Big Ten Tourney Mich/Wisky Predictions
Michigan plays today at 230 pm ESPN against Wisconsin. This is game number two on the revenge tour. I think Burke and the boys will gut one out today and get the win. This game we need to transition a lot as I hate playing Wisky's pace. If we score seventy today will win. Let's go get it today.
Michigan 66
Wisconsin 59
64-56. Not a lot of scoring and I really don't see us pulling away, althought I will say this: I feel like in tournaments THIS YEAR, we seem to play alot better and with a little more swagger and hustle for whatever reason. I think it is just more of our players style, the run and gun type games where they play 3 or 4 games in a week so I like that. I think it has something to do with a lot of our players being young and when you're in high school you tend to play alot of tourneys so I think they are just more used to that. I could be way wrong though. If that is the case, then I say the score ends up being 72-58. (that last score prediction doesn't count for credibility, I just wanted to post it for fun in case the Michigan team from early in the season comes to play).
Michigan by 7 sounds good... too good to be true.
I would imagine we win by 5 or less. Secretly I hope we beat them by a miracle half court shot, but that's just me.
I love where your head's at, winning by a half court shot. That's awesome. We could then watch as Bo Ryan's head exploded.
I'll go with 74-66. I feel like Michigan's going to put a run together and can't be stopped. Wisconsin is going to have to play a little more of Michigan's pace today.
while that would be awesome, I really hope that that is not the case. Simply because I will not be able to handle the stress leading up to that point.
March 15th, 2013 at 12:38 PM ^
I want to save the miracle half-court shot for a game in the Final Four. Then again, the basketball gods haven't yet paid the Wolverines back for the Evan Turner prayer. Michigan has two miracle shots coming.
That's true. I think it's time for Michigan basketball to make a withdrawal from the Bank of Karma. We've made plenty of deposits over the past few years.
88-25 Michigan.
I think M will win, just like they should have in the regular season.
We must break them
GO BLUE
Here's today's table of possible outcomes first. Massey didn't have updated numbers, so these probabilities are from TeamRankings, which usess a slightly different algorithm.
| Illinois / Indiana | Wisconsin / Michigan | OSU / Nebraska | MSU / Iowa | ESTIMATED PROB. | ON SATURDAY… | |
| 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 4.338% | Illinois / Wisconsin | OSU / MSU |
| 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.93 | 0.31 | 1.949% | Illinois / Wisconsin | OSU/ Iowa |
| 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 0.69 | 0.327% | Illinois / Wisconsin | Nebraska / MSU |
| 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.147% | Illinois / Wisconsin | Nebraska / Iowa |
| 0.13 | 0.48 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 4.004% | Illinois / Michigan | OSU / MSU |
| 0.13 | 0.48 | 0.93 | 0.31 | 1.799% | Illinois / Michigan | OSU/ Iowa |
| 0.13 | 0.48 | 0.07 | 0.69 | 0.301% | Illinois / Michigan | Nebraska / MSU |
| 0.13 | 0.48 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.135% | Illinois / Michigan | Nebraska / Iowa |
| 0.87 | 0.52 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 29.031% | Indiana / Wisconsin | OSU / MSU |
| 0.87 | 0.52 | 0.93 | 0.31 | 13.043% | Indiana / Wisconsin | OSU/ Iowa |
| 0.87 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 0.69 | 2.185% | Indiana / Wisconsin | Nebraska / MSU |
| 0.87 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.982% | Indiana / Wisconsin | Nebraska / Iowa |
| 0.87 | 0.48 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 26.797% | Indiana / Michigan | OSU / MSU |
| 0.87 | 0.48 | 0.93 | 0.31 | 12.039% | Indiana / Michigan | OSU/ Iowa |
| 0.87 | 0.48 | 0.07 | 0.69 | 2.017% | Indiana / Michigan | Nebraska / MSU |
| 0.87 | 0.48 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.906% | Indiana / Michigan | Nebraska / Iowa |
| 100.000% | ||||||
The line on the game is Michigan -3, which I admittedly sort of like. Here's a familiar scenario where, on offense, we are the more capable team in most metrics. Our effective FG% in the conference is 53.1%, compared to 46.9% for WIsconsin. We also average 12 points more per game than they do for scoring, and we even have a slight edge in offensive rebounding as well as assists.
On defense, we give up 1.02 PPP to Wisconsin's 0.91, and we allow opponents an effective FG% of 49.0% to Wisconsin's 42.0%, so I would think that we need to use what we did in the 2nd half yesterday as a model. Get into that same rhythm and try to avoid having Wisconsin bog us down in that half-court game that works so well for them. Stretching the defense to the perimeter would help as well. On a neutral court, if we can keep in motion and limit easy 3's from the Badgers, I can see Michigan edging this one out, but perhaps not by much. I'll go with 65-60-ish and we survive to Saturday.
Michigan.
but I agree with Michigan by 1-2 points.
I'll go Michigan 60-59.
I also predict that McGary is going to have another big game.
63-56 Michigan
Just saw Massey's win probabilities for the game, they give Michigan a 65% chance of winning and like a 67-63 final score.
100-0 Michigan
Trey Burke with 99
Vogrich with 1
Wisco 63
ON TO INDIANA for the 3-peat-re-match tri-fecta!!!! (trying not to look ahead, but i can't!)
but that is quite an interesting sig.
the show Entourage, Ari Gold/Jeremy Piven has a reputation for blowing up on people and has some funny one-liners, my signature being one of them...you would have to watch the show to understand why the quote is so funny and how it is directed at Johnny Drama (another show character)
thanks for the explanation. You didn't seem like a troll, so I should have guessed your sig was a joke/reference of some sort. Looks like you're only a few weeks old . . . Welcome to the MGoBoard!
March 15th, 2013 at 12:54 PM ^
i've been reqading this blog for over a year and decided to finally join in the conversations!
March 15th, 2013 at 10:39 AM ^
Fun Fact: Ari Gold went to Michigan. I believe it was for his MBA.
and an undergrad degree from Harvard (they seemed to imply Economics the one or two times it was brought up).
Trey Burke and THJ will be composed, but ANGRY during this game. We will win by about 4-9.
Or Wisconsin will take three point shots from 40 feet and go 11/12.
56-53 Blue.
I still think Wisconsin controls the pace in this one. But I choose to be optimistic and predict a close win. I'll change my mind if I see an all-red figure with horns and goatee sipping a hot drink behind the Wisconsin bench and whispering in Bo Ryan's ear during TV timeouts.
March 15th, 2013 at 11:08 AM ^
So, Bo Ryan is Barry (large guy on the left). This is how I picture him being in cahoots with Satan.
March 15th, 2013 at 11:29 AM ^
Yup...exactly how I envision Bo Ryan's relationship with the Dark Lord. Great find.
I will be angry at Bo Ryan whenever ESPN shows his face.
I predict I will be frantically updating the game thread trying to glean any info I can as to how the game is going. 2:30 game start work starts at 3:00 evil!
how or by how much I care not...just win and move on
Michigan wins it 76 blerns to 68.
67-64 Michigan.
No half-court shot for the tie this time.
Just win!
GR3 reminds me of a poor man's Tracy McGrady. McGrady was turrible his first 1-2 years and then really came on. We need GR3 to come on big, like now man. Too passive, not aggressive enough rebounding, misses too many 3s and free throws.
The athleticism is there, but he needs to step it up if we are going to go deep in this tourney.
UM by 1 on a missed Wisc half court shot.
I have been waiting waaaaaay too long to get rid of this empty feeling
March 15th, 2013 at 10:00 AM ^
Michigan 59
Wisconsin 55
Oh, did you guys know that Stauskas isn't just a spot up shooter?
March 15th, 2013 at 12:27 PM ^
you Dan Dakich?
March 15th, 2013 at 10:01 AM ^
Whiskey prediction: Michigan loss will result in much being consumed
March 15th, 2013 at 10:08 AM ^
Whichever way the game turns out.
March 15th, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^
How many points are we going to spot them before we come roaring back for the win?
I think we spot them only 6 in the early going, and then we'll end up winning 64-52.
March 15th, 2013 at 10:31 AM ^
I like our chances today. Let me throw this out there for discussion: No B1G teams have played in the United Center for at least a year or two. It's always tough to calibrate to a new gym and start getting into a groove with respect to shooting. I think teams that won yesterday are going to have a huge advantage in the first 10-15 minutes of the second round games. Hopefully Michigan can get out to a quick start and step on Wisconsin's throat while they are acclimating to the shooting lines in the United Center.
March 15th, 2013 at 10:32 AM ^
watching Wisconsin score 45 points in a 47-45 win.
March 15th, 2013 at 10:35 AM ^
Other than a Michigan win of course, the thing I want to see the most today is another Ryan Evans jumpshot free throw
March 15th, 2013 at 11:38 AM ^
Does anyone know if the jumpshooting routine has worked for Evans?
EDIT: According to Madison newspapers, he started jumpshooting FT's in the late season Nebraska game, so that makes him 5/8 jumpshooting for a 62.5% FT rate. Not a strong sample size, but he has improved his season FT % to 42% due to his jumpshot. And he's shooting 8.7% from beyond the 3 point line.
March 15th, 2013 at 10:39 AM ^
I was out of town on business for 3 days this week, got home late last night. One of the first things my wife told me was that she bought me a 6 pack of Guinness. She knows nothing about beer (hates it, in fact), but got this one oh-so-right. Good omen. Michigan wins this one comfortably, 68-59.