Anyone else think this Saturday's game is crucial to the season.
Hate the term "must win" and I know I'm opening up to snarky comments like "every game is a must win" or "every game is crucial". But in the scope of the season, does anyone else see this game is of particular importance because:
1) as was stated by Mark Ortmann at the presser on Monday, the team needs to pull its confidence back together and a young team dropping two in a row probably will hurt their confidence bad. Stopping the snowball effect is important.
2)Because, along with Purdue and Illinois, these three games may very well be the difference between 8-4 and 5-7.
2b) Beat Iowa and take care of business next week and they're guaranteed at least to not have a losing season. While that is no kind of goal for any player in any program, on some level it has to be a milestone for this year's team which hopefully will continue to pass more milestones with six games still to be played.
3) Gets them a road win which hopefully gets the monkey off their back before they go to Illinois and Wisconsin.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:43 PM ^
NO GUARANTEES!
October 6th, 2009 at 1:44 PM ^
No, it would be a nice win but I don't see a loss at Iowa at night as that big of a deal. Iowa is a tough place to play and a good team.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:59 PM ^
Iowa is a tough place to play. A win would be fine with me...however a loss wouldn't shatter my world nor should it shatter the team. I expect Michigan to bounce back quite well and give Iowa all it can stand. Remeber sparty played like someone was taking their football lives from them. I expect a phyiscal game with defense(as past games have shown when these two programs knock heads)making a BIG difference. Michigan is due for one atleast...hopefully this will be the weekend when the D makes a statement!
October 6th, 2009 at 1:45 PM ^
http://patcaputo.blogspot.com/
A loss would "put Michigan in a nose-dive."
Then again, his opinion is about as valuable as a degree from MSU.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:49 PM ^
I've just been compared to Pat Caputo. Not cool.
Thanks and L'Shana Tova to you too Shalom.
PS-Didn't you once say you were into Michigan Football photography. Have you checked out this? www.umich.cmarket.com
October 6th, 2009 at 1:56 PM ^
Thanks for the holiday wishes. Sorry about the comparison, no disrespect (to you) intended. I think your point that references the difference between 8-4 and 5-7 cuts too broadly.
The must-win games include Delaware State and Purdue (6 wins), but to really make the season special the team needs at least 8 wins (7 is good but somewhat expected, 8 would be above most people's expectations).
Illinois is an important road game and probably the most winnable of the road schedule. That puts Michigan at 7 wins, while winning at Iowa would push the win total to 8 (assuming victories over the others previously mentioned)it doesn't make or break the season considering Michigan has PSU, OSU and Wisconsin (away) to get that last victory. All of those games are tough but the Iowa game isn't easier than the others, the 8th win may be more likely at Wisconsin or in a home upset.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:05 PM ^
I agree, Illinois and Purdue are probably the easiest remaining games but I fear the results of a two game skid.
I also think that Iowa, although their defense is solid, has an underwhelming offense that probably isn't good for much more that three td's max. If we can find some way to solve their D, its a winnable game.
Look, how did Arkansas State come so close to taking them out last week????
To me its a combination of not letting a losing streak happen/gaining confidence with a road win and the fact that this Iowa team although defensively strong, isn't a juggernaut offensively.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:23 PM ^
But, If our offense can't overcome their defensive strengths, their offense will get more shots at us. We got a little bit of luck against MSU by holdig them to only 20 points in regulation. But, I belive that Iowa's O is better than that given the same opportunities we gave MSU. Our offense has to act like the first minutes of the 1st quarter are like the final minutes of the 4th quarter. Go down the field unyielding and with desire.
October 6th, 2009 at 3:41 PM ^
I'm too lazy to check his stats, but I have been impressed at his accuracy in the times I've seen him. Last week (granted it was against Ark St.) he threw some impressive deep balls, which is my defensive worry for this week.
October 6th, 2009 at 4:09 PM ^
Hopefully we can just outscore them.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:49 PM ^
I'm not so sure 'critical' is the right word but it's certainly an important game. Unfortunately, it's on the road, at night (maize jerseys!), and against a good team. Perhaps we can catch them on an "off" night. I would like to see a better effort than the MSU game but I don't think I'll be too upset if this game doesn't work out in UM's favor (as long as it's not a blow-out).
October 6th, 2009 at 1:50 PM ^
A win would be huge, but a loss doesn't break our season. We're unranked, and they're ranked very high. We NEED to keep improving, but a close loss won't really change my opinion of the team.
October 6th, 2009 at 4:45 PM ^
Agree with this but I think a blowout loss might cause some damage to the team's confidence. A close game or a win would be just fine (obv win is better).
October 6th, 2009 at 1:51 PM ^
Beat Iowa and DSU, and you go into the heart of the schedule 6-1. Purdue is winnable. You're 7-1. Then you only need one from Illinois, Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU to end up 8-4, which I think is the magic number we need this year to put out the fire and build some recruiting momentum.
Lose to Iowa, and you need to win two of those games. That is doable, but significantly more difficult.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:15 PM ^
So 7-1 is an impossibility unless we beat them.
October 6th, 2009 at 4:11 PM ^
and then get Molk back..lookout, new years day bowl here we come.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:51 PM ^
Other than just filing this under "duh, yes it is crucial". Here's a quick breakdown of our opponents (note: whether the game is home or away affects the rankings)
12: Delaware State. Should be an easy win.
11: Eastern. Win.
10: Western. Win.
9: Indiana. Win.
8: Purdue. Better than expected.
7: Illinois. Worse than expected.
6: Michigan State. Loss.
5: Notre Dame. Win.
4: Wisconsin. Tough place to play.
3: Penn State. Traditionally win at home, but they are good.
2: Iowa. Tough place to play.
1: OSU. Either way, it's the rivalry.
So this is the 2nd biggest game we'll have all season in my opinion, with a cupcake (Delaware St.) mixed in before our third biggest game.
I think it's OK to assume we go 3-2 against our top 5 opponents and blow one to either Purdue or Illinois. That'd put us at 8-4 on the year.
However, if we lose to Iowa, it would take a "comeback" of sorts to go 3-2 against our top 5 (must beat either PSU or Wiscy), and 7-5 might be more realistic.
So what does this game mean? Likely the difference between 7-5 and 8-4 this year. However, anything can happen during the course of the season and this team has already given me an ulcer so I might have just wasted 10 minutes of my life.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:41 PM ^
So what does this game mean? Likely the difference between 7-5 and 8-4 this year.
Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.
October 6th, 2009 at 3:43 PM ^
When Scout Posters Take Over MGoBlog
The horror...THE HORROR
They've brought their idiocy, their angst, and most of all, their ability to take the obviously mundane to new heights.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:53 PM ^
This game is a probable loss; it isn't close to "must-win" status yet.
UM is 4-1, and will be 4-2 if they lose. While it would be a lot nicer if they win for the national TV audience Saturday night, it won't make or break the season. If anything, it will toughen them up for the rest of the schedule. They definitely need to TCB against Del State, Illinois, and Purdue, but the other games will be bonuses if they win.
I still think 9-3 is very possible for the regular season, and a win over Iowa would put them back on the schedule I had envisioned for that, but they can also upset PSU, Wisky, or OSU. I plan on enjoying this game no matter who wins, and I would definitely enjoy a UM upset a lot more, but it doesn't mean that the sky will fall if they lose to Iowa.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:55 PM ^
Lose a tight game it won't hurt too bad (i.e. road loss at night to more experienced/higher rated squad)...get manhandled it could be tough on a young squad to rebound for the home game with PSU.
Again - I am a broken record, but man this team is exciting...can't wait for Saturday night.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:00 PM ^
I just want to see some progress. The OL is banged up, but guys should be settling into their new positions. Let's mix the run and the pass effectively, spread the field and show some deception. Defensively, who knows what to expect? Play with intensity, play for 60 minutes, something good may happen.
October 6th, 2009 at 4:38 PM ^
This isn't a must win game but rather a must compete game. This team knows they can come back late in the game, they need to prove to that they start as strong as they finish. Saturday may be too soon to hope for but one of these games they will perform in the 1st quarter like they have in the 4th....that is when we can really get excited.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:03 PM ^
think this is a must win game as much as it is a must play well game. After last week I think it is imperative for a good showing at Iowa to re-gain confidence heading into Del. State. If we were playing Penn State or Wiscy right after Iowa then I think it would be a must win. But having Del. State. assures us of some confidence gain heading back into the rest of the big ten season. As much as I'd like to have the game at Iowa, it is going to be very tough. They have the best front four of any team we have played so far and traditionally play the spread pretty well. However with how mediocre their offense has been this season as long as we play Michigan football from the first 3 weeks we will be in the game all the way through. In which case I like Forcier over Stanzi if its close in the 4th.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:05 PM ^
I think this game will tell us a lot about the team and a win would be huge for the rest of the season. A loss and we are probably looking at the 7-5 to 8-4 season most folks here (myself included) predicted before the year. A win sets us up at 6-1 (yes, I'm assuming we squeak by the Hornets), likely with a decent ranking, hosting a ranked 6-1 Penn State team (don't think they play anybody too tough the next couple weeks).
After that, if we can take care of business against Purdue and Illinois, we'd only need to clip one of PSU, Wisky, OSU to end up at 9-3 and likely headed to a New Year's Day bowl (dream season considering last year). Just thinking about the possibility of being 9-2 and hosting OSU has me freaking out.
So yes, this game is huge because a win keeps alive the possibility of an amazingly good season while also giving us a showcase moment in primetime on national TV.
In closing: enormous possibilities if we win, kind of what we all expected if we lose.
Go Blue!
October 6th, 2009 at 2:06 PM ^
I think the loss of Molk really hurts our running and pass protect game tremendously. What this means is that adding him back helps our chances a ton. It also means that while I would love to win at Iowa, it won't be the end of our season if we lose. I still am thinking 8 - 4. If we lose and go 7 - 5, well, that's life. Tate & crew will still make the game fun to watch. Hope they get things going before the last 5 minutes, however.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:07 PM ^
fuck no.
geez.
potato salad
October 6th, 2009 at 2:29 PM ^
Winning this Saturday would be pure gravy. The remaining crucial games as stated above are Delaware State and Purdue, with a side of Illinois. Anything else in my opinion is a bonus. Remember this is still a rebuilding year. A bowl game should be our goal.
October 6th, 2009 at 3:54 PM ^
potato salad with gravy.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:13 PM ^
A win is crucial in the "We will go 9-3 and be in the Outback Bowl" sense...
Not crucial in the pre-season mentatlity that UM "Will be 7-5 with a loss at Iowa" sense...
October 6th, 2009 at 2:22 PM ^
the only thing that matters to me is a bowl game, any bowl game. A winning season would be nice.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:42 PM ^
I couldn't agree more. I would love a 7 win season, but I'll take 6 if it gets us into a bowl which, due to the current win-loss records of Big 10 teams, appears likely.
October 6th, 2009 at 5:00 PM ^
Agree with MGB22 - 6 to 7 wins this season works as long as it ends with a win in a bowl game and the team is making solid progress on both sides of the ball. Expectations for this team (program) need to extend beyond this season. While I'm still brooding over the last loss the reality is that if Tate had completed the come back for the victory it wouldn't erase the first 3.5 qtrs. In a nutshell the team would be undefeated but with the same frustrating weaknesses. Sometimes you need to fail in order to improve. Then next year 10+ wins and the years following fighting for a spot in the National Championship game.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:25 PM ^
At this stage, I think Michigan is going to finish around the 7-5 or 6-6 this year, regardless of what happens in Iowa City Saturday night. If UM wins, bonus.
Most of the evidence after 5 games suggests that most of Michigan's remaining football games are going to be won and lost at razor thin margins (DSU game excluded). With that kind of knowledge, networks would be wise to ensure ALL of Michigan's games are televised nationally, not just on Big Ten network, because most UM games will probably be barn-burners.
We might all think this is bad for Michigan. But imagine for a moment what it must mean to upcoming UM opponents. In some respects, nobody is "safe". Not even 12th ranked Iowa and their top 10 defense (13.4 points per game).
Sometimes Michigan reminds me painfully of the Randy Walker NW teams: Scrappy, unpredictable, mistake-ridden, generous defensively, inexperienced, and thoroughly terrifying to the final second.
Every game is important, but Michigan can lose to Iowa Saturday night and still wind up at a reasonably good destination given this is year 2 of the transition and UM football is trying to crawl out of hole caused by recruiting failures and massive player attrition from 2005-2006.
Right now DSU, Illinois and Purdue sure look like winnable games to me. So that's 7 wins right there. As for Iowa, PSU, UW and OSU, they had better bring it for 60 minutes when playing Michigan, and possess long fingernails because they'll be biting them right down to the metacarpal bones thanks to this Forcier kid.
Yeah, so 7-5 and 6-6 sort of where I'm going to be hanging out in 2009 Expectationville for the next few weeks, until more evidence is gathered to the contrary.
October 6th, 2009 at 5:08 PM ^
(1) I think Michigan is going to finish around the 7-5 or 6-6 this year, regardless of what happens in Iowa City Saturday night.
(2) Right now DSU, Illinois and Purdue sure look like winnable games to me. So that's 7 wins right there.
I read these sentences together and arrive at a different conclusion with respect to the phrase "regardless of what happens in Iowa City Saturday night."
October 6th, 2009 at 2:32 PM ^
I'm amazed at how quickly and easily people have taken their eye off the ball. One more time- the goal before the season was 6-6 and after ND it became 7-5. Just get back to a fucking bowl, and the season will be a resounding SUCCESS.
Purdue, Illinois, and Delaware State gets M to 7-5. Everything else is bonus. Jesus.
October 6th, 2009 at 4:51 PM ^
Who, exactly, decided that the goal was 6-6? I would have considered that a baseline expectation going into the season, not the primary objective.
EDIT: Really? Going 6-6 was our big goal? That amounts to wins over Delaware State and the two MAC opponents and a 3-6 record against BCS-conference competition. Let's be clear: it's not that hard to go .500. ND went through this trajectory (3-9 followed by a 6-6 regular season) and they were hardly pleased.
October 7th, 2009 at 5:12 AM ^
"And they were hardly pleased"
And our fan base ridiculed the SHIT out of them.
I'm all for "reasonable expectations"--expecially prior to the start of the season. But after the first five games, we can be allowed to reset them.
I don't think the game at Iowa is so much "crucial"--if it's a loss--but if it's a win--it becomes extremely crucial to the final success this team will have by season's end (barring major injuries)--a HUGE road win over a highly-ranked team that thrashed Penn State on the road would be gigantumongous.
Purdue, Illinois, Delaware State--should all be expected after the first five games. I see Wisconsin as a very winnable game--I watched Sparty give their game to them on a silver platter--and although they "do what the do" pretty well, our young guys will be farther along in their development, our defense WILL be improved, more younger talent will have played and been developed, and fucking Jordan Kovacs may be the President by then. Keep moving forward, keep progressing, be healthy by then--and I'd be surprised to lose this game even if it IS the week before the OSU battle.
I'm taking liberties with what I've seen in the first five games as a WHOLE (hey, we've given up like SIX points in the third quarter all season so far), I'm looking at the development of some great, emerging talent that can make plays, and 6-6 or 7-5 just doesn't cut it for THIS reporter any longer.
October 6th, 2009 at 2:36 PM ^
i'd say it's a must win if you think this team is going to make it to 10 wins. however, if you think they'll get 8 then this would be an awesome win but not a season breaker
October 6th, 2009 at 3:19 PM ^
No. If we win, it'll be huge. If not, as long as we look halfway decent I'll be satisfied with a good effort.
October 6th, 2009 at 4:45 PM ^
Not a must win but stealing a "chalked up" pre-season loss for the 2nd time (ND the other) would be huge in giving the team confidence for the rest of the Big Ten schedule.
I think people are being very presumptious putting Purdue as a guaranteed win. They remind me of Indiana and we know how that went.
October 6th, 2009 at 4:52 PM ^
Jesus tapdancing Christ approves of this opinion
October 6th, 2009 at 11:13 PM ^
at least 40-50% of our 3rd down plays, the results could look a lot like last week.
Iowa's defense will be the toughest of the year so far and our ability to keep drives ging is crucial. If they possess the ball for long drives like the 130-yard drive of MSU and we don't contain Wehger it could be a long night.
Is the game crucial to the season? Not totally in terms of record, but in terms of confidence. I think our young guys might get down if they struggle two weeks in a row.
A victory could snowball into a new winning streak that exceed all our expectations. We need Tate to stay upright and uninjured and Minor Rage needs to reappear.
At best right now, I'm 50-50. I like our chances, but we have to start fast. I like the theory I read on MGOBLOG the other day, if we win the coin toss, take ball and set the tone early.
Our front seven will be the key for the defense. Pressure on Stanzi(See blitz crazy here) and containing Mehger will be key.
October 7th, 2009 at 12:34 AM ^
This is a great opportunity for the defense to step up and keep them tied down enough to give the offense a chance to win it late in the game. By no means a must-win since we still dont really know what to expect as far as final record is concerned.
That said a solid performance from the D might finally help them turn the corner and become more competitive as we hit the heart of the B10 schedule.
October 7th, 2009 at 4:37 AM ^
Yes, the outcome of this game might affect morale or momentum or whatever -- might, and I have no idea how to measure that -- but objectively it is one game. If we lose this weekend we will be 4-2. If we win this weekend we will be 5-1. With respect to morale/momentum, barring anything bizarre, we should beat Delaware State the following weekend. That means we will be either 5-2 or 6-1 going into the PSU game.
To explain it another way, we are 4-1 with 7 games remaining. We need to win 4 games to be 8-4 and 5 games to be 9-3. Illinois and Purdue are not guaranteed wins but we should be favored. Delaware State should be a win. That makes 3 additional "likely" wins. All we need to do is beat one of Iowa, PSU, Wisconsin and OSU to reach 8-4. Iowa is the first game on that list and we need to do everything possible to win it. however, if we lose, we still need to take care of business the following week against Delaware State and then do everything possible to beat PSU on Oct 24, etc., etc.
We are totally capable of winning one or more of the four "tough" remaining games -- Iowa, PSU, Wisconsin, OSU -- but only if we go into those games with the right mindset. If we go into those games believing we are not good enough to win, then we will probably lose all four. Likewise, if we go into those games thinking our season will be over if we lose any of them, again we will have unrealistic expectations and it is a near certainty we will be disappointed. But if we go into those games thinking that each one is winnable without getting hung up on any specific game, we have a decent chance of stealing one or more of those games. The Iowa game, just like the MSU game (sorry Sparty), only counts as one game. Don't make it bigger than it is.