Vanderbilt 66, Michigan 65
The 2022-23 Michigan Men's Basketball season is mercifully over after today's crushing loss to Vanderbilt in the second round of the NIT. if there's one thing you can say about this team, it's that they died as they lived, collapsing late in games and rescuing defeat from the jaws of victory. Despite playing without both Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard, the Wolverines put together a solid game, leaning on the heroics of Hunter Dickinson and Dug McDaniel to get them to an ESPN calculated win probability of 96.7% with 1:30 to go. And then? Collapse. Again. Michigan turned it over on three straight possessions, allowed Vanderbilt to score each time off turnovers, and the last chance basket to win at the buzzer didn't go down. 66-65, a 9-0 run by the Commodores in the final 58 seconds to close.
The first half had a few distinct chapters, the extended Vanderbilt run to take a lopsided lead, the extended Michigan run to close the gap, and then the back-and-forth last few minutes leading to halftime. Michigan began with a small 5-0 lead, which was immediately followed by a 17-0(!) run for the Commodores, who threatened to blow the Wolverines right out of the building. Michigan was held scoreless for nearly six minutes, their tires spinning in the mud but not gaining any traction, while the hot shooting of Vandy forward Colin Smith built the home team's lead up. Smith made three three-pointers and a layup for 11 of Vanderbilt's 17 points during this period of time.
Michigan snapped the drought with a tip-in shot by Terrance Williams II and from there, it was the Dug McDaniel show, as the diminutive PG willed Michigan back into the game. He converted a three point play at the FT line and then started pulling up like Steph Curry, nailing successive triples and long twos. His three with 9:21 to go in the first half tied it at 20 and when Williams made a pair of free throws a few minutes later, the Maize & Blue had the lead back. For the final five minutes of the opening half, it was a competitive game, each team answering the other and the lead for both sides never more than one score. Ezra Manjon's jumper put Vanderbilt ahead 29-28, but Dickinson's hookshot propelled Michigan to a 30-29 lead going into halftime.
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
At the break, McDaniel was the hero for the Wolverines, 13 points to lead Michigan (no one else had more than six). In the second half, the hero would be Hunter Dickinson, who began to exploit his size advantage inside to dominate in the paint. The teams stayed close through the first six or so minutes of the second half, but Dickinson began to control the game and gave Michigan padding. He scored eight straight points for Michigan to put them up 49-42 and he began the half a scorching 6/6 on FGs. Neither team was shooting well from the perimeter and so Michigan's presence of a dominant post player was what was giving them a chance to build up a sizable lead. At the halfway mark, Michigan led 54-47.
The Michigan edge stayed pretty consistent as the final quarter of the game rolled along, Michigan playing a two big lineup and Tarris Reed Jr. starting to join in the scoring from the free throw line. Joey Baker also began to heat up, the first non-McDaniel perimeter presence for Michigan to come on-line. Baker's long two (originally called a three) left the score at 61-54 with four minutes to go. Vanderbilt answered with a three by Trey Thomas via great ball movement and the Commodores came back down the floor a little later with a chance to cut it to within one, but Thomas' 3PTA was off the mark. Michigan rebounded it down and McDaniel would slice into the lane, connecting on a pretty tear-drop shot off the backboard and in. 63-57 with 2:31 to go.
The next minute was the period where it seemed as if Juwan Howard's crew was putting the game away. McDaniel drew a charge on Jordan Wright during Vanderbilt's ensuing offensive possession and that was followed by Joey Baker coming off a screen to catch-and-shoot a long two from the free throw line... swish. 65-57 with 1:45 to go. To improve the conditions even more, Wright missed another three after Vanderbilt went back up the court, which was rebounded down by Baker with 1:32 left. This was the point when the game was seemingly over, the 96.7% win probability moment I referenced in the opener.
[Campredon]
Vanderbilt opted to play defense and let Michigan run roughly 1/3 of the remaining time in regulation off the clock on the ensuing Wolverine offensive possession. Michigan entered the post but Dickinson missed a layup in tight, a miss that would turn out to be fateful. Quentin Millora-Brown snatched the rebound, passed to Tyrin Lawrence, who drove the lane on the Wolverines, was fouled, but made the basket and was granted what appeared to be NBA continuation (Juwan Howard was not happy). Lawrence made the free throw to complete the three point play, leaving the score at 65-60.
Jerry Stackhouse called timeout to dial up a full-court press defense, looking to force turnovers, and it would work wonders in a way few could imagine. The first time against it, Terrance Williams II made it across the center line before coughing the rock up. After turning it over, he fouled Manjon and with Vanderbilt in the bonus, the Commodores got two quick free throws (Manjon went 2/2). 65-62 with 49 seconds left. Michigan was in a position then where in theory they could wind 30 seconds off, but again they turned it over before it could happen. McDaniel got across mid-court and was trapped by two Commodores. Dug had a timeout and the possession arrow, but decided to hurl the ball towards Williams, which went out of bounds. Vanderbilt took it down the floor and scored on a Manjon layup, 65-64 with 20 seconds left.
At this point, the collapse was palpable. Michigan called timeout to get set up, but yet again they gacked under pressure. Hunter Dickinson tried to pass it to Williams, the ball deflected off his arms and Lawrence would quickly get a layup. 66-65 Vanderbilt, with 12 seconds left. Michigan called their final timeout, were rather discombobulated getting up floor, but McDaniel got a look in the lane on a driving attempt, which ricocheted off the mark. Dickinson tried to tip it in, also off the mark. The horn sounded, Vanderbilt had won, and Michigan had blown an eight point lead in the matter of 58 seconds to lose in regulation. You'd say it was unbelievable if you hadn't seen this sort of thing happen a half-dozen times over this season.
Joey's face here sums up the experience of watching this team [Wilcomes]
I'm not going to do a season wrap-up, because I did that in the Rutgers BTT recap. That was the end of the season for any goals that mattered; this is the official end. The narrative has not changed. Per Zach Shaw, Michigan lost seven games this season in which ESPN deemed them as having a >80% probability of winning at some point in the second half. They lost five such games where the win probability was >87%, with today being #5. We can say that not having Bufkin or Jett Howard, two capable ballhandlers, may have prevented this specific collapse, since it would have put the ball in the hands of players besides a true freshman (McDaniel) and a player who is not much of a ballhandler (Williams) and I don't disagree. The problem is, it's hard to make excuses for the fifth collapse of this magnitude. Each individual game can be explained away by one theory or another. In the broader picture, when it keeps happening, at some point it's just who you are. I don't think any Michigan fans were terribly surprised and that tells you all you need to know about the 2022-23 edition of this squad.
In terms of statistics, Dickinson led the way for Michigan with 21 points, while McDaniel was right there with 19. Had Michigan won this game, my intro was going to be about those two starters rising to the occasion to help pull the team minus two starters to victory. Instead, their efforts were for naught. The rest of the box score looks about what you'd expect for this team minus Bufkin and Howard. Joey Baker added 11 but was 3/10 from the field (0/3 from three), while the next highest scorer was Williams with 6 (2/6 from the field). Youssef Khayat, inserted into the starting lineup for Bufkin, made a three for his only points, while Reed added 5. Jace Howard and Will Tschetter scored a combined 0 points in 27 minutes of action.
Both teams shot 43% from the floor and and around a quarter from three (M = 25%, Vandy = 26%). Michigan's 15 TOs to Vanderbilt's 7 loomed large, especially late, as Vanderbilt owned the "points off TOs" bucket 18-11. Tyrin Lawrence led Vanderbilt in scoring with 24 (10/17 from the field). Manjon had 17 and Smith added 11, the latter's points exclusively contained to the 17-0 Vandy run in the fist half. No one else for the 'Dores had more than 6 points.
[Click the JUMP for the box score]
With that, this men's basketball season is complete. The offseason now begins, with decisions of immense consequence to the program looming for Bufkin, Dickinson, and Jett Howard. We also don't know which other players will stick with the program and who may be seeking to transfer out. Michigan will certainly be searching in the portal for replacements and/or players to strengthen the roster. It should be an interesting spring/summer ahead.
Lastly, I want to thank everyone reading my (and Seth's) recaps this season. I did not have the most fun writing these (recapping pain is not ideal) but it's always good to know they're at least being read. Thanks for following along and commenting with your takes and I'll be back recapping basketball in November. Until then, so long for bball recaps!
Howard needs to fix the roster in the off-season by getting more guards, get rid of TWill, find a real 4, and convince at least Hunter and Kobe to come back. Another thing he needs to do is find an assistant coach who specializes in defense and turns the D over to him. If he does that and the team still plays like this, then he needs to go.
Fixing the roster that Juwan constructed seems easier said than done unless he's going to give players on scholarship the boot. Plus, it appears that he wants Baker and Llewelyn back. Those are the two scholarships that were earmarked for Kante and Washington next season. Can't assume that anyone else wants to enter the portal.
Barnes doesn’t even play. He could transfer. Jett is most likely gone. There is two spots for transfers. Only need one more spot to open up and you could bring back Jaelin (ball handling), Baker (hopefully shooting) and get you an experienced and athletic four from the portal. Glenn didn’t even play, T Will could see the writing on the wall with the recruitment of a four man.
Just more of the same today. It's not random, and it's not just bad luck which eventually evens out. As Alex noted, it's who this team is, part of their identity. Hopefully, next season will be different.
Feeling apathetic about this one, and that’s maybe worse than losing.
I'm in the same boat. I am pretty detached from this team, and feeling that way while the NCAA Tournament is happening stinks.
Hopefully the program can win the offseason. The staff could possibly use a shakeup--though I think firing Howard would be wildly premature--but roster composition is the key to next year. I hate to put it this way, but this team has way too many non-contributors. You just can't have five or so nearly dead roster spots.
"Win the off-season." I like it. I agree 100%. That's the next challenge for this program. If we lose this off-season, we're f****d.
It’s almost like the end of the game was different from what came before, but I was assured this is just a statistical illusion. Likewise, I suppose Matt Painter is just unlucky and not a shit tourney coach.
“Mercifully over” - I don’t think it could be said any better. Yes, Beilein had a season with a similar record. But it is how the games were lost. I can’t recall any season that resembles this. Game after game, I would tell myself, they won’t melt down again. But they did, over and over and over and over……
Khayat can play. Needs to play. Watch how he passes. They're all crisp and accurate. Then watch the others ,they're sloppy and it's often a turnover. Khayat should have been in at the end, seems to have a sharp head about him. And it's not just TWill but Dickinson and Dug are so sloppy sometimes.
I think YoYo will start in Jett's spot next year. He's an obvious choice for unplayable freshman who growing pain sophomore years his way into leaving early for the NBA over the next 365 days.
This is not nice.
That would be classic Michigan. Dude rarely plays a minute, has a good Soph year and the NBA drafts him off of potential. I don’t even think he can do NIL so that won’t keep him around.
I fully expect Dug to grow 6 inches over the next 2 weeks and become a first-round PG as well given how the past couple years have gone.
Welp. Now that y’all have some time, root for the women tomorrow. They’re in the second round of The Tournament That Actually Matters, but they face a tough test in 29-2 LSU.
Thanks Alex for writing these up. It's been a rough season.
It was depressing to watch them lose late again and yet also crazy they were even in this game given who they put out there. I'm surprised Vandy waited until the last minute to press UM, as they were in trouble on that front from the jump.
Feels like Williams will be given a firm handshake and they'll see what they have with other guys. Mack never struck me as a pure center but as a C/PF combo he'd cover whatever minutes Williams would have soaked up.
Feels like next year they'll likely have better results in some close games but it may not matter because unless they retain some talent/get some transfers they'll have talent issues that may preclude them being much better. I'm interested to see what staff changes happen as well.
I'm ok with Williams staying, if he wants. We don't have to tell people, "you suck, you're not wanted." But ... yeah, I think he's pretty much forfeited his right to any significant playing time, and he's going to have to show an amount of commitment to improving and hustling heretofore never witnessed on the face of the earth (and certainly not ever seen from him) to, bit by bit, rebuild the trust of this fanbase and -- I hope to God -- his teammates.
I mean, he should only get in during blowouts, and even then he's got to play every single minute of playing time he gets like he did during those follow-up tip=ins against Tennessee last year. If he stops running with purpose for even a second, I would yank him immediately.
I guess I'm okay if Williams comes back but it will be at a diminished role and so I'd be surprised if he stuck around. Be happy if he comes back and is an energy off the bench.
March 18th, 2023 at 10:44 PM ^
Not me, unless he goes full Adrian Nunez. He's had plenty of opportunity and has done basically squat with it. He's had some blind squirrel moment shit, but he is not a D1 player.
Teams tend not to switch up their style of play for one game. I assume Vandy rarely presses unless it's late game like that, so they probably didn't think they could run a press like that for a longer stretch than they did.
This game was the season in a nutshell: finding a way to lose.
8 point lead, and...Hunter misses a layup. Nova scores three the other way. M turnover, compounded by a foul, giving 2 free points without the clock running. Turnover. Score. Turnover. Score. Now down by 1, still a chance to win it. The shot clanks off the rim, the tip does not go. M loses by 1. Finding a way to lose.
Username...sadly, does NOT check out.
I will just say, after following some games online and/or reading the aftermath on here, I am really glad I didn't renew my streaming TV service just to follow this year's basketball team. The basketball program either involved some pretty excruciating growing pains or went backward, depending on who you talk to. Did not seem like a fun season to watch or be a part of.
Michigan needs to avoid too much attrition and needs to add some transfers or next year will be worse.
I haven’t been able to watch this team. Too frustrating. Such a letdown after watching a great season of football. Hoping for some transfer portal success heading into next season.
Thud.
Alex, I thoroughly enjoyed your recaps this season, painful as they were. I do feel that you Mgoblog guys have to stop with all this Kenpom luck stuff. I was thankful that you included a sentiment that we are what we showed. All of our close losses were a result of guys not rising to the occasion. We have become a program that is weak mentally and folds frequently. Don’t make excuses about youth when TWill, a junior, is allowed to make so many turnovers it makes your head spin. I’m fearful that the program is regressing and trending towards the bottom of the league. I see us in a cycle of not very good college players turning professional, based not on play but potential. I wonder how a guy like Johns transfers when the roster has literally no 4’s. I would very much like to see a season autopsy done by a hoops type expert and thoroughly look at everything from roster management, substitutions, schemes, to development and everything else.
Give TWill his firm handshake yesterday
Even with a distinct size advantage, Michigan got outscored in the paint 34-22, lost the points off turnover differential, 18-11 and fast break point margin 9-2, and three point shot makes 6-3 while essentially equalling Vandy in shooting and scoring efficiency categories. The only real difference was a 6 point margin in free throw shooting for the Wolverines. That was the only reflection of their size difference, the only natural advantage in their play.
The team committed 15 turnovers to Vandy's 7.
Looking at this game objectively, Michigan played hard. It delivered a potential winning performance in the face of adversity: missing two major contributing scorers. In short, the team showed heart especially when it fell behind in the first half by 12 points during a 17 point Vandy run and came back to take a lead at half.
Today's game-ending collapse is only notable by how it occurred, not that it happened. Because every Michigan fan was certainly worried when the game reached the 2 minute mark regardless of score. Every conceivable call that could hurt the Wolverines, added to the losing scenario, a recheck of a three-point field goal reduced to a two point basket, a and-one on a foul call on a Vandy driver even before he was in shooting motion.
These were just elements in the losing plot of this game, a new chapter in a series of excruciating game-ending bender losses in a season where winning was never an acquired taste or expectation based on past experience. It wasn't that the team didn't physically develop, it just didn't ever seem to learn how or what it takes to win.
Most of the time advanced analytics folks will claim there’s no such thing in statistics as “clutch play.”
This team disproves that claim.
Legit one of the toughest seasons ever to watch. Team was close to good, but just lost so many close games in excruciating fashion.
Seems like Jett and Kobe are gone. Anyone know on Dickinson? Have a feeling he’s leaving too.
Hunter will return.
Jett and Kobe should return if someone advises them that knows what’s actually good for them.
Terrance Williams is absolutely terrible. How is this guy a starter at Michigan? He brings nothing to the table. I bid thee adieu, Felicia.
Its golf season. Lets get 50-60 rounds in, and then it’s M Football season. Go Blue.
Juwan is not going to be fired so I think it's pointless to keep calling for that unless you're just venting ( I understand that fans need to vent).
I do think that some have given him too much of a pass for the declining performance of the team over the last 2 years and what seems like unfounded optimism that next year will be better, not the same or worse. I also don't get the belief that changing assistants will make a big difference. This isn't a Beilein situation where the coach had a reputation as an offensive genius and self-recognized that he needed to bring in someone to focus on defense. What would the equivalent be for Juwan- does he need an "OC" or a "DC". We've had some major issues on both sides. And if that is true, why does the HC need 2 or more new assistants to make him a better coach? Besides other than with Beilein I don't know of any other teams that have this assistant as an OC or DC model- does anyone else know of any?
Besides, my major objection with Juwan is in what is professed to be his strength: recruiting. Building a team isn't just collecting as many 5 and then 4 stars as you can. You have to think about what style of team you want and recruit players to fit that style while managing your roster with guys that can play well together and you need role players who are satisfied with being role players and your stars need to be willing to sacrifice, at times, showcasing their strengths to do some of the other things that help their team win. Tough assignment? For sure, but I'd give up very 5 star who didn't fit that mold for 4 and yes, 3 stars that will buy in.
My guess is that he will leave on his own accord after another season or two of mid tier or worse finishes and we will begin the rebuilding process then.
This phrase has been overused but I'll say it anyway, I really hope I'm wrong. I watched every minute of every game this year just like every other year and I have no desire for failure to "prove" some assessment that I made on a message board. I treasure every win, and agonize with every loss.
agree that he's going to leave on his own...especially if next year is a disaster...both of the his kids will be gone...
Tough year watching wins slip away.
Incoming class will likely not make a great impact.
Hitting the transfer lottery is a tough road, and is Howard's only option, once the NBA questions get answered.
Amazing how quickly the roster situation has gotten so bleak.
Losing Hunter, Kobe, and Jett sets the program back a few recruiting cycles.
Need at least 2 of them to return, and I think that may just happen.
Still hard to figure Howard's coaching system, as he is not keeping guys long enough to really establish his identity.
Pisser is how close this team was to at least 2nd seed BIG, Shannon ruling changed alot.
Time to detox from too many holy shit endings, here's to better next year.
Michigan players should watch the effort that Arkansas players put forth in coming from 12 down in 2nd half to beat Kansas...... Mich vs Vandy was a JV / AAU game compared to that game.
I will remember this team for their incredible consistency. Dickinson’s missed bunny was the moment I knew they wouldn’t break tendency. Remarkable.
And anyone saying Juwan needs to go should take a cold shower and chill the f out. Go Blue.
Agreed that Juwan won’t be fired, so it’s silly to call for it now. It’s also wrong, as has been argued here, that he’s anywhere close to beileien so far. He’s finished 8th in 3 of four seasons, so the program has seen a bit of a decline. It’s also clear to people who have played/coached that end of games do play out differently.
Not sure if that’s on Juwan other than roster construction, but they really struggled late in games and even in sets.
I hope next year is better. Without Kobe, it’s hard to see how that happens. If it’s another mediocre year, then you have to start thinking about what you expect from your program. If being Iowa level is fine, you’re good. If Michigan expects more then the following year would be the show me year
Tough to watch the team lose tight games all season, but I enjoyed reading Alex’s recaps. He has a distinct voice, and reflects what I am thinking and feeling remarkably well. Thanks Alex for a great writing season.
Thanks for all the content Alex, appreciate all the work!
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