WTKA Roundtable 11/16/2023: America's Team
Things Discussed:
- Petitti has to thread a needle because he's tied to Ohio State/Michigan State Twitter's version of events where having in-game scouting, video, and interpretations of a team's signs from coaches sharing it is fine, but having in-game video of a team's signs from a fan with an iPhone is a player-safety issue.
- He wants to say sign-stealing is this evil thing but the language he used in the letter very carefully pulls back right before saying it.
- Unprecedented things: NCAA sharing their investigation with the Big Ten, the Big Ten going after a member institution instead of protecting them from the NCAA, and the Big Ten commissioner allowing the other member schools to railroad him into sabotaging a member institution.
- Screwed up by going after Harbaugh with Malice. They clearly got Michigan's letter and had the lawyers try to get Harbaugh anyways. The midnight punishment and the maliciousness of Petitti's pursuit has turned Michigan into the sympathetic party. This is what scares a dishonest Buckeye bootlicker like Ari Wasserman the most: the haters are exposed, and people start to question where this "scandal" really comes from.
- Seth/Brian disagree on whether OSU wants to punish Michigan's players or get The Game canceled. Seth: Ryan Day still has to recruit at IMG. Brian: They hate Michigan that much, and the worst thing for Day is getting the brakes beat off of him again.
- Leaving the Big Ten? Sam says saber-rattling, Seth says take it seriously because there is no way Michigan can remain a member if Tony Petitti is the commissioner. When this is all over, how do we get a fair hearing?
- Possible future: show USC that they're in danger from this same thing (they are), see what Notre Dame is doing, maybe go after Texas, and then sad to say if this Ultra-conference gets any legs Ohio State will come. This is what the other Big Ten schools should be concerned about: other than OSU and to a much lesser degree Penn State, they all have sweet deals, and the way they lose it is if a Michigan or Ohio State no longer wants to share revenue with them. Rutgers, MSU, Northwestern, Indiana: if you are relegated to mid-majors in a decade, this is what you did.
- PSU game: Did you get the message? Michigan beat a Top 10 opponent by yelling "RUN" every down.
- Michigan had issues with their big OL package but extra gaps nerf Penn State's defensive advantages. They had to cancel their rush package entirely and the 5-star DEs they emphasize and stunts they practice are less valuable when those are happening many gaps away from the one we're attacking. Instead of the play turning on the athleticism of the PSU front seven it turns on whether a 210-pound safety can win a block against a 270-pound AJ Barner.
- After the show: We talk basketball but I didn't get a recording of it. We are very sorry we couldn't fit it in.
[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment 2 is here. You can watch the video here:
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- What's with the theme music?
That's a top-ten team in a home game. With the best defense in America. We're saying 'run' every play. Michigan puts up 6.1 yards an attempt. Do you think it's the signs? Do you really think it's the signs?
November 16th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
Re: leaving the Big Ten, I know how extreme that is, but I think Michigan should move forward as if it's going to do that and let the conference try to show them why that's not the best choice. Michigan simply cannot stay in a conference that lets OSU do whatever it likes but that allows itself to be weaponized against the Wolverines. To quote Mad Men, Michigan needs to say this:
Is this like in the movies where I have a gun and you don't think I'm going to shoot you? I will shoot you.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
It’s NOT extreme, is the thing. That’s a disingenuous argument by mindless proponents of the status quo. The Pac-12 is dead, so it wouldn’t even be the biggest move of late.
Staying is extreme. Michigan has agency, and the reason everyone thought Michigan would lie down is their steadfast refusal to throw their weight around.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
This might seem out of left field, but the first, top-to-bottom super conference is just one entrepreneur with connections and big football name recognition from pulling this together - for example, Tom Brady.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
What has to be emphatically attached to this discussion is the conference and how it supported or did not support Michigan during the Burgergate issue. The crap that happens in college sports and Michigan gets hit with multiple game suspension for zoom and buying burgers.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
And by the way, 12.5* of the other 13 schools are garbage right now! This season had been a boring slog because all these schools that take a share of the TV money are. straight. trash. Why would we stay?
*PSU's D is elite, good on 'em.
November 16th, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
If you're giving half credit for good defense, we have to include Iowa.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
They should only do that if they have the resolve to leave the conference, if necessary, in the end. Getting called on a bluff would be a huge blow.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Just putting out there that I like this feature. Some folk here give Webb and Ross grief but it facilitates discourse that the Roundtable often disagrees but everyone’s arguing in good faith.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
Let's say M leaves B1G now - don't wait till the next TV contract - but does it now at least for football. Doesn't the current FOX/NBC/CBS contract get challenged by the networks since the package no longer includes M and now they're not willing to pay the conference the contract amounts because the conference couldn't keep its membership together and M is no longer there?
M does its own TV deal ala ND and obviously the next couple years of scheduling will be a transition period - but so be it. M starts the dominos now on the national football super conference.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
I think if M leaves right now, the grant of rights still goes till 2030. So Fox wont really care because they will keep broadcasting Michigan games. And they just wont share the revenue with Michigan.
In order for M to do their own deal, first they have to fight a legal battle to get their broadcasting rights back. Which who knows how that would go since no one has ever tried it.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
"... having in-game scouting, video, and interpretations of a team's signs from coaches sharing it is fine, but having in-game video of a team's signs from a fan with an iPhone is a player-safety issue ..."
I'd buy a T-shirt with that on it.
Creepy idea, again: OSU is playing the long game here. They'd like to move to the super conference future ASAP. Their plan is to blame UM for breaking up the Big Ten.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
if only they were that smart
November 16th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
That's a really bad idea if that's their plan. A super league in college football would make no more sense for the teams involved than in European soccer.
If you put nothing but power programs in a league, a lot of them will cease to be power programs. It's better for your brand to beat up on weaker opposition most of the time and play the occasional big game than to play nothing but big games - and lose a lot more often. Fans like exciting games, but they like winning a lot more.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
If you pay the ADs 4x as much TV revenue they aren't going to care how many losses their team has. They get their bonuses here and now. If you have 20 straight losing seasons and the brand suffers that isn't their problem.
November 16th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
I think for it truly to work, you need a Premiere League/Championship model with promotion and relegation.
Some BS I just made up on the fly:
- 32 teams, 16 up and 16 down.
- Each tier has 12 regular season games with a schedule matrix each year (no tied in rivalries, you miss three teams every year and those teams rotate on and off your schedule).
- Top 12 in the "upper" tier compete for the CFP as currently envisioned for next year, based purely on record and pre-determined tie-breakers (no polls).
- Four mini-brackets based on record/seeding in the "lower" tier to determine which four teams get promoted (think NCAA basketball bracket from Sweet 16 to Final Four).
- Bottom four of the "upper" tier get relegated; "lower" tier Final Four get promoted
- Those six teams draw randomly to play each other in three NYD bowl games. The remaining 12 "lower" tier teams get sprinkled into the existing slate of bowl games.
Maybe you would need to expand it further down the road to allow for teams to get relegated out of the lower tier and to let teams fight their way into the super conference structure, but to get started something like that could work (with some tweaking I'm sure), assuming you had 32 teams willing to commit to it.
November 16th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
I want to believe that angle, but I think OSU and Pettiti are just that dumb and short-sighted. OSU is having an existential crisis getting blown out 2 years ago and Pettiti is in way over his head and is either dumb or a strict adherent to the sunk cost fallacy. I think many other Big Ten schools are also getting their yucks in because they take Michigan and the Big Ten for granted and they think they can pummel Michigan with no consequences. We should absolutely be threatening them with de facto relegation.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
I still don't believe Michigan will leave but they have a ton of leverage and need to use it. They are one of the tentpoles of any TV deal. Hypothetically if the Big Ten deal is $1b per year with Michigan and the SEC deal is $800M per year and Michigan switched conferences those numbers would reverse. The Big Ten deal is $800M while the SEC deal is now $1B per year. The swing value of Michigan is that big.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
I think you're actually underrating Michigan's value there. I'd argue that this is a Pareto situation, with Michigan and OSU each representing ~40% of the conference's value.
November 16th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^
Trying not to be too much of a homer but my mental calculus of Big Ten value puts Mich/OSU each at 20-25% (probably closer to 25% each), PSU just under 15%, and the rest of the league making up the remaining 35-40% of the league value.
November 16th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
I would agree with 10% for PSU, and the remainder to the rest. None of the other programs are national draws. Aside from adding color to historic rivalry games against Michigan/OSU (e.g., Paul Bunyan, the Jug), they're all utterly replaceable by any AAU member.
November 16th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
Each may be about 40% by themselves, but together they're worth 90 or 95%, because a conference made up of Penn State beating the tar out of Rutgers or Iowa each week is fundamentally not watchable.
With all 3 of UM, PSU, and OSU, there are essentially 3 guaranteed "good" games every year. If one of those 3 leaves, that becomes 1 game. If 2 leave, that becomes 0 games.
November 16th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
Ono needs to be calling up the Iowas, Minnesota, and Northwesterns of the league and tell them they need to get on the side of letting an actual investigation play out if they like making that Big Ten money. Maybe it's bluster, but it's obvious this league takes Michigans presence for granted. We're a big part of why you're rich folks.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
"I would not want to be that guy's son" LMAO
November 16th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
I have no idea how Michigan can stay in this conference and ever expect to get a fair shake after this. Even if Tony titties leaves, knowing how all the other schools have colluded against us is nuts. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. To me, this relationship has been broken beyond repair.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
Nailed it. The cards have been placed on the table. Unless a majority of B1G top academic brass walk this back firmly and loudly, it's time to take our ball (and money cannon) elsewhere. OSU will probably join us, and it's OK to have the antagonist. What is not OK is having the second tier leeches pick sides.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
Why would OSU join? Wouldn't part of the point be to get away from OSU? If Michigan starts the Super Conference move, it seems like they might be able to dictate who gets in. Obviously OSU will be part of the ultimate Super Conference structure.....but Michigan doesn't need to help them.
I still think that Michigan should approach the ACC....and maybe bring Penn State along for the ride. Both schools would probably love to get away from OSU (for different reasons).
November 16th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Leaving is not about 'getting away from OSU'. It's about getting away from the organization that ganged up against you - without you in the room - and accused you of nefarious acts without evidence or precedence and then tried HARD to obtain your failure towards the goal of a National Championship.
We're not running from OSU. We're leaving our current 'friend group' because they're conniving, back-stabbing, assholes that don't like us anyway and so don't deserve our attention and largess.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
Essentially, we found out the plastics were trying to take us down while posing as our friends, so we published the burn book and ditched the plastics for the lacrosse team. But hopefully we do this BEFORE we get thrown under the bus by OSU.
(yes, the Big Ten is Mean Girls, and OSU is Lindsay Lohan. And we are Regina.)
November 16th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
Realistically, the number of eyeballs and fans OSU brings would qualify for any super conference. I think the point is not to get away from OSU as much as to get away from the rest of the dishonest and shameless members of the B1G. A rivalry needs both a pro- and antagonist.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
independent of that - whether we go to a super conference or independent or what have you - M-OSU is one of the tentpoles of CFB season. These thing CAN change - UT-A&M used to be as big a deal as the RRR, UT-UF used to the biggest game in the SEC - but UM-OSU is and has been bigger than all of those, and its import stretches back 50 years now. USC-ND is probably the only game that compares.
Every single game on M's schedule is replaceable - MSU is tougher but could be replaced with ND - probably not too much else, but the hit to losing MSU off our schedule won't be insurmountable. PSU is a game I enjoy but can be replaced by any blue blood program from anywhere in the country. Every other league game is completely replaceable - the only people who care about the history of the jug are watching that game anyway (yours truly included).
But M-OSU really IS that much more important. Even if there's bad blood, the history and the high-stakes make that game a must have - and I imagine Fox is wiling to shell out to keep it on the schedule. Ultimately, the money will ensure the game happens, because the game is that important.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
USC-ND is probably the only game that compares.
Disagree. USC-ND isn't anywhere close, and I think geography is the big difference. Most of the rivalries you listed (M-OSU, Tex-OU, Tex-A&M, Tenn-UF--plus others like Bama-Aub, etc.) go beyond just the fanbases. They ignite entire regions, either splitting states in two or setting states against one another. For varying reasons, you don't have that with USC-ND (from either side). ND is fairly unique in that it's a national fanbase but lacks a true home region (there's no war here between CA and, what, the Chicago-ish area(?)). As for USC, they have the region, but they suffer because the region just doesn't care that much (not to mention that USC has a surprisingly small and/or apathetic fan base for a program with their pedigree).
TLDR: USC-ND is a historic rivalry, but it doesn't mean much unless you're a fan of one of the teams. M-OSU, along with many of those others, are cultural events for the region even for people that aren't really fans of one of the teams...
November 16th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
The only thing I'll push back on is the "USC Apathy" angle. The country as a whole cares about football, and Angelenos are more united around USC than the Rams or Chargers - that may be changing, but for a long while it was the default football team for anyone in SoCal outside of San Diego. They were behind the Dodgers and Lakers as a favorite team, but I'd bet they're still ahead of the Rams (but by less). Less popular than M and Ohio? Absolutely, but I think by more metrics they're on par with Penn State, and Oregon is on par with MSU - that's not nothing.
But yes, USC-ND is way below M-OSU, for a lot of reasons. Additoinally UT-A&M hasn't really been replaced by any other game, altho I think M could replace MSU with ND, but it wouldn't be easy or immediate. So there are definitely a couple things that hold us into the Big Ten that USC didn't have in the Pac12. But nevertheless, I think M-OSU is the real biggie.
November 16th, 2023 at 3:56 PM ^
This touches on something interesting to me:
With Washington and Oregon coming, and WSU and OSU (NTOSU) left holding the Pac 12 bag, do those rivalry games go away? One is called "The Civil War" for pete's sake.
November 16th, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^
The well has been poisoned.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
Loved hearing Craig Ross give my wonderful lawyer a shout out at the beginning. Can confirm she knows football and uses solid football analogies frequently.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
I came for the Roundtable bashing Petiti but I stayed for Craig Ross’ Trotsky reference.
November 16th, 2023 at 1:34 PM ^
The 2nd half of that sentence could apply to every Roundtable since they began.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
Here's my issue: your takes are all logical and, while we all have our pro-UM biases, seem to balance the actual facts we know vs. the realistic severity of the situation on the field.
The problem with all of that is that while Michigan might win the battle vs. the Big Ten in the longer run, Michigan has also CLEARLY lost the war in the court of public opinion, because they don't have ESPN's platform and aren't using a PR firm to amplify their message. The "OSU/Rutgers gave our signs to Purdue" thing got NO traction even though it blasts several of the conference's talking points about why they suspended Harbaugh cleanly out of the water.
While we may all prefer--from an ethical point of view--to stand on the platform of logic and fact, the problem is that this country has huge swaths of population that still think elections have been stolen despite the lack of any actual concrete evidence. Innuendo and circumstantial bullshit are enough to win in the engagement-driven algorithmic world of social-media-as-news.
Michigan could go out and beat OSU by 30 and win the national championship but half the country is going to say "yeah but they cheated to do it" for the rest of time.
This is what scares a dishonest Buckeye bootlicker like Ari Wasserman the most: the haters are exposed, and people start to question where this "scandal" really comes from.
This is never going to happen.
I just wish UM had gone on offense rather than taking the high road of due process.
November 16th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
I agree we've lost 'the court of public opinion', but fortunately that doesn't matter until people stop watching the games (and people are going to watch...). The average tv audience (i.e., not people on message boards) are going to forget about this in a year.
Esp going to a 12 team playoff where subtle #4 v #5 decisions don't matter.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
Michigan could go out and beat OSU by 30 and win the national championship but half the country is going to say "yeah but they cheated to do it" for the rest of time.
This isn't politics. It's not that big of a deal to the average fan. They'll move on to other things to get outraged about. I think the NCAA is also very likely to drop bylaw 11.6.1 in the near future.
This will be a footnote to the season, and there will be some (mostly MSU and OSU fans) who bring it up periodically, but the rest will forget until the inevitable 30 for 30 on Connor Stalions is made.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
I'd add to this - the average fan isn't Ari Wasserman or a troll you see on Twitter or Paul Finebaum, and average fans hardly watch talking heads. We are CFB obsessives - but if you ask me about the NBA or MLB or even NFL, I have to think hard to remember who just won the WS (the Rangers, right? and in NBA it was the...shoot I've forgotten). Not only do most people forget, Dan Wetzel's article muddied the waters enough for non-obsessives, and plenty of non-SEC or non-Big Ten obsessives also put more weight into that than what Stephen A Smith thinks.
TL;DR - it's not half the country crying out, it's a very loud minority. Most everyone else either doesn't care or is more sympathetic. Talking heads aren't real life.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
Yep. "Average fan" will be saying things after the championship game like "can you believe that flea flicker they ran against Oregon?" or "What's Harbaugh's deal with that 'Jolly Good Fellow' thing?" They absolutely will NOT be saying "wow, what a tainted championship."
Even if the wildest fever fantasies of @GoBucks42069 come true and Michigan has to vacate games, they won't have to vacate anything that happened after Stalions was fired.
November 16th, 2023 at 4:02 PM ^
"Half the country" was hyperbolic, I will stipulate.
But my problem is that every single game we play from here on out, it will be a thing the announcers talk about. If Harbaugh isn't on the sidelines for Maryland and OSU, Gus and Joel will have to talk about it. The BTCG would be overshadowed by the fact that the Big Ten did us dirty and it will have to be discussed as Harbaugh's coming back. Same thing in the CFP.
I think what I really was getting at is that I think it's bullshit that Michigan has let other people completely dictate the terms of discussion.
(Also I live in Columbus and many people that are otherwise very smart people say some of the dumbest things and I'm tired of trying to reframe the narrative around actual facts, lol.)
November 16th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
Unprecedented things: NCAA sharing their investigation with the Big Ten, the Big Ten going after a member institution instead of protecting them from the NCAA, and the Big Ten commissioner allowing the other member schools to railroad him into sabotaging a member institution.
Has there ever been a time where both the NCAA and a conference have punished a school for the same thing? Feels like getting pulled over for speeding by a state trooper, then the city I was in finding out about it and sending me another ticket. But I could see how there might be good reasons for it to happen maybe.
November 16th, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
Sandusky scandal?
November 16th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
Yeah, looks like that is one.
As a result of the scandal, the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) imposed sanctions on the Penn State football program: a $60 million fine, a four-year postseason ban, scholarship reductions, and a vacation of all victories from 1998 to 2011.[8] These sanctions were considered to be among the most severe ever imposed on an NCAA member school. NCAA President Mark Emmert stated that the sanctions were levied "not to be just punitive, but to make sure the university establishes an athletic culture and daily mindset in which football will never again be placed ahead of educating, nurturing and protecting young people."[9][10] The Big Ten Conference subsequently imposed an additional $13 million fine.[11]
And even then, it was just a fine. Are there any others? Or is it just the Sandusky scandal and this? I don't follow who punished who for stuff, but I'm curious how often it happens.
November 16th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
I asked ChatGPT to name some, and it mentioned USC, Miami, Louisville, and North Carolina. But I don't find any evidence of conference punishment for any of those. For USC and Miami, when I ask for specifics, GPT says it was wrong. For Louisville, it says the ACC made it give up it's share of tournament revenue.
November 16th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
Also I guess technically, the NCAA and B1G haven't both penalized. But that feels like the idea, right? The NCAA is still investigating, so they could?
November 16th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
Michigan football would be foolish to stay in the B10- the conference has proven that it can not be trusted and it's not the commissioner- Tony is just the point person for what the majority of schools want to have happen. A different commissioner doesn't fix things.
The only way for the B10 to fix things is to admit they were wrong, apologize profusely, and write extremely detailed and limiting rules for investigating and punishing B10 teams. Included in these rules would need to be very significant monetary penalties if the B10 doesn't follow its own rules. If the other teams knew it was going to cost them 1/13 of 3 million dollars to go after Michigan/Harbaugh I think you'd have fewer takers.
These things won't happen so Michigan should leave- I think an independent model & partnering with ND for a premier game each year (averages about 7M viewers) would be good. Drop MSU & schedule more national names instead of Rutgers, Purdue, etc.
The new B10 is already screwing us with the schedule to make it very hard to win the B10-
PSU's 2024 challenging games @USC OSU home, Washington Home
#2, #7, #17 SP+ ranked currently
U of M's challenging conf. games @OSU @Washington Oregon at home USC at home
Michigan has #2, #17, #11, #7 B10 chose to give Michigan an extra top 20 in conference game Why? Same reason they used OSU fan officials in the 2016 M vs OSU game.
Maybe stay in B10 for sports other than football- I don't think M has been victimized by the B10 in basketball but Football needs to exit the building.
November 16th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
“Maybe stay in B10 for sports other than football- I don't think M has been victimized by the B10 in basketball but Football needs to exit the building.”
The problem is, and one that other schools don’t see, is that this is the opening of a can of worms. What happens in other sports when a middling to good team starts beating the top team(s) in the conference in that sport regularly? How long before the top dog in the conference in that sport does a similar style hit job on the upstart, and strongarms the other school’s coaches into railroading the upstart school and coach?
Maybe it won’t happen in the non-revenue sports. Maybe it’d just happen in football. But those other schools have to take a step back and look at this rationally while asking themselves, “What if that was us in Michigan’s position?” The precedent is set now, whether or not Michigan gets the tro tomorrow.
OSU presumably instigated this, but the conference and the commissioner are what allowed the hostile atmosphere towards Michigan to really happen. As many others have said, in many other threads about this, the SEC, for all of its faults, would never have allowed that to happen in their conference.
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