2023 Michigan Football Trap Game - Who has the best shot?
Taking a moment away from the Northwestern clownshow..
We don't play any juggernauts out of conference this year, but the schedule makers did us no favors as we head to the end of the season. We also have a lot of tough environments to play in, even if the teams are not great (MSU, Nebraska).I think Maryland, sandwiched between an away game against PSU and OSU the week following is a donkey punch. Purdue won't be a slouch and MSU always is there ... right before it.
We (UM local fans) will pack Maryland's stadium with Maize and Blue --- but I still worry. Last year, if Tagaivailoa doesn't get hurt, I'm not 100% confident we win that game. My pick is Maryland. Do we have reason to fear Big Red? a cranky MSU? Minny?
Assuming PSU and OSU are our standard toughest games of the year... which game is your trap game? What game is the sneaky L waiting for us around the corner?
What say you?
Sep 2 (Sat) Noon Home East Carolina Ann Arbor, Mich.
Sep 9 (Sat) 3:30 PM Home UNLV Ann Arbor, Mich.
Sep 16 (Sat) 7:30 PM Home Bowling Green Ann Arbor, Mich.
Sep 23 (Sat) Noon Home Rutgers Ann Arbor, Mich.
Sep 30 (Sat) TBD Away Nebraska Lincoln, Neb.
Oct 7 (Sat) TBD Away Minnesota Minneapolis, Minn.
Oct 14 (Sat) TBD Home Indiana Ann Arbor, Mich.
Oct 21 (Sat) TBD Away Michigan State East Lansing, Mich.
Nov 4 (Sat) TBD Home Purdue Ann Arbor, Mich.
Nov 11 (Sat) Noon Away Penn State State College, Pa.
Nov 18 (Sat) TBD Away Maryland College Park, Md.
Nov 25 (Sat) Noon Home Ohio State Ann Arbor, Mich.
BTT Game - Probably against Iowa
Maryland feels very risky. Very capable coaching staff, talent on both sides of the ball, and a real chance that the team is not 100% committed to come out from the start.
I dunno...maybe? We got September Maryland last year, and traditionally November Maryland is pretty weak. It all depends on TaTa staying healthy, but if he is, I could see the Josh Gattis revenge tour giving us some fits in that slot.
I'm going to go with an unpopular one - Purdue. While they aren't going to win the West or anything, Ryan Walters seems like he can really coach, and he's a defensive guy, which can give you fits even against inferior talent, esp as you come off pounding a rival into paste and getting ready for a big game with PSU.
LOL did not realize Gattis is at Maryland
I'm going to go with an unpopular one - Purdue.
Purdue brought in Hudson Card, so they're not going from O'Connell to an unknown, but they still lost a ton of production. They lost O'Connell as previously mentioned, their #1 WR (Charlie Jones) and #1 TE (Payne Durham - who was their #2 receiving option). Those 2 guys were 50% of Purdue's receiving yardage last year and they don't have a Rondale Moore or David Bell walking into that WR room at the moment.
That's a lot for a team/program that was/is built to air it out. O'Connell might not have been an amazingly talented QB, but he was perfect for Brohm's system and that's the bigger thing, they lost Brohm. He drove that program and was a major part of it's DNA. Willing to air it out, go for it on 4th downs, run fake flea flickers, etc. I have to imagine the offense will take a step back, maybe not in overall competency, but at least in the willingness to do the things that make up for their talent disadvantage. Purdue's defense was/is not a foundational stake of the program. I'd expect Walters to improve it, but it won't be on the level that Purdue's offense was, capable of carrying the other side of the ball.
I think Purdue takes a major step back this year. They lost so much and have a new coaching staff.
Who is this Charlie Jones you speak of? I only know of Chuck Sizzle.
Hopefully he has an NIL deal with Sizzler
Maryland is a combined 3-15 in November games over the last 5 years...
2 out of 3 of those wins were again Rutgers, and the 3rd was Penn St during the COVID year.
Take that info as you will, but I'm not seeing this as the trap game.
September Maryland vs. November Maryland is a very real thing. I wouldn't want to see them early this year, but they're toothless in November until they prove otherwise.
Well, as they say on Wall Street, past results aren't necessarily a predictor. September MD is better b c the opponents are weaker, for one. But I do think those guys can coach, and quietly pull for them, almost despite myself. I'm kind of a dedicated underdog backer in almost any game, except for when it's us, especially in an environment where the rich are getting richer.
November/September Maryland is a real thing and I think it's a depth issue. They can field a team of 22 competent starters and depth in some places but don't possess the rows of teeth like Michigan and Ohio State. A couple injuries (inevitable in football) and they are sunk
They gave osu fits in the night game last year. I wouldnt sleep on them especially at home.
Maryland feels very risky.
I think the OP rightly recognizes Maryland as the most likely trap scenario according to my definition of a prototypical trap game, which is going on the road to a middling team (who is up for playing against you) sandwiched in between two major matchups (who draw your attention more than most). PSU & OSU are both among Michigan's 3 biggest "circle games" of the year. A road trip to Maryland in between qualifies. (Unless November Maryland shows up.)
As for OSU's potential trap game, their 6 road opponents are:
- IU (season opener = not eligible for "trap" consideration)
- ND (not a trap; a circle game)
- Purdue (between Maryland & PSU)
- Wisconsin (not a trap opponent, although the week following PSU)
- Rutgers (between Wisconsin & MSU)
- Michigan (circle game perhaps?)
Of those, none appear to be an obvious trap game. Purdue doesn't follow a circle game. Rutgers might best fit the definition because it immediately follows PSU & Wisconsin back-to-back...but it's Rutgers.
Home game candidates include WKU? (preceding ND), Maryland (but following a bye), Minnesota (between MSU & Michigan).
Perhaps Minnesota? Purdue? ...uh...the Rutger?
Wisconsin
Think the Michigan game should be **asterisk**, only to preempt the excuses that will follow from the Buckeye faithful 😏
Minnesota could be a tough out with Road Trip to Ann Arbor on everyone's mind, but if you're looking at the sandwich factor, the home game v. Sparty doesn't exactly qualify as one that is so much a challenge that it might be followed by a let down. However, if you guys dump a game that you shouldn't, Gophers would be my guess.
1. MSU*
2. Minnesota
3. Nebraska
4. Ohio State
*This may seem ridiculous, but the only program in the conference with more wins against Michigan than MSU is Ohio State. Since 1969, most of those Spartan victories have occurred when MSU has been the lower-ranked underdog. I've seen too many supposedly outmanned MSU teams rise up and beat Michigan over the years to ever assume a game against them is a gimme.
That's fair, but it has been many years since a mediocre (as measured by end-of-year record) MSU team has beaten a good UM team.
They beat us the last time we played in EL. And the damn Monsoon game, they come to play and we some how play not to lose
Did you mean to reply to another post?
I have to agree with you Don. Minnesota should be the answer based on the team, but due to weird mojo, going to say Michigan State.
But I’m sure by writing this out, midway through the third quarter, I’m sure Michigan will be up 21.
Minnesota lost their entire roster, and they wouldn't really have been much of a threat even last year.
I think the BTT game is a trap game before we play in the semifinals. Or maybe the trap, as it has been the last 2 years, is the semifinal game.
Even more so than usual, MSU has a one-game schedule this year, preceded and followed by a bunch of preseason games, friendlies, exhibitions, optional attendance events, and voluntary participation days. It's a unique way to play any sport, but MSU excels at using all of their non-mandatory games to be fully weaponized for the one game on their schedule that counts (to them).
I remember us nearly losing to the completely hapless Zips under Hoke.
I know Hoke and Harbaugh are VERY different coaches, but a win is never guaranteed, especially against Sparty. There could be heavy rain or snow. A key player could catch a fever the day before. And Sparty will do everything in their power to bring our boys to their knees.
Predicting a victory against MSU is one thing....guaranteeing it is asking to be slapped down by the football gods.
The Spartans have been unusually interested in Michigan player’s knees historically. I’m worried that especially after the tunnel issues they won’t hesitate to do something seriously violent during the game.
Michigan State is dangerous against Michigan even when they are completely hapless. Take 2004 Braylon-fest. It is easy to look at that game as "we came back from 17 down in the fourth quarter against Michigan State!" It was an awesome ending, but I look at it more as "Michigan was down to that Michigan State team by 17 points in the fourth quarter?"
MSU had Drew "I hate Michigan fans. They're all Walmart Wolverines" Stanton playing lights out in that game, until he got hurt and they had to rely on Damon Dowdell in the second half. It's likely Michigan loses that game if Stanton kept playing.
Agree but get rid of Minnesota and add Maryland.
I think the correct answer is:
NOBODY!!
I have no idea, but I do have a request for respondents to elaborate further. Here is a definition for a trap game I quickly found online in a very old ESPN article: A game in which a playoff contender faces a losing team, but one that still has some motivation for playing hard, and possesses some matchup advantages
So let's eliminate losses due to injury, unusual weather (but predictable weather, like cold in November, should be fair game), or unpredictably bad luck.
What specific matchup advantages does your trap game opponent have over Michigan?
I think it's Maryland. They have a good passing game and--as of right now--we have an unproven pass rush and a question mark at CB2. This is more feelings-ball, but Gattis has to have a little something extra in his belly for this one, too.
I'm going with Maryland, but I think everyone knows by now they arent the cupcake they used to be, but its always a trap game because its the game before osu. They played a strong game in A2 last year so they will give it their all at home. They gave osu problems before the Michigan game as well.
IU could be another one. Its the first game back after playing Huskers and Gophers on the road, and its the game before sparty. I'm hoping they're focused every game because I think they're going to be in some dog fights this season even if they're 14 point favorites.
I agree about Maryland. They've given OSU some scares when they played right before the Michigan game (2018, 2022). I just hope that we don't walk into this game with a vanilla gameplan like we did against Illinois last year. Also, I'm sure Gattis will put in some extra prep for this one and have a couple of held back just for this game.
Maryland has never had a winning record in B1G play and they have a bit of a reputation of starting out strong (think their wins over Texas) and fading down the stretch. I think Mike Locksley has that team generally trending upwards, but the last two seasons they've finished 1-3 in November with the 1 win being Rutgers in both instances. I fear September Maryland much more than I fear November Maryland. That's the part of the season where depth (especially in the trenches) becomes important and I feel confident we can win a rock fight against the turtles if we need to. My biggest worry is going to Lincoln. New coach, fans desperate for a big win, possible (likely?) night game. Road night games are what scare me, not November Maryland.
Maryland seems the most logical "trap" game - because of where it's positioned - between PSU and the regular season finale.
I think Nebraska may pose a challenge - or potential surprise - with Ruhle as a new head coach, it wouldn't surprise me if the game was scheduled at night, so the crowd will be "more" into the game - it's the first road game of the season.
The game in East Lansing should always be a red letter game, as others have noted - it's the Super Bowl for the green and white.
None, 11-0 going into the Ohio State, Football Armageddon III
I'm going to say Minnesota. Not an original take considering Seth said it on last week's roundtable but I think he's right. Purdue and Nebraska are going through coaching changes. Maryland is tempting but is November Maryland. MSU obviously will play as dirty as they can, but that program is an absolute dumpster fire right now.
Minnesota looks to me like the only (non-PSU/OSU) program we're facing that has the combination of 1) decent roster and coaching stability 2) coming off a solid season 3) motivation (Jug!) 4) home field, and 5) not being November Maryland.
The last factor is obviously the least reliable. I'm sure that SOMEDAY, over the coming years or decades, Maryland will field a team that is approximately as tough in their 8th and 9th games as they are in their 2nd and 3rd games. But I'm betting that won't be this year.
I was inclined to agree with Don about MSU but then remembered how much extra motivation we'll have after the tunnel incident. We're not losing to them this year.
I'm planning to go to Lincoln, which I think could be a night game, and therefore an early season opportunity for the Huskers to prove something in prime time against the B1G champs. I don't think they'll be good enough to actually beat us but it's one of those road games where I could see us getting off to a sluggish start and them hanging around.
That extra motivation will probably go both ways, though I'm not sure how much more motivated they can be when they play Michigan.
I don't think there will be any sizeable gap in motivation between us and Sparty when the game arrives. They will always treat it like their SuperBowl, and we've always got them in our sights due to their history of shenanigans.
But the simple fact is they will be terrible this season. I think they were better than their record last year (not by much, but they were probably a bowl-adjacent team). But without Thorne, Coleman and the other guys they've lost, combined with zero evidence of any development along the OL or the secondary, I don't see what challenge they pose. And as bad as their offense was last year, it could it be even worse this year.
They'll be annoying, but much like last year, I think we'll simply cruise over them. Not by the margin we'd like, but it won't be a competitive game. Especially if we air the ball out on them, which we definitely did not do last year.
That's right Homie. Cause they suck. I agree wholeheartedly. Go Blue!
Yeah...I mean I don't think you can put a rivalry game down as a trap game. I believe they'll always be hard fought victories, even if the scoreboard doesn't always show it. If MSU is as much of a tire fire as I expect them to be, best believe they'll be doing nothing but prepping for this game all year. At the end of the day it, MSU fans would love to be good and beat Michigan, but being dogshit and beating Michigan is a close second.
The other concern about MSU being a bad team is that they have nothing to lose. They have already shown a willingness to go for it on every 4th down, go for 2 frequently, etc. This increases the variance in the game, meaning that it could be a bigger blowout than expected, or it could be stupidly and annoyingly close. We just need to make sure that when their gambles don't pay off we capitalize and bury them.
I see four separate possibilities. I'll put them in order of likeliness.
1. @ Maryland - sandwiched between our two biggest games on the schedule. @ Penn State and THE GAME. Big caveat is are they healthy that late into November.
2. @ Minnesota - Second half of a back to back road trip. Solid physical team that will try to grind the game down.
3. @ Michigan St. - We are their super bowl
4. @ Nebraska - Lincoln is still a tough place to play and nobody has any idea if Nebraska will be decent or not.
Minnesota is the only team that, like Illinois last year, could run the ball on us and slow down our run game. Hoping for less nervy first halves this year, but I expect that game to be close into the 4th.
Oddly enough I’m worried about ECU.
Just prepare for the opponent, and win. So much voodoo in college football
I'm going to probably jinx us here but honestly, no one has a shot until we see Ohio State the last weekend of the regular season.
This is arguably the best team and shot we have had at the National Championship in some time (although I thought we had a good shot last year; I actually feel better about this year's offense)
When you have those kinds of realistic aspirations, no one should ever sneak up on you. I also think that the mental make-up of the team with Corum, JJ, Will Johnson, etc won't take any opponent lightly.
Obviously jinxing is just superstition but there is a very real difference this season--Michigan is the two time defending conference champs and will probably be expected to repeat again given that the OSU game is in Ann Arbor. EVERY team we play, even more than usual, will be gunning for us in order to make a statement and make their season. Beat Michigan this year and you get headlines for days and possibly weeks.
Michigan will remain focused on one game at a time, blah blah blah, but psychologically that is easier said than done. The tendency is to focus on the opponents that are known threats (PSU, MSU?, OSU, CFP) and it's just damn hard to maintain the same level of motivation against the apparent lesser thans on the schedule.
Even without any significant injury or other disruption I expect at least one of our non-OSU games this year to require a surprising 4th quarter comeback or winning play in the last 1-2 minutes of the game. While that may not seem like a bold prediction since it happens all the time, it will feel very surprising because we're going into this season expecting to beat everyone, including OSU at home, and get back to the CFP where we can finally win a game and have a chance at the Nat'l Championship.