CFP: 9 Teams, 4 Spots

Submitted by Brhino on November 5th, 2018 at 11:03 AM

With three weeks to go in the regular season plus conference championships, there are 9 teams remaining with a realistic shot at a playoff spot.  No, not you Central Florida.  Go ahead and claim another National Championship though, I mean why not?  

 

THE UNDEFEATED:

Alabama

There's plenty to criticize about Alabama's approach to the regular season.  The SEC is so bloated that matchups between legitimate contenders are few and far between.  There's the non-conference game against The Citadel near the end of the regular season (to be fair, we're playing Rutgers...).  But Alabama has established itself as the gold standard of college football, and until that changes, you can write them into the playoffs with a pen.  In fact, they're so highly regarded that there is some concern that should they lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship game, they might claim a playoff spot anyhow.  

Tough Games Remaining: vs. Mississippi State November 10, SEC Championship against Georgia December 1

 

Clemson

A few years ago, "Clemsoning" was synonymous with falling on your face on the big stage.  In the last few years, though, Clemson has been as regular of a participant in the College Football Playoffs as Alabama.  This year looks to continue the trend.  The ACC's two divisions are as lopsided as the Big Ten's this year, which means Clemson should have minimal difficulty in the championship game.

Tough Games Remaining: vs. Boston College November 10

 

Notre Dame

Michigan, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Florida State, USC.  Surely when the schedules were made that looked to be a murder's row of championship contenders.  But this year only Michigan has held up, with everyone else losing four or more games already this season.  And that's to say nothing of the usual dreck Notre Dame fills out the rest of its schedule with.  Of course, Notre Dame has no conference championship game.  Notre Dame's body of work is treated with such skepticism that they were placed behind one-loss LSU in the first edition of the CFP Rankings.  Nevertheless, it is hard to picture the Irish falling out of the playoff picture entirely without a loss.

Tough Games Remaining: vs. Syracuse November 17

 

ONE LOSS HOPEFULS:

Michigan

Perhaps you have heard of Michigan? Just in case you need a reminder: semi-competitive loss in the first game of the season against currently undefeated Notre Dame.  Followed by 8 straight wins, 7 of which were by 2+ touchdowns, 3 of which were against ranked-at-the-time teams.  

The one loss: Game 1 against Notre Dame, 24-17

Tough Games Remaining: vs. Ohio State November 24

 

Georgia

Hailing from the SEC Not Alabama division, Georgia has already wrapped up a spot in the conference championship as two out of its three final regular season games are non-conference.  Georgia has efficiently dispatched all challengers in the SEC East, but got crushed by the second best team in the West and avoided the best entirely.  As a result few expect Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC championship, but if they do it could seriously shake up the playoff picture.

The one loss: Game 7 against LSU, 36-16

Tough Games Remaining: SEC Championship against Alabama December 1

 

Oklahoma

What to say about Oklahoma? They're boring. They lost to the one ranked team they've faced.  They play in the Big 12, which has 10 teams, one division, and a championship game.  It's entirely possible that Oklahoma and West Virginia will play against each other two weeks in a row, first to end the regular season and second in the championship game.  

The one loss: Game 6 against Texas, 48-45

 Tough Games Remaining: vs. West Virginia November 23, Big 12 Championship December 1

 

Washington State

It's a definite down year for the Pac 12. All but one team has at least 3 losses. That one? Mike Leach's Washington State cougars.  The bad news for WSU is a weak nonconference schedule plus a weak conference schedule plus a loss to an unranked team makes for a highly unimpressive resume.  The cougars' last chance for a statement win is the rivalry matchup against a Washington team that is currently lurking in the bottom part of the top 25.

The one loss: Game 4 against USC, 39-36

Tough Games Remaining: vs. Washington November 23

 

West Virginia

The yin to Oklahoma's yang.  The only one loss team ranked behind undefeated UCF in the first CFP rankings, although last weekend's victory over a ranked Texas team will likely eliminate that problem.  As mentioned above, could very well have to beat Oklahoma two weeks in a row.

The one loss: Game 7 against Iowa State, 30-14 

Tough Games Remaining: vs. Oklahoma November 23, Big 12 Championship December 1

 

An Ohio State

It's hard to imagine a team trending downward harder without actually losing much than Ohio State.  That week 3 statement win over TCU? Oops, TCU is now 4-5. How about the top ten showdown with Penn State that resulted in a one point victory? The same Penn State that lost to Michigan by 35? Annihilated by Ultra Purdue, which promptly went right back to Just Purdue.  Barely held off Nebraska, the finest 2-7 team in college football. The collars are getting tight in Columbus.  The good news for OSU is they still have two quality games to right the ship and state their case for the playoffs.  The bad news is Urban Meyer hasn't complained about his health this much since 2010 at Florida.  

The one loss: Game 8 against Purdue, 49-20

Tough Games Remaining: vs. The Michigan State November 10, vs. Michigan November 24

 

CONCLUSION

Though it is difficult to analyze your favorite team and remain objective, it is hard to imagine an argument that Michigan is not the most impressive 1-loss team in college football, with the only potential challenger being the Georgia team that will likely lose to Alabama.  At the same time, it seems unlikely that the playoff committee would put Michigan above the Notre Dame team it lost to, so Michigan's ceiling is likely the #4 spot unless one of the undefeated teams loses.  In addition to the obvious need to win the rest of the regular season games and the Big Ten championship, Michigan needs to pull for Alabama to either handle Georgia or fail spectacularly.  The rest of the games are unlikely to matter one way or the other.

Football

Comments

Brhino

November 5th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^

If Bama loses to Auburn we're safe, because then you get the following SEC championship scenarios:

Bama beats Georgia: Georgia has two losses, don't worry about them.

Georgia beats Bama: Bama has two losses, don't worry about them.

The SEC 2-bid nightmare scenario requires both Bama and Georgia to go undefeated prior to the championship.  A loss from either of them solves it.

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Chaco

November 5th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^

I think we need to win out and have Bama beat UGA.  Imagine the arguments if the SEC champ is one loss UGA and then Bama has 1 loss.  I think our chances would be at best 50/50 of being chosen over Bama.

depending on how ND closes out we could move up to #3 ahead of them if we beat OSU handily in their Stadium in Mordor.  Not saying that WILL happen but since we’re in the realm of speculation...

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jdemille9

November 5th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^

If UGA beats Bama I'd say there's only a slim chance we get in. Bama won't be kept out and it's tough to keep out a one-loss SEC champ that beat Bama. If UGA wins only way we get in is if Clemson or ND falter before them.

I agree, even if ND goes 12-0, if we beat OSU and then win the Big Ten title game in convincing fashion I could see us getting bumped up to #3 due to ND's lack of conference title game, and weak schedule comparatively. I'd prefer to see Clemson in the first round over Bama any day.

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Benoit Balls

November 5th, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^

Im probably wrong, but I think 12-0 ND eliminates the chance of the SEC getting two teams in.  

Granted, I have long thought that ND should have lost it's "special" (in the eyes of the "powers that be") status long ago.  When all of the realignment was going on they should have been issued an ultimatum: join a conference or be left out of CFP consideration.  

Even though they are not in a conference, if they get (stay) in the top 4, then it puts more of a premium on winning your conference championship.  I cant imagine any scenario where the CFP committee essentially tells 3/5 of the power 5 conferences that their champion isnt as worthy as a second place finisher. At least not if they want to retain any semblance of impartiality.  

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AC1997

November 5th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^

I'm still taking the strategy of "win and good things happen" for the rest of the year.  I'm not worried about the playoffs with OSU still out there having owned us for a decade.  Let's knock them off and start worrying about a 1-loss Alabama.  (I think it might be 50-50 also....easier to worry about later).

With that being said, I also think the following:

  • Alabama isn't losing to anyone.
  • It is extremely rare that 3-teams from P5 conferences finish undefeated.  Thus ND and Clemson could fall victim to the unexpected upset before we have to worry.
  • I do think that UCF has a tiny sliver of a chance.  They need total chaos, but I do think the committee would take an undefeated UCF over a 2-loss team.  

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EastCoast_Wolv…

November 5th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^

I disagree that "the rest of the games are unlikely to matter". FiveThirtyEight's CFP prediction model has Michigan with the 5th best odds of making the CFP if they win out and Clemson, ND, plus 1 of Alabama/Georgia and 1 of WVU/Oklahoma. So at least according to that model the Alabama/Georgia game is not the most important outcome. We need at least one of those 6 teams to get upset but still win their conference championship (or in ND's case, just lose at least one game).

 

 

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Wolverine 73

November 5th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^

I just don’t see three teams going undefeated.  Not sure which team loses, or who beats it, but upsets seem to happen late in the season.  Win out, and I am confident we make the playoffs.

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crg

November 5th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^

Even with the double standards in place, it is not impossible for UCF to get in - it would just require so much chaos near the top that it is almost impossible (and UCF being as flawless as possible at the same time).

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Sten Carlson

November 5th, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^

My most profound gripe with the CFP is the fact that the Committee seems constantly plays a double-standard card when it comes to conference strength.  Meaning, when it suit their need — like when there is chaos in the SEC or the ACC — they’ll decide that it’s because the conference is so good they’re canabalizing each other.  They make excuses for their favored teams and they punish teams and conferences they don’t like.  

Further, and in that same vein, they insist that their decisions are about this season, but it’s clear to me that they’ve got Alabama and Clemson so far above everyone else and, due in part to weak schedules, their bias is confirmed.  If the CFP were like any other normal playoff structure there would be hard and fast rules for invitations.   I don’t care if it’s 4, 6, 8, 16 or 32 teams, there MUST some criteria.  

For example, in the scenarios above, it’s clear that Alabama would have to lose TWICE to be eliminated from the CFP.  Is there any other team afforded that benefit?  Unequivocally, not!  I don’t understand what is so hard about picking 8 conferences — yes even lower conferences — and the conference champions AND ONLY the champion is in ... FULL STOP.   But but but ... YES, I think the MW or MAC or American champ deserves to be in over the 2nd place SEC team.  People claim that it would cheapen the OOC schedule but I think the complete opposite.  

Alabama and Wisconsin, et. al., refuse to play quality OCC road games to pave their way to a top ranking.   OOC games would be awesome when they don’t matter toward your ability to get into the CFP.  We got away from the sports writers picking because it was 100% subjective.  We’ve now seen two pseudo-objective systems which are far worse because they REWARD teams for a) playing soft schedules; and b) NOT winning their conference.   

Maybe if the CFP were structured this way the conferences would do better job of dividing their talent, maybe even making a fluctuating system where there are no set divisions, they’re realigned annually based upon the previous year.  IDK, but anything is better than having 1-2 untouchable teams in untouchable conferences that have a mainline in every year.  

Oh and ND?  Fuck you!  Join the B10 West if you want a chance to play.  This independent bullshit is done.   So yes, CFU deserves a a chance.   It’s ridiculous that we’re going through these mechanations every season.  

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Perkis-Size Me

November 5th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^

I agree with just about everything you said except for one bit: 

Alabama does NOT have weak OOC schedules. I'd argue the exact opposite. They always schedule one big OOC game every year. In the last decade, they've scheduled Florida State, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, USC, Penn State, and Michigan. That's just off the top of my head. In the next few years, they've got Miami, Notre Dame and Texas on the schedule as well. 

They're also one of the few SEC teams with enough balls to actually head north of the Mason Dixon line to play a game. They very much embody the "anytime, anywhere" mantra. I will agree with you on Wisconsin that outside of a three year stretch of playing LSU and Alabama, that they only ever play creampuffs in OOC. But Alabama does not back down from playing quality OOC competition. 

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J.

November 5th, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^

Your message is simply further evidence of how far standards have fallen.  Alabama has four OOC games to schedule, and you're saying "anytime, anywhere" because one of them is a marquee opponent?

Would you be OK with Michigan scheduling Ferris State every year the week before the game?  Because that's essentially what Alabama does.

I agree with having formal qualification standards.  I don't think they should necessarily include being a conference champion, though.  Always remember 2006; the two best teams were in the same conference, and this "ghrrr ghrr conference champion durp" nonsense that suddenly arose handed a title to Urban Meyer and Freshman Tim Tebow.

Michigan would have won the rematch.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 5th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^

I think you can remove WSU from this conversation. I do credit them for only losing once, but their OOC schedule was garbage, and they don't consistently pass the "eye test." Hard to determine what their best win actually is, because the Pac-12 has fallen off a cliff. I'm sure they'll be in the Rose Bowl, which is no small feat, but they are not playoff contenders. If they sneak in, it'll be because massive chaos happens between now and conference championship weekend. 

Georgia and Michigan, in my mind, are interchangeable right now. I do think Georgia has more quality wins, but we definitely have a "better" loss now that LSU has been thumped by Bama. Either way, this situation will sort itself out in the SEC title game. Assuming Georgia loses. If they beat Alabama, we've got a serious problem. Alabama will probably still get in even if they lose in the SEC title game. And I'm not banking on ND or Clemson losing. 

I think Oklahoma needs a little bit of help even if they win out. We have better wins, and their loss to Texas is looking worse by the week. And then because transitive property, Oklahoma lost to Texas, Texas lost to Maryland, we thumped Maryland. If you're looking for a way to differentiate, there's one right there. But they'd definitely have the offense to keep pace with Alabama. The question is whether or not they could stop Alabama more than Alabama could stop them. Survey says.....doubtful. That game would probably be akin to 56-35. 

And then of course, OSU. I know they've looked shaky pretty much the whole year, but they've still got all the talent needed to compete with Alabama and Clemson. And we've got to beat them in Columbus, which we haven't done in 20 years. If they win out, don't crap themselves in the BTCG, and Alabama doesn't lose in the SEC title game, I think they're in. The CFP committee would love to have another Saban-Meyer matchup.

And lastly, any notion of UCF getting into the CFP needs to be put to bed. They'd get killed by anyone in the top 4. The only way they're ever getting in, assuming they don't move to a P5 conference, is scheduling tough OOC opponents, winning, and them obliterating the rest of their schedule. And even that might not be enough. 

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BuckeyeChuck

November 5th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^

I like Michigan's resume (even with a loss) better than ND's (even undefeated) and would rank Michigan above ND....if not for the head-to-head.

If Michigan's 1 loss was against somebody else, I would rank them above ND. Michigan's victories have been more impressive than ND's. But how could ND be behind Michigan when ND is both undefeated AND has the head-to-head? That would be unfathomable. (I guess, since I'm thinking of it, it must be fathomable.) Otherwise, I put Michigan 3 and ND 4. But I think you're right that #4 is the ceiling for Michigan if the other 3 don't lose.

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Chitown Kev

November 5th, 2018 at 7:09 PM ^

If you want CFP chaos...I have an easy scenario...Georgia Tech beats Georgia then Georgia beats Alabama in the SECCG,

Do note that the game this year is in Athens and GT has won the last two times they played in Athens

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bacon

November 5th, 2018 at 11:34 PM ^

Just keep winning and we’ll be in the playoffs. The SEC won’t get two teams in with undefeated ND and Clemson and Michigan as big ten champ. Remember how our schedule was/is viewed as brutal. We’ve destroyed highly ranked teams this year. No one wants to see rematches when you’ve got a chance of seeing Michigan. That should get us in. 

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4th and Go For It

November 6th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^

Win the next game. Rutgers. Then Indiana. Then a tough one at OSU. Then the B1G Conference Championship game vs likely NU. That's 4 more games before we really need to worry about how this shakes out.  Alabama is going unless they lose two games. Everyone else has to play 3-4 more games as well. It's hard to go undefeated in College Football. 

If we had beat ND week one, we'd have an ironclad right to a spot. We didn't, so we gotta roll the dice with whomever else has one loss at that point. You can argue these things seven ways to Sunday but with the CFP the way it is, either go undefeated (which is very hard to do) or know you're likely to get screwed by the committee if you're not Alabama or some other 1-loss SEC team. If we finish this season with a B1G championship, one loss, and Rose Bowl trip, that's incredible. If we don't get screwed by the CFP committee and we're playing with a shot at more, that even better.

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Hemlock Philosopher

November 6th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^

What if the selection committee is looking at:

  • Bama 12-1 (Loss to UGa)
  • Georgia 12-1 (Loss to LSU)
  • Michigan (loss to ND) or OSU 12-1 (loss to PUR)
  • ND 12-0
  • Clemson 12-1 (loss to BC)
  • Wazzou 12-1 (loss to USC)
  • OU or WVa 12-1 (Loss to Texas/ ISU)
  • UCF 13-0

Chaos. I'd be rooting for it if we weren't a likely victim of it. I still think we have to beat our final four opponents with authority to avoid the risk of chaos. 

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