This Week's Obsession: Shirting the Sixteens
Even with McCaffery behind him and plenty ahead, we're still seeing Brandon Peters in our futures. After a shirt. [Upchurch]
The Question:
Who redshirts from the 2016 class? Which of those has the biggest impact down the road?*
The Responses:
Ace: Michigan is finally in a position where they can default to redshirting freshmen unless they’re too talented not to see the field (Rashan Gary), happen to fit at one of the couple positions in serious need of depth (Devin Bush), or auditioning for a starting job next year (David Long, LaVert Hill). As such, the list of players I expect to redshirt is long, especially on offense.
OFFENSE: QB Brandon Peters, RB Kingston Davis, RB/SLOT Chris Evans, WR Brad Hawkins, WR Eddie McDoom, TE Nick Eubanks, TE Sean McKeon, OL Ben Bredeson, OL Mike Onwenu, OL Stephen Spanellis, K Quinn Nordin
DEFENSE: DT Michael Dwumfour, DE Carlo Kemp, DE Ron Johnson, DE Josh Uche, LB Devin Gil, S Josh Metellus
A few of those guys might end up seeing spot snaps or special teams duty, and I guessed a bit with the receivers; Dylan Crawford, Nate Johnson, and Ahmir Mitchell aren’t locks to play, either, but it’s probably safe to assume the coaches won’t keep all six receiver-types in the same class. Even Devin Asiasi, who’d see the field right away under normal circumstances, might sit a year given TJ Wheatley’s emergence and the overall depth at tight end.
As for which redshirting freshman I expect to have the biggest impact, those who listen to the podcast probably won’t be surprised that I’m going with Brandon Peters, even with a few really talented linemen on this list. Peters was lights-out as a senior and is an ideal fit in Harbaugh’s offense. Even with Dylan McCaffrey coming in a year behind him, I have a really difficult time not seeing Peters as a very successful multi-year starter.
[After THE JUMP we tweak Ace's answer]
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Seth: I'd like to see them get Ahmir Mitchell a redshirt; he may be in the running right now by default but he's pretty raw at receiver. Extending his timetable also would dramatically increase the payoff for the kind of time investment it would take to make him a free safety. Harbaugh isn't averse to 3-wide sets but Michigan will have fewer snaps for WR types than all but a handful of triple-option offenses. Single-wide sets will be as common as Perry's appearances, and they need only two of the freshmen to play to go seven deep.
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| I wanted to play early too, son, and I walked in here looking a lot more polished (and a lot more middle-aged) than you. Let me tell you if I could go back and do it all over again I'd rather start in 2017. [Fuller] |
Peters is justly off the board but the most important guy we won't see this year (probably) is Bredeson. Michigan graduates most of the Hoke guys who've seen a snap this year, and early returns on the rest have been dodgy, especially at tackle. If Bredeson is pretty good, the path is clear for him to be a four-year starter at RT.
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Brian: I more or less agree with Ace's list of redshirts, give or take a wide receiver. If Hawkins or Evans ends up in the secondary they instantly become much more likely to play this year.
There's also been enough chatter about the early-enrolled McKeon to assume he'll get some scattered snaps.
And Metellus will probably play just because Michigan needs safeties badly next year.
Assuming the latter two play but the WR redshirts are correct, my guy is Joshua Uche. Uche was just named co-sleeper of the year and the other guy isn't on Ace's redshirt list; he's a tremendous fit as a blitz-mad LB under a guy who covets blitz-mad LBs. It is highly likely he emerges into a major role next year if and when Peppers heads to the draft; no offense to the linebackers on the roster but I have a hard time seeing Brown pick one of them at SAM when he's got a premium edge rusher available.
I expect Uche to have a Jake Ryan kind of career, hopefully minus the shift to MLB late.
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David: I also agree with Ace, for the most part. On offense, I unfortunately would not be surprised to see Bredeson play some. While he does not have the frame that Newsome has, it seems that Harbaugh will throw guys out there in certain packages and see what happens. Plus, he's the most college-ready of the three OL and probably the most versatile. I think Bredeson could be the 2016 candidate for "Ugh, Why No Redshirt?!" Perhaps, that will be an upcoming TWO. The rest of Ace's list should be correct. It would be nice to possibly save a year with another WR or Asiasi, but I don't think Harbaugh is going to keep all of his new toys off of the field.
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| Running backs don't typically wait. [Upchurch] |
On Defense, Bush, Long, and Hill are shoe-ins to play. Hudson is almost certain to get snaps, as well. EMB could get a shot if the line-backing goes worse than expected. After that, no one else seems ready or needed. Brian says Metellus and I suppose there is a case for that...hopefully not just downing kicks, if so. Obviously, Rashan Gary will not redshirt.
Biggest impact because of a redshirt? Let's go with Michael Onwenu. That man might actually be a real beast. I have never seen a dude of that size move the way that he does. There was a clip of him playing left tackle, sealing the end, and then caving him into the rest of the line like a bulldozer...and he is not even a true left tackle! He will obviously need some weight training and technique-sharpening, but the potential is certainly there. I think Onwenu's ceiling is crazy high, and if he comes close to hitting it, he could single-handedly cause more people to watch line play in football because they'll be scared of missing him consume a defender.
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Adam: Here's my redshirt "hot" take: Asiasi won't get one. Jay Harbaugh has brought up Michigan's use of a four-tight-end set in a non-goal-line situation multiple times, which is indicative of the ample opportunity for guys in that position group to see the field; there's also a bevy of pretty large, pretty fast dudes vying for those opportunities. I think Devin Asiasi's too talented to not be utilized in 2016, especially since his size and recruiting profile seem to indicate that he's a blocky catchy type who should be more advanced at the blocky part than most young players. Otherwise, I think we've plowed the "who will redshirt" ground thoroughly.
As for who's going to benefit most from not playing in 2016, I'm going with Nick Eubanks. He's pretty Devin Funchess-y right now: tall, lean, athletic, dozens of pounds from holding up at the point of attack. Eubanks' senior highlight tape starts not with a long touchdown catch or one-handed grab but a leveling of an unblocked DE opposite where he lined up and, two plays later, him ripping a DB to the ground in the red zone; he's already a quality receiver, and his penchant for blocking should help turn him into a very productive H-back if he's able to put some weight on during his year as an understudy.
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Seth: So some kind of consensus:
Playing immediately: Gary, Walker, Bush, Long, Hill
Probably no shirt for depth: Walker, two or three out of Crawford, N.Johnson, Mitchell, McDoom (in that order), Metellus
Might have to burn: Asiasi or McKeon, EMB
Probably redshirt: Peters, Evans, Davis, Eubanks, Spanellis, Onwenu, Dwumfour, R.Johnson, Uche, Kemp, Gil, Hawkins, Hudson, Nordin
Khaleke Hudson may see time on special teams or safety.
would prefer this not happen. Redshirt him this year, then unleash Hell with him next year after Peppers is the 1st pick in the NFL draft.
Looking forward to 4 years straight of Hudson destroying opponents in the B1G!
If he's starting next year, he needs to see the field this year.
only because I think he has too much talent and instincts that he could easily play a little safety.
Kemp? I know we have pretty good depth on the DL but he enrolled early, he's already big enough (?) and he comes from a football family. Anybody think he'll get snaps?
I do, for sure. We need to get some DL guys ready after this group of upperclassmen departs, and Harbaugh singled out Kemp as the guy of the early enrollees who seems like he's already hit his groove.
I'm betting that a lot more true freshmen will play than our fine authors expect. My reasons:
1. Harbaugh said he's a believer in playing capable guys in their first year instead of redshirting them.
2. We're losing a ton after this season and will need a bunch of contributors to come out of nowhere next year.
3. We got some really good recruits in that class, and this is the kind of year when a couple of unexpected contributions - or some depth - could be the difference between a very good season and an all-time great season. We're all in for a title run this year.
The DL depth argument hinges on Charlton swinging to WDE. At 270+ pounds that's pretty massive for the position and he's not shown consistent edge rush capabilities.
WDE is more like a SAM than a Wormley/Henry/RVB-like SDE. We have Winovich and Marshall - neither of whom are proven.
If nothing else, they'll want somebody (maybe even a nominal SAM like Uche) to fill the Jake Ryan at situational DE pass rushing specialist role.
If Charlton switches over to WDE it'll be because Gary forces the move or failings from Winovich/Marshall do. Either way Michigan will probably want their EEs to get some seasoning for 2017, when the DL depth evaporates and guys will be moving from outside to inside.
Higdon played last year when there were 4 obvious RBs ahead of him (Green, Smith, Isaac, Johnson). This year is the same deal with Davis replacing Higdon with Davis. The fact that Davis came in early helps him, and I think he has a unique enough skill set to contribute either at RB or FB.
Kemp I think will rotate in as a backup to Taco. Winovich and Marshall are obviously there as well, but I just like Kemp as a player and think he'll bust into the rotation by the end of the year.
I really want to see this work. The anti-spread. The scrunch.
Go Jim!
I'm going to use your bit this year whenever I see two (2) TE sets, let alone four (4). "HEY! THE SCRUNCH!!" I think this is funny.
Just running it a few times would be great for TE recruiting, too. That's the kind of thing we'd hear in quotes from top TEs along the lines of "I mean, those guys run some 4 TE sets, so they're all about the TE over there."
I think Chris Evans will play. He has speed and an ability to make you miss that is not prevalent on the current team. I think Harbaugh will find ways to get him the ball for a few plays a game that take advantage of these skills. Steve Breaston 2.0.
How can they redshirt Captain America?
Booooring.
Let's change the question. If you were called upon to organize Captain Kirk's away team for his latest adventures on an as-yet unexplored M-class planet, who out of the '16 class would you redshirt?
Bear in mind this isn't limited to the high likelihood at least one will die. Being on an away team requires courage in the face of danger, athleticism when stunts are called for, patience when Kirk has sex with green-skinned women, good hands to handle hot-glued props, and you never know when you'll have to execute a reach block on a Klath'thlrrroean Slug-Beast if Doc Bones is in danger of having is liver sucked out by a proboscis. The size of the team isn't fixed; they all have to be young and male (for whatever reason) but thankfully all our recruits check those two boxes.
most of the people aboard the unfinished Death Star when the rebels obliterated it were merely contractors...just trying to earn a living.
Eddie McDoom is a Sith Lord.
Aww, that's bullshit... I'm a gov't contractor - why'd you have to go there? I've always thought of myself as one of the anonymous, run in the mill, Jedi's. Now I'll think of myself getting blasted on that Death Star. Thanks, man...
+1 for the Clerks reference
I think Nordin will play and possibly Kemp.
Totally agree about Nordin. We don't want Allen's leg to fall off from overuse. I expect Nordin to handle the kick-offs and some garbage time field goal attempts to get him some experience.
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Andrew David. He was horrible in the spring game every kickoff he attempted was short and bounced out of bounds.
I don't necessarily think Nordin will play, but I think there's a good possibility he might play. I was surprised everyone assumed he would be redshirted; if he's the best kicker (and kicker doesn't seem like a position where freshmen are particularly disadvantaged), he'll be playing, period...
Here is a list of postions where players will "burn" red-shirts:
- RB - There's rarely a good reason to red-shirt a RB, particularly one that can contribute at special teams. Between Walker/Davis/Evans, I would guess 2 or 3 play.
- WR - Those who profile to lining up in the slot will likely get a chance to contribute early given need for a playmaker with more upside than Perry. That'll likely result in one being a meaningful contributer and another one (or two) getting a handful of snaps in the non-conference schedule and then not seeing much playing time. I could see Hawkins and Mitchell both red-shirting (given positional uncertainty and proven outside WRs ahead of them) ... or them not wanting to and instead contributing on special teams with scattered garbage time snaps. Remember Michigan needs WRs next year badly - they'll want them seasoned and ready.
- OL - one of the OL will very likely play. The coaches are openly calling for a freshman to step up. Maybe that's a motivational ploy but probably not. Michigan's an injury away from relying on unproven depth players who haven't shown much and OT depth especially is nil. Beyond Dawson I'm not sure the veterans are much more proven than the freshman, so we could easily see a Bosch-Cole-Newsome situation again.
- K - if Nordin can play he will. There's no good reason to red-shirt a competant kicker and asking Allen to handle every element of the kicking game alone is probably foolhardy.
- DE - Rush end is a position of need for Michigan and with early enrolees here I am betting at least one of them plays on special teams if nothing else. Kemp seems more likely to contribute.
- LB/S types - Gil and Metolius seem likely to contribute on special teams those are positions where there is going to be an on-going open tryout to prepare for next year.
- TE - I think the depth here is getting overstated given that TJ Wheatley essentially replaces a Williams, whose snaps he is unlikely to match given the experience difference (i.e., he'll mess up on a blocking assignment, get chewed out, and pulled to the sideline at some points this year)
I would be a little surprised if there were more than 10 red-shirts. Michigan projects to have a bunch of one-sided games through October this year and a bunch of vacancies opening up in 2017. A lot of guys are going to play snaps in meaningless situations for dubious development reasons.
It shouldn't matter to you when they do. Red-shirts are overrated. If you are a program that can bring in top 10 classes every year, then QB and TE/OL are the only positions where consistently using red-shirts is worthwhile. It's nice if you can do it with LBs and Safeties, but that requires exceptional depth. Typically red-shirts (beyond QB/OL) are individuals who are unprepared or in situations with exceptional depth (e.g., interior DL this year). If they aren't pushing to play as freshman chances are better than not that they'll get passed over sometime down the line.
especially the part about the one sided games. I'm assuming there are going to be a decent number of games which are over early in the 3rd quarter and the second and third stringers (and possibly most of the players that don't start) are going to get playing time.
I think you're better served to Hold on to the option and let the walk ons play in that situation. We're about to see what the get guys in garbage time approach will give us with safety depth next year.
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for different folks. The freshmen who red shirt this year will be 5th yr seniors in 2020. If Harbaugh is still the coach in 2020 the roster is going to be so stacked with talent it's going to be rediculous. What year a player is will probably be the last thing on our minds.
Lock to Play: Gary, Hudson, Bush, Long, Hill, McDoom (or another small WR), Mitchell (or Hawkins)
Likely to Play: Nordin, Assiasi (or another TE), Davis, Walker (or Evans), EMB, Kemp (or R.Johnson), Crawford (or N.Johnson), Bradeson (or another OL), Gil, Metellus
Likely redshirts: Peters, McKeon, Eubanks, Uche, R.Johnson (or Kemp), Evans (or Davis), Hawkins (or Mitchell), N.Johnson (or Crawford/McDoom), Spanellis, Onwenu
Lock to redshirt: Dwumfour
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So that's 11 red-shirts for my guess, but injuries or special teams ability could bump it down further.
Old school.
I think we will see more red-shirts in the future when OL depth stabilizes. For now this team is still grasping for competancy along the OL. There will be years where we hit 15 red-shirts at some point but this won't be one of them, I'm pretty sure.
I think the MGoBlog staff analysis of redshirts has been a consistent weakness. I'm not sure why that is, but they aren't going to like how few redshirts Harbaugh gives out.
I'll be very surprised if Asiasi redshirts for any reason but injury. I'd rate only Bush and Gary as bigger locks to play. Nordin redshirting would likewise be a surprise. I think he'll be good enough to win one of the kicking jobs and that the coaches would certainly prefer that he does. We expect our future starting CBs to play. Our starting safeties are graduating too. Somebody is going to be groomed to take over along with Kinnel.
You can go down the line and the only positions where red-shirts are warranted are those where depth is set not only for this year but next.
QB: Yep. Speights and Okorn both here.
RB: No reason to red-shirt anyone anyway, but with Smith, Johnson, and perhaps Isaac out the door they don't want to rely on someone who is uhhhh...green.
FB: This one is interesting. If they red-shirt Davis it may indicate they want him here eventually.
WR: Immediate need for an impact playmaker, preferably at slot WR, and then Darboh/Chesson graduating make this a position where you expect 3 or 4 freshman to play.
TE: M loves TEs and none beside Butt are proven now that Hill is at FB. Eubanks could be a Funchess. Assiasi could be a Williams. McKeon early enrolled and got praised so maybe he forces his way into the rotation also.
OL: Need capable depth now, need starters next year. 1 will probably play, 2 only if there are injuries.
DL: Deepest position on the team. Red-shirt beckons unless you're the #1 recruit in the country.
DE/OLB: Immediate need given Ojemudia and the LB exodus and lack of PT for Winovich/Marshall/etc. Brown hand-picked some of this personnel and he's never been one to put 270 pounders (i.e., Charlton) on the edge.
ILB: Immediate need behind 2 presumed starters.
CB: 3 departing seniors means we need to play at least 1 of the freshman, 2 very likely.
S/NCB: 2 departing seniors & Peppers (probably) means we need 2-3 freshman to play.
PK/P: Allen's supposed to do everything and is a senior so double important.
Other than QB and DL - every position has a need. That means the guys that red-shirt are the ones who don't step up or just aren't ready physically. 6 departing DBs, so I'm not sure any of the DB recruits are going to be red-shirted unless they can't hack it.
I didn't disagree with any of Harbaugh's redshirts last year. Did you? I mean:
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Perry was 1st on the depth chart at slot receiver out of fall practice. Play him.
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Newsome worked his way up to 6th OL and was expected to start at LT this season, plus be of help in important games last year because in Harbaughffense 6th OL plays you. Play him.
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Cole was 2nd on the depth chart at slot and 4th outside. When he proved he couldn't hack it they were getting a medical on him. Then he smoked his way out of the program. Still no problem with how they handled him.
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Higdon was redshirting until Drake Johnson got hurt. At that point they hadn't found a running back so they gave the kid a shot to have a Hart career. Since RBs get used up and you always have a pile of them I was fine with that.
- Kinnel was actually ahead of Dymonte at points and seemed likely to start as soon as 2016. Even so they waited a couple of games to burn the redshirt. I thought that was more prudent than I expected them to be, and was fine with it.
Often a coach's first class will play early because of greater attrition and getting guys he wants to fulfill a certain role, and this was conservative by the standards of the last three Michigan coaches. They got redshirts on Malzone, Gentry, Wheatley, Ulizio, Runyan, S.Johnson, R.Jones, Washington, and even the kicker, Andrew David. They even got a redshirt on Shane Morris! And when Brian Mone was available for Florida (and chomping at the bit to play vs OSU) they held him out then too so he'd get his full medical year.
I can't complain about any of those decisions. Newsome maybe a little more now that he had such an awful spring game but it's not fair to use my perceptions from now when at the time I thought it made sense.
It's telling that when you say "look at Harbaugh's red-shirts" you scrutinize the freshman that play (because they 'burned their red-shirt'). I scrutinize the ones that didn't. All the guys that played presumably did so because they helped the team get better. What is there to disagree with? Harbaugh knows what he is doing.
QBs and OL should generally red-shirt (and I think a lot of TEs fall in this category since they are kinda 6th OLmen at the). So: Malzone, Gentry, Wheatley, Ulazio, Runyan -- nothing to scrutinize. Beyond them there are just 4:
- Andrew David failed - they had to use a walk-on punter to kick and his backup was a walk-on too. Kickers usually are who they are (Gibbons was obviously an exception to this) and Michigan immediately recruited Nordin. It's doubtful David ever kicks for Michigan.
- Johnson and Jones failed to a lesser degree- Michigan badly needed an edge guy to replace Ojemudia but the freshman were not capable [nor were the other underclassmen] and Michigan resorted to using undersized converted OLBs. Their stock, relative to how I perceived them as recruits has fallen. I would not call them failed prospects, because it is too soon and because some people are recruited with physical transformations in mind (this could certainly go for Johnson), but the chances of them being impact starters or NFL draft picks is way down.
- Washington red-shirted maybe for physical development and maybe due to the extraordinary depth Michigan had in the secondary. A secondary where a starter on a top 20 Stanford defense from the previous year could barely get snaps. I don't have a problem with this, given the situation.
So to summarize- I think you are looking at this backwards. A red-shirt isn't really a decision so much as an outcome. They didn't "get redshirts" on people, they "had to redshirt" people who couldn't perform on the field. Rooting for red-shirts is rooting for guys not being really good. * Most of the best players are 4-year guys even though very few of them can start from Day 1.
I am glad Kinnel and Newsome played - it means they are probably going to be really good. That doesn't go for David, Johnson, Jones, and Washington (though obviously I hope I am wrong on that.)
If you need a red-shirt beyond QB/OL you're probably not that good. You're SUPPOSED to play. If you didn't - why not? There should be a good reason, otherwise...you better get better faster than everyone else.
*One can argue that the extraordinary depth in our secondary last year and DL this year is something to aspire to. Those create situations where red-shirts are all but guaranteed for anybody outside of the Peppers/Gary level. So in a way, red-shirts are a consequence of great success. I just think that's not real realistic in today's football. Some guys are going to fail and that's just how it is.
I'm not going 40 rounds with you on redshirts again. You are still wrong:
"I don't want to redshirt. It's not our plan. We don't recruit and then say let's sit them down for a while. We want to play them immediately."
“If you’re not good enough, you won’t play or if you’re hurt, you won’t play,” “If you’re recruiting a good player, play him.”
- Urban Meyer
Because of exceptional depth OSU did red-shirt 21 of 25 recruits last year, but that won't happen again in 2016.
You've made it clear you're unwilling to change your mind on the topic, so I won't bother breaking down why stock options are a poor analogy.
We'll just let the season play out and once again a bunch of recruits projected to red-shirt will see them "burned" by (THE HORROR) playing football, once again 5th year transfers (desired and not) will depart, and once again Michigan will recruit a talented recruiting class with some future NFL players on it (some of them from marginal recruits taken at the end of the class like Frank Clark).
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To catch you up I wrote an article last year on redshirting decisions at UM dating back to the 1993 class (data are here) and Lanknows argued some in the comments then wrote a full diary, so I fisked that in Dear Diary and then we got into it in the comments again.
Original is here: http://mgoblog.com/content/h4-burned-redshirts-order-argh
To summarize the better parts of arguments as I understood them, Lanknows said there's value in not auto-redshirting because of competition, and I agreed; and he said there's value in getting snaps if you're going to play soon and I agreed; and he said clearing out players faster gets you more recruiting opportunities and I disagreed.
At this point we are just really arguing about what to do with the players who aren't going to get many snaps and aren't going to affect more than 1 or 2 plays a year. And not QBs or OL. Like we'd probably disagree on EMB this year--I don't think he's arguing for Brandon Peters to play this year, and I already said in this article that at least two of the receivers ought to play.
To the first two points I said that's a value judgment you make on an individual basis and I think he agreed. To the last point, I said a redshirt is an option you can only exercise once, so there's value in retaining it as an asset. If you get to Year 5 and the guy can't play, you can send him off with a handshake and offer the next worst player on your recruiting radar.
So that's where we went off the rails. I had an exhaustive list of 5th year seniors who contributed, and he wouldn't accept the stock option analogy, and that took 40 rounds. I do think this is the first time he's brought Urban Meyer's honesty into the equation.
There's one more point he should have made, which is a 5th year guy is usually able to grad transfer, so when you make your decision on cashing in your asset remember he could potentially leave and play immediately for anyone else that year. But that's a rarity. Usually if you have a 5th year player in line to start and you're still the guy coaching him, he's going to play for you.
"arguing about what to do with the players who aren't going to get many snaps"
Because if you're good with Newsome and Kinnel, who barely contributed relative to what they could feasibly do as 5th years, it's a fine distinction indeed.
What I think we're arguing about is a general philosophy/attitude about red-shirts. To me, that shouldn't be an objective. Freshman who play shouldn't be viewed as lost opportunities. The notion of "burned red-shirt" shouldn't exist. All a red-shirt means is that a kid wasn't ready to contribute.
The difference is viewing the decision/outcome as a referendum on the team vs. on the player. The red-shirtists see playing freshman as a problem with the team. People like me see it as a question about the players. It's about your expectations for the program. I listed out the many reasons (ancillary as many of them are) why attempting to red-shirt people systematic of a 5th year.
I suspect Seth and I would agree on 90% of red-shirt outcomes. There's guys (e.g., Dymonte Thomas) that I'd like to have an extra-year on, but his freshman contributions, like Kinnel's, were significant enough that it doesn't give me any real regret.
It (burned red-shirts) are often discussed negatively, but they really don't matter much. They're a lot like satellite camps (often discussed positively).
Blake Countess left. Justice Hayes left. Blake Bars left. Willie Henry left. It's not a rarity at all. The reasons vary widely but the 5th year has to be mutually beneficial - after 4 years it often won't be.
Part of my argument is that times have changed and the grad transfer rule makes 5th year players essentially free agents. That really opens up another recruiting type situation - at the same time that Michigan is telling 5th year guys they have to try out to make the team again.
You'll see a lot of Blake Countesses.
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Those examples (and their frequency in recent years combined with the variety of rationale for leaving) illustrate that it's increasingly unlikely that you actually get to exercise the option you 'bought' by red-shirting. Treating this is a given is ignoring a lot of...data points.
If you're still arguing freshman contributions < 5th year contributions you're missing the whole point. There's not much else to say beyond - start over.
There are real costs (scholarships spent, recruiting impacts, roster uncertainty) to red-shirting people. As the payoff for investment becomes increasingly unlikely, the cost/benefit ratio tips.
By the time the 5th year option arises, IF it arises for the program, the red-shirt is a sunk cost. This biases decision-making. If those costs are ignored systematically (as they are in the evaluations made by most fans) there is a significant long-term inefficiency.
Well shit if Urban Meyer says a thing it must be true, even if he immediately belied it.
Urban Meyer, the biggest "play everyone" advocate you can find, with one of the highest ranked recruiting classes in the country, played four of his twenty-five recruits.
And this HELPS your argument?
1. He's a really good football coach. One of the 10 best on the planet. Like Harbaugh, his opinions on football strategy warrant respect and consideration.
2. Meyer's 2015 class and his atypical approach is illustrative of an exception. That team was loaded up with veteran depth to where the young kids had no business seeing the field on merit alone - at least not in competitive situations. That's a valid reason to red-shirt kids, as I've written above and previously.
AND YET - It might come back to bite him this year if there's a bunch of redshirt freshman playing and looking unprepared. There's also a real good chance it doesn't help him much, when a bunch of those kids don't play their 5th years at OSU (which is very likely) be it for good reasons (NFL) or bad (not good enough to earn another year, transfer to another program despite OSU's wishes).
Like Meyer, I acknowledge the value of the 'option'. Like Meyer, I think it's dramatically overvalued and would not consider it a goal or ideal.
The concern over redshirts here seems a bit extreme. The depth issues associated with not having guys for 5th years are caused more by going through coaching transitions and lost recruiting years due to coaches on the hot seat. If Michigan didn't suffer in the 2010 and 2011 classes, then 2013 and 2014 wouldn't have had so much youth on the 2 deep. And the recruiting classes of 2014 and 2015 suffered again which will have repercussions in 2017-2018.
If Harbaugh can sustain success through year 2, he should be able to keep bringing in top level classes that don't lead to regrets about players not getting a 5th year. Plus, the development is much better under Harbaugh which should mean players are field ready sooner.
If Harbaugh keeps pulling in classes like Bama and OSU, most of those recuits aren't looking to be in college for 5 yrs. We'll start seeing UM join the ranks of teams who are consistently having players go pro before their eligibility is up.
Are something teams with less talent have to do to attempt to overcome a talent disadvantage. To elite teams, there's more to be gained from having more lottery tickets.
Exceptions are QB and OL, where the extra year is usually critical for development, rotation is minimal, and there isn't a skills overlap on special teams.
Khaleke Hudson will see the field this season. It may be on special teams, it may be on D, it may be on O, but he will play.
Kid is a flat out baller and the best players play. The future is very very bright!!
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