the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection
A recurring theme I've heard put forward over the past month or two is that this is THE year for Michigan basketball. Go for broke, because after this year, Burke leaves, THJ leaves, and even Little Dog may leave. Beilein has pulled out the redshirts this year because it is a year to win it all.
I don't disagree that it is a year to win it all for Michigan basketball, and it's worth putting everything into it. However, I'm wondering if it's true that this is THE year. In that spirit, I thought we could take an early look at 2013 Michigan basketball and what the odds are that next year could be "The Year" too.
First off, lets set a prospective depth chart for 2013. This depth chart will assume that we lose the following players for 2013:
|Trey Burke||Draft||Point Guard|
|Tim Hardaway Jr||Draft||Shooting Guard|
|Glen Robinson III||Draft||Shooting Foreward|
That makes our returning curren depth chart as follows:
|Spike Albrecht||Sophomore||Point Guard|
|Nick Stauskas||Sophomore||Shooting Guard|
|Jon Horford||RS Junior||Center|
|Caris LeVert||Sophomore||Shooting Guard|
|Max Bielfeldt||RS Sophomore||Foreward|
|Jordan Morgan||RS Senior||Center|
To these players, Michigan is adding the following freshmen for 2013 (others may be added, but these are sure things):
|Derrick Walton||Point Guard||4|
|Austin Hatch||Shooting Guard||3|
Ed: No Hatch. He reclassified. Blame Bourbon
This Gives us a 2013 depth chart that looks something like the following:
|Point Guard||Spike Albrecht||Derrick Walton|
|Guard||Nick Stauskas, Caris Levert|
|Foreward||Max Bielfeldt||Zak Irvin|
|Center||Mitch McGary||Jordan Morgan||Jon Horford, Mark Donnal|
First of all, lets just come out and say it. That's a damn good depth chart. A little light, but damn good. At any rate, to figure out where we're at for 2013, we should look at lost production and minutes first. Per ESPN:
|Tim Hardaway Jr.||33.7||16.2||2.6|
|Glenn Robinson III||32.2||12.1||1.3|
I am going to discount the top five guys in that list because all put together they average less than 18 minutes per game. That's garbage time that you fill with those guys to reduce the chance of injury to your starters and primary backups and so that they get a chance to play.
PG - 33.7 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 7.2 APG
SG - 33.7 MPG, 16.2 PPG, 2.6 APG
F - 32.2 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 1.3 APG
I know that doesn't cover everything these guys are doing for the team, or even close to it. But if similar production can be put up, it can be assumed that production in other areas, defense, rebounding and general intangibles will be close.
The question is, between the improvement of Freshmen to Sophomore players and the addition of high rated freshemen, do we have it? There is no good math for just how players will perform when their minutes skyrocket (Spike?) or how freshmen will perform (Irvin?), because it varies so much. Therefore, I ask you. Do we have it?
I want the Michigan team to meet all of its goals this season, but I also want the Michigan team to meet one of my goals this season: beat sparty. Not just once; but everytime we play msu. The obvious stated, I do believe that no other B1G program has the success of msu in basketball over the last 10-15 years.
Although Michigan has won 3 of the last 4, the program has a long ways to go to match the success of msu. Sparty may not be little bro in basketball, but we all known its mentality is 100% "little bro-ish" in football and probably in life. I do hope the success of Michigan basketball will bring sparty back to its natural mentality--hating on Michigan constantly no matter what the cost. To reinforce my belief that this is currently happening, I am wondering today: what player(s)--occupying comparable position/roles for each team--would you trade? When Vogrich was starting, I might have offered him for Brandon Dawson, but that doesn't seem like equal roles/positions anymore.
So, who would you trade? Any of our starting big men for Nix? Payne?
Any guards or wings for Appling? Harris? Valentine? Trice? Kearney? Byrd?
I'm currently hating my days prepping for a licensing exam, so I appreciate any comments that help me procrastinate or kill time.
Yes, that sucked. Guess what?
It's time to get over it and move on. Our 8-4 football team lost to teams with a combined 45-3 record. All of our losses were away from home. We are/were a good, not great, football team, just like most of us thought coming into the year. We still get to watch this team play on New Years Day (Ohio State already made bowl shirts for their game: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/shane-morris-puts-game-perspective). There's a good chance that we'll play in the Capital One Bowl, which brings up some great memories:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSTp0frDDWo&playnext=1&list=PLD038920368D35B6D&feature=results_video (no embed available, it's Jamar Adams vs. TebowTime)
What's all this layin' around shit!?!?
All is not lost. We've got a top 3 Basketball team to cheer for at Crisler (http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/m-basketball-3-usa-today). We've got a very talented hockey team that hopefully figures itself out soon. In football, we've got an extremely talented recruiting class coming in, playmakers all over, a few all B1G players, and we'll see some Michigan players drafted in the NFL.
Yes, losing to those dirty cheaters from Columbus hurts, and it should. Next year we've got them in our house and let's right the ship. We'll return a bunch of starters, plug in talented youngsters all over, and play again. Remember, Hoke still hasn't lost in the Big House. He's got a chance to have 20 wins in his first 2 years as coach. That's not too shabby. We're recruiting like gangbusters and set up to be a national contender for years to come. Until then, enjoy this team. Enjoy the Bowl. Enjoy hockey at Yost. And get ready to have a top Basketball team. As a 25 year old, I'm not really sure how to handle Michigan being good at basketball. I'm looking forward to it though.
With the 2012 Basketball season approaching at ludicrous speed (Seriously, Exhibition play begins in under a month, and the NIT season tipoff in 5 weeks), I thought I'd pose a bit of a snowflake here, but one that we should all have good fun with at any rate.
It seems that, in many basketball years, a pair of players come together either as a starting group or under special circumstances (like when a team goes big or small), and bring a special element to the court. For instance, in 2010-2011, it seemed like Morris and THJ paired up in beautiful ways sometimes, with Morris finding ways to get THJ the ball in places where he could make it rain. It just seemed like when they were clicking, things really took off.
I'm wondering if there is a pair of players for 2012 - 2013 you're excited to see pair up, to see what transpires.
I really hope we get to see Michigan go big with Morgan and McGary at the 4 and 5. If you'll all remember last year, when Morgan took on Sullinger and pretty well owned him:
It shows us what an evolving, fired up Morgan is capable of. He has the heart, the motor, and the body to get it done. Now put a 6' 10" beef machine with the heart and motor of Novak next to him, ready to collapse on the hoop to put down opponents' attempts to go up, or pick up offensive boards like they were pennies on the sidewalk. It's the kind of big inside combo Michigan hasn't had since before I really got into watching them. I'm excited.
Is there a combo for this year that excites you with possibilities? Doesn't have to include freshmen. Just another year of development can help big time, even with veteran players.
As far as basketball goes, this upcoming season brings a lot of excitement and, let's be honest, raised expectations stemming from a co-big ten championship team in 2011-12.
I'm pretty sure the Badgers and Ohio [edit: I should not have forgotten to include Indiana here] will be there in the end, but I'm more certain our team will have to go through Sparty (perhaps more than once) to reach its goals.
Since it's summer and I'm bored, I did some research to try and determine how the teams match up for the upcoming season. I tried to state (within the parentheticals following a player's name) the position/s each player plays, with the earlier-stated position being the preference based on the player's history. For example "TREY BURKE (1 or 2)" means that he is ideally playing at the point guard 1 position, but he could play the shooting guard 2 position if needed; small forward is position 3, power forward is position 4, and center is position 5.
In general, I tried to group the guards into category A, the forwards into category B, and the "centers" (although bear in mind that there are few true centers playing in Big 10 basketball) into category C. The true freshmen have traditional lettering, while returning players have names in CAPS LOCK lettering. The bold lettering is for players expected to contribute meaningful minutes.
The matchups are below:
KEITH APPLING (1 or 2) and Garry Harris (2 or 1) and Denzel Valentine (1 or 2) and TRAVIS TRICE(1) (with DAN CHAPMAN (2) and KEENAN WETZEL (2) and JOE SWEENEY (1) in relief role)
TIM HARDAWAY JR (2 or 1) and TREY BURKE (1 or 2) and Nick Stauskus (2 or 1) (with COREY PERSON (2 or 1) and JOSH BARTELSTEIN (1) and [edit: Carl LeVert (2 or 1) and]Spike Albrecht (1 or 2) and ESO AKUNNE (2 or 1) in relief roles)
BRANDEN DAWSON (recovering from knee injury) (3 or 4) and DERRICK NIX (4 or 5) and BRANDAN KEARNEY(2 or 3) (with RUSSELL BYRD (4 or 3) and COLBY WOLLENMAN (3) in relief role)
Glenn Robinson III (3 or 4 or 2) and JORDAN MORGAN (4 or 5) and MATT VOGRICH (3) (with MAX BIELFELDT (4 or 3 or 5) in relief role)
ADREIAN PAYNE (5 or 4) and Matt Costello (5 or 4) and Kenny Kaminski(4 or 5) (with ALEX GAUNA (4) in relief role)
Mitch McGary (4 or 5) and JON HORFORD (healed from injury) (4 or 5) (with BLAKE MCLIMANS (5 or 4) in relief role)
What I notice is Beilein has only 3-6 players that can demand or expect major playing time (at least 20 minutes per game) based on previous production and/or recruiting hype. For Izzo, I think it's more like 7-9 players that could or will expect or demand that type of PT.
I think because of this distinction, Beiliein will have more freedom to operate Xs and Os with regard to changing lineups throughout the season. There's less pressure for him to spread a limited resource (minutes playing time) around. For example, he only has to give Stauskus and Spike minutes if they earn them. In contrast, the guards coming in for MSU are highly touted (by Izzo himself) and are competing against two proven guards in Appling and Trice. That group will test Burke and THJ for sure, but I prefer our team's tandem (with our freshman and uppperclassmen supporting them).
Group B is a little more difficult for me to analyze, however with Dawson still recovering, I have to give the edge to Michigan.
Our Group C is unproven and Sparty has talent and experience there. I have to give MSU the edge here. Hopefully we can close the gap with regard to rebounding and defensive shot blocking with our infusion of talent. [edit: McLimans, fwiw, is a player with length and experience.]
Both teams have 10 players that (most likely) will be able to give productive minutes. How many minutes does each player get? That's up to the coaches obviously, but there are only 200 minutes to give out in each regulation game.
Anyway, it looks like there will be some great games to anticipate. I wouldn't trade our group A and group B players for Sparty's or any other teams'. I think our group C has the most to prove though; I'll obviously be rooting for them.
I most look forward to seeing how Stauskus adjusts to the college game, and how well Horford bounces back after much time away. I have to believe by now, Horford can provide rebounding and defense, and maybe even put-backs and shot blocking.
Anyway, as I stated earlier, I'm bored, so I welcome any and all feedback on this topic. Thanks, all.
Nick Baumgardner did a write up on the Lebron James Skills Academy (Link Here), and noted that Burke and Hardaway Jr. were among the 6 standouts at the camp. Burke was noted as looking 'particularly outstanding', by Joe Kotoch of ProBasketballDraft.com, who chose Burke as his 'best slasher' and 'best midrange shooter'.