Being a Michigan fan means understanding that the underdog does win occasionally - especially in UofM MSU game

FWIW, we were the underdog in 2005 and won.

 

Are we all supposed to create our own prediction posts or just the homers?

Has MSU ever had a team as bad as ours in recent memory? I can't think of one. Even their 2002 Bobby Williams team wasn't as bad as this team. 

I can't even remember the last time we won a game we should have lost....Maybe when RR beat Wisconsin? Has Hoke ever pulled an upset? I mean, I know after the game statistics made it look like we won some games we should have lost, but have we actually gone in as an underdog since Hoke came and pulled off an upset? I can't remember one.

I'm probably going to make you feel worse but here goes. 1. MSU's teams in 1978, 1990 and 1999 actually ended up being good squads. 2. Yeah, they got away with mugging Desmond on the 2 point conversion in 1990, the ref gave them a bogus extra yard on their game winning drive when we had stopped them on 4th down in 1995 and Spartan Bob gave them the extra second and the ref decided to ignore the massive holding on the game winning play in 2001...all painful blown calls that screwed us but for the rest of those games, those MSU teams put up fights that Hoke teams are completely incapable of putting up, especially the last two years, especially on the road. 3. MSU's teams in 93, 95 and 2001 stunk but they weren't the train wreck we currently are. Those teams were 6-6, 6-5-1 and 7-5. Do you see us winning 6 games this year because I certainly don't. 4. Harbaugh broke his arm in 1984 in the first half. Once he was out, that win was in the bag for MSU. Conner Cook isn't going to break any bones. 5. And being a Michigan fan means knowing that Michigan should never be the underdog in this series, as we weren't for 45 years. Now we're at the point where the majority of us believe we can't stay within 4 touchdowns of MSU. How fucking depressing is that?

It would be a historic upset, just because it is usually Sparty who sucks and Michigan who is ranked.  Michigan isn't used to being in the "spoilermaker" role because they are usually an elite program.  Michigan still leads, 68-33-5.  

Anything can happen in this game.  If Michigan is the team that plays with more passion this time, they can pull off the upset.  It would be perfect and just desserts for the couch-burners who built both their basketball and football programs on Michigan's misfortune.

So what you are saying is that we have a history of playing down to crappy teams, especially in East Lansing?  Gee, that does make me feel better about this Saturday.

You'd have better luck with this post if you pointed out all of the times we've upset MSU, or won big games on the road, or heck even been competitive on the road, or... oh.  Now I see why you did it your way.

Sorry, but there is a less than 5% chance that Michigan wins this game.

These do not factor in the "Brady Hoke Coaching Factor" though.

Most of the big MSU upsets were a home game for MSU.  Having home field advantage in a game of emotions is huge.  If it was a home game for us we might have a shot.  Combining it being away for us plus Hoke's road problems it makes the odds almost impossible.  

They didn't need luck to win.  They kicked our butts for three quarters while we played musical chairs at QB and still made enough plays to hold on in the 4th. Then went out and beat Florida in the Citrus Bowl. 

Also, in most of those other years you listed, those games were in EL. I wasn't old enough to follow them in 1978 or 1984, but I thought Gibson was on the '78 team and Harbaugh was injured in 1984.

It's good to see some people still have optimism, but I just don't see us having any advantage in any area in this game.  It will take at least 2 Sparty turnovers (like last years OSU game) for us to stay in it.  Unfortunately, we don't create many of those.  We'll see what Nuss is made of this week.  He's had two weeks to prepare. 

We'll probably finish 5-7 this year. I'm 96 percent sure we'll beat Indiana and one of NW/Maryland.

I went through this last week for my own curiosity. I looked back on every "bad" Michigan loss I can remember, and at the times Michigan knocked off really good Ohio State teams. Bad news: very rarely (prior to 2008) has Michigan been knocked off by a truly bad team. 

1990 - those MSU and Iowa teams that looked mediocre at the time ended up sharing the B1G title with Michigan and Illinois

1993 - this MSU team was .500, but the game was also in EL. The Illinois team Michigan lost to at home, on the other hand, was bad. So there's one

1996 - OK, that Purdue loss is pretty hard to justify. It was in awful weather and involved that stupid goal line fumble by Will Carr, but no two ways, it was a bad loss. There's two

1999 - Illinois loss was ugly, blowing, I believe, a 20-point lead in the 3rd, and at home. That team DID finish with 8 wins, though...

2001 - even without Clockgate, the MSU loss was to a mediocre team. But, again, they play like fucking lions in EL (the animal, not the NFL team), it's never easy no matter how bad they are. OSU was really pretty bad that year too, but I'll give a slight pass on both because if Henson's playing instead of a not-ready-for-prime-time Navarre, Michigan probably plays for the NC that year

2004 - ND and OSU were both mediocre, but, hey, they weren't BAD (especially OSU), and...rivalry road games. Shit happens. Also, frosh QB

2005 - Minnesota = bad loss, no getting out of that one. Bowl loss to Nebraska pretty rough, but...bowl game. Shit also tends to happen there

2007 - App St, yeah, 3-time FCS champs, but...#5 team in country (albeit overrated), at home. Bad loss

So, as you can see, it's not really that common. And those teams that beat undefeated Buckeye squads in 1993, 1995, and 1996, really weren't particularly mediocre, they just frequently had things not break their way in their losses, and then played their hearts out against OSU. 

tl; dr - I am hard-pressed to find too many games in my time as a Michigan fan, whether Michigan was the underdog or the favorite, where a truly bad team beat a truly good one, at least on the scale of this team going into EL and leaving with a win Saturday.

Oh yeah, and this team also isn't well-coached. 

We took them to OT in 2009 led by Tater.

I realize that being on the road vs. MSU increases the challenge immensely.  However, the oddsmakers, in making MSU a 15.5 point favorite, presumably have assessed the degree of difficulty.  So, that made me wonder: what other games has UM won when the spread against. UM was that large?

I thought of the 1969 game vs. Ohio, when UM was a 17 point underdog.  In that game, of course, UM had Bo as a coach, was better, and had more to gain---ie a Rose Bowl bid (which now is as likely as an asteroid destroying East Lansing by Saturday).  On the other hand, Ohio then also was far better than MSU today (a clear #1 in the polls--some even claimed it was the best team ever).  

Regardless, UM won 24-12 and prevented an otherwise certain national title for Ohio.  What did it take to accomplish this feat?  While UM had no turnovers, Ohio had seven (including 6 interceptions and a fumble). When the UM players hoisted Bo on their shoulders, they did drop him once.  But Bo said that was their only fumble all day.