalized.
The B1G East second place team has to hope for some havoc, in the form of TCU losing, USC losing, and LSU defeating Georgia in the SEC CCG.
What are you hoping for, or, would like to see?
November 15th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
I have to disagree with the final point, Georgia is in no matter what, I'd like to see LSU lose to eliminate any threat of them possibly getting in, I think Georgia losing doesn't help Michigan at all
November 15th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
I agree, I think Georgia is likely in either way, so let's have them beat LSU to completely remove the Tigers from the equation. No need to keep an extra SEC team on the menu of options for the committee.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
Beat OSU
November 15th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
If there's a window, the committee is 100% putting Tennessee in there. Only way I see the committee being forced to exclude an 11-1 Tennessee would be the B1G, ACC, Pac12 and/or Big 12 champs all being 1 loss or better. And even then, I think there will be a faction within the CFP that would advocate for a 1-loss Tennessee to get in over a theoretical 1 loss Big 12, Pac12, or ACC champ
Edit: and I know the window where our SOS is the deciding factor between 4 seed and out of the playoff is slim, but man if that happens are we gonna look dumb for ditching UCLA for another tomato can home game
November 15th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
I would like to see/hear someone say, "TCU played Tarleton State (FCS). That's a knock on their schedule. Their conference wins are not as good as it looked a month ago."
TCU does not have a win as good as Michigan's and OK State is probably going to be the only ranked win on their schedule. TCU is basically winning a middle class version of the B1G West. Shoot, even 6-4 Kansas is alive to make it to the Big 12 title game.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
If any plays a weak schedule, we say, "you can only play who you play!" If Michigan plays a weak schedule, we say, "They should have scheduled tougher teams!"
November 15th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
The ranking is ultimately Michigan's own fault. If the program hadn't weaseled out of the UCLA game, it would be positioned to potentially make the final four with a respectable loss to OSU and/or to be ranked #2 now. Michigan intentional facilitated a weaker schedule, and this is what happens when you do that.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
Agreed. That UCLA series, especially if Michigan won, would've been a huge CFP insurance policy in the event Michigan loses to OSU. But they backed out, and if they lose a close game to OSU, they will very likely (and probably justifiably) be left out of the CFP because of it.
Its pretty infuriating that Michigan has set up, and then proceeded to cancel all on its own, series with Virginia Tech, Arkansas and UCLA. I'm honestly halfway expecting that Warde will end up cancelling the Texas and Oklahoma series as well.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
Texas and Oklahoma currently look like middle-class B1G West opponents.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
I hate this take so much. Scheduling a tough opponent increases the chance of a loss. So you’re assuming a win vs ucla or an Oregon or whoever, but you also may lose and have a loss going into osu. Then you’re definitely not getting in with a “respectable” loss to osu. Michigan with one loss to osu will always be in the picture. At the end of the day, they can talk about strength of schedule, but the brand and ratings carries more weight than that when all is said and done
November 15th, 2022 at 1:16 PM ^
UGA, Tennessee,TCU, LSU, Alabama and Clemson played FCS teams. That should be a hit to their schedule. No one talks about that.
Our issue is that our conference sucks. Rutgers and MSU are bad and November Maryland has shown up in full force. Our crossover opponents have been disappointing as well. If MSU, Iowa and Nebraska had a pulse, no one would be talking about our schedule.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
I expect more of the same. Trying to pump LSU and Alabama higher up, trying to push the 3 sec team narrative that the winner of the Michigan/Osu game is in the other is out, an if tcu loses 3 sec teams should be in... Blah, blah, blah espn is so full of it
November 15th, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
Looking at UCLA beating USC this weekend. TCU dropping a game somewhere and that leaves Georgia, Michigan, Tennessee and OSU in the playoffs. Best ratings ever definitely means something.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
I would like to see TCU, USC, Clemson win out, leaving the CFP as:
1. SEC Champ undefeated Georgia
2. B1G Champ undefeated UM/OSU
3. B12 Champ undefeated TCU
4. PAC Champ USC > ACC Champ Clemson
I want conference championships to matter, and the only narrative that keeps multiple SEC teams out of the CFP are multiple one-loss conference champs.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
Conference Champs imo should get every tie breaker, including record. So an 12-1 Conference champ will not be left out for an 11-1 team that didn't win it's conference or division... Tennessee... namely..
Conference Champs should be the primary goal for selectors.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
I hope to see beat OSU in a little less than two weeks.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
1. Georgia
2. OSU
3. Tennessee
4. TCU
5. Someone with a better out of conference schedule
6. Michigan
November 15th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
Why? Tennessee still only plays 9 P5 teams, Lsu only plays 9 p5 teams so why does OOC schedule matter when Michigan still plays 9 P5 opponents just like the SEC? Add in, Michigan doesn't play FCS teams, though one might have counted Hawaii or Colorado St this year but that's not Michigan's fault that a couple g5 opponents were terrible! Why should Michigan be punished when LSU and Tennessee have already played, Southern U and Tenn-Martin as FCS schools. Bama plays the mighty Austin-Peay this week...
November 15th, 2022 at 11:28 AM ^
Nothing changes from last week. 1st, at this point, nothing but ESPN filler and clickbait. Win this week and next, then time to cook with gas.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
I wouldn't be surprised if they put TCU above Michigan this week, just based on resume alone.
But ultimately none of this matters, because our most important schedule-boosting game is @OSU, and honestly the winner of that game will be a lock for #2 in the CFP barring an unexpected loss this week or in the Big Ten Championship.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
I expect to see Herbie giggle like a little girl talking about 2 sec teams getting in the playoffs
November 15th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
Well, the SEC is the best conference in the country. A&M was a Top 10 team in the pre-season, and Auburn was never ranked highly enough. Even a team like Vanderbilt beat a team (Kentucky) that was a Top 25 team during the season.
I can see someone advocating a CFP of.. Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, and Bama - in no particular order.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
No change in the Top 5. Things will change in two weeks. If TCU wins out, they'll be in the CFP. TN could get in if either Michigan or OSU loses on the 26th, better red goes down and the Maize and Blue win.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
I expect us to beat the Illini.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
I don't think we'll see any changes in the top 4, or ordering of the top 4. TCU beat a 3 loss Texas team that should have never been in the Top-25 to being with.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
Beat ohio
November 15th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
Everything you've posited seems likely. The two most likely upsets that would help us would Baylor over TCU and SC over Tennessee. I just can't see a two loss Tennessee team making it in, and TCU can only make it in if they're undefeated imho.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
TCU losing to Baylor probably doesn't eliminate them. If they're 12-1 with a conference title they'll have a good argument to make it in over 11-1 Tennessee or the B1G east second place team. They will have a lot of good wins.
But it does mean that if they also lose the conference title game to take two losses, they're out.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
No two loss team should ever make the CFP. LSU lost to FSU who I believe is terrible.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^
Hard disagree.
Mostly because this kind of binary thinking is what makes teams schedule terrible, boring non-conference schedules. If you have a tough schedule, if you have a lot of good wins, if you have close losses to good teams, if you have a conference title, you absolutely should still be able to get in with two losses.
I think LSU's lopsided home loss to Tennessee is what should keep them out. But absolutely a two loss team should be able to make it. Especially as the Big Ten and SEC consolidate the best teams and their schedules become even more difficult. All moot once the playoff expands to 12 though. Not sure when that happens but there will be plenty of 2 loss teams and probably some 3 loss teams (as there should be).
November 15th, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
Doubt there will be a change in the top 6.
And you mean the B1G East champ is in (obviously like 95% chance they're also the conference champ but the East winner can likely lose the title game and still get in).
Also, the BIG East second place team does not want LSU to beat UGA, unless LSU somehow already has three loses. UGA isn't dropping below the East second place team and LSU would likely then jump the East second place team.
Obviously we want everyone ranked in the top 7 to lose. The best chance for this is USC. So go UCLA!
November 15th, 2022 at 1:34 PM ^
LSU losing and Tennessee losing are what fans who want 2 B1G teams want to have happen. LSU with 3 losses, Bama and Tennessee with 2 losses is the only way you’ll see only 1 SEC team in the playoff. Even that doesn’t exactly pave the way for the B1G.
Oregon can beat USC in the PAC Championship to eliminate the PAC. TCU losing to anyone probably eliminates the Big XII, and Clemson losing to UNC should eliminate the ACC.
With those dominoes falling, you could see UGA, OSU, Tennessee and UM slide in for a two conference playoff. The loser of the UM/OSU game will need to keep it close while the winner blasts the B1G West representative in the Championship Game.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
The love for Bama and LSU will continue.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^
I expect nothing other than UM still has to beat OSU to get in. All the rest is smoke.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^
I disagree with those who think that scheduling UCLA would make a difference if Michigan loses to OSU. While it's possible that it makes a slight difference, I think that difference is less than the likelihood that Michigan would have lost to UCLA so I think that NOT playing UCLA had a net positive impact on making the CFP.
There are 4 more years of the current playoff structure and then in 2026 the 12 team playoff will make it less of a detriment to play a challenging OOC game. Plus the B10 schedule should be better once USC and UCLA (and others?) are added.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
Why do you think the Michigan osu loser wants to see LSU beat Georgia?
November 15th, 2022 at 2:18 PM ^
I expect to see Michigan in a position where if we beat OSU we'll be in the playoffs. All the rest is just details.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
Bama should jump LSU, despite losing to LSU, because it was an overtime loss on the road, and then they beat ranked Ole Miss, while LSU escaped a loss against a terrible Arkansas last weekend. TCU deserves to stay over Tennessee with their record after beating Texas, even though they showed every indication of not wanting to beat Texas in the game itself.
November 15th, 2022 at 3:10 PM ^
I would like to see Michigan jump over OSU solely based on the UConn win over Liberty
November 15th, 2022 at 3:16 PM ^
We don’t want LSU to beat Georgia, since that would make a strong case for LSU and Georgia to make the playoff out of the SEC. Best way to prevent 2 SEC teams from getting in is a Tenn loss OR undefeated TCU + 1 loss conference champ Clemson and 1 loss conference champ USC.
November 15th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
We want 2 big ten teams right? I certainly think OSU and UM are clearly in the top four teams in the country, regardless of who beats the other.
For that to happen though we’ll need chaos.
- TCU to lose to Baylor and maybe lose again in the B12 CCG
- A 2 loss PAC12 champ
- A 2 loss Clemson if they win the ACC
As Brian has noted, we won’t (and shouldn’t) get in over any 1 loss conference champ if we lose to OSU, and we probably won’t get in over a 1 loss Tenn in the same scenario.
November 15th, 2022 at 3:44 PM ^
Most interested in seeing where USC and Clemson end up as I see those two schools being the biggest obstacle to the loser of Michigan/Ohio State getting in if everybody else runs the table. Both schools to be honest haven't looked good at times even with only one loss
November 15th, 2022 at 5:10 PM ^
Does losing Bill Poggi make our SoS more competitive?
:)
November 15th, 2022 at 5:48 PM ^
The committee like the AP is seeking to ensure that the SEC fields at least 2 if not 3 teams in the final playoff field. Tennessee will get in by winning out and avoiding a conference championship because it beat Alabama and LSU. So because that's the case, LSU can only get in if it somehow beats Georgia, which won't be eliminated by a loss.
LSU will be eliminated with a loss but will advance with a win. No other conference has a chance for 2 teams.
The crucible for playoff entry is Alabama. Beating the Tide is seemingly the measuring stick. Because Michigan and Ohio State are rightfully viewed as the only teams with a playoff pulse in the B1G and not up to par with any team in the SEC despite their yearlong ranking, one will be obliterated from playoff consideration with a loss in their season-ending showdown.
All the other conference prospects, TCU, Clemson only make it by winning out. But there will be a debate over their status. The PAC12 really has no shot.
When you rank four conference teams in the first eight, you are giving away your political bias. Whether the SEC is the most superior conference is never challenged geographically because the conference never schedules itself outside the sunbelt region. Arkansas and LSU played in 40 degree temps last Saturday and the fucking game was treated like the the Ice Bowl in Green Bay.
November 15th, 2022 at 6:52 PM ^
Go Blue, Beat Illinois!