The 'Michigan hasn't played anybody' myth...
- Western Michigan beat power 5 conference Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh. Pitt beat Tennessee at Tennessee this year.
- Washington is a power 5 conference team itself that have given up 8 points a game outside of Michigan.
- Northern Illinois beat power 5 conference Georgia Tech at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech only lost by 6 to annual powerhouse Clemson.
Additionally, even though Michigan has been favored in every game, they have won by more than double the average spread over 3 games. They are crushing the experts expectations. While other power 5 teams are losing (some times getting destroyed) to inferior opponents, Michigan is taking care of business in impressive fashion.
How or why do fans of Michigan - *ahem* like Skene *ahem* - keep underestimating/belittling this team?
September 20th, 2021 at 11:32 AM ^
We've played three bad teams all at home. Its likely one of the easiest schedules in the country to date. Western is relatively solid, especially on offense but both Pitt and Tenn are bad. Washington lost to Montana at home and NIU lost to Wyoming. Doing what they have done against this schedule is great and exactly what a good team should do, but the schedule has been a very easy start.
September 20th, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
Correct. No matter how you cut it, Michigan has played 3 very bad teams.
September 20th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
We'll know a lot more about this team after playing our charged up 3-0 rival Rutgers.
September 20th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
It's actually Rutger. Learn to respect the rivalry...
September 20th, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^
Rutger. Exactly. The S is scilent. And also unseenable.
September 20th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
You called?
September 20th, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
...was it an "s"?
September 20th, 2021 at 12:41 PM ^
Actually, it's LOLRutgerz, with a silent "LOL" because to laugh out loud would be rude.
September 20th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
And is that Rutgers Hauer in that gif? The coicle, as they say in Brooklyn, is complete! We're going to give them a good Rodgering and Hammersteining this weekend, amirite?
September 20th, 2021 at 12:46 PM ^
FENCE THE GARDEN!!!?
September 20th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
Rutger? More like Buttger. Amirite?
September 20th, 2021 at 1:55 PM ^
No
That's just dumb.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:57 PM ^
You know what else is dumb? Your username.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
I actually think Rutgers is going to be a tough out for the most part. Say what you will about Schiano but his teams usually punch up pretty well.
September 20th, 2021 at 1:53 PM ^
I'm old enough to remember all the overconfidence and shit-talking people here did about MSU last season before that game. Rutgers will come to play.
September 21st, 2021 at 8:06 AM ^
Sorry. This Michigan team has a way different vibe. I sense they will not be surprised by anyone, nor take any team on the schedule lightly. They may not win them all; however, I doubt we'll have a last season performance in any of the games.
September 21st, 2021 at 8:53 AM ^
I see what you did there! "The Game" in Piscataway, anyway.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
It is entirely disingenuous to look at Michigan's performance thus far and act like it means nothing based on the opponents played, particularly for a commentariat that largely was screaming 7-5 all offseason. The team has outperformed expectations to-date, I would also argue they have done a number of opponent-independent things very well thus far. Don't extend it beyond that, next game up, so on and so forth.
Also, no they haven't played "3 very bad teams":
S&P+ overall team ratings at this juncture: WMU 79, Washington 25 (!!), Northern Illinois 100
Just to compare, MSU has thus far played NW (80), Youngstown State (NR), and Miami (29)
September 20th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
They are all bad teams. I didn't say it's not very positive that Michigan has destroyed them. It is positive. They have done what they should do and that's great news. MSU hasn't played anyone either, though Miami being a road game is a little better than Michigan's win over Washington at home. You can be happy the results are positive and recognize that the teams played are not good.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
I don't understand the continued 'Bad Teams' thing at all. Elite? No. But this isn't Western and NIU from '92. Western is 2-1 with a win over Pitt. NIU doesn't look great but they edged Ga Tech so it's not like they don't have any teeth. Washington Destroyed AK State after a bad start (which, as we all know, can happen). And it's not like when they played us they looked like the keystone cops other than when we forced them to.
IMHO the jury is still out on these teams.
Now, because of that, we don't know what we don't know, it's still game by game proceed with caution as to the real quality of our own team. But it's way to early.
September 20th, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^
I think a WMU team that goes 9-3 and puts up 35pppg will be just fine on the resume. Also people dont know the PAC12 very well. By design that league will take the biggest underperformer and turn them into giant killers. Watch Washington rip off some big wins while still losing 5 games. The key to me is doubling up the spread. Vegas doesnt make the money it makes by being of 14+ points for a quarter of a season on a team. Things are happening that we havent seen before here. The one thing thing I will say is that Michigan is always a couple series of tipped passes, dropped balls, and high sailing throws away from being in trouble. Im hoping this is the year that the forward pass doesnt elude us. Someone is going to stop our run whether it be Wisconsin, MSU, or Penn State. Hell even Nebraska shut down Oklahoma. Its all about completing those key passes.
September 20th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
Lumping in Washington with Western and NIU is just dumb. Is Washington's offense pretty bad? Yes, but I'm not sure what's up with people acting like we didn't put up 31 points against a good defense
September 20th, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
I mean it might be a good defense but I'm not saying they are just because they held Arkansas state and Montana down. I just don't get lying to ourselves about the quality of the opponent. We crushed bad teams, that is good, but seriously, I don't think you can find many teams with an easier schedule than ours to this point.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
I can find 98 teams. All I had to do was look.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
September 20th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
Every good team, not just playoff but top 15-20 team, puts up 31 points against good defenses. That’s college football now.
By scoring 31 against Washington M is in the conversation of maybe being a top 20 team this season. We don’t know for sure if Washington is a good defense because Montana and AK St. Could be horrible.
September 20th, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^
Counterpoint. The Georgia Clemson score.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
It seems a bit exaggerated to say it's one of the easiest. Many P5s have easy schedules at this point. Sagarin has UM's schedule at 36th toughest nationally and 7th in B1G. Sparty is 73rd and Rutgers is 113th. Many ways to 3-0. UM's schedule is rated 10th of Sagarin's top-30 teams. I don't necessarily prescribe to Sagarin's genius but it seems directionally more accurate than UM having "one of the easiest schedules in the country to date".
Edit: UM is 23rd and 6th in B1G by Sagarin (not sure why it changed). TeamRanking has UM as 32nd SOS.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:35 PM ^
Yes there was some hyperbole. The primary point is that it has been easy. Its not even a critique of the team, you can only play who is in front of you and do your job and this team has done that and some, which is awesome. But this weird cherry picking of Washington has only given up a few points to Montana and Arkansas state or highlighting NIU beating GT and GT hanging with Clemson while ignoring that NIU also lost to Wyoming giving up 50 to a team that scored 19 on Montana state just feels like its a big reach. Its ok to admit the schedule has been easy and still be optimistic about the team.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:53 PM ^
It's all perspective. Yes, UM looks very good at some opponent independent things. Yes, they look fantastic in many opponent dependent things. They look bad at very little. They look much better than I've seen in a long time regardless of opponent. I've enjoyed it and expect to enjoy Saturday as well. Madison I think is an L but I believe in UM in ways I haven't since 2018 (mirage) and 2016 (not a mirage, but a heartbreak).
Their schedule is middling. I wouldn't be shocked to see UW and WMU in bowls and NIU beating GT is something -- but none of the teams are in the top half of UM's schedule.
September 20th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
2018 was not a "mirage". They got decimated by injuries, in that OSU game, which extended to most of the team sitting out of the bowl game. They destroyed Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State. They also beat a Northwestern team that played in the BIG Championship game. They tied for the best record in the entire conference. If not for the mass injuries in the OSU game, then that game could have gone differently.
September 20th, 2021 at 1:39 PM ^
UM wasn't on OSU's level or FL's level in 2018. I thought they were, but was wrong. Yes, they beat a decent PSU, a down UW (both at home) and Sparty in the dump. OSU lost Bosa that year and were banged up some. I don't think many versions of The Game ends in a UM victory. Going in, I thought it was a likely UM win but they were overmatched in the wrong spots.
2016 was more impacted by injuries in my view. Obviously, every bruise and every millimeter mattered that year. That team was better than every opponent they played that year but lost 3 games. OSU and FSU obviously were coin flips and IA was in Kinnick, but I favored UM in all of them.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:16 PM ^
Michigan players who got injured in the 2018 OSU game:
Shea Patterson (he played through it)
Devin Bush
Rashan Gary
Chase Winovich
David Long
Zach Gentry
Juwan Bushell-Beatty
Grant Perry
All of those guys (except Patterson) left and didn't come back.
That's 5 NFL draft picks, that year, and that is including all the best players on defense. That's also the starting QB, starting Right Tackle, starting WR, starting MLB, both starting DEs, starting TE, and starting CB.
You can't just shrug those off with a "meh". ?
Michigan had the #1 defense going into that game....because of those particular players. Without them....they weren't #1. Lol
September 22nd, 2021 at 9:09 AM ^
That's interesting detail. Could you add the OSU players who were injured before and during the game? I know they lost Bosa earlier in the year. Also, I'd be curious what the score was when those players left the game. If you're going to say these injuries changed the game in a material way, I think you need to compare it to what happened to OSU players as well. I watched the whole game (wouldn't do it again) and do not remember thinking UM had much of a chance after the 1st quarter, even when they got it close before half.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
Did you actually watch The Game that year? Michigan got rocked to the tune of 62-39. You don’t give up 62 points because your DEs are a little banged up. Michigan got out-coached, out-played, out-everything’d. The offense was not particularly good either. That year was most definitely a mirage, albeit one that might have ended in a B1G championship if not for Maryland missing a 2-pt conversion a week before the game. Everyone lauded the defense that year until Paris Campbell and the “crossing routes from hell” OSU offense revealed the “high risk” part of Don Brown’s high-risk, high-reward defense.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:34 PM ^
I did. Did you, or did you just look at the final score?
As a matter of fact, I just re-watched it two weeks ago. We were very much in that game until our best players left the game. Not "a little banged up". Left the game.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
Edit: double post but I’ll use this one to inquire as to which of Michigan’s players’ leaving the game was the back breaker? Zach Gentry, who dropped a TD in the first half? Devin Bush, who I guess you think was going to lining up at corner to shut down Olave and Campbell in the 3rd and 4th quarters? Winovich and Gary were banged up, boohoo. As if OSU was 100% healthy at every position.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
I was at the game and the idea Michigan was ever “in it” is a joke. From the very first drive it was clear Michigan’s defense was in over its head. Brandon Watson was the personification of a gaping hole. The only thing that kept the score close in the first half was OSU shooting itself in the foot with dumb penalties. Meanwhile, Michigan’s most effective offense was getting OSU to muff a punt at their own 10 yard line. Shea’s YPA was 5.5 compared to Haskins’s 12.8. You aren’t going to win many games in the modern era when your opponents starting QB more than double’s your own QB’s YPA.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
AK, strength of schedule ranking is #32. So, not great...but certainly not fitting in with the narrative of "one of the easiest schedules in the country to date."
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
September 20th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
Not sure I would say we’ve played 3 very bad teams. WMU will be an upper half MAC team. Washington still has a very good defense and will make a bowl game this year. NIU may not be very good but wouldn’t say our schedule has consisted of very bad teams
September 20th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
If we decide to look at numbers, Michigan’s schedule ranking on Sagarin’s evaluation is 36th toughest in the country. For comparison, OSU is 13th (Oregon), PSU is 11th (Auburn & Wisconsin), Iowa is 15th (Iowa State), and MSU is 73rd. Oh, and Michigan is ranked 9th in the country in terms of performance to date.
Before this season started, I read a lot of 5-7, 6-6, 7-5 record predictions for this team based on 2020. It looks to me like we can throw 2020 out the window and look more at 2018/19 where we finished 10-3 & 9-4.
if you want to discuss how they look or how you perceive them, compare them to these two years and I believe you’ll get a much more accurate picture.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
I agree that what we have seen so far does show you can mostly just throw out 2020 (though there were still some truth to it which is why Brown got fired). But honestly 8-4 to 9-3 is mostly what felt right for this team going into the season, and outside of a swing game in Washington being a win I'm not sure someone should confidently be going above that with expectations. At wisconsin, at PSU, at MSU, and OSU are all games that will be pick ems at best or Michigan will be the underdog. The team can be a pretty solid top 20 team and finish with 3 losses.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
I mean if we're going to bring up Don Brown being fired, in hindsight, I think it's fair to say he should've been fired after 2019, if not right after 62-39 in 2018.
September 20th, 2021 at 10:23 PM ^
I would say the majority of preseason predictions were saying 7-5 or 8-4. Bas d off the first 3 games, I think that needle has moved slightly to 8-4 or 9-3. If we beat Wisconsin in 2 weeks, I think the needle will move slightly again to 9-3 or 10-4. I guess that’s what happens when you keep winning.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
The problem is that "getting paved by Michigan" is a big part of what is making you call the 3 opponents "bad". Realistically, Washington is a mid-tier PAC-12 opponent that needs to get their act together on O. Western is a middling-to-good MAC team that could frankly hang with anyone in the bottom half of the B1G. NIU is the only one of the 3 that can really be called a "bad" team... and even they have a win over a power 5 school that itself nearly knocked off a top-10 team.
One of the easiest schedules in the country? I highly doubt it. 1 power 5 team, one decent group of 5 (6) school, and one crappy group of X or FCS is pretty typical among power 5 schedules after 3 games. Have we beaten anyone that's going to be ranked at the end of the year? Eh, probably not. But 80% of teams won't be ranked at the end of the year (and that's ignoring the many FCS opponents).
No one should be booking tickets for the playoffs yet, but declaring teams "bad" as soon as we beat them is one of the worse habits of depressed Michigan fans.
September 20th, 2021 at 5:02 PM ^
Let's check the metrics. Per ESPNs SOS it is indeed one of the easiest schedules in the country, it's also not uncommon for P5 teams to have an equivalently easy schedule at this point:
Here's a sample of other top 20 teams:
Relatively Easy
Michigan 91st (most difficult out of 130ish schedules)
Oklahoma 85th
Notre Dame 77th
Ole Miss 97th
Texas A&M 111th (woof)
Cincinnati 88th
Coastal Carolina 110th
Medium
Wisconsin 62nd
MSU 54th
Iowa State 68th
Relatively Difficult
Alabama 16th
Georgia 18th
OSU 28th
Oregon 5th
Iowa 31st
Penn State 20th
Florida 14th
Still, Michigan has done far better than expectations given the schedule which is all you can ask for at this point. But yeah, the Wisconsin game will be a real test in a number of ways.
September 22nd, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
FWIW, Sagarin has UM's SOS 23rd and Teamrankings as them at 32.
September 22nd, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
FWIW, Sagarin has UM's SOS 23rd and Teamrankings as them at 32.
September 20th, 2021 at 5:16 PM ^
well, we'll see how it plays out over the next few weeks. UW's defense appeared legit to me; especially the DBs. maybe our OL is actually very good at blocking. again, time will tell.
September 20th, 2021 at 11:33 AM ^
Maybe it's because we're in this scenario every season, only to fall flat on our faces when it matters most, and nobody cares until we're over the hump
Just a hunch