Case for 1 Seed????
With Kansas losing today it seems as if Nova has the last 1 spot. However the 2 seeds in order (using bracketmatrix and switching Nova and Kansas) are Kansas, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Michigan. If we do a simple comparison of the 5 schools we see
4. (RPI rnk) Villanova 27-3 24 SOS 5-3 vs Top 50
3. Kansas 23-8 1 SOS 12-7 vs Top 50
5. Wisconsin 25-5 2 SOS 8-3 vs Top 50
9. Virginia 25-5 28 SOS 3-4 vs Top 50
10. Michigan 22-7 6 SOS 10-5 vs Top 50
Now as of today I think of the 5 teams only Wisconsin has a gap over us. Kansas has 1 more loss, and a vs winning% vs Top 50. Villanova and Virginia both have SOS's that are about 20 spots lower than ours and arent close in wins vs top 50. I know their records look really good, but I remember in 2012 when MSU (27-7) had a 1 seed over 30-4 Missouri. One cause for concern is that 5 of our top 50 wins are vs Stanford, Minnesota, and Nebraska who are 46, 49, and 50 respectivly in RPI. So hopefully they all win this weekend and if Nebraska wins then that is a loss for Wisconsin which helps our case. Obviously, all 5 teams have conference tournaments left so we still have a lot of basketball to see.
If we beat Indiana and win the BTT, it's a legit possibility. Might need some help from the other teams struggling in their conference tourneys though
If we got the No. 1 seed, it could move us our of the region (provided Wichita State holds serve), so I think I'd rather see us at a No. 2 or 3 if we stay local. Then, provided they make the Sweet 16, they're playing in Indianapolis, rather than Memphis, NYC or Anaheim.
the key is to get the seed over wisky. that way, we are likely to stay in the midwest over them; milwaukee then indianapolis.
Agreed.
No offense but we've been over this ad museum. There was even a post on the front page.
It would be VERY tough and we'd need an insane amount of help.
In the end, just we're in the tournament. If we win 1-2 more games we're a lock to be on the 2-3 line and that gives us a solid shot at some favorable matchups.
We literally need 4-5 teams not to win another game (regular or tournament) and we need to beat IU and win the B1G to sniff the top line.
So I'm not being a complete ass...here is the thread I was referring to: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/seed-watch-2014-who-root
It basically breaks down everything that we need and concludes that we're pretty much a 3-seed. Maybe a low 2-seed if a few things go our way.
and you are right, being in the tournament, it doesnt matter what seed you are but I just think we have better resume's then Kansas and Virginia who are two teams that most people have above us right now. Villanova doesnt have that great a resume either I guess, but their record beats us out. So realistically I dont think we get one either, but just starting a discussion.
LOL
Is this an autocorrect?
It's the muesum of advertisements. There Super Bowl wing is awesome. Last time I went I actually ran into the real "Jake from State Farm." Who actually wasn't as creepy as the dude from AT&T that sits in an emtpy classroom all day with different kids from different nationalities.
LOL - yes, it indeed was autocorrect.
MSU got one a couple of years ago with a record nearly identical to us with a strength of schedule near ours. Of course State has been overseeded a couple of times because they have Izzo but that team might have been worth it with a 3 game winning streak to end the sason. Actually now that I look at it, they didn't really have as many big wins as we have and finished the regular season on a 2 game losing streak.
Hard to say MSU has ever been overseeded. They're been one of the most overachieving teams in the NCAA tournament during Izzo's tenure:
but not the most......
But I'm happy with either a 2 or 3 certainly. It's so great now compared to the not so distant past when we'd be either outside looking in or praying for a tournament berth to fall in our laps. Last year's run was like a dream and very unexpected given our youth. It will be fun to see what happens this year.
Fwiw Launardi thinks that if Michigan or Wisconsin win the BTT that they could very well steal a one seed. Especially since Kansas lost today. That, and Virginia could easily take a loss from UNC, Duke, or Syracuse in the ACC tournament.
Be careful what you wish for. I think Wichita State is the best team in the country. Florida almost lost to Mississippi State and Auburn.
Not happening. Only argument for UM getting a #1 seed ahead of the Kansas/Villanova/Wisconsin/Virginia despite 2-4 more losses is the volume of games and wins against RPI top 50. The problem is--if you sustain that argument, then Kansas has an even better case than UM (19! games against RPI Top 50--which sucks as a ranking tool but still, that's impressive).
Even a #3 seed would be the highest seeding of the Beilein era. With any 2/3 seeding, I like UM's chances to get to the Elite Eight. Pretty amazing from this team. Who saw that coming after the non-conference season?
I would agree with others - it would likely take winning the BTT and a slide from a few other teams (Kansas helped out a little today perhaps) for use to get into 1-seed territory. If you go by what TeamRankings throws out there for estimated probabilities for a 1-seed, we sit at 15% with Kansas, Wisconsin, Villanova, Florida, Wichita State and Arizona ahead of us, the final four in that listing being their projected 1-seed right now. Right now, I see us as an easy 2-seed and a 3-seed at the lowest, and that's probably where we begin the dance.
If Michigan can get another shot at Wisconsin in the BTT and go on to win it all I believe the committee would have a serious discussion about Michigan as a 1.
...I think that's exactly what it would take to even be in the discussion for a 1 seed.
I'd rather be the two seed in the same bracket as Witchita St.
The one seed who has to face OK St, OSU, UK and Baylor won't have it so easy.
However, I have my reservations about them making it all of the way to the elite 8. Two of their three games on the way will probably be more difficult than most games they've had this year. I could see them slipping up. I think they're a strong one seed, but I also see them as the one most likely to slip up en route.
I will say this, I'd much rather play an undefeated Wichita State than a 1-loss Wichita State. If they go into the tournamant without the pressure that comes with being undefeated I think they're a much more dangerous team...
a loss helps a team. It does nothing to change their mindset.
That will take care of Wisconsin, since that necessarily gives them one more loss, either to us or someone less goof than us. Probably need Nova and Kansas to lose -- and I'm not sure who you want coming through the ACC tournament. It's possible, but Arizona and Florida have a #1 locked up, as does Wichita State if they win tomorrow, and maybe do anyway. It'll take a lot of help. But a 2 is easily obtainable. A win today gives us an insdie track.
If I can channel John Beilein, I think he would wave his hand dismissively and say, "that's out of our control. We play one game at a time. If we continue to win all our games, we'll be fine."
Obviously, I'm not John Beilein, and I don't know what he'd say. But he has been pretty consistent in FOCUSING on what you can do, instead of OBSESSING about things outside of your control. That seems a good way to view this (and a good life principle, to boot!)
The one thing I'd add: if we do indeed win out through the BTT, that means that either we have defeated Wisconsin, or someone else has. If that happens, undoubtedly we would be seeded higher than Wisconsin. It also would seem logical that at least one other team ahead of us, if not more, would lose in the same period. Duke, Syracuse, Kansas, and Wisconsin are all stumbling, and this won't hurt us.
Really, more important than seeding is how Michigan is playing right now. The stronger they get, the better it is. I'm actually glad that Michigan lost several games in the Big 10 to Indiana, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This forced Beilein to deal with the schemes drawn up to negate Stauskas, and will only help in the NCAA tourney.
My ideal is a 2 seed or 1 seed in the Midwest region, allowing for shorter travel times and better representation from fans. In fact, if they end up in Milwaukee, I'd consider driving up to the Bradley to look for tickets outside the door for my son and myself.
This is a sports blog. Isn't "OBSESSING about things outside of your conrol" the entire point of this site?
Villanova and Virginia both need to lose a game. Minnesota, Stanford, and Nebraska all need to stay in the top-50 RPI. Michigan needs to win tonight, win the BTT against Wisconsin in the finals.
After all of that they then need to hope that the committee decided they needed to have alternate scenarios that allows for the winner of the BTT final to have an impact on seeding since the game concludes 30 mins prior to the selection show.
I mean... what if the BTT final goes into double OT? They could announce the brackets before the game is even over!
What are you thinking Delaney? OH RIGHT.... you're the only game on in primetime on selection sunday == TV eyeballs == TV money.
have alternate brackets. Once they had 6 going into that sunday
MSU was overseeded two years ago. They were a 1 seed with a 27-7 record and proceeded to lose in the sweet 16.
They use their own metric, BPI.
It seems like a pretty trash formula, but it's hard to tell when they won't release what it is.
It's best to ignore it, the selection committee won't look at it at all.
From a psychological standpoint of starting the tourney pissed off with something to prove, I'd rather see us at a 5 seed than a #1 seed.
From a program standpoint, you'd always like the #1.
No case. But why is Wisconsin #2 over Michigan when Michigan won the Big 10?
...that there's no shot.
If we win the B1G tourney, we'd be outright regular season and post-season champions of the best league in the country (at worst 2nd best).
Recall what the committee values:
- Playing a tough schedule, esp. in the part you control--your non-conference (top 10 SOS, at Duke, at Iowa State, vs. Arizona, Stanford on neutral floor)
- # of top 50 wins (we'd have two more given B1G tourney champs, to make 12, only 'Zona and Kansas would have as many or more)
- How you finish (would be 8 straight and 10-2 last 12)
- RPI and kenpom rankings would both be comfortably top 10 at that point, maybe even top 5 depending on how others do
If we win out, I don't think it's remote; I think it's a strong argument. And if others lose early in their conf. tourneys, I think it's likely.
And by the way, 8 of the last 10 national champs have been 1-seeds. If you want to win 6 straight games in the Big Dance, you need some (relative) cupcakes in there.
Probably will have to win the Big Ten, but I'm not going to be upset with a 2 seed (and even a 3, assuming we lost early in the BT, isn't a big deal). I think this team will be fine in the NCAA Tournament.