Analyzing early signing day in the B1G East

Submitted by Hail to the Vi… on December 17th, 2020 at 2:40 PM

With the dust significantly settled on the 2021 recruiting cycle, I wanted to take a look and see how the East division made out with their individual recruiting hauls. This is meant to be more of a qualitative and topical assessment across the division, so I'm not really comparing apples-to-apples. I did however organize the list of teams below in ascending order from highest regarded class to lowest according to 24/7 Sports. Definitely some tea leaves to be read in the results. One thing that remains certain. Ohio State will be very good.

Ohio State: Fuck. That is all.

Michigan: With all the performance issues and uncertainty surrounding the program, it is hard not to be pleased with the way this class panned out for the most part yesterday. They did miss out on a few talented verbals in Brandon Jennings and Quinton Sommerville, although I wouldn't consider either prospect critical misses at positions of need. In the case of Jennings, he hadn't even visited campus and the assumption is he probably wasn't totally comfortable with the instability with the program right now. Sommerville was 1000% committed to Shaun Nua, so one could infer Shaun probably will not be on the staff for the 2021 season. The fact they were able to hang onto Xavier Worthy and land Donovan Edward's signature is a huge accomplishment. Both of those guys have the potential to be game changing offensive players. JJ McCarthy should step on campus and be a fan favorite from day one. That guy hung in there, never waivered and is a critical reason the offensive side of this class is as good as it is. The top end offensive talent in this class is excellent, let's figure out a way to effing use it! The defense is a little tougher to project. Some nice prospects and projects in the class, but the defensive tackle position is turning into a void of talent. Going to need a complete re-boot on that side of the ball

Maryland: I think we're starting to see the Locksley recruiting prowess take shape. Another pretty nice haul for a program that has been abysmal for some time now. The on field performance definitely took a step forward this year, which certainly helps perpetuate recruiting efforts. Still they punched way above their weight class inking a top 25 class. The top-end talent in this class is heavily loaded on the defensive side of the ball. It looks like 9 of their top 10 prospects are on the defensive prospects. I think this is a pretty good strategy for them given that the offense appears to be a pretty good unit right now. Looking at the trajectory of this program, mixed with their recruiting strategy I think this team is going to emerge as a dangerous and challenging opponent in the next few seasons. No more auto-wins coming from this team on the schedule

Penn State: Not their strongest recruiting performance compared to the last few seasons. I would be almost certain they are not feeling good at all about Maryland's recruiting emergence in the DMV. That has historically been home base for the Nittany Lions. They still have a top 25 class, however their highest rated prospect is an offensive tackle that comes in at #50 overall nationally. The second highest rated prospect is... #195 nationally. They may move up the rankings once the late signing period is over if they can pick up a few more available players on their board, this is a pretty small class as it stands. It will be interesting to watch the power struggle between them and Maryland in the hotly contested DMV area. Do not be surprised if Maryland supersedes Penn State in the B1G East power rankings. No, I do not want to discuss what implications that presents for Michigan.

Michigan State: Quite honestly.. Mel Tucker seems to have done a pretty damn good job on the recruiting trail this year despite everything he's had to deal with in his first season. He pulled in the number 33 rated recruiting class nationally to East Landfill, with a roster depleted of talent and poor on field results. Taking into account the less than savory headlines the University has made over the past few years, Sharty fans have to be pretty damn impressed with his first class. Specifically notable was their flip of a 4* linebacker from Las Vegas that has originally committed to USC. This, of course, is not very good news for Michigan. You can see a scenario where if the on field performance steadily improves under Tucker, he could turn them into a legitimately good recruiting program. For all the gloating and malevolence we've pilled on Sparty for being a total dumpster fire, we should be paying attention to those results. This class is considerably better than most of the Dantonio classes from the past few seasons

Rutgers: Again honestly.. not bad at all for Rutgers. The proverbial doormat of FBS football, Rutgers currently has the #41 class nationally. As one would imagine, their class is heavily comprised of New Jersey prospects. Geographically, not a bad spot to be in if you're trying to boost the talent level on your roster. I would Greg Schiano is on track to accomplish that in his first season, part duex. While I still think there is a hard cap on how good the program can become on a consistent basis. They looked markedly better this season under Schiano, and if he can continue to raise their competition level on the field, they will quickly admonish themselves as the laughing stock of the league.

Indiana: A mildly surprising, underwhelming performance for the Hoosiers. Their class as it currently stands, remains outside of the top 50 nationally. Perhaps the effects on recruiting from their remarkable season won't bare results until the 2022 cycle, but this is class is pretty small in commitments and talent. It is worth noting their top two prospects are a 4* wide receiver and a 4* dual threat Quarterback, so at minimum it appears with this class they'll continue to be able to execute their offensive identity. Tom Allen has also demonstrated that he is fully capable of maximizing the talent on his roster and hang with superiorly talented teams. It appears for now however, they are not experiencing the recruiting bump from improved on field performance; which for now can probably be expected. Something to watch with the '22 cycle

Overall thoughts: The division is getting more competitive, plain and simple. The historical basement dwellers Rutgers, Maryland, and to a lesser degree Michigan State (who we thought would devolve into a puddle of ooze) improved the talent on their rosters significantly this cycle. At the top, well same old same old.. the Death Star in Columbus continues to roll. If I am Penn State, I do not want to see the results from this recruiting cycle turn into a trend. Quite frankly, I don't think Michigan wants to see that either. Ohio State should mostly have the talent consistently to not be impacted by such a trend. 

For Michigan, we have got to figure out the disconnect and inefficiencies of the program and get them sorted out, and we have to do it now. We are not long for the seasons where Michigan can roll out of bed and beat a divisional opponent by 3 scores based on talent alone. I think by and large, our recruiting has been at level good enough to maintain our spot within the top 3 of the league (minus whatever the fuck it was we witnessed this season) and that remained the same in this cycle as well. But if the coaching staff can't get the roster to maximize their potential, or can't put them in a position to be successful they are going to encounter some painful and maddening upset losses. Can't have any more bad days at Michigan, the talent within the division is trending towards being to competitive to overcome mail-in performances.

Hope you enjoyed the read! Let me know your thoughts below.

 

 

 

 

Newton Gimmick

December 17th, 2020 at 3:13 PM ^

The other one immediately coming to mind is the SEC West.  If we look at current 2021 recruiting rankings (on 24/7) only:

B1G East: 2 OSU, 12 U-M, 19 Mary, 21 PSU, 33 MSU, 41 Rut, 62 Ind = 190/7 = 27.14 avg rank

SEC West: 1 Ala, 4 LSU, 11 A&M, 18 Ole Miss, 20 Ark, 36 Miss St, 40 Aub = 130/7 = 18.57 avg

So, still a significant difference.  And Auburn will usually recruit better, given they don't have a coach right now

Carpetbagger

December 17th, 2020 at 5:10 PM ^

Good (Bad) to see those numbers in print like that Newton. I hate to say it, but this could easily be the toughest Division in college if Rutgers and Maryland can keep their crap together.

I know everyone likes to make fun of them and their football history, but they have the talent in their backyard, they just need someone to keep it there for long enough to create some tradition and history..

pdgoblue25

December 17th, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^

With this year and last year, DT is not just a void of talent, it's simply a void.  They didn't even get one last year. 

I can't believe there aren't some lower level in state guys who we can get simply to have a fucking 2 deep so we don't have to say, hmmmmm I wonder if our awesome fullback could put on 45 lbs?

Hail to the Vi…

December 17th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^

very good point. A void of talent, and apparently now a void of bodies as well. It's hard to imagine how the staff looked at their recruiting board and did not discern the defensive tackle position was in critical condition. 

By contrast, MSU signed 2 in-state tackles (includes Benny for now, which we can hopefully flip). Maryland signed 3 - all 3 of which makeup their top 5 rated overall prospects. Rutgers signed 1

Freaking Central Michigan signed 3, and Eastern signed 2. 

It is impossible to understand why we need 13 scholarship linebackers and 2 defensive tackles. I cannot find a way to rationalize it other than an utter failure at that position.

1VaBlue1

December 17th, 2020 at 3:39 PM ^

The only thing I can figure is that they think the lower rated guys are 'beneath' a standard talent level UM should strive for.  But that doesn't make sense because they have zero bodies in two classes!  Not to mention that it would be demonstrably bullshit thinking!  Only other thing is that they're worried about grade levels.  But I can't believe that 12 of the 13 DT's you listed are all academically invalid for UM...

Hail to the Vi…

December 17th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^

That's kind of what I am thinking as well. The coaches perhaps didn't think going further down the board presented a better option than pursuing a more talented prospect at a different position.

The obvious gotcha there is - you can't play football with out defensive tackles, and talented players can't win you games on the sideline backing up an upperclassmen.

Or perhaps they are still committed to their "grow a tackle" strategy, but so far that has failed miserably, doesn't appear to have any real hope of succeeding anytime soon, and so now we're left showing our ass at a massively important position.

You would think for a coaching staff with the experience that Michigan's has this would be a pretty obvious concept.. but here we are.

mwolverine1

December 17th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^

I think the Build a DT effort is still ongoing.

  • Donovan Jeter is 318 and ready to go. He's a decent rotation piece at this point and we get him for one more year
  • Julius Welschof is 286 and has flashed some pass rush ability
  • Mike Morris is 276 
  • Kris Jenkins is 265

And then we have two top 100 players in Hinton and Smith. Hinton is starter quality and Smith was just starting to play when the season was cut off. 

I think DT is ok for the next couple years.

  • In 2021, start Hinton and Jeter with Smith and Welschof rotating in
  • In 2022, start Hinton and Smith, with Welschof and Morris or Jenkins rotating in
  • 2023 is when we need someone new to really emerge, but that is a ways away

Hail to the Vi…

December 17th, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^

Jeter I think unfortunately has not played very well since moving inside. I believe he was considered a SDE coming out of high school. He definitely has the requisite size to play on the interior, but he seems to get blown off the ball pretty consistently and he has not generated much pass rush at all.

I do agree Welshof has shown some flashes, still doesn't seem to hold up quite well enough yet against the run, but I do like his pass rushing potential from what we've seen. I'd imagine he'll improve at least marginally as he continues to add weight.

Honestly, best case scenario in my mind is both Hinton and Smith break through next year and they are your starters on the inside. Welscholf and Morris if he makes significant strides to spell those guys - otherwise you run with Jeter on the second unit.

I'm definitely not trying to knock Jeter, and who knows maybe he finally breaks through as a 5th year senior. But he just hasn't been able to get it done with any amount of consistency so far.

The Baughz

December 17th, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^

Also, MSU just plucked away the starting QB from Temple. Anthony Russo is his name and is pretty much in the top 5 of all of Temple's passing statistics.

Not bad.

MH20

December 17th, 2020 at 3:49 PM ^

I really liked what I saw out of Payton Thorne so I am bit surprised to see Sparty hit the grad transfer market at QB. At the same time, Lombardi has really shown nothing to indicate he's the guy (outside of torching Michigan) and Theo Day has three career attempts going into his four year in the program, so on that face it makes sense to get someone with experience to compete.

HateSparty

December 17th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^

I'm not convinced that Tucker has the ability to develop players like Dantonio.  Maybe they still use the same pharmacist for their juice but overall talent development is inconclusive.  I also hope they try to pull national talent in.  I think the local midwest talent has been their edge against Michigan.  Kids want to prove something against Michigan.  I also think if Fickel and Freeman stay together that will hurt MSU recruiting as they will pull those deceptively talented three stars out of Ohio that Dantonio baked his bread with.

Rutgers not sucking will.....suck.

I'll quietly root for Tom Allen as he has grown on me.  

A talented Maryland team is bad.  Regardless of the PSU impact.  Locksley has improved that team more than the record shows.  They were a failed two pint conversion from beating OSU last year.  Here's hoping he coaches his game of his lifetime this weekend.  Beat State!

 

 

Blue@LSU

December 17th, 2020 at 4:57 PM ^

I'll quietly root for Tom Allen as he has grown on me.

I can't bring myself to like Tom Allen. I still think of them as a dirty team from the game a couple of years ago with him at the center of it. Intentionally kicking the ball after it was set by the refs to prevent us from scoring in the red-zone right before halftime (and Allen cheering about it while running down the tunnel). And their linemen taking potshots and injuring Winovich (pouncing on him while he was already down and a clip in the back after the play was over). No thanks.  

Edited: forgot to mention the hit on Berkley Edwards during the kick return. 

GoodLuckVarsity

December 17th, 2020 at 3:32 PM ^

Three of MSU's top 4 commits did not sign yesterday.  I don't follow their recruiting close enough to know whether that was expected or not, but losing those three would likely see them free fall in the class rankings.

SpartanInA2

December 17th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^

Those 3 weren't expected to sign. VanDeMark and Estime's school has a tradition of signing together in February, and I don't think Benny ever indicated that he wanted to sign early. Right now it's looking like Estime is going to ND, which has pretty much been expected since he got that offer. But MSU may be bringing in Auburn transfer Harold Joiner to replace him.

Edit: Joiner just committed to MSU, so that pretty much confirms the Estime flip

Imjesayin

December 17th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^

How is it year after year we have such great recruiting and talent on paper and then just shit the bed in every big game (and several lesser ones)?

UM has had an embarrassment of rich recruiting classes (compared to their big game performances) and wastes them perennially. Why? Because the coaching fucking sucks. It's ridiculous.

This school gets recruits it doesn't deserve based upon performance and wastes them like no other school I can think of except maybe Texas and Tennessee come to mind. 

This is has been going on for, what, 3 coaches and almost 10 years now?

At some point, the recruits will just stop coming and create a crater that can't be climbed out of for a long time. It's already happening with DL and CB.

cbutter

December 17th, 2020 at 4:30 PM ^

I think part of it is while Michigan put together the 12th best in the country (according to 247) you look at the average rating of the recruits, and it is not elite. For example average rating for Alabama, OSU, Georgia, Oklahoma are all 93 and above, the lowest of those OU at 93.2 the highest, Alabama at 94.60.

Michigan is 90.37. Notre Dame who is the 9th best in the country (again according to 247) is at 89.61. You want to know why Notre Dame and Michigan haven't truly had a seat at the big boy table? That is the number you're looking at. Sure coaching plays a factor but until you are pumping out the elite of the elite, all you can hope for are a few upsets here and there. Lets be clear, if Michigan beats OSU in the next 5 years it WILL be an upset. 

For reference teams that are roughly 4 points below Michigan on the average recruiting ranking:

  • Michigan State 
  • Kentucky
  • NC State
  • Virginia
  • Missouri
  • Baylor
  • Georgia Tech

Minnesota is closer to Michigan than Michigan is to Alabama and OSU on an average recruiting ranking basis. The only way to change that is to beat OSU consistently and I don't believe that there is a coach available in the country that could do that. The only way this changes is if OSU implodes with scandal or other self inflicted wounds.

G. Gulo of the Dale

December 17th, 2020 at 5:00 PM ^

This seems to be exactly right.  Also, there have been numerous posts in the past showing that, during the Harbaugh era, Michigan's final ranking at the end of the season actually aligns very closely with its avg. recruiting ranking over the previous handful of years.  (Obviously, this year is an exception.)   I think people tend to remember top-ten classes (like 2016, '17, and '19) and forget about classes that fell outside the top twenty ('15 (transition) and '18).  And, following your logic, the gap between our excellent classes and our mediocre classes is smaller than the gap between between our excellent classes and the typical classes of Alabama, Georgia, and OSU.

What people want is for Harbaugh to recruit well, and then develop players to compete above their rankings.  Obviously, he hasn't really done that.  But, to your point, it gets really hard to "punch above your weight" when there is a significant gap between you and the teams above you.  And when you go 3-3 against an inferior MSU program, you aren't getting the benefit of the doubt.       

1VaBlue1

December 17th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^

"But if the coaching staff can't get the roster to maximize their potential, or can't put them in a position to be successful..."

This is the rub! The staff haven't done those things since 2017!  I see no indication today that they will do them in 2021, so...  I mean, if things change with a new defensive staff (as it appears is coming), great!  But that doesn't change anything offensively, and that's where games have been lost - offensively.  Maybe a 3rd year with Gattis will help?  But the same problems we saw in 2018 with him, are the same things we saw in 2019, are the same problems we saw in 2020 (ie: inconsistency in both the running and passing games; exceedingly poor play call decisions; player rotations; lack of in-season improvement from group units and personnel; etc).

Harbaugh will be back, and we know what we've had with him.  Let's hope the coaching improves as much as this croot class improved the teams overall talent level!

M-Dog

December 17th, 2020 at 3:36 PM ^

A stronger Maryland and Rutgers (but not too strong), takes talent away from Penn State more than it does from us. 

That's good for us (as long as we don't sleepwalk through the MD / Rutgers games), as Penn State is more of a long term threat to us recruiting-wise.

Grampy

December 17th, 2020 at 6:52 PM ^

I get that people want to dump on Maryland and Rutgers, as their ascension to the Big Ten was a base money-grab by Jim ‘Master Baiter’ Delaney and their presence in the B1G dilutes the value of being a member of the club.  But, that said, they are members now and I think it’s good that they are working to build their programs up to respectability.  I am not in the least broken up about PSU’s struggle with new competition for recruits in population centers that they feel entitled to.  As always, Fuck PSU and their JoPa cult of entitlement.

Denarded

December 17th, 2020 at 3:43 PM ^

Per the interweb rumors of MSU RB commit Audric Estime's incoming flip to Notre Dame and an all-time #crootin story unfolding of Rayshaun Benny not signing and switching back to Michigan, this would bring MSU's class down to 48th overall. Sandwiched inbetween the likes of Vanderbilt, SMU, Georgia Tech, Memphis and Kansas State. 

Might want to pump the breaks on giving Mel some credit because he's not out of the woods yet with this 2021 class. 

Hail to the Vi…

December 17th, 2020 at 6:41 PM ^

that's fair, the way I wrote it makes it sound like the keystone members of the class already signed, when in fact they did not.

Still, I think the point stands even at 48th that is a pretty good job considering the current situation in East Lansing. I think it is worth being a little weary with MSU.

I'm not sure if it has been confirmed or not, but I think the ugly loss to MSU this year directly impacted the Benny recruitment and ultimate verbal pledge to MSU. Losses like that absolutely have to stop happening.

BuckeyeChuck

December 17th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^

  • Yes, twas nice to see Maryland's class. Good for them.
  • Indiana won't see the bump until next year's class...and that still requires being competitive next fall to establish a track record as a contender.
  • PSU's class was rated low because only 15 commits. If you look at their 247 average rating per commit, it's a more talented class than MD and virtually equal to Wisconsin for #3 in the conference. (And MD's average would put them 8th in the conference.)

MGoStrength

December 17th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^

We always out-recruit everyone in the B1G outside of OSU.  Yet, we continue to get beat by teams with less talent.  I'm pleasantly surprised by how this class finished, but I'm skeptical that having more talent will be enough to beat less talented teams.

KennyHiggins

December 17th, 2020 at 3:48 PM ^

OSU is a presence in the DMV - gotta think Locksley will limit the number of guys like Chase Young and Dwayne Haskins that head to Columbus.  Now if U Texas could get itself together...

KO Stradivarius

December 17th, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^

Great post. I appreciate the quality writing and strategic f-bombs.  A breath of fresh air vs the titles that are only names (a la Justin Feagin) or with like one vague sentence or a Twitter link if you're lucky.

AC1997

December 17th, 2020 at 4:02 PM ^

Okay, I did a little digging into Defensive Tackle recruiting in the conference.  Excluding OSU, who plays by different rules and recruits at a level only Clemson and Alabama can compete with at this point....here are some facts about DT recruiting in the conference.  

First, as Seth said on the podcast, DTs are very difficult to recruit and are going to "cost" you a lot in time, effort, etc.  There just aren't very many anywhere, there are hardly any in the B10 footprint, and there are almost no elite ones anywhere.  By my count of DTs in the 12 schools not including Michigan or OSU.....

  • There are only 18 total recruits at DT.
  • Two schools (MSU, WI) have zero in their class
  • There are only six top-250 recruits (Maryland has 3, PSU has 2, Iowa has 1)
  • Outside of those six, the other 12 are all ranked 588 or lower