Athletic Article: Stewart Mandel projects UM in the Citrus Bowl
The insider's claim is that Citrus Bowl wants us which would pair us against Auburn. Honestly, the Holiday Bowl gives us a chance to go to the West Coast where we have a lot of fans and play maybe USC or Washington (teams we match well against). I love the idea of watching UM on New Years (even if not a NY6 bowl). I love it more when I think we actually have a shot. Auburn coming off an Iron Bowl win like that is probably not going to be pretty.
Thoughts?
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:37 AM ^
I can already hear the Big 10 vs. SEC narratives.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:39 AM ^
I put the over/under at 4 on starters/contributors who skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. With that in mind, whoever Michigan plays will win the game.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:35 AM ^
Name them.
I suspect Nico, but nobody else. Bredeson seems like a gamer, like he'll play in any game he gets a chance to play in. Runyan, I think, needs another game to further impress scouts (aside from a senior bowl type thing). Ruiz and Onwenu... I don't know, I have no clue where their minds are at. L Hill plays, as does Mettellus.
I will hold absolutely nothing against Nico if he sits it out. Dude is looking at a first round contract, has earned it, and owes us nothing. It would be disappointing, but I would approve. (So he has that going for him...)
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^
Nico in the first round? I've only seen a couple of receivers from Bama, one from LSU, one from Oklahoma, one from Clemson and Minnesota's Tyler Johnson projected in the first.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:40 AM ^
We should just show up to the rose bowl anyway
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:43 AM ^
Auburn would destroy UM.
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
SP+ has Auburn winning by 0.3 points.
Pi Ratings have Michigan winning by 2.7 points.
These ratings are usually pretty close to the Vegas spread and reliably beat it more than half the time.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:44 AM ^
Auburn is the most physical team in the country, they're more physical than Alabama or LSU. Their front 7 are animals. Normally I've wanted the best team possible for a bowl, was disappointed we got South Carolina and Florida the previous 2 bowls because we were big favorites and I thought they'd be easy wins, but that didn't work out well at all. Auburn is a big time program, I think we'd be solid underdogs, maybe Michigan +7 or +8.
I don't want them, 9-4 with an ugly bowl loss would really look worse than 10-3.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^
Their defense is nasty but they have a worse offense than Indiana, Penn State, and Notre Dame. I think it would be a race to 24, which I think we would win depending on who sits out.
If their studs on the DL like Bryant sit out, then us all the way. If we have a couple WRs out and maybe a CB, could get interesting.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:37 AM ^
Michigan just put up a bunch of yards on the SP+ number 1 defense. The only thing that worries me is motivation. Otherwise, bring on Auburn.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:49 AM ^
If all of our players play I think we would be a really good game. I would be 100% on board with Michigan v. Auburn in the Citrus Bowl.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:57 AM ^
Likewise for Auburn. Their best player, DT Derrick Brown, may decide to sit out bowl season to prepare for the NFL. With the way Patterson has been playing, I like Michigan’s chances against Auburn tbh
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
I’ve long considered Auburn our SEC bros (argument for Georgia too) and SP+ thinks we’re basically the same team lol so this would be a dumb game. If you could guarantee a win? Sure. But I think we have a better chance of going to beat a coachless USC team in the Holiday Bowl, with 103 people in a defunct NFL stadium.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:39 AM ^
+1 in favor of the cheap win opportunity against USC. The history books never include asterisks for "interim coach" or the like. A W is a W, and that is our best possible matchup of the three.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
I want to see Michigan play the best teams. I think Auburn is better than USC, so I would like Michigan to play Auburn. If we got to play the "next round" for beating our opponent I would agree but that is not the scenario. A matchup against Auburn presents on opportunity for a very good win for the Michigan program against a really good SEC team.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
Yup, and fuck USC. Kick them in the nuts real quick before they pay Franklin $9M a year for 4 years.
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
I've always thought that about Georgia....the Michigan of the SEC. Can see your case for Auburn too.
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
And I kind of like Auburn and really don't like Georgia...so I guess that makes us Georgia?
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
when Richt was coaching they were like us, now with Kirby "I learned from Saban" Smart it's a different story.
December 3rd, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
Yeah, now they're Wisconsin. Congrats to them!
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
Definitely rooting for Michigan/Auburn to meet in a bowl game. Have to like Michigan’s chances against a true freshman QB who barely completes 50% of this passes in big games. As always, B1G>Everything, good luck in your bowl game!
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:11 AM ^
It really shows the state of our football program when a buckeye fan feels sorry for us and is rooting for us. UGGGH. Glad the basketball game is on tonight :(
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
Nice post but sorry...
As always, B1G>Everything
Fuck that -- and Staee and PSU. I hope they lose every game they play.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
Citrus bowl has to take Wisconsin if they lose the bigten title game I believe. Michigan is 5th choice for bowl selection. They likely take Wisconsin over Minnesota. Penn St gets the Rosebowl and Wisconsin or Minnesota the Citrus.
Not sure they could choose Auburn either, Auburn as a 3 loss sec team is still behind Bama, Florida and Georgia for bowl selections as well.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
Not sure this is true. The Outback Bowl selected us over MSU for the 2018 game (2017 season). I distinctly remember the MSU bro'hood (led by Mirk, of course) whining that they should've been invited to that game instead of the Redbox Bowl (or whatever they went to).
Maybe the Citrus selection criteria is different, though?
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
Lots of incorrect stuff in this post.
December 3rd, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
FYI...Mandel stated in paywalled article that the Citrus Bowl is already locked in on Michigan/Auburn. It’s pretty much a done deal regardless of any outcomes this weekend.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
standings != choice
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:32 AM ^
Michigan just put up 27 points on the #1 defense and left another 20 on the field. I have zero fear of Bo Nix https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/2. While I'd much rather play a Pac-12 team for a change of scenery, Michigan is capable of beating Auburn if the seniors opt to participate this year.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:36 AM ^
Auburn is an intriguing matchup, but we'll probably get slaughtered. The Citrus Bowl is the only one I would go to (I have no interest in Jacksonville and can't make it Dec. 27th for the Holiday bowl), so selfishly I would enjoy this option.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
Tired of Florida Bowls...would rather see UM in the Holiday Bowl against USC
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
I would really prefer we don't play Auburn. Living in Alabama I am around many Auburn fans. They are generally much better than Bama fans due to lack of arrogance. The recent butt hurt by bama fans has been a wonderful relief. However, I am married to an Auburn fan and well that probably won't be good, no matter who wins.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
I don’t know why everyone is so scared of Auburn? It’s an SEC team we should be able to hang with pretty well. And beating them will make us look better because Ess Eee See.
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Auburn and Michigan have basically been the exact same team for the last 3 or 4 years, so that's a pretty intriguing matchup.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
But one team beats their rival while the other doesn't.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
If Michigan had Auburn Jesus, JT Barrett would have not only not converted that 4th down, he would have blown out both knees and burst into flames.
Auburn Jesus is not to be taken lightly.
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Auburn got outplayed in their game against Alabama. They caught some huge breaks in that contest.
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Auburn got outplayed in their game against Alabama. They caught some huge breaks in that contest.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
Per Bill Connelly at ESPN, SP+ fame:
"... it took a wild set of unlikely occurrences -- two pick sixes (including one deflected off of an offensive player's back), a missed short field goal for the loser, four long-bomb FGs for the winner, and the funniest and most important illegal participation penalty you'll ever see -- to knock Alabama backwards. (Bama's post-game win expectancy, a measure I elaborated on in this Chalk post, was 94%, meaning a team with the Tide's key stats in this game would almost never lose.)"
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
Against a high-riding Auburn team that just beat Alabama? Yeah chalk that up to a loss / another possible bowl blowout.
That Auburn team would eat this team alive. Especially if we have guys sitting out.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
Per SP+, Michigan and Auburn are nearly identically matched overall: Auburn #11 and Michigan #12, with Auburn favored by -.3 (that's a decimal there) on a neutral field.
This is true for Sagarin as well. With Michigan #8 and Auburn #10, with Michigan favored by -.25 (that's also a decimal there) on a neutral field.
ESPN FPI has Auburn ranked much higher, at #6 vs. Michigan at #13. That would equate to Auburn being favored by... drum roll... -1.4 points on a neutral field.
Those are the 3 primary statistical models, all saying even match. But why listen to those when there are badass randos like you available on the message boards of the world.
December 3rd, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^
I guess a team's momentum doesn't count for anything to you, does it?
I'm not saying metrics like SP+ don't count for anything, but Michigan and Florida were ranked pretty evenly in SP+ last year and we all saw how that went during the Peach Bowl. Those were two teams heading in opposite directions when they met up, just like Auburn would be compared to Michigan. They're riding high and full of confidence after beating Alabama on Saturday. Can you say Michigan's mindset will be the same when they trot out onto the field in a few weeks? I doubt that's something SP+ takes into account, but it damn sure has an effect on how a team plays.
I'm not some internet badass telling you that metrics are shit, but given recent history in how this team plays in bowl games after debilitating OSU losses, as well as Michigan's historically bad record in the postseason, its not unfounded to think a similar result could happen again this year.
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
It looks like Washington is going to be the new Florida.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:19 AM ^
At least it’s something different
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:19 AM ^
At least it’s something different
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
They want to go out west
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
Bowl games are total unknowns until we know who is playing and who is sitting out.
I checked Sagarin and he has us at #8 and Auburn at #10 so the advanced stats probably have this as a competitive game.
They looked more competitive in their losses:
They have a 3 point loss to LSU, we have a 29 point loss to OSU
They have a 7 point loss to Georgia, we have a 7 point loss to PSU
They have an 11 point loss to Floriday, we have a 21 point loss to Wisconsin
We have a larger margin of victory in our best wins
We have a 7 point win over Iowa, they have a 6 point win over Oregon
We have a 31 point win over ND, they have a 3 point win over Alabama
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^
I really don't understand the people who are deathly afraid of playing Auburn or are chalking it up as a blowout loss. Auburn offensively has struggled against good or better defenses this year. If it's because they beat Bama, than you must not have actually watched that game because Alabama dominated that game in terms of moving the ball and Auburn just caught big breaks to stay in it. They would have got beat by a similar margin as Michigan against OSU without them. Auburn would actually be the perfect team to me to play, would get more credit for beating them than a Washington/USC and I think UM's defensively would match up well. Auburn is very good defensively but OSU is better and UM showed they could move the ball on them when they were executing. I mean I get it we are all pissed and deflated from Saturday, but it should not mean rational thought goes out the window.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^
I mean I get it we are all pissed and deflated from Saturday, but it should not mean rational thought goes out the window.
You must be new here (and to the Internet in general).
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
We've been in Flordia enough.
Kinda getting old but I'm accepting our current status.