Is 2012-2013 THE year for Michigan basketball?
A recurring theme I've heard put forward over the past month or two is that this is THE year for Michigan basketball. Go for broke, because after this year, Burke leaves, THJ leaves, and even Little Dog may leave. Beilein has pulled out the redshirts this year because it is a year to win it all.
I don't disagree that it is a year to win it all for Michigan basketball, and it's worth putting everything into it. However, I'm wondering if it's true that this is THE year. In that spirit, I thought we could take an early look at 2013 Michigan basketball and what the odds are that next year could be "The Year" too.
First off, lets set a prospective depth chart for 2013. This depth chart will assume that we lose the following players for 2013:
Player | Reason | Position |
---|---|---|
Matt Vogrich | Graduation | Guard |
Eso Akune | Graduation | Guard |
Josh Bartelstein | Graduation | Guard |
Blake McLimans | Graduation | Foreward |
Corey Person | Graduation | Guard |
Trey Burke | Draft | Point Guard |
Tim Hardaway Jr | Draft | Shooting Guard |
Glen Robinson III | Draft | Shooting Foreward |
That makes our returning curren depth chart as follows:
Player | Class | Position |
---|---|---|
Spike Albrecht | Sophomore | Point Guard |
Mitch McGary | Sophomore | Center |
Nick Stauskas | Sophomore | Shooting Guard |
Jon Horford | RS Junior | Center |
Caris LeVert | Sophomore | Shooting Guard |
Max Bielfeldt | RS Sophomore | Foreward |
Jordan Morgan | RS Senior | Center |
To these players, Michigan is adding the following freshmen for 2013 (others may be added, but these are sure things):
Player | Position | Stars |
---|---|---|
Derrick Walton | Point Guard | 4 |
Zak Irvin | Foreward | 4 |
Mark Donnal | Center | 4 |
Austin Hatch | Shooting Guard | 3 |
Ed: No Hatch. He reclassified. Blame Bourbon
This Gives us a 2013 depth chart that looks something like the following:
Position | First String | Backup | Third+ |
---|---|---|---|
Point Guard | Spike Albrecht | Derrick Walton | |
Guard | Nick Stauskas, Caris Levert | ||
Foreward | Max Bielfeldt | Zak Irvin | |
Center | Mitch McGary | Jordan Morgan | Jon Horford, Mark Donnal |
First of all, lets just come out and say it. That's a damn good depth chart. A little light, but damn good. At any rate, to figure out where we're at for 2013, we should look at lost production and minutes first. Per ESPN:
Player | Minutes/Game | Points/Game | Ast/Game |
---|---|---|---|
Matt Vogrich | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
Eso Akune | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
Josh Bartlestein | 2.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
Blake McLimans | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
Corey Person | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
Trey Burke | 33.7 | 17.8 | 7.2 |
Tim Hardaway Jr. | 33.7 | 16.2 | 2.6 |
Glenn Robinson III | 32.2 | 12.1 | 1.3 |
I am going to discount the top five guys in that list because all put together they average less than 18 minutes per game. That's garbage time that you fill with those guys to reduce the chance of injury to your starters and primary backups and so that they get a chance to play.
PG - 33.7 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 7.2 APG
SG - 33.7 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 2.6 APG
F - 32.2 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 1.3 APG
I know that doesn't cover everything these guys are doing for the team, or even close to it. But if similar production can be put up, it can be assumed that production in other areas, defense, rebounding and general intangibles will be close.
The question is, between the improvement of Freshmen to Sophomore players and the addition of high rated freshemen, do we have it? There is no good math for just how players will perform when their minutes skyrocket (Spike?) or how freshmen will perform (Irvin?), because it varies so much. Therefore, I ask you. Do we have it?
January 26th, 2013 at 8:13 AM ^
I really hope this is indeed THE year. It is so hard to catch lightning in a bottle. Part of the reason Burke came back was because of the disappointment in the losses to Ohio and Ohio University. We don't want anyone coming back in 2013-2014 for the same reason. There is so much luck that goes into winning it all. I would much rather they win the NCAA tourney this year instead of just coming close.
I will say, Hardaway and Robinson are special cases. They are going to get better advice than most, and they suffer no want in life. In their position, they have the option to stay an extra year and potentially jack up income substantially, and refine their skills. But if the cost of winning it all this year is their departure, so be it.
One thing I really wonder is if Beilein is truly recruiting in a way that guys like them are more likely to stay. He doesn't seem to be bringing in top 10 guys who are a sure thing to be a one and done. If this is so, they could be the kind of guys who would be more likely to stick around an extra year.
January 26th, 2013 at 8:47 AM ^
You raise an excellent point that I had not considered re the advice both THJ & GRIII will be getting at year's end. Hard to argue that their respective fathers won't have a lot of influence on their respective decisions and it will be even harder to argue with the outcome whatever that decision turns out to be.
Side note - wouldnt it be cool if for a game sometime in the future the two dads sat next to each other? I loved the shot of Timmy's dad & grandfather watching the game a week or two ago and could only imagine the camera shots of GRII & THSr were seated side by side.
January 26th, 2013 at 8:21 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 8:50 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 8:51 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 8:52 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 9:59 AM ^
If THJ and Trey leave and GRIII stays, which might be a possible scenario, the returning production alone, at least right now, has an average FG percentage of 54%, an average 3-point percentage of 45.7% and they are shooting a combined 70% for free throws.
Even though this includes the stats of players with limited time, that would hint at the baseline productivity as a unit, and those aren't really bad numbers at all. Assuming that more playing at least leads to marginal increases in overall accuracy (and therefore increases in their combined average of about 7 PPG), then even if we do lose Burke and THJ to the draft, we're still looking pretty good, I would think.
Whether or not we win it all, we're setting up to compete and perhaps be in the discussion for deep runs potentially for a while - if Hardaway stays another year, the outlook is ever nicer, I think, and it is pretty good as it is.
January 26th, 2013 at 10:06 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 9:27 AM ^
Also, I don't know what a foreward is in basketball.
Comment on topic: I believe this team is more talented and complete compared to our absolute best next year. It begins with the PG and we have the best one now.
January 26th, 2013 at 9:41 AM ^
I appreciate the insight, but in response to the original question: YES. THIS IS THE YEAR!
January 26th, 2013 at 9:50 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 10:07 AM ^
are all gone this year. They are all lottery pick caliber. THJ may not project that high right now but that would be a mistake by NBA scouts. He's improved his handle significantly and will continue to do so. He's a great pure shooter, a great slasher, rebounder and defender. He's very athletic. If he slips beyond the lottery, whoever gets him will be getting a steal.
Even with losing all three, Michigan should be very very good next year. Derrick Walton is very similar to Burke and by tourney time, may be an extremely capable replacement. Zak Irvin is also very talented and should do a nice job filling THJ's and/or GR III's shoes. Donnal will add another skilled big man to the front court ... and another shooter. So they will have similar depth but will be a bit younger. Both Levert and Horford have great potential and will contribute more. And McGary, if he stays, will be a beast! Although likely not as good as this year's team, they could also easily be Final Four caliber.
January 26th, 2013 at 10:11 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 10:27 AM ^
this only feels like THE YEAR because we aren't used to what Belien can do... I expect a solid ten year run with a couple real opportunities to win it all (this is obviously one)...
jdon
January 26th, 2013 at 10:30 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 10:38 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 10:47 AM ^
This is definitely the year of years. Trey Burke is getting serious consideration for POY, and is almost certain to leave. Trey will be very difficult to replace.
Michigan has 6 players with legit NBA potential, so yeah, this is the year to make a serious run.
Trey Burke: gone after this season and likely first round pick
Tim Hardaway Jr.: probably gone after this season and a possible first round pick
GRIII: Most talent on the team, future NBA Lottery pick; hope he sticks for one more year
Mitch McGary; have to see how he develops, but I suspect he will be a first rounder
Nik Stauskas: really high skill level. If he does due diligence in weight room, Nik will have a long NBA career
Caris LeVert: NBA potential in a junior high school body. If his body develops physically in college he has a chance to play in the NBA. Reminds me of Gary Grant
January 26th, 2013 at 10:48 AM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 10:53 AM ^
Yes... This is the year. We will lose only once more (Indiana at Assembly Hall), and we will run the tables on everybody else in the tourney and win the Big Ten Tournament Championship. After the first round loss last year to Ohio, Burke and THJ will only come back with more poise and composure in the tournament, and will electrify the first two opponents offensively. After we will face steeper tests but will find a way to win it all. May be wishful thinking for some, but I think it is realistic for this team... GO BLUE!!!
January 26th, 2013 at 11:00 AM ^
GR3 is projected high by NBA scouts because they see his NBA size and athleticism. WIth that combined with his shooting ability and the NBA worrying more about potential than accomplishment you can see why he's ranked high. But the fact remains that he doesn't have a great handle and is a mediocre defender right now. He can't beat his man off the dribble and they never run any plays for him. He's the perfect fit for this team right now and should explode with another year in college.....but he's a benchwarmer at best in the NBA right now when you consider who else plays small forward in the league. So I'm really hoping he stays another year.
Burke is gone for sure. I think THJ still has flaws in his game and probably is an end-of-the-bench guy on an NBA roster, but I think he'll leave early. Because the NBA loves "potential" they are biased against seniors. This is probably his best chance to get a good draft spot.
Walton will start, though I think you'll see Spike play a larger role early in the season as Walton learns the offense.
The PF spot is going to be interesting. I like Bielfeldt and think he's the one big that fits on the floor at that spot, but is he ready? I don't think you'll see the two-big starting lineup otherwise because Horford/Morgan/McGary are too similar for this offense.
Game #1:
- PG - Walton
- SG - Stauskas
- SF - Lavert
- PF - Robinson
- C - Morgan/McGary
- BN1 - McGary/Morgan
- BN2 - Spike
- BN3 - Irvin
- BN4 - Horford
- BN5 - Bielfeldt
Conference start:
- PG - Walton
- SG - Stauskas
- SF - Robinson
- PF - Irvin
- C - McGary
- BN1 - Morgan
- BN2 - Lavert
- BN3 - Spike
- BN4 - Horford
- BN5 - BIelfeldt
I think Donnal is an interesting case. I left him out here because I think they'd like to redshirt him given how deep they are with big guys (a statement I've NEVER said before about UM Bball). But he could end up playing a major role like Lavert this year. He fits at PF better than most of the other big guys for sure.
January 26th, 2013 at 11:13 AM ^
I think you are underselling GRIII. Coach B has indicated on more than one occasion, regarding GRIII, that he can in fact do the things you claim he can't: such as create off the dribble, play solid D, and they do in fact run plays for him, despite fans claiming they don't.
Like his daddy, I think GRIII can create his own shot against college competition any time he wants, and there is not much denying GRIII has a very nice outside shot, and he isn't afraid to take a big shot.
Basically, this is Trey's team, with THJ as the second option. GRIII knows his role and plays it willingly. GRIII seems to get better and more assertive with each passing week of the season.
January 26th, 2013 at 3:43 PM ^
Sure, we're going to lose a lot. And I'll also allow the assumption that GRIII leaves (which I think is a 50-50 shot, at best. Personally think he'll come back for one more). BUT
Walton starts, Irvin is a wing. Two of the three (Mitch, Morgan, and Horford) start together -- most likely Mitch at the 4 and the upperclassmen at the 5. Beilein has shown over the past few years that he'll adjust his system to fit his best players. I think McGary with a year of refinement is a psycho 4 who can stretch to hit the occassional 3 pointer.
January 26th, 2013 at 11:12 PM ^
January 26th, 2013 at 11:56 PM ^
January 27th, 2013 at 12:45 PM ^
It's probably the best team we'll have in a little while, because of Burke. Even if the others stay, we're going to regress a bit. You don't lose a potential NPOY and close the gap with freshmen, unless they're really special. I think they're awfully good, but they won't bridge the gap.
January 28th, 2013 at 11:25 AM ^
It would set this team back if GR III jumps to the Association but my gut tells me he stays, Hardaway may stay, and JB "coaches 'em up. " All that plus another strong Freshman class makes me feel good about the future. But yeah, this is THE year.
January 28th, 2013 at 12:16 PM ^
It's all good, I'm enjoying the ride right now and not thinking about where it will end. I'm stunned at the amount of success when so many left the program early. To just flip this team around like this is amazing.
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