Hey Kris, it's the future. Wondering if now's a good time? [Patrick Barron]

Upon Further Review 2021: Defense vs. Nebraska Comment Count

Seth October 15th, 2021 at 3:59 PM

Previously: Offense.

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Formation Notes: Way too many goofy things Nebraska did to show them all. Demi means the WRs are not wide (normal) and not tight.

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I pulled “Fritz” out of the 2011 Offense vs Minnesota for this formation that’s reminiscent of 1890s football:

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Imagine the QB under center and you get why the backs were named quarter, half, and full. I also started noting some of their motions. Also in History of Football Formations 101, Michigan used an Eagle with a standup nose (Morris), which was the formation that originally gave rise to the 4-3 defense.

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I’m sure there’s a more fascinating name for this formation that I called Zero:

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Nebraska also made heavy use of Gun Bunch Z Cross OMFG the OT is in the Backfield Again!

Substitution Notes: Ojabo got the start and starter’s minutes at OLB. Mostly nickel personnel the whole way: Hinton/Smith were 1st team, Jenkins came on when they needed a 5th lineman, and Speight/Jeter were the team when the starters needed a breather. NHG and Colson split time and Barrett got a couple of drives as an HSP version of the WLB. Corner was the usual rotation, with the CBs coming off for goal line.

[After THE JUMP: Sixty minutes of linebacker hell]

Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O18 1st 10 Gun Twins Tight 4-2-5 4-3 Over 2 Play-Action 4 Screen Hill 43 3.35
Clever girl. Lots of action and the RB leaks out. Smith(-1) is probably supposed to tag but Hill(-3, cov-1) is the main culprit as he's got eyes only for the Z flare then backs out not knowing where the RB is. Hard to know where everyone else went but NHG(+1) figured it out first and chased it down. RPS-2.
M39 1st 10 Pistol Wk Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 RPO   IZ/X Flat Hinton 4 -0.09
Hinton(+0.5) and Smith(+0.5) stand up their OL and both have a shoulder in the gap but neither get low enough to stop the forward fall.
M35 2nd 6 Pistol Wk Semi 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Run   Arc T Give Hill 0 -0.87
Interesting take on Arc where the frontside T flares out as the lead and a WR hooks inside to pull the CB in. Ojabo(+0.5) sets up wide to force a give and Hill(+2) screams in to pop the F insert which ruins the gap. Smith(+1) and Hinton(+1) have their G and C bent into the backfield, and Hutch(+1) beat his edge clean inside and cleans up. Don't want to RPS this because these were individual wins but Really cool play you guys just annihilated.
M35 3rd 6 Pistol Str Tight Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Run   Arc 3O Give Hinton 0 -1.04
It's Arc with a WR pitch option and Ojabo(+0.5) again sets up wide when the offense really wants to hit this outside. That's smart because Hinton(+3) and Hutch(+1) discarded their blockers like facts that Urban Meyer finds inconvenient, Hinton so extravagantly that he gets to eat RB in the backfield. Hot Damn!
M35 4th 6 Gun Trips Bunch 4-2-5 Nk Wide 0 1 Pass 4 Rub Fade Green 24 2.61
Hutch(+2) is around the RT and about to super sack and Hinton(+1, PR+3) is coming right up the gut so defend this and it's over. Green(-3, cov-3) gets hung up on the rub receiver and doesn't switch when that guy bumps Hill. Martinez arms it to that guy so high that Hawkins(-1) if he had any speed could get there and try to affect the catch but he just wraps up and hits so here's a tackling+1.
M11 1st 10 Gun Twins 2TE Unbal 5-2-4 5-3 Split 0 Run   Arc Give Ross 2 -0.11
Put everyone on one side and Arc the backside, NHG flares out to force the give as Hutch(+1) slams the crosser (RPS+1). Jeter(+0.5) got moved back by a double and Speight(-0.5) gave ground but the dbl soak keeps Ross(+1) clean enough he can shoot up as soon as the RB gets to the LOS to keep it to what Speight gave.
M9 2nd 8 Gun Twins 2TE Unbal 4-2-5 4-4 Over 1 Run   Arc Keeper Hutchinson 6 0.07
Hutch(-1) is trying to shuffle, which results in a keep and he gets edged by Martinez. Ross(-1) is slow to react to the keep and lets the TE get outside of him too.
M3 3rd 2 Gun F Motion 4-2-5 Goal Line NA Run   Power Read Give Jenkins 0 -0.31
Harrell(+1) is the read guy and sets up where he can pop the RB into Martinez's path a bit. Didn't even need to because Jenkins(+2) shucked the LT and Ross(+1) dodged a TE to stuff for a loss.
M3 4th 2 Gun 2TE Unbal Z In 6-3-2 5-3 Split NA Run   QB Lead Hawkins -1 -4.17
M has coached for this. Morris(+2) is ready for the Z crack and rips by him to string this out long enough for Hawkins(+2) to take on the lead blocker, discard, and force OOB for a loss.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 0-0. 8 min 1st Q. Hints that big plays are Nebraska's only hope because M is beating the blocks.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O35 1st 10 Pistol Fritz 4-2-5 4-3 Even 2 Run   Split 3-O Colson 3 -0.41
Ojabo(+0.5) induced a give and was able to get a pop on the F crosser trying to crack him. Smith(-0.5) moved back by a double but Ross(+0.5) and Colson(+0.5) can get around that easily enough and stop it for a minimal gain.
O38 2nd 7 Gun Wk T off 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Pass 5 Corner Gray Inc(+10) 2.11
Ross(+1) shoots by the RB, Smith(+0.5) beat a double and Hutch(+1, PR+2) is around at RT that lined up 2 yards in the backfield (refs-1 M was pointing at this pre-snap!) so this has to get lofted. Gray(-3, cov-1) is unnecessarily all over this guy. He gets grabbed back but c'mon dude. He has help from two safeties.
M46 1st 10 Gun Wk Y Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 1 Run   Turnaround Option Lead Colson 6(-15) -2.51
Neat trick where the QB faces away then spins and comes back freezing Hill and Ross(-1) backside (RPS+1). Hutch(+0.5) stayed home and forced a pitch from his outside shoulder but Colson(-0.5) can't set an edge for him and the pitchman scoots by. He gets extra because an OL released and chopped Ross from the side, which is a no-no, and might have gotten them 4(?) more yards. Such a Scott Frost team.
O39 1st 19 Gun 2RB 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Run   Arc T Give Colson 4 -0.13
Hutch(+0.5) induces a give. Both Smith(+0.5) and Hinton(+0.5) fight back to this gap and it's not going far as Ross(+0.5) arrives. Colson(-0.5) was the free hitter but there was a lot of stuff going on outside so I don't mind they did it without him.
O43 2nd 15 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Pass 4.5 Bubble Screen Hutchinson 7 0.42
Hutch(+3) runs down the bubble himself because Green(-2) is staring inside instead of replacing when Hill shoots up. Huskers want a facemask that didn't happen.
50 3rd 8 Gun Str 4-2-5 Racecar 2 Pass 4 Throwaway Gray Inc -1.24
Tempo(20) gets the sleepy broadcast so we miss the start of this play. Hutch(+1, PR+1) has the LT on skates and gets an arm on Martinez who wiggles out and nobody else has gotten close so now it’s a rollout situation. Everyone's still well covered (Cov+3) and it's thrown away over the guy Gray(+1) is on. Replay shows us Colson(+1) and Hill(+1) never lost their guys for that whole time.
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 4 min 1st Q. Nebraska self-face punch counter at 1.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O6 1st 10 Pistol Fritz 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Run   Split 3-O Ross 3 -0.12
Hinton(+1) holds up a double so the wrong guy has to release on Ross and has no angle. Smith(-0.5) couldn't do the same but Hill(+0.5) fought his way back. Ross(+1) gets in and they fall forward for a yard.
O9 2nd 7 Gun Wk Y Flex 4-2-5 Nk Under 1 Run   ZR Power Ojabo 1 -0.19
Ojabo(+2) wrecks this by knifing in to take out the puller. NHG(+1) shot past the LT to stick and Ross(+0.5) does the same as Smith(+0.5) discards the LG. Everyone meets at the RB a yard in the backfield and stuffs. Refs-1 missed a false start on the RT.
O10 3rd 6 Gun Bunch 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Pass 4 Mesh Ross 9 0.77
Ross(-2, cov-1, tackling-1) and NHG are in the same spot when Ross should be shooting down on the crosser. He's so late Dax comes off the RB to tackle first. Sigh. Refs-1 miss the LT WAAAAAY off the line of scrimmage--like he's in line with the Z receiver. Someone must say something bc they call it next play. Smith(+1) pushed the C back and his hand is a fraction of an inch from batting this.
O19 1st 10 Gun Wk Y Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Run   Midline Veer Hawkins 2 -0.26
Ojabo(+1) has a double on the edge and shoves it into the backfield as they hold him back like a rabid friend who wants a fight. NHG(-0.5) shoots into this which does bend the RB back but also turns a 2v1 stalemate into a 2v2 draw. Hawkins(+1) shot past a TE and Ross(+1, tackling+1) slipped a releasing G and they meet after 2 yards.
O21 2nd 8 Gun Wk 5-2-4 Eagle Over 1 Pass 5 Dumpoff Ross 12(-5) -0.45
Hutch(+1) and Ojabo(+1) applying pressure around Ts who lined up way in the backfield, dumped to the RB and Ross(-2, tackling-2) misses the tackle. Comes back for illegal formation.
O16 2nd 13 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 Pass 4 TE Seam Hill INT -3.87
Hill(+4, Cov+3) carries this seam all the way, breaks it up, tips it to himself, and takes it. Upshaw(+1, PR+1) beat the LT.
Drive Notes: Interception. 0-0. 12 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun 2RB Twins Unbal 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Run   Split 3-O Colson 3 -0.30
Hutch(-0.5) goes right for the QB, Hinton(+1) tosses a T past him, but the DL flare has made a hole in the middle (RPS-2) that Colson(+1) dodges an OL to fill. Could have gotten ugly if he didn't make that play.
O28 2nd 7 Pistol F Tight Orbit 4-2-5 4-3 Even 1 Run   Iso Option Hinton 4 -0.09
Hutch(+2) dodges a T and the guy commits a flagrant hold (refs-2) around the waist from behind to prevent this from dying in the backfield. Hill(-1, tackling-1) shot into the backfield but missed. Hinton(+2) soaks up the lead blocker and then makes the tackle himself before the free hitter, Ross, can activate.
O32 3rd 3 Gun Wk Z motion 5-2-4 5-2 Under 1 Play-Action 4.5 PA Dbl Screen Ojabo Inc -0.53
RPS+3 as Neb calls a double screen and both sides are covered in M2M, with Turner(+1) flying across with the Z to cover the flare and Ojabo(+1) all over the RB leak.
Drive Notes: Punt. 3-0. 8 min 2nd Q. The rare bad playcall by Scott Frost. When Neb gets the ball back there's 3:19 left and 35 real minutes have elapsed.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Str Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Pass 4 Strip Bat Ojabo Inc -0.70
Upshaw(+1) wins around the RT and Ojabo(+1) beats the LT and an RB chip so Martinez has to step up as Smith(+2, PR+3) discards the LG and jumps on Martinez as he's throwing. Ball was traveling forward (and bopped a lineman in the helmet). Next time get his wrist Mazi.
O25 2nd 10 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Even 1 Pass 5 Back Shoulder Fade Turner Inc(+15) 2.02
Bring Hill and it's picked up (also T is illegal again) but Smith(+1, PR+1) is putting the G into Martinez's feet. Turner(-2, cov-2) is interfering all the way with Martin who (addressing the game thread) is allowed to put his hand over the CB's eyes I think.
O40 1st 10 Gun Trips 4-2-5 Nk Even 1 Pass 4 Comeback Hill 11 0.99
OMFG. Hutch(+3) is around the RT and when he gets to the QB the guy grabs him inside his helmet (cheek to ear) and then yanks on the mouth guard. Refs-3 unfuckingbelievable. Martinez can now escape and roll to find a guy coming free under Hill(-1, cov-1).
M49 1st 10 ??? 4-2-5 Nk ??? 2 Pass 5 Deep Out Gray Inc -1.10
Come back to this play late, and Ojabo(+2) has already turned the corner on the RT when doubled with the RB whom he GERTOFFME shoved away. Hutch(+0.5, PR+2) is also closing in having owned the LT. Martinez throws it OOB towards Oliver whom Gray (+1, cov+1) has well-covered.
M49 2nd 10 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Pass 5.5 Fly Gray Inc -1.04
They have the TE chip Ojabo but Jeter(-2, PR-2) falls down which is why a six-man pressure doesn't get much. Hutch(+1) has still abused the LT though so Martinez isn't going to try his luck and throws down the sideline at Gray(+2, Prot+2) who's got Martin so blanketed we're mad he doesn't try to intercept it.
M49 3rd 10 Gun Trips 4-2-5 Nk Wide AA 2 Sack 4 Sack Ojabo -2 -1.10
Hutch(+1) immediately around the new LT forces Martinez to step up and Ojabo(+2, PR+3) is ready to come in off the RT and get a two-handed strip attempt. Martinez hangs on but goes down.
Drive Notes: Punt. 6-0. 2 min 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Trips 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Run   Dive Hutchinson 4 -0.92
This is a get-to-half run at Ross but Hutch(+1) two-gaps the LT and gets there first.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Wk Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Wide 2 Play-Action 4 PA TE Seam Ross Inc -0.70
Colson(-1) is worried about the flare and doesn't chip the TE's release, and Ross(-1, cov-2) is more concerned with the RB leaking out. Lucky for them it's batted by Hinton(+2). Hutch(+1, PR+1) provided pressure vs a double.
O25 2nd 10 Gun Empty 4-2-5 Nk Wide 2 Pass 4 Hitch Colson 10 1.54
Colson(-2, cov-2) has the flat in Cov2 but spends way too long covering the #2 receiver's release and can't get to the #1 until it's already a 1st down. RPS-1 they dropped Ojabo to the hole so that probably influenced Colson's responsibility.
O35 1st 10 Gun Trips 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 RPO   Dive/Flare Option Colson 3 -0.41
The LT is now lining up behind two "eligible" receivers on the LoS. Hutch(+0.5) and Smith(+0.5) pinch the gap shut and Colson(+1) slips a releasing G to stick.
O38 2nd 7 Pistol FB Semi 5-1-5 5-1 Odd 1 Play-Action 5 Double Pass Sack Hill -4 -1.29
Hill(+1, cov+1) is in man on the slot and doesn't even know Martinez threw it to the RB to double pass. That guy decides against the throw and now Gray(+1, tackling+1), Ross, Moten, and Hinton are all converging on him. RPS+3.
O34 3rd 11 Gun Y-Flex 5-1-5 5-1 A 2 Pass 4 Scramble Morris 20 3.40
RT is now 3 yards in the backfield and rips Ojabo(-1) down by the shoulder but there was room to step up underneath this if that doesn't happen. That's enough room to spook Martinez but Morris(-2) has gotten way out of his lane by trying to swim outside. Colson has to respect the RB so it gets a chunk. Hate knocking Ojabo on this because the RT's illegal set gives him such an advantage, but Ojabo can't give him those yards either.
M46 1st 10 Gun Quads Illegal 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Play-Action n/a PA TE Seam Moten 46 3.49
I'm not minusing anybody but the refs-4. Nebraska has an illegal formation and any hope it was an accident is gone because the slot who would have been covered goes downfield. You could blame Moten for letting an F release but no coverage accounts for 5 guys on the same side of the center.
Drive Notes: Illegal Touchdown. 13-7. 12 min 3rd Q. Ref show.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O10 1st 10 Pistol Twins 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Play-Action n/a PA Flat Ross 14 0.65
Late rotation (RPS-1) and Ross(-2,cov-2) comes down on the PA and is slow to get out on a slot but why is he on a slot? Hill(-1, tackling-1) gets there after the 1st down, bounces off, and it's a few extra.
O24 1st 10 Pistol Fritz 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Run   Split 3-O Ross 8 0.89
Now they get Ross(-2) again by making him hesitant. He gets sealed. Green(+1, tackling+1) is a safety as Dax blized and comes down to keep it short of the sticks. It'll matter.
O32 2nd 2 Pistol Twins Tight Z-motion 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Run   Split Lead Jenkins 1 -0.91
Bad snap screws up the timing of the exchange but Neb's real problem is Jenkins(+3), who threw the LT aside. RB tries to go backside but Hutch(+1) has wrecked the RT and is now wearing him as a cape.
O33 3rd 1 Gun 2TE 6-2-3 Goal Line 0 Run   Power Jenkins 0 -0.83
Jenkins(+2) shoves the TE by him and sticks inside the puller, whom Colson(+1) popped. Ross(+1) shoots in to add his physics but by now Jenkins is roping the RB down.
Drive Notes: Punt. 13-7. 8 min 3rd Q. BRB going to invest in #94 jerseys.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Str Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 Pass 5 RB Flat Gray 4 -0.11
M brings Ross outside (PR-1) but the pocket stays clean for two beats with Hutch doubled. RB falls down on the catch else there might have been a play in space vs Gray(cov-push).
O29 2nd 6 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Wide 2 Pass 5 Scramble Hawkins 7 1.04
RPS-1 as they bring Dax off the edge with Hutch and both get too far upfield so Martinez can run. NHG(+0.5) then Ross(+1) string this out to Hawkins(-2) who's got a WR he already scooted past and just needs to hold or shoot up to get a TFL. He hesitates, and the WR bumps Hawkins with his waist, giving Martinez the edge for the first.
O36 1st 10 Pistol Fritz 4-2-5 4-3 Over 2 Run   Midline 3-O Pitch NHG 16 1.46
Jeter(-1) is the guy read and he's got eyes for the RB when M's plan is take away the QB. Ojabo is the next man optioned and shuffles so they pitch. Gray(-0.5) takes out the TE lead block but this is at the sideline and you want him to pay that off with a shot at the ballcarrier. NHG(-1) is getting a play-long stalk block from the RT and ends up pancaked (okay yes he's being held do you want me to refs-2 every damn play?). Ross(-0.5) could have reacted faster but I think that goes back to Jeter is supposed to make this a dive.
M48 1st 10 Gun Quads Unbal 4-2-5 4-3 Over 1 Run   F Insert 3-0 Ross 7 0.56
RPS-1 as they hit the empty gap with Moten blitzing the same edge that Hutch(+1) has and Gray at deep safety over this. Aidan fights back inside to tackle after a fair gain that goes where Jeter(-1) got moved out. Ross got hit by the TE and locked inside the same gap Jeter ends up in but I think that's a Jeter problem.
M41 2nd 3 Gun 2TE Motion Z 5-2-4 5-2 Under 1 Play-Action n/a PA Wheel Ross 41 3.08
Should have called a TO because there's lots of confusion as M lines up. Blackledge blames NHG, but this is 100% on Ross(-3, cov-3), who has eyes on the RB but then stops when he sees Martinez rolling the other way. He's dead as the RB releases on the wheel and doesn't have to break stride as Martinez lays one in perfectly. McGregor(+1) and Harrell(+1) are coming in with the former laying a huge lick. RPS-1 as a tip of the cap for a great playcall. All-22 Replay.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 19-14. 1 min 3rd Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
M13 1st 10 Gun Trips Bunch Tight 4-2-5 4-3 Under 1 Play-Action 6 PA Flare Gray 13 2.49
Wheels still spinning from the TD and INT and have the perfect play ready. Zipper motion with the slot and Gray(-2, cov-4) loses sight of him and makes it all the way across the formation. Normally this would be Dax's but he's blitzing inside and Hutchinson is on the edge. He does his best but he's a DE. RPS-2 as well...We need to blame Gray for the bust but he was going to have a tough time getting back on that if he saw it. If he did take that away they had a bust forming as Moten(-1) came down and rubbed Green off his guy.
M3 2PC Goal Gun Trips Bunch Tight 5-2-4 Goal Line NA RPO 5 Rollout Hutchinson 3 1.05
RPS-2 as they catch M blitzing the backside with Colson (IE the best guy to run this down) and in man coverage so there's nobody to help once Hutch(-1) is edged by Martinez. Want Ross(-0.5) to react sooner I guess.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2pt Good). 19-22. <1 min 3rd Q. This game changed quickly.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Wk Y Flex Z Motion 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Run   Turnaround Option Lead Gray -1 -0.80
Ready for it this time. Hutch(+0.5) shuffles out but forces an early pitch when the guy is 9 yards deep. He fumbles but back to himself and hangs on through Gray(+1) leveling him. NHG(+1) stayed outside a TE and kept him inside so the lead blocker wasn't going to get to Gray
O24 2nd 11 Gun Fritz 4-2-5 4-3 Even 2 Play-Action 4 Some Bullshit Green 30 3.34
Hutch(+2, PR+3) ripped through the LT and is coming in to sack with Ojabo(+1) coming around deep, so the LT sticks his leg out and trips him. Refs-3 like how are you not watching Hutchinson on a pass rush? A G comes back to nail Ojabo. Smith(-1) got run out of his lane. Hill(+1) comes up to contain and Martinez has to chuck at a covered guy. Cov+3 has been good all along and Green(-1) is coming in to INT but instead it goes through his hands and bounces to Oliver. Moten(-1) is behind this and runs OOB so it gets extra. Seth goes for a walk.
M46 1st 10 Gun 2RB Y Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Play-Action n/a PA Bubble Hill -2 -1.49
Back from my walk. They try to edge Dax Hill(+3), who reads, gets around a diving TE supposed to block him, and sticks 5 yards deep. Ross(+0.5) arrived to guest star.
M48 2nd 12 Pistol Wk 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Run   Zone Stretch Jeter 24 2.35
Dax shows blitz and they check to this. RPS-1 as Michigan has Hutch checking a rollout but Speight(+1) stands up to a double, and Jeter(-2) .. does not, getting comboed through. Ross(-1) bounces off the G this delivered to him. They almost squeeze it shut with Hutch returning from his check, but the RB gets through the tiny gap and then gets past Hawkins(-1, tackling-1) for a few extra. Blackledge as usual congratulates the wrong guys.
M24 1st 10 Gun Wk TE Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Play-Action   PA TE Seam Ross 13 0.16
I hate that it's him but Ross(-1, cov-1) caught peeking at the PA again and they can Buttzone it under Moten for another 1st down.
M11 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Run   Pin & Pull Smith 4 -0.02
Homage call but attacks the split gap (RPS-1). Morris(+1) makes it uncomfortable by popping the G, Hinton(+1) bends back the RG to block a tight puller, and Smith(+2) comes through a block to stuff. Dangerous if he hadn't bc a TE got across the face of Ross(-1) and Hill(-0.5) is stuck on a crack block that got to him.
M7 2nd 6 Gun Quads Unbal 5-2-4 Zero 0 Run   F Insert 3-0 Smith 2 -0.17
Smith(+2) stands up his block and this comes right to him. Hinton(+1) kept the gap small and then put his butt in the way of YAC.
M5 3rd 4 Gun Trips Bunch Tight 5-3-3 Not Set NA RPO   Belly/TE Screen Ross 5 2.66
Nebraska initiates a substitution at 10 seconds, which should be a Delay of Game, but refs-2 leaves well before Michigan has a chance to get set. 80% of this ref show is the backjudge FYI. Ross(-1) doesn't replace after the line slants and picking Hill(-1) as the unnecessary 4th man on the TE screen since the other three pointed at a guy each. Hutch(-1) goes for the RB when Martinez is the threat.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 26-29. 7 min 4th Q. Calling this the All Bullshit drive is unfair to the stretch play and the Buttzone play but this is the Mostly Bullshit Drive.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Pass 4 Slants Gray 7 0.60
They run double slants against Cov2 and Gray(-0.5, cov-push) is a bit soft
O32 2nd 3 Pistol Quands Unbal 4-2-5 Nk Wide 2 Run   Split Zone Ross 2 -0.63
One of them important plays you don't realize until the next one. Smith(+1) arms off the C, NHG(+1) rushes in to stick the RT trying to get down to Ross and also takes on the kicker, Hinton(+0.5) slants through and cuts off a lane frontside, and Ross(+1) sticks to set up 3rd and 1.
O34 3rd 1 Gun Str 4-2-5 Zero 2 Run   QB Split Zone Hawkins 3(-19) -5.31
Hutch(+1) throws the LT aside and falls or else he's got a super stop. Martinez passes the first down marker and keeps grinding through the DTs as Hawkins(+4) strips the ball out, finds it, and runs. No, I'm not gonna minus Green for not putting a block on the TE who saves a TD.
Drive Notes: Fumble. 29-29. 1:45 4th Q. Took friggin long enough but Nebraska finally Nebraska'd.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Wide 0 0 Pass 4.5 Deep Out Green 25 2.24
Morris(+1, PR+1) gets some penetration with Ojabo getting chipped and Hutch doubled. Think I want to see Hawkins more under this but he has that chipping TE. Green(-2, cov-2) is playing way soft an inside it and suddenly they're at midfield. RPS-2 we have a vanilla Cov3 and this was the mid level read on a flood when they have no timeouts.
50 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 4-3 Under 2 Pass 4 Chip and ARO Colson Inc -1.11
Whole line takes a dive. Plan is to hit the WR flat if it's there and America's Rollout Out to a slot vs an ILB. Green(+1, RPS+1) is over the flat in Cov2 so roll time. Ojabo(+1) has survived the cuts and Hutch(+1) stayed outside of it and the RB to purse the rollout. Colson(+2, cov+2) is covering a slot receiver after starting with inside leverage this whole time and is in position to intercept at the sideline which is the only throw.
50 2nd 10 Gun Str Y-Flex 4-2-5 5-1 Split 2 Pass 6 WR Cross Morris Inc -1.02
Bring Hill(+1) who meets Ojabo(+1, PR+2) at Martinez while Morris(-1, cov-1) has dropped into his hot..but can't stay with it and Martinez nearly gets it to him off his back foot as he's getting Daxxed. RPS+2 but scary.
50 3rd 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Not Set 2 Pass 4 Screen Green 0 -0.71
Tempo(22) catches M talking to the sideline. It's a screen that Green(+3, tackling+2, RPS+3) murderates. Did they see it coming and try to look confused? I don't know. The tackle is 100% inbounds by the way.
50 4th 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Wide AC 0 Pass 7 Scissors Fade Hill Inc -3.47
Tempo(23) is meant to make sure the CB and Nk don't have their horizontal spacing right. Michigan brings THE HOUSE (PR+3) and it's Moten(+1) unblocked and Hutch(+2) wearing a fashionable right tackle-like shoulder accessory who get there first. Throw is actually really good. DO+ there, Martinez, and sorry I ever called you Taylor. Unfortunately for him Dax Hill(+3, cov+3) and Vincent Gray were in perfect horizontal spacing, and Hill can run the receiver to the sideline where he has no shot. Also for some reason just before the snap the broadcast clock snapped to 1 minute and stayed there a few seconds so the clock reads 0:54 when it should be 0:38 after this play. Weird. Also Hill gets an unsportsmanlike penalty that gets the Nebraska fans to cheer when they hear 15 yards against Michigan and boo when they learn that football has rules.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 32-29. 0:54 (but should be 0:38) 4th Q. All over but the kneeling.

I remember feeling pretty confident, then angry confident, then suddenly very very angry.

Nebraska certainly bunched the crappe. A drive chart:

  • 5-play, 75-yard TD drive on some tip-your-hat linebacker hell.
  • 1-play, 13-yard TD drive after the McNamara INT
  • 8-play, 75-yard TD drive that started w/ a fumble and the almost INT and ended with the late change score.
  • 6-play, 75-yard "TD" drive that was a 5-and-out before some legendary bullshit.
  • 9-play, 78-yard drive that was the big screen and the 4th&6 launch, and ended on downs at the 2.
  • Three-and out, Three-and-stripped, Four-and-out, Five-and-out, Five-and-out, Five-and-INT, and Five-and-Game Over

Note that Nebraska had only 64 chartable plays to nearly 100 for Michigan in this game. Nothing was sustainable on this side of the ball: The Huskers were either getting big chunks by messing with reads and linebackers and the game of football, or getting three yards on triple-option dives into the clutches of Hinton and Smith.

If you’re looking for proof that your newfound faith in Michigan’s DTs isn’t just  shadow, this is Mazi Smith one play removed from that opening screen pass he had to chase for 50 yards.

#58, the third lineman down from the top

Seems like he’s in pretty good shape. The next play is another triple-option that’s trying to set up a fourth-and-run situation and gets nowhere because Chris Hinton teleported behind the center.

#15, 2nd DL down from the top

I don’t have much respect for the Nebraska offensive tackles but their interior line was supposed to be pretty sound and this was another mauling on par with Wisconsin, another team whose OL struggles are tackle-related. It’s also showing up in the pass rush, though only with the starters, and mostly Smith. He was very close to a strip sack—just gotta learn to pin that arm so it can’t move forward:

Side note: it was obvious in 2 seconds that it bonked off his lineman’s head, which is a pass. Why the long review?

I am a defensive tackles zealot, no foolies, but when you talk about whether a defense can win down to down or not, it really comes back to them. Michigan’s starting DTs just had two excellent performances, on the road, against interior OL that we thought were going to be good in the preseason. I know we’re still in therapy for the 2018-2020 tackle situation, but I think it’s okay to start trusting a little, at least with the starting pair. One day we might even look back on the Mazi-Hinton era like the Taylor-Branch era and wonder why their contemporaries didn’t appreciate it until the rest of the defense came around.

So Michigan’s defense is perfectly fine and sound and everyone is pretty good?

Unfortunately no, because as feared the first outing against a functional passing game (since the 2nd half of Washington?) put Michigan’s still sketchy cornerbacks back on stage in ways that are very concerning, none more so than this 4th and 6 bust on the first drive that I put on Green:

There are ways to maintain man to man matchups here (the DBs have to maintain their levels) but you also should be ready to switch if one of them gets bonked—and that’s true no matter what coverage you’re playing. Michigan cleaned up their switch routes later in the game, and ended the game by leaving Hill in man. Also Green got his moment of redemption one play before that:

Gray was more of a mixed bag, leaning bad. He was all over one fade to Oliver Martin, which is nice to see since we know of Martin’s abilities, and his run support remained quite good. But Gray also got completely lost on the 13-yard zip route touchdown, and—terrifyingly, with MSU coming up at the end of October—went back to his old EXTREMELY PASS INTERFERENCE ways early in the game. I must have forgotten to clip it (or it’s already seared in your memory). The same happened with Turner.

Those breakdowns were really the major issues that weren’t specific to this game. I think the story of the game, defensively, is Nebraska emptied the drawer of all the college crappe that messed with our linebackers, Michigan was prepared for some of it and adjusted to the rest of it, and then the game was won on plays like the above that set up a lot of high-leverage moments.

But when they messed with our linebackers they MESSED THEM UP.

They did, and the reason we love to watch Frost offenses when they’re not being used against us is the Cornhusker offense is truly sixty minutes of linebacker hell. Specifically they schemed up ways to maximize the Michigan linebackers’ tendencies to peek in the backfield by moving their assignments around with fakes and orbit motion. In “linebackers” we include Dax Hill, since his nickel position was a hybrid LB in this game.

The long screen put Dax Hill into a regular linebacker role, faked a handoff, gave him some eye candy with a WR flare to the other side and a QB backing out after play-action, then when Hill was completely unsure where to be the RB leaked.

Josh Ross, despite what always wrong ABC analyst claimed, was the culprit on the huge wheel route, and if ABC wants to give me All-22 and announcers who can’t read what’s going on I will take that tradeoff every time. Anyway, Hill-Green pointed at the tight end, tagged him as he released, and stayed with him until the ball was in the air. Josh Ross watched the fake, decided the RB was staying in to block on play-action, and when that looked like a rollout he took a fatal step away from the player only he could be covering.

#12 the middle linebacker a little deeper than the other two.

The aforementioned Zipper play that scored Nebraska’s go-ahead during the Horrible Minute at the end of the 3rd quarter was what got Gray. This was set up by all the orbit motion—the Huskers kept sending the Z receiver around and behind the quarterback on flare action like you saw in the screen—and Michigan was defending that by having Gray travel with that dude so everyone else could stay home. When that guy went in motion this time Gray started booking it to the other side, and didn’t notice the guy had turned around.

#4 the cornerback near the top hash mark behind the 10 yard line

Did we have a plan for the crappe though?

We did! In fact I thought Macdonald had some really good ideas to deal with the stuff that he anticipated from the Huskers, starting with their method for defeating the triple-option:

That is another great play by the DTs, but that’s kind of the idea. Note that Ojabo got way outside and upfield, and Dax filled in behind him. The defense was making a choice: give me your RB dive all day and you’ll never get to use your numbers advantage outside. They didn’t add extra players to the interior either—this was a matchup they though they could win straight-up. If we’d ever gotten to see the 1997 Wolverines take on the false claimant to their national title, this is the same strategy they would have used, except that would have been dives to the fullback into Renes and co.

Michigan also anticipated some of the goofy stuff Nebraska was keeping in the bank for this game. This play was supposed to be a double pass, but Macdonald got the recipient matched on Dax Hill.

Dax was also the guy in coverage on the final 4th down heave against zero coverage. Live we all thought they were shooting themselves in the foot by hurrying up when they didn’t have to. The point of the hurry was to get what they got with the bunch formation on 4th and 6 on the first drive: a natural pick and Vincent Gray vs. Toure down the sideline. Michigan was ready, not with a switch but by having Hill and Gray cross each other with no contact.

I don’t RPS things like that because UFR’s procedure is to credit the player who does the thing unless it’s a major positional mismatch like Chris Graham covering a slot receiver. For example I credit a LB who runs through an RB for a sack, but credit RPS if he comes through unblocked. What doesn’t show in that hypothetical is that the DC schemed up a blitz that got an LB who’s very good at blitzing against an RB who’s not good at protection.

The thing about Macdonald’s RPS victories—and I am really appreciating this—is they’re kind of the opposite of Scott Frost’s methods. When you get got by Frost you think “man, he schemed that one up so well.” When you get got by Macdonald, you think “man, that defender WRECKED it!” because he managed to get the player he wanted in position to do the thing he is good at.

There’s no better example of this than the 4th down stop.

Michigan had help because Nebraska ran this against Michigan State for a walk-in TD. The DE on the top is Michael Morris, who’s been coached to think if this receiver starts motioning inside he’s trying to crack me and run the QB outside. Morris pops that receiver out of the way and strings it to the sideline. Behind him the “cornerback” has to defeat the lead block still, but the cornerbacks are off the field and Brad Hawkins, their best tackler in the secondary, is the dude tracking.

There’s nothing very RPS about that except preparing players who are best for those roles to do them—good ol’ football coaching, if you will. So I expect the RPS numbers won’t be in Mac’s favor, as the whole design of his defense is to make his players look good, not him look clever.

That must be some kind of chart to say all that.

Well let’s see.

Defensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Hinton 14.5 0 +14.5 Nebraska wanted to single him. It didn't work out for them.
Smith 12.5 3 +9.5 Ditto. Also stayed in the game for a lot of snaps.
Jenkins 7 0 +7 In very few snaps. Investing in #94 jerseys today!
Jeter 0.5 6 -5.5 Jeter doubles were the only consistent ground yards.
Speight 1 0.5 +0.5 Boring DT. Paired with Jeter and was doing his job.
Whittley     DNP -
Welschof     DPN -
Hutchinson 30.5 3.5 +27 PFF's DPotW again so I'm not crazy.
Morris 4 3 +1 Minuses were a failed pass rush gamble and coverage.
Ojabo 14.5 1 +13.5 Feasting on the Ts so hard he got the Hutchinson treatment.
Harrell 2 0 +2 Ceded PT to Ojabo, still their best LB among the OLBs.
Upshaw 2   +2 One rush each against the Nebraska Ts.
McGregor 1   +1 Thought he was Hutchinson on the one.
TOTAL 89.5 17 +72.5 Major caveat: Nebraska's tackles SUUUUUUUHHHCK.
Linebacker
Player + - T Notes
Ross 10 19 -9 Sixty minutes of linebacker hell.
Hill-Green 4.5 1.5 +3 Hey Blackledge, it ain't me babe! Also not the target.
Colson 6.5 4 +2.5 Same job as NHG, not as heady, way more athletic.
Barrett     DNC But he was rotating in with the WLBs.
TOTAL 21 24.5 -3.5 I'll take it but the busts were maximum busts.
Secondary
Player + - T Notes
Hill 16.5 7.5 +9 The screen was on him. Big road win also on him.
Hawkins 7 4 +3 +4 for the strip, +2 for the 4th down. Seems light?
Moten 1 2 -1 Not blaming for the illegal TD. Good and boring.
Kolesar     DNP -
Moore     DNP -
Paige     DNP -
Gray 5 6 -1 Major PI, unzipped for the go-ahead TD. Still their best CB.
Gem.Green 5 8 -3 Not minused for the missed INT. 4th and 6 conversion on him.
Turner 1 2 -1 Walking PI flag not what I wanted to see w MSU upcoming.
TOTAL 35.5 29.5 +6 Safeties are alright, don't forget about the Panic-o-meter.
Metrics
Pressure 26 3 +23 On 23 dropbacks, only one on a non-passing down.
Coverage 16 28 -12 College crappe schemed guys wide wide wide open.
Tackling 6 6 0 Hidden RPS stuff as wins led to big sticks/bad matchups.
RPS 14 17 -3 First-timer vs Frost. Both got streaky, Mac ended on a run.

Why is the senior captain the only LB undone by Sixty Minutes of Linebacker Hell?

Ross deserved his screwups, but he was also the primary target of most of Nebraska’s college crappe, and there’s only so much a guy can get jerked around by different things before he starts to get out of sorts. I thought he fought through it admirably, and also got really frustrated at times that he wasn’t doing Senior things, but then he’s a newcomer to this defense like everybody else.

Junior Colson got targeted for one drive earlier in the game, and on this final drive concept, which was designed to get either a quick 8 yards and out of bounds vs a soft Cover 3, or this exact matchup:

He doesn’t have to run that fast to do this, but he does have to accelerate to close the gap immediately. It’s impressive that he did so.

Do we have another young DT to get excited about this week? I will keep asking until you say no.

It’s not like investing in individual player fandom early is a thing* but if it was I would tell you to invest in #94 jerseys before Jenkins adds his last 20 pounds and goes full Mo Hurst. A lot of the huge plays you remember from this game—the 4th and 2 stop near the goal line, the strip at the end of the game, and the muffed punt that led to the “joint possession,” were immediately preceded by an awesome play from the interior line on another short down…or two of them. And that was usually Jenkins. This is the play before the 4th and 2:

#94 second guy from the bottom:

Here’s a 2nd and 2 on the second drive of the second half, after Nebraska turned a 13-0 slugfest into 13-7 then promptly kicked Michigan’s offense off the field.

#94 the 2nd guy from the bottom on the line:

And then here’s the 3rd and 2 after that:

Same guy, same spot, same result:

If you make anything from that investment I get a share. If they end up in the clearance rack at Dunham’s, uh, blame Don Brown?

* [Says the guy who uses every opportunity to tell people he got a Ramon Santiago jersey in the clearance wrack at Dunhams before he was traded to the Mariners for Carlos Guillen]

[Incoherent shouting in Scottish]

Yes, the ends were awesome, but if you thought the Wisconsin tackles were sub-Wisconsin these Nebraska OTs are—pending Northwestern—the worst we’re going to face all year.

Na ye eejit ah said how come wur oor ends flying tae th' hielands?

Ah, this.

I dinged Ojabo for that one but Nebraska was getting away with putting those OTs way way back. This is a breaking a rule that a lot of teams break, and a lot of refs let them. Setting further back gives them an edge in that battle for inches before the edge rusher turns into the quarterback. Michigan’s plan for rushing was to have both Hutchinson and Ojabo speed rush their respective tackles, then one comes low and the other flushes Martinez into his buddy. Like so:

In the play two above Ojabo was supposed to fight back inside but tried to get the edge first instead of getting into a pushing battle at the right depth, and the extra yard the RT got from his alignment created the extra yard Martinez needed. Martinez also knew it was time to bail as soon as that happened because the above was about to happen again.

I think the bigger issue was we kept sending slot safeties blitzing the same edge and Nebraska always had an answer for that.

Right, what was up with our safeties blitzing into nobody?

Here’s where Frost really got one over on Macdonald in the rock-paper-scissors department. The non-bullshitte parts of the first half were mostly forced gives to the running back who would hit a small gap for 1 yard and fall forward for 1.5 more. I think Macdonald went into halftime believing his Hutchinson was handing the interior so well that he could gamble at one of those blitzes that ends up swallowing both sides of a read at the same time—that Don Brown play at BC versus Notre Dame if you recall it.

They pulled it off brilliantly in the first half:

Watch Hutchinson win his way inside and Hill come through as well, inducing a major hold by #69 (uncalled but that’s not the defense’s fault). Frost picked up on this, and attacked it later, and several times caught Michigan removing a defender and giving up 7 yards instead of 2.5.

What’s up with Aidan Hutchinson getting minuses all of a sudden?

This was a matchup that went better than I feared when we hired a guy to turn us into the Ravens, because the Ravens function off the fact that a quarterback in the NFL isn’t going to be running out the Judon edge all the time. Hutchinson had some plays where he had to be a genuine OLB, and getting in a footrace with Adrian Martinez is not his strong suit.

#97 on the right

Of course, he’s not exactly slow, and his ability to read a play and react to it at the speed of a pro linebacker can make up for the difference. My read on this play was Green was supposed to get out there, which means Hutchinson MADE A PLAY:

And of course he was rampant whenever given a chance to go against one of Nebraska’s awful OTs.

Nebraska pulled out all the college crappe, chips from the RBs and TEs, cut blocking, designed rollouts, tripping, yanking on a mouth guard, and lining up their tackles further in the backfield than the (non-end) receivers. That was a completely understandable reaction to having a pair of bad freshman offensive tackles, and then losing the true freshman and having to replace him with the guy they pulled two games ago in favor of a true freshman. Hutchinson and Ojabo were going to crush a straight-up battle, and as soon as Nebraska was in a passing situation that’s exactly what happened.

Why it didn’t pay off in sack totals like Wisconsin was a combination of factors, some out of Michigan’s control and some not. Here’s a still from the mad scramble that Martinez threw through Green’s arms.

image

Again The Sack Plan was to have one of the DEs come low and the other go high to flush. The difference between one of these leading to a sack and all the bullshit that came after trippy boy here got away with his dance move was the DTs. When they caved the pocket we got Smith’s almost strip-sack. When they got stuck on the line of scrimmage there was room to escape.

Did they try to edge Dax Hill this week?

Yes, the one time.

How did that work out for them?

Mmmmmmm.

And that wasn’t the end of it. Brian underrates catching tipped balls because he thinks where an oblong spheroid drops isn’t really something you can control. I added a point for doing just that, but +3 of this +4 play is baiting the quarterback with an open tight end who is suddenly open no more.

You could argue, thus hatin’ ABC analyst Todd Blackledge does, that the throw needs to be further in the middle of the field. I’ve also seen, like, the career of Jake Butt and many Tom Brady games when going high to your TE with a safety in trail is money and leading him into the other safety is asking for bad stuff. What I see here is a safety who made up a lot of ground in a very short time to break up the pass, and if it fell in his hands it was just as likely to fall into Moten’s for six because defenders are always in better position to collect batted balls.

There was a time when I was considering removing Dax Hill’s admittedly forward-looking star. That time’s gone. Star.

The refs...

I include ref scores to explain what happened, and I vented about tackles set up way off the line of scrimmage on Twitter already, but I don’t want to dwell on it. Also Nebraska DC Erik Chinander’s dad died late last night and since I know exactly what that feels like, I have zero desire to start a fans war with the Huskers right now.

But we do have to discuss the Illegal Formation TD, because the formation caused it, and it’s a good opportunity to understand how Michigan’s secondary sets its coverage responsibilities. Here’s the play:

There’s no question it should have been called back: There are only six guys on the line of scrimmage. But it’s not just that it’s breaking the rules; it’s breaking them in a very specific way to screw up Michigan’s coverage settings and get that specific player behind the defense.

So a defense knows—because there’s always five lineman, one end on the other side, and one quarterback—that the maximum threats there can be on any side of the formation is four. Defenses simplify this to three by leaving the RB to the linebackers (if he splits out there’s a special check). This is how a defense can set their coverage quickly: 1-2-3. If you see a guy covered it’s the same: –>1, –>2, –>COVERED: IGNORE THIS GUY, –>3.

image

When the defense set their coverage for this they went Z:1, X:2, Y:3, done. Maybe Moten points out that there’s an F hiding behind the tackle or Gray sees him releasing, but that isn’t in the coverage plan—that would be a guy noticing something is off and leaving his assignment.

All three of the wideouts accounted for went downfield but the X was blocking, and it’s not unusual for designated blockers to bend college football’s already generous three-yard rule, and if there’s one coach in college football who would bend a rule it’s Scott Frost, so I assume the Z was supposed to be on the line and the X covered. The route combo however is designed to get the coverage away from the F, who’s hiding behind the LT. Also it took place right after halftime, and the most egregious illegal formations with the tackles back that they got away with were the two plays preceding this one. So yeah, I think Frost got away with one.

The strip.

That’s a question? Like do you require analysis on it?

Uhh…who’s awesome?

Hawkins. Hawkins is awesome. It’s pretty self-explanatory, except the reason Martinez got the first down was he put Hutchinson on the ground after Hutch threw the LT into Martinez’s way.

Martinez is a Dude on the field. He also fought really hard to keep the pile moving for those few extra yards after he already had the first down, and you have to respect him for that.

Who’s Mr. Worldwide this week?

image

As a reminder, our criteria here are versatility, the ability to make your teammates better, being cool against long odds, and enjoying time spent under highway overpasses. This is decided after the second UFR. Your top three this week:

1. Daxton Hill. Need a safety? A linebacker? A cornerback? All three? Sure, just don’t try to edge him, or throw over him, or throw past him. Had the one big bust because he was hanging out under a highway overpass and didn’t see the screen happen, but fought back from a –3 on the first play of the game to make the heroes list.

2. Hassan Haskins. Oh, Blake Corum was named the nation’s #1 RB to PFF? Haskins roared back into that conversation, playing some fullback, leaking into the flat like a receiver, and generally making the offensive engine hum by grinding little runs into first downs. Likes hanging out under highway overpasses so much kept sticking his head under London Bridges, and then he mimicked one.

3. Luke Schoonmaker. Got in the receiving game, turning around McNamara’s passing stats at the time with the first huge TE leak play. Huge bounce back in blocking after Wisconsin yet nobody noticed. Schoonmaker’s Schoonerville has lots of highway overpasses.

HMs (half points). I really need to give some out this week. Both DTs, Ojabo, Hutchinson, Blake Corum, and most of all Andrew Stueber.

3-2-1 point system so our standings are:

7: Aidan Hutchinson
5: Erick All
4: Hassan Haskins
3: Ronnie Bell, Ryan Hayes, Daxton Hill
2: Mike Sainristil, Junior Colson, Josh Ross
1.5: Andrew Stueber.
1: Nikhai Hill-Green, Cade Kolesar, Cade McNamara, Luke Schoonmaker
0.5: Chris Hinton, Mazi Smith, Blake Corum

Heroes?

Hutchinson (drink) and the rest of his linemates: Smith, Hinton, Jenkins, and Ojabo. Dax Hill. Brad Hawkins just for two plays screw the scoring.

Maybe not so heroic?

Josh Ross. All of the cornerbacks, though I’m maybe being harsh on Green if he wasn’t supposed to switch on the 4th and 6.

What does it mean for the bye Northwestern Michigan State and the future?

Take this defensive line into battle. One guy who might be the best defensive player in college football, and the other guys are rounding into dudes before our eyes.

Don’t put the panic-o-meter in storage. The better passers are all in the back end of the schedule. We haven’t seen Gray and Green and Turner picked on by a team that leans on its passing attack yet, but this glimpse showed they’re not as vastly improved from last year as we’d hoped. Maybe they’ll get another guy in the rotation over the break?

Daxton Hill: 5-Star Nickel. He’s starting to feel it. He still makes some mistakes, but Michigan is putting a lot of the hard stuff on him and he’s rewarding them with big plays. That interception was a turning point, and I can’t emphasize enough how much I was not expecting as much as a contest when the ball was thrown where it was.

Josh Ross is who he is. A great blitzer, a team leader, a guy with a nose that can’t get enough run action.

Kids be coming. Junior Colson, Kris Jenkins, David Ojabo…I expect we’ll hear those a lot in the coming years.

That Speed in Space stuff is Haaaard to defend. Hope the film sessions last week and this give Gattis lots of ideas.

Mike Macdonald might be good at this. For a first-timer whose RPS wins don’t normally show in the RPS because he puts his players in good spots, he still came out close to even with the one guy in college football who’s really good at making himself look clever and whose team can only move the ball consistently when he is.

Moment of Zen:

Comments

lhglrkwg

October 15th, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^

The fact that the DL is coming along will help out a possibly (probably?) weak secondary a lot. Generally speaking, the DL has been stoning opposing rushing attacks which means Macdonald can leave more guys to worry about coverage. Being able to do most things with 4 d-linemen is huge as the Bills showed last weekend in dunking on the Chiefs. This will be a problem vs the OSU's of the world, but if the front four can handle rushing attacks reasonably well on their own all of a sudden, that will hide a lot of the CBs weaknesses

The Homie J

October 15th, 2021 at 6:36 PM ^

Yup, you can have a subpar secondary if your d-line is legit.  Michigan State (since the no fly zone graduated to the NFL) has basically been this.  Total brick wall for a front 7, laffy taffy behind them but other than Ohio State, it doesn't usually hurt them much.  We had a big weakness in the middle of the d-line from 2018 to 2020 and that let teams utterly tee off on the secondary.  With a front line that can rush the passer and defend the run, you can get away with a lot on the back end.

Mo Hurst himself was probably equivalent to having 2 five star safety's because his burst through the middle on nearly every play meant the safety's behind only had to cover their ground for like 3 seconds tops before the QB had to flush or get sacked.

TrueBlue2003

October 15th, 2021 at 7:28 PM ^

Yes, everything starts with the line, and it warms my heart to no end to see Smith and Hinton playing so well.

The pieces were there for this to be a great team.  A lot had to go right in terms of development, but high on the list was Smith and Hinton playing up to their talent level in year three and that's exactly what appears to be happening.  Icing on the cake that Morris and Jenkins are developing into dudes as well.

Love it!

snarling wolverine

October 15th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^

Nebraska has an illegal formation and any hope it was an accident is gone because the slot who would have been covered goes downfield. 

Hutch(+2, PR+3) ripped through the LT and is coming in to sack with Ojabo(+1) coming around deep, so the LT sticks his leg out and trips him.

Nebraska initiates a substitution at 10 seconds, which should be a Delay of Game

Nebraska under Frost is a bush league program.   Enjoy the L Scotty.

Why did the clock stop after their last 3rd down, anyway?  Did the refs think he had gotten out of bounds?

AZBlue

October 15th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^

I think someone did rule it OOB which is also why the clock reset to 1:00 just before the 4th down snap and maybe why the clock didn't start immediately at the snap - since the clock was at 1:03 at the tackle on 3rd.

Tackle was made VERY clearly in bounds.  Even with all the other Reffing gaffes it would have been a huge point in UNL had managed to tie or win the game.

TrueBlue2003

October 15th, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^

Yes, and he was more suited to man-to-man but Green-Warren seemed like a good zone fit.  Surprised we haven't seen any of him.  It seems like Gemon is talented, but just needs to learn the zone better.  And Gray is the opposite.  He seems to be made for zone coverage, is smart with it, is a good tackler, just not a great athlete.

Hopefully, it clicks better for Gemon.  He and Hill can mayyybe soft of cover the OSU (and MSU) receivers, right? (pleasepleasepleaseplease)

swn

October 15th, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^

Seems every position group has delivered this year as hoped or better except Green/Gray. Disappointing that it doesn't seem any of Turner, Perry, Seldon etc. can do any better.

Nevertheless, the defense has still been a pleasant surprise given DL uncertainty and year 1 scheme.

Hail to the Vi…

October 15th, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^

I was thinking about creating a board post on this, but figured it has probably been talked about ad nauseam throughout the various game threads this year and probably wasn't necessary: The guys really "coming on", "starting to pop" or whatever moniker phrase you want to use for players that are developing into true playmakers for the future seems to be densely consolidated amongst the front seven of the defense.

Chris Hinton, Mazi Smith, David Ojabo: To me look like guys that are strong candidates to earn their UFR star in 2022 on their current trajectory. Frankly the interior d line has been a revelation for this defense and is a huge reason why this team is 6-0 right now. Also encouraging that it doesn't appear to be on some wonky bullshit, these guys are just winning assignments against legitimate competition.

Junior Colston: Going to kind of put him in his own category here. The guy oozes potential, and despite the fact sometimes he clearly doesn't quite know what he's doing (understandable, is freshman), he's so athletic that at times it doesn't really matter. He can jus go out there and make plays. Feels like he'll make the kind of impact next year that Ojabo is making this year. He'll blow some assignments, but he's going to be one of the best athletes on the field against anyone and he'll make some freakish, eye popping plays. If he arrives ahead of schedule, he could earn a start next year as well.

Kalel Mullings, Kris Jenkins, Mike Morris: These guys just keep getting better. I'm not sure that they're trending towards breakout players, but they currently offer very solid depth and project to be solid starters or stout platoon depth that can keep the defense humming without much drop off when the starters need a breather. 

The front seven appears to be developing into a strength somehow, when coming into the season there was concern that it could be a cratering black hole for the next few seasons. I think we can say with confidence that is not very likely.

The secondary... ehh, we're gonna find out. But I don't feel great about it at all. Our starting safeties and corners play, well pretty much every meaningful snap. The safeties are excellent, but both guys are almost assuredly gone next season. Moten has been pretty solid, but we haven't seen much of anything else behind him. The corners are not good now, and they're still getting every meaningful snap. I'm assuming as the roster stands today, we have no playable depth otherwise they would be playing. Will Johnson is walking into a great opportunity to play right away with a very good front seven alongside him. If we can somehow get Domani Jackson to make the flip, it would not surprise me if those two guys are starting for Michigan one year from today. All due respect to Green and Gray. They have improved from the disasterous 2020 into "average starter on average B1G team". I'm still anticipating they're going to have a real bad time against MSU, PSU (if Clifford is back) and OSU. My guess is we need a lot of help at that spot and we're going to see that play itself out in the back half of the season. 

LeCheezus

October 16th, 2021 at 12:21 AM ^

I’d put Morris in his own category, because he basically plays a position nobody else on the defense does- both DT (or 3-4 DE) and OLB.  Truly allows a switch between the base nickel 2-4-5 and the 5-1-5 with minimal changing of personnel.  Will be interesting to see if he stays the same size next year and keeps that job, at 275+ I don’t think he can’t get much bigger and do the OLB stuff.

Hail to the Vi…

October 16th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^

Fair point, and Morris has been really good so far this season. I was trying to temper expectations and probably underrated his impact despite how he has played. But I agree Morris exists in his own category as well. Michigan doesn't have another guy that can play DT and OLB in this defense (I'm sure Hutchinson could, but you get more out of his talent by letting him play the EDGE in this scheme at all times where he can wreak havoc)

MGoStrength

October 16th, 2021 at 8:48 AM ^

The corners are not good now, and they're still getting every meaningful snap. I'm assuming as the roster stands today, we have no playable depth otherwise they would be playing. Will Johnson is walking into a great opportunity to play right away with a very good front seven alongside him. If we can somehow get Domani Jackson to make the flip, it would not surprise me if those two guys are starting for Michigan one year from today. All due respect to Green and Gray. They have improved from the disasterous 2020 into "average starter on average B1G team". I'm still anticipating they're going to have a real bad time against MSU, PSU (if Clifford is back) and OSU. My guess is we need a lot of help at that spot and we're going to see that play itself out in the back half of the season. 

I'm with you on the corners overall, but I think Green is not bad and if he comes back in 2022 I think he's still a starter.  Keep in mind he only played 6 games last year under one position coach and coordinator.  Now he's playing in a new system with a new coordinator and a new position coach.  I think he'll be a solid P5 CB.  Gray...well he is what he is.  A good run supporter who lacks the the athleticism and speed to be an effective P5 CB.  If Johnson is as good as advertised he should be starting day one.  The one guy on the bench I'm most surprised has not seen much action is Seldon.  People talked of him having Covid last year that set him back, but I still don't recall seeing him this year.  That's perplexing.

stephenrjking

October 15th, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^

Very, very encouraging stuff from the DTs.

CB busts? Not good. But, while busts are a concern, we’ve yet to see them consistently overmatched physically.

Ask again after MSU. 

Michigan4Life

October 15th, 2021 at 6:43 PM ^

Yup. MSU will be a good test because they have Nailor and Reed. PSU has Dotson. I already conceded that OSU will put up ton of points on Michigan defense because they have too many weapons on offense. Michigan CBs will get torched by Olave and Wilson which is fine since both WRs are 1st round caliber. The good news is none of the B1G QBs are good except for Stroud who has made strides as a starting QB since the first two games of the season.

GCS

October 15th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^

Seth,

I think you're missing a key part of the rule when you keep saying that Martinez was past the line of scrimmage on that 4th quarter pass. Everything I've seen about that rule states that the thrower must be entirely beyond the line of scrimmage for it to be illegal. Sure, the leading part of his body does cross, but he has plenty behind the line still when he lets go.

mikegros

October 15th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^

You are correct here. From the rule book:

"Illegal Forward Pass ARTICLE 2.

A forward pass is illegal if:

a. It is thrown by a Team A player whose entire body is beyond the neutral zone when the ball is released."

I think I've seen cases before where only the players trailing leg/foot was still in the neutral zone and it was correctly not flagged. 

Seth, you're doing an awesome job with these - it's really impressive work. Only worth pointing out for future knowledge, not a complaint.

dragonchild

October 15th, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^

There’s this pervasive take about “let the players play”, so maybe I’m alone here, but it’s so not fun to see teams brazenly cheat. You’re not playing the game at that point; you’re desecrating it and staining your own career. Cheaters gonna cheat but it’s on the refs to enforce the damn rules.

EverybodyMurders

October 15th, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^

For what it’s worth on Sams film breakdown with Vance Bedford he attributed the busts as below:

Illegal formation playaction seam TD: Vance said in his opinion the illegal formation probably helped get the guy open, but to lead to an open touchdown itself is on Gray to play closer to the hash since no receivers were on the short side of the field

Rub route that took out Dax - Vance said it’s on Dax to play more aggressively in man. Did not attribute any thought to switching as was described here

Figured these were worth mentioning since Seth disagrees in UFR and I was curious what happened 

Blue Vet

October 15th, 2021 at 6:08 PM ^

Good stuff. Thanks, Seth.

HOWEVAH, your UFRs are like ringing a bell and, like Pavlov's dogs, I'm salivating for more this weekend.

Is there any way to arrange a Michigan scrimmage with someone?

BlueInGreenville

October 15th, 2021 at 6:12 PM ^

I remember people on this board saying that we didn't take a DT in this class because Jenkins was only like 240 pounds coming out of high school...well, we took a DT and the kid is killing it.

And to the credit of the ABC announcers, Blackledge did point out that Jenkins was wrecking guys out there and I didn't catch it in real time.  But watching the replays, man...good genetics.

 

Blue Middle

October 15th, 2021 at 6:17 PM ^

Martinez is a Dude on the field. He also fought really hard to keep the pile moving for those few extra yards after he already had the first down, and you have to respect him for that.

I see what you did there.  And I love it.

jsquigg

October 15th, 2021 at 7:15 PM ^

I think that the remaining teams won't be as gimmicky, and I think that even with a weaker secondary that this defense is better equipped to make an offense sustain drives. Hopefully the team develops familiarity with the defense so that the busts disappear.

AlbanyBlue

October 16th, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^

I think MSU, especially with a bye week before our game, is going to be gimmicky as hell on offense. Our game is stil their Super Bowl.

They're going to try to run Walker, largely fail, and then it'll be all deep shots and beaucoup de crappe.

Sadly, it may work very, very well for them.

waittilnextyear

October 15th, 2021 at 8:06 PM ^

My take is we need to start Green-Warren alongside Hill and both Greens. Maybe Hill-Green can drop into coverage more? Look into getting Donovan Warren another few games of eligibility to spell them.

Chris S

October 15th, 2021 at 11:54 PM ^

Question on the History Lesson. Wouldn't it make more sense to switch the names of the fullback and halfback based on the where they line up? Or was the fullback originally the one lined up all the way back and the halfback lined up in the middle?