The 2022-23 Michigan Men's Basketball season is mercifully over after today's crushing loss to Vanderbilt in the second round of the NIT. if there's one thing you can say about this team, it's that they died as they lived, collapsing late in games and rescuing defeat from the jaws of victory. Despite playing without both Kobe Bufkin and Jett Howard, the Wolverines put together a solid game, leaning on the heroics of Hunter Dickinson and Dug McDaniel to get them to an ESPN calculated win probability of 96.7% with 1:30 to go. And then? Collapse. Again. Michigan turned it over on three straight possessions, allowed Vanderbilt to score each time off turnovers, and the last chance basket to win at the buzzer didn't go down. 66-65, a 9-0 run by the Commodores in the final 58 seconds to close. 

The first half had a few distinct chapters, the extended Vanderbilt run to take a lopsided lead, the extended Michigan run to close the gap, and then the back-and-forth last few minutes leading to halftime. Michigan began with a small 5-0 lead, which was immediately followed by a 17-0(!) run for the Commodores, who threatened to blow the Wolverines right out of the building. Michigan was held scoreless for nearly six minutes, their tires spinning in the mud but not gaining any traction, while the hot shooting of Vandy forward Colin Smith built the home team's lead up. Smith made three three-pointers and a layup for 11 of Vanderbilt's 17 points during this period of time. 

Michigan snapped the drought with a tip-in shot by Terrance Williams II and from there, it was the Dug McDaniel show, as the diminutive PG willed Michigan back into the game. He converted a three point play at the FT line and then started pulling up like Steph Curry, nailing successive triples and long twos. His three with 9:21 to go in the first half tied it at 20 and when Williams made a pair of free throws a few minutes later, the Maize & Blue had the lead back. For the final five minutes of the opening half, it was a competitive game, each team answering the other and the lead for both sides never more than one score. Ezra Manjon's jumper put Vanderbilt ahead 29-28, but Dickinson's hookshot propelled Michigan to a 30-29 lead going into halftime. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

At the break, McDaniel was the hero for the Wolverines, 13 points to lead Michigan (no one else had more than six). In the second half, the hero would be Hunter Dickinson, who began to exploit his size advantage inside to dominate in the paint. The teams stayed close through the first six or so minutes of the second half, but Dickinson began to control the game and gave Michigan padding. He scored eight straight points for Michigan to put them up 49-42 and he began the half a scorching 6/6 on FGs. Neither team was shooting well from the perimeter and so Michigan's presence of a dominant post player was what was giving them a chance to build up a sizable lead. At the halfway mark, Michigan led 54-47. 

The Michigan edge stayed pretty consistent as the final quarter of the game rolled along, Michigan playing a two big lineup and Tarris Reed Jr. starting to join in the scoring from the free throw line. Joey Baker also began to heat up, the first non-McDaniel perimeter presence for Michigan to come on-line. Baker's long two (originally called a three) left the score at 61-54 with four minutes to go. Vanderbilt answered with a three by Trey Thomas via great ball movement and the Commodores came back down the floor a little later with a chance to cut it to within one, but Thomas' 3PTA was off the mark. Michigan rebounded it down and McDaniel would slice into the lane, connecting on a pretty tear-drop shot off the backboard and in. 63-57 with 2:31 to go. 

The next minute was the period where it seemed as if Juwan Howard's crew was putting the game away. McDaniel drew a charge on Jordan Wright during Vanderbilt's ensuing offensive possession and that was followed by Joey Baker coming off a screen to catch-and-shoot a long two from the free throw line... swish. 65-57 with 1:45 to go. To improve the conditions even more, Wright missed another three after Vanderbilt went back up the court, which was rebounded down by Baker with 1:32 left. This was the point when the game was seemingly over, the 96.7% win probability moment I referenced in the opener. 

[Campredon]

Vanderbilt opted to play defense and let Michigan run roughly 1/3 of the remaining time in regulation off the clock on the ensuing Wolverine offensive possession. Michigan entered the post but Dickinson missed a layup in tight, a miss that would turn out to be fateful. Quentin Millora-Brown snatched the rebound, passed to Tyrin Lawrence, who drove the lane on the Wolverines, was fouled, but made the basket and was granted what appeared to be NBA continuation (Juwan Howard was not happy). Lawrence made the free throw to complete the three point play, leaving the score at 65-60. 

Jerry Stackhouse called timeout to dial up a full-court press defense, looking to force turnovers, and it would work wonders in a way few could imagine. The first time against it, Terrance Williams II made it across the center line before coughing the rock up. After turning it over, he fouled Manjon and with Vanderbilt in the bonus, the Commodores got two quick free throws (Manjon went 2/2). 65-62 with 49 seconds left. Michigan was in a position then where in theory they could wind 30 seconds off, but again they turned it over before it could happen. McDaniel got across mid-court and was trapped by two Commodores. Dug had a timeout and the possession arrow, but decided to hurl the ball towards Williams, which went out of bounds. Vanderbilt took it down the floor and scored on a Manjon layup, 65-64 with 20 seconds left. 

At this point, the collapse was palpable. Michigan called timeout to get set up, but yet again they gacked under pressure. Hunter Dickinson tried to pass it to Williams, the ball deflected off his arms and Lawrence would quickly get a layup. 66-65 Vanderbilt, with 12 seconds left. Michigan called their final timeout, were rather discombobulated getting up floor, but McDaniel got a look in the lane on a driving attempt, which ricocheted off the mark. Dickinson tried to tip it in, also off the mark. The horn sounded, Vanderbilt had won, and Michigan had blown an eight point lead in the matter of 58 seconds to lose in regulation. You'd say it was unbelievable if you hadn't seen this sort of thing happen a half-dozen times over this season. 

Joey's face here sums up the experience of watching this team [Wilcomes]

I'm not going to do a season wrap-up, because I did that in the Rutgers BTT recap. That was the end of the season for any goals that mattered; this is the official end. The narrative has not changed. Per Zach Shaw, Michigan lost seven games this season in which ESPN deemed them as having a >80% probability of winning at some point in the second half. They lost five such games where the win probability was >87%, with today being #5. We can say that not having Bufkin or Jett Howard, two capable ballhandlers, may have prevented this specific collapse, since it would have put the ball in the hands of players besides a true freshman (McDaniel) and a player who is not much of a ballhandler (Williams) and I don't disagree. The problem is, it's hard to make excuses for the fifth collapse of this magnitude. Each individual game can be explained away by one theory or another. In the broader picture, when it keeps happening, at some point it's just who you are. I don't think any Michigan fans were terribly surprised and that tells you all you need to know about the 2022-23 edition of this squad.

In terms of statistics, Dickinson led the way for Michigan with 21 points, while McDaniel was right there with 19. Had Michigan won this game, my intro was going to be about those two starters rising to the occasion to help pull the team minus two starters to victory. Instead, their efforts were for naught. The rest of the box score looks about what you'd expect for this team minus Bufkin and Howard. Joey Baker added 11 but was 3/10 from the field (0/3 from three), while the next highest scorer was Williams with 6 (2/6 from the field). Youssef Khayat, inserted into the starting lineup for Bufkin, made a three for his only points, while Reed added 5. Jace Howard and Will Tschetter scored a combined 0 points in 27 minutes of action. 

Both teams shot 43% from the floor and and around a quarter from three (M = 25%, Vandy = 26%). Michigan's 15 TOs to Vanderbilt's 7 loomed large, especially late, as Vanderbilt owned the "points off TOs" bucket 18-11. Tyrin Lawrence led Vanderbilt in scoring with 24 (10/17 from the field). Manjon had 17 and Smith added 11, the latter's points exclusively contained to the 17-0 Vandy run in the fist half. No one else for the 'Dores had more than 6 points. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

With that, this men's basketball season is complete. The offseason now begins, with decisions of immense consequence to the program looming for Bufkin, Dickinson, and Jett Howard. We also don't know which other players will stick with the program and who may be seeking to transfer out. Michigan will certainly be searching in the portal for replacements and/or players to strengthen the roster. It should be an interesting spring/summer ahead.

Lastly, I want to thank everyone reading my (and Seth's) recaps this season. I did not have the most fun writing these (recapping pain is not ideal) but it's always good to know they're at least being read. Thanks for following along and commenting with your takes and I'll be back recapping basketball in November. Until then, so long for bball recaps!