Technical Flyover: Surveying the first half of 2021 Comment Count

Ian Boyd October 19th, 2021 at 4:39 PM

If you didn’t know, I’m relatively new to the Ann Arbor area.

I moved moved here in 2013. Before then, as a resident of Austin and an alumni of the University of Texas, I mostly knew Michigan as a pretty good team who helped Vince Young look like a hero in the 2005 Rose Bowl and had a rivalry with Ohio State which didn’t seem to be going great.

Naturally after moving to the area and covering football more nationally with SB Nation, I began to dive deeper into Michigan football history. Beyond my surveys into the past, I’ve been here for the “wait, I dunno about this” turn in the Brady Hoke era (maybe at MGoBlog the suspicion came earlier), the part where everyone wanted Hoke and Dave Brandon out, the elation for the Jim Harbaugh hire, and the entirety of the Harbaugh tenure.

In my view, the Harbaugh era nearly collapsed in 2018 and my confidence in the program tanked. Yes, ostensibly they had the “Revenge tour” and a 10-win season, but to my eyes the games against Ohio State and Florida revealed Harbaugh’s attempted upgrades had failed to keep up with their rivals or modern football. They handed the offense to Shea Patterson, who proved entirely unworthy of the trust, and the adjustment to hire Josh Gattis to bring an RPO system in 2019 did nothing to make him more effective.

Meanwhile the Don Brown defense was exposed as a mirage. Brown had an aggressive approach heavy on spitfire and low on nuance. What’s worse, they didn’t recruit for it, and as the roster dried of press-man cornerbacks with NFL athleticism, everything got worse and worse.

Normally serious football programs in today’s age don’t give coaches a chance to rebuild a collapse which took place on their own watch. You’re done, out and away. Jim Harbaugh is pretty unique though. He’s the favorite son of the program, had a big contract which was renegotiated, and has been working under a president we now know isn’t long for leadership at the University. So Harbaugh got a chance to retool the program and make a case for retention and a sturdier contract.

Midway through the year and the Wolverines are 6-0 with all the major Big 10 East battles looming. What has Harbaugh done to remake Michigan and how does it look heading into the gauntlet?

[AFTER THE JUMP, JIM HARBAUGH'S ADJUSTMENTS FOR 2021]

The adjustment

Michigan made some pretty serious changes after the 2020 debacle. The defensive coordinator change is an obvious one, I’d argue some of the offensive changes have been pretty substantial and interesting as well.

When Michigan hired Ed Warriner to coach the offensive line in 2018, it was part of an overall shift toward a more typical spread system. Warriner has been an inside zone and spread offensive guy for a long time, dating back to the late 2000’s with Mark Mangino at Kansas before the stint with Urban Meyer at Ohio State. To emphasize the physical yet zone oriented scheme was a big change for Harbaugh and Michigan, who’d been about the true power game previously.

Then for 2021 Jim seems to have said, “if I’m doing down it’s not gonna be because we didn’t run the power properly at Michigan.”

Tight ends coach Sherrone Moore was entrusted with the offensive line, a position he played but had never been directly over before, and Michigan has run “God’s play” a dozen different ways this season and done it very well. While Gattis is up in the booth directing the action, the design of the offense has Harbaugh written all over it. It’s very heavy on power runs, tight end-heavy sets, and hunting matchups from empty dropback sets on passing downs.

It’s a more realized version of the 2016 Wolverines, who had a similar style of play with Wilton Speight at the helm and a “thunder and lightning” combination at tailback with De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans. Everything is more precise with this unit though and there's a different feel overall.

Check out the 2016 Michigan offensive line compared with the current group, we’ll start from after the catastrophic injury which robbed Grant Newsome of a promising career.

This group is bigger, heavier, and was less heralded in recruiting but still well regarded and ultimately more physical and skilled in the run game. The composite pieces of the offense also fit together more cleanly.

The 2016 Wolverines did some of their best work THROWING to the tight end (Jake Butt) and fullback (Khalid Hill) and weren’t particularly explosive running or throwing the ball unless Chris Evans was breaking free against weaker opponents.

The 2021 Wolverines have a clear identity and the pieces fit together quite nicely. They have several good blocking tight ends and a pair of backs who bring power (Hassan Haskins) and explosiveness (Blake Corum), on a more consistent basis.

They also have a quarterback in Cade McNamara with some knowhow and ability to execute Jim Harbaugh’s dropback spread passing game. Some of the same formational tricks and concepts which helped Jake Rudock or Wilton Speight move the chains are now on display with McNamara. Had this team been able to field Ronnie Bell all year they’d be on another level here and in the play-action/RPO game but Harbaugh is still capable of scheming open receivers at the chains if the quarterback can be trusted to hit them in rhythm. Thus far McNamara has been able to get the job done.

On defense, Harbaugh made the necessary adjustment to replace “Dr. Blitz” Don Brown with a less stubborn coordinator. Interestingly enough, he went very young and unproven with this hire.

The story Jim has told has essentially been of older brother John offering him a chance to poach one of his best assistants with the Baltimore Ravens out of love for little brother and Michigan football. This was really a bold choice by Jim, hiring a coach who did some grad assistant/quality control work for Georgia (four years) before moving up to work for the Ravens where he’s been ever since. Mike MacDonald had never been a defensive coordinator at any level and wasn’t coming in with experience of the college game.

John must really like Jim though because MacDonald really seems to get it, regardless of the lack of experience.

The way the Wolverines often stack their two best defenders to the wide side of the field, consequently denying space to college spread offenses, reveals an easy understanding by MacDonald of the task at hand.

Schematically, he brought a 3-4 defensive philosophy taken from the Ravens’ own playbook. He learned under Dean Pees (who worked under Bill Belichik for many years) and then Don Martindale (more of a Rob Ryan disciple). Between Belichik and Ryan you have a wealth of knowledge on 3-4 defensive schemes and you can see some of each influence on this scheme.

The 2021 Wolverines know how to attack protections and will use chaotic looking fronts on passing downs to set up four and five man pressures which often get a favorable 1-on-1 matchup or even a free-hitter into the backfield.

On standard downs the Wolverines have an abundance of two-high AND one-high coverages, as opposed to the simpler days of mostly running press-man with a single deep safety under Brown, or else Cover 2.

Having the ability to confuse quarterbacks with disguised coverages and to shade help over different receivers or routes will be invaluable for this upcoming run against Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State.

The prognosis

The main priority for Harbaugh in 2021 was to save his job, which I believe he's probably already done. They're already bowl eligible, currently undefeated, and pretty darn likely to win 8-9 games even if they lose all three of the big matchups remaining on the schedule.

An 8-4 Michigan isn't particularly exciting right now, yet it would be much better than many expected before the season and rich with potential for the future.

Mike MacDonald is only 34 years old and likely to stick for at least a little before moving on. He has very little coordinator experience, very little experience in recruiting, and as a defensive coach it's harder to get a promotion to "head coach" if he even wanted one yet.

On offense, as effective as Cade McNamara has been at driving the bus, J.J. McCarthy has oozed athletic potential in his limited action, and Michigan's supporting cast on offense is likely to include all of the main characters of 2021 and likely Ronnie Bell as well. The upcoming contests will either cement McNamara as a worthy starter for a team with bigger aspirations or else make it easier to make a change to McCarthy once he's ready.

The offensive line may need to be reworked some for 2021 but will at least return Trevor Keegan, Zac Zinter, and Karsen Barnhart with Ryan Hayes likely back at left tackle as well.

While you never want to throw away a year, the 2022 season sets up very nicely for Michigan and the program appears to be in much stronger overall shape than a year ago.

As for the rest of this season. At this point Michigan fans can't help but begin to wonder if maybe, just maybe, this could be the year where it finally stops. Decent chance of it from what I've seen, but it's probably worth looking at further after they've cleared hurdles like Michigan State and Penn State.

We'll talk more about the specific matchup with the Spartans next week. In the meantime, halfway through 2021 and it appears Harbaugh may be the man for the job after all.

Comments

blue in dc

October 19th, 2021 at 6:08 PM ^

On the offensive side:

Coaches all big ten

first team:

- Jake Butt

- Erik Magnuson

second team:

- Ben Braden

- Mason Cole

- Amara Darboh

- Kyle Kalis

third team

- Wilton Speight

honorable mention

- De’veon Smith

more than half the starting offense was first or second all big ten and Jake Butt was a consensus All American

They were 13th in the country in offensive FEI.

2016 was not a bad offensive team.

 

 

saveferris

October 20th, 2021 at 11:14 AM ^

2016 still rankles with me.  OSU has pretty much been the better team during Harbaugh's tenure, but 2016 should have been our season.  We were better than the Buckeyes that season and shit just didn't go our way that day.

Who knows where we'd be today if we'd won in Columbus that season?  We'd probably have won the B1G Championship over Wisconsin, made the CFP and the program would've had a lot of buzz going for it.  Instead, we seem to have been stuck in the mud ever since.

Creedence Tapes

October 20th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^

Who knows where we'd be today if we'd won in Columbus that season?  We'd probably have won the B1G Championship over Wisconsin, made the CFP and the program would've had a lot of buzz going for it.  Instead, we seem to have been stuck in the mud ever since.

No doubt. No doubt in my mind. You better believe things would have been different.

 

 

 

We'd have gone pro,

 

 

 

 

in a heartbeat.

 

 

 

 

 

We'd be making millions of dollars, and living in a big old mansion somewhere.

 

 

 

You know, soaking it up in a hot tub, with our soulmate. 

1VaBlue1

October 20th, 2021 at 12:56 PM ^

That "bad game" can be directly blamed on the hurt shoulder.  He wasn't cleared to play until early in the game week (Tuesday or Wednesday, IIRC), so he wasn't at 'full' strength.  And if you ever get up the nerve and deal with anxiety induced vomiting to re-watch the game, you'll notice that not one single pass from Speight went beyond 20 yards from the LoS.  His shoulder wouldn't let him throw it effectively.  

And yet, that game should've been a win.

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^

Before he got hurt, Speight was better than a meh quarterback 

Based on what?  His stats were not great.  For a point of comparison, JT Barrett who most UM fans don't think was a great QB had similar stats to Wilton during JT's two mediocre seasons in '15 and '16, but significantly better stats in his other two years in '14 and '17.

stephenrjking

October 19th, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^

What sticks out about 2016 is that the skill position pieces were nice but not great. Darboh and Butt were very good, and Chesson was fine, and the RBs got the job done. Speight was good, not great, before his injury.

The OL had holdover ratings talent from the Hoke era, but didn’t gel into a dominant unit, particularly after the Newsome injury. Michigan had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter against both Iowa and Ohio State and could not close those games out on the ground; the OL was just not good enough to do that.

But put all those pieces together and that offense did about as much as you could hope. They got everything out of it they could. The only game where it was really a disappointment (apart from TOs by an injured Speight in Columbus) was the Iowa game.

It wasn’t a great offense, but it was a good one. And looking at the personnel, that’s as much as you could have hoped for that year.

 

StephenRKass

October 19th, 2021 at 5:09 PM ^

Wow. Solid understandable analysis and assessment. Great to help me better understand where things are at with Harbaugh, and also with understanding what is going on with schemes both offensively and defensively.

I also still am really waiting to see what happens vs. MSU and PSU. Even though I'm more positive now than at the beginning of the year, I still need to see what happens in those games. I'm wiling to concede OSU this year and nothing else. But of course, if Michigan could beat OSU, it would almost be beyond comprehension and be true cause for elation.

MGoStrength

October 19th, 2021 at 5:28 PM ^

An 8-4 Michigan isn't particularly exciting right now, yet it would be much better than many expected before the season and rich with potential for the future.

I find it interesting how the tides shift from last Dec/Jan to now.  I'm not sure what he's proven beyond he can win a close game on the road (to teams with losing records).  From my perspective, yes it's progress from 2020, but that's not saying much.  There is still a lot of season left to be played.  He still needs to beat MSU and make the OSU game at least somewhat competitive.  I'm cautiously optimistic, but if he goes 0-2 versus the rivals I still think he deserves to lose his job unless he wins every other game.  Fans won't be happy if we lose all 3 meaningful games against MSU, PSU, & OSU.  

Emmitt Smith's…

October 19th, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^

I find it interesting how the tides shift from last Dec/Jan to now.  I'm not sure what he's proven beyond he can win a close game on the road (to teams with losing records).  From my perspective, yes it's progress from 2020, but that's not saying much.  There is still a lot of season left to be played.  He still needs to beat MSU and make the OSU game at least somewhat competitive.  I'm cautiously optimistic, but if he goes 0-2 versus the rivals I still think he deserves to lose his job unless he wins every other game. 

I too find it interesting how the tides shift. Or rather, how the goalposts move. Your parenthetical indicates that you're clearly unimpressed by wins in Madison, and Lincoln at night, but what can the team do but play who's in front of them? In the preseason, would you have been anything other than elated to know that Michigan would be 6-0 at this point? In your preseason prognosticating, would you not have been happy with a 9-3 outcome for the season? 

It's an old ass conversation around these parts, but who's your ideal candidate when M cuts loose a 9-3 Harbaugh? Because firing a guy who hasn't met your arbitrary definition of success comes with that inconvenient chore. If you're unimpressed by Michigan's wins over Washington or Wisconsin or Nebraska, let me tell you about Matt Campbell and ISU's 2021 victories. Bear in mind too that USC and LSU are going to be throwing Brink's trucks (literally doing that) at all the pretty coaches this offseason. So who's the guy if it's not Jim in 2022?

snarling wolverine

October 19th, 2021 at 10:22 PM ^

Harbaugh is 3-3 against MSU, 3-3 against PSU and 0-5 against OSU.  (That adds up to 11 losses btw.)

The MSU record might be a game worse than we’d like, but basically this statistic is about OSU, be honest.  The thing is, every B1G East coach has a terrible record against them.  James Franklin is 1-6 against them.

You forgot to note that Harbaugh is 2-5 against Nebraska and OSU!

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 7:47 AM ^

Harbaugh is 3-3 against MSU, 3-3 against PSU and 0-5 against OSU.  (That adds up to 11 losses btw.)

Good call.  I forgot we didn't play OSU last year.

The MSU record might be a game worse than we’d like, but basically this statistic is about OSU, be honest.  

I'll give JH a mulligan for the 2015 loss to MSU because they were a good team and it was a fluke. But, there's no way they should have lost in 2017 or 2020.  I'll also give JH a mulligan for the OSU losses in 2015, 2016, and 2017.  But, the last two OSU losses were terrible.  

The thing is, every B1G East coach has a terrible record against them.  James Franklin is 1-6 against them.

UM historically has not had a terrible record against OSU and I don't think you just give up because everyone does now.  It's still our rival and we still have to be competitive. 

You forgot to note that Harbaugh is 2-5 against Nebraska and OSU!

The question I was asked is why am I assuming a negative result before it's happened.  The answer is about how well we've fared against OSU, PSU, & MSU the last several years.  JH by and large has no problem beating up on the bottom half of the league, but he has historically struggled in games against quality teams.

MGoStrength

October 19th, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^

Your parenthetical indicates that you're clearly unimpressed by wins in Madison, and Lincoln at night

You're impressed by beating two teams with a combined 6-8 record?  The only FBS teams either of them have beaten are Illinois and Northwestern, the two worst teams in the B1G.

In the preseason, would you have been anything other than elated to know that Michigan would be 6-0 at this point?

Yes, but we thought Wisconsin & Washington were ranked teams.  It turns out they are not.

In your preseason prognosticating, would you not have been happy with a 9-3 outcome for the season? 

Probably, but that was a different place.  It's likely we only play three ranked teams come year's end...OSU, PSU, and MSU.  If we lose to all the ranked teams and only beat the unranked teams it doesn't sound as good.  The  schedule is easier than we thought. 

It's an old ass conversation around these parts, but who's your ideal candidate when M cuts loose a 9-3 Harbaugh?

Not sure.  I thought he deserved to get fired last year and Campbell would have been the bet.  Not sure it matters because I doubt he gets fired now.

If you're unimpressed by Michigan's wins over Washington or Wisconsin or Nebraska, let me tell you about Matt Campbell and ISU's 2021 victories

Care to broaden your time line a bit or does he not get credit for beating Oklahoma, Texas, and Oregon in 2020?

 

LeCheezus

October 20th, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^

The P5 teams were not as good as expected, but the G5 teams are significantly better than espected.  NIU and WMU are 10-2 combined outside of playing Michigan.  Are they top 40-50 teams?  Probably not, but they might beat some of the P5 teams on our schedule.

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 8:58 AM ^

The P5 teams were not as good as expected, but the G5 teams are significantly better than espected.  NIU and WMU are 10-2 combined outside of playing Michigan.  Are they top 40-50 teams?  Probably not, but they might beat some of the P5 teams on our schedule.

I'm still not sure what that proves other than he's improved from his terrible 2-4 year.  But, he's never had problems beating those types of teams other than last year.

saveferris

October 20th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^

So who's the guy if it's not Jim in 2022?

I've made this point on numerous occasions the past few years.  The usual response when you ask this question of the vocal "Fire Harbaugh" crowd is along the lines of, "that's what Warde Manuel get's paid for" rather than actual insight.  It's easy to throw stones and insist on cutting bait and go looking for the shiny new thing, but I'd caution folks against throwing out known consistency in favor of chasing a standard that may be unachievable.  For every OSU that runs a John Cooper out of town despite putting up consistent 9-10 win seasons in favor of Jim Tressel, you have a Nebraska that threw Bo Pelini to the curb only to set itself adrift in mediocrity under Mike Riley and Scott Frost.

1VaBlue1

October 20th, 2021 at 1:12 PM ^

As one of the guys that called for Harbaugh's head last year, I can comfortably say that hiring a coach - any coach - is as much a crap shoot as is making any new hire.  There is not a single person that is 'perfect' for any given job.  I mean, Harbaugh was as close to perfect for Michigan as we'll ever see!  And after last year, I was ready to try someone else.  It's not a matter of someone 'better', its a matter of someone that has a chance to be better.

In other words - if what you have isn't working, there is no sense in not trying something else.

So I didn't need to offer a name.  Neither does MGoStrength (FWIW, I think his opinion is trash in this case).  Neither does anyone else that is calling to replace coach so&so.  If you think a coach needs to be replaced, then you think the program isn't working any longer.  At that point, there's just no sense in not changing.  So you go find a coach that has a good resume, sounds good in an interview, hits some right buttons...  And you hope for the best.  Which is all anyone can ever do when making a hire.

uvadula

October 19th, 2021 at 7:38 PM ^

If this team goes 0-2 against MSU and Penn State, all this season would prove is what we already knew: Harbaugh is incredible at turning around bad teams, but can't make good teams great.

Thankfully, those games haven't happened yet, so all we as fans can do is prepare for disaster, or enjoy the small wins - which you choose is your right.

Michael Scarn

October 19th, 2021 at 10:33 PM ^

I see you have shitty takes on both pictures of kids at dinner and Jim Harbaugh.  Michigan was a dog to Vegas in Madison and basically a pick-em in Lincoln.  Tough environments, gutty wins.  The team has shown tremendous strides in nearly every phase, young talent is emerging, and the coaching staff has schemed well enough that they would be about a coin flip against most any top team in the country not named Georgia, Bama, or OSU.  

Who's coming to save the day if Jim gets fired?

Wolverrrrrrroudy

October 20th, 2021 at 6:07 AM ^

I rarely post, but I was at the OSU game in 2016.  That was a win for Harbaugh.  We won that game but for the refs.  Even their fans knew that one was over.  I would also put the MSU ending at fluky as hell and you could cut some slack there but OSU is the one that was stolen from us and from Jim Harbaugh.  It should have been game over before OT but for refs.  Now that still doesn’t equate to a great record against OSU but that game had a lot of ramifications going forward. Recruiting, psyche, etc

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 8:26 AM ^

I see you have shitty takes on both pictures of kids at dinner and Jim Harbaugh.

You are adverse to anything you perceive as negative.  All you do is defend Cade, JH, etc. from any sort of criticism.  Having criticism is not a bad thing.  It doesn't mean you don't support them.  It means there are issues that can be improved.  And, 18-22 year olds are not kids.  They are young adults.

Michigan was a dog to Vegas in Madison and basically a pick-em in Lincoln.  Tough environments, gutty wins.

We'll see if Wiscy is any good as the season wears on, but to date they don't have any meaningful wins.  Nebraska lost to Illinois & Minnesota.  They are not a good team.

The team has shown tremendous strides in nearly every phase

Again, they haven't played anybody.  They are improved from 2020, but 2-4 is not a measuring stick we should be using.  Are they any better than the 2019 team we were all frustrated about at the time?  I'd guess the locker room is better, I'm not sure the W/L record will be any better.  I'm concerned this team end the year losing 3 of its last 4 games.  

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^

I am adverse to unfounded criticisms

It's founded.  He was 2-4 last year.  He's 3-3 versus MSU.  He's 0-5 vs OSU.  He's 1-4 in bowl games.  He's never won a conference championship.  He's the only Michigan coach in like 100 years (maybe ever?) to not have a win over OSU or a winning record against MSU.  These are legitimate criticisms.  

and people who are ready to fire him if he loses 2-3 games in a rebuilding year.    

It's not just about how he finishes this year it's about his trajectory from OSU in 2018 going into this year.  During that span he was 11-10.  If he changes that this year, great.  But, he needs to do more than beat unranked teams.  He needs to finish strong with a signature win versus a team like OSU or PSU or a bowl win.  He hasn't done that since 2016.  If he can't do that 5 years in a row I think that's a problem.  5 years in a row with a poor finish is not just this year.

You still haven't answered my question - who would you hire instead?

I would have fired in after last year and hired Campbell.

Michael Scarn

October 20th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^

2-4 in a year when most every team did not look like itself.  I wonder what happens if some of your best starters don't opt out in the face of unprecedented circumstances.  If you think a pandemic year is at all indicative of coaching ability, I do not know what to tell you.

3-3 against MSU.  Not ideal, but far from a reason to fire him.

0-5 against OSU.  Historically good OSU.  The winter Harbaugh was hired OSU was winning the first ever CFP.  Not exactly even ground to get things started.  Acceptable? No.  But in context, somewhat understandable.  

Who cares about any bowls that aren't the playoff or the rose bowl?  You'd feel differently about Harbaugh if he won a few meaningless bowl games where half the starters from each team with an NFL future usually sit out these days?

Was there reason to have issue with the direction of the program over the last two years - sure.  Did Harbaugh insist he knew the right way? Cover and protect his friends on the staff?  No, he took a pay cut, completely revamped his staff, opened the door for player feedback, and by all accounts has significantly improved the culture and chemistry of the program.

Where to begin with Matt Campbell.  Let's cast aside a highly regarded alum with an NFL resume, NFL ties, getting players drafted consistently, solid if unspectacular recruiting (which should improve with the recent assistant hires), 3 10-win seasons in 6 years, winning over 70 percent of games for.....

-A coach who has literally never won 10 games

-Winning 57% of his games played

-Basically zero draft picks/NFL players

-Has not demonstrated any recruiting prowess

-Loses to rivals consistently

Harbaugh has yet to find his stud quarterback, that and some 5 star recruiting misses are the biggest contributing factors to the gap with OSU.

What could possibly make you think Campbell will recruit better, get better quarterback play, or compete more closely with OSU than Harbaugh?

And before you say "well Campbell is at Iowa State, not Michigan!" - Harbaugh's Stanford resume compares favorably to Campbell's at ISU.  Not to mention the NFL track record.

MGoStrength

October 20th, 2021 at 5:35 PM ^

2-4 in a year when most every team did not look like itself.

3-3 against MSU.  Not ideal, but far from a reason to fire him.

0-5 against OSU.  Acceptable? No.  But in context, somewhat understandable.  

Who cares about any bowls that aren't the playoff or the rose bowl? 

It sounds like you've got an excuse for everything.  

he took a pay cut, completely revamped his staff, opened the door for player feedback, and by all accounts has significantly improved the culture and chemistry of the program.

JH has never been great about keeping assistants around and I'm not convinced he'll be able to keep these ones.  I also think Hutch is as much the reason for the team chemistry this year as anything else. 

What could possibly make you think Campbell will recruit better, get better quarterback play, or compete more closely with OSU than Harbaugh?  

Brock Purdy's stats.

And before you say "well Campbell is at Iowa State, not Michigan!" - Harbaugh's Stanford resume compares favorably to Campbell's at ISU.  

That's also why many think JH is underachieving at UM.  He did more with less at Stanford.  You'd think Campbell would also be able to do more with UM's talent.  Maybe he will be able to and maybe he won't.  But, JH is not maximizing it.  I'd rather give someone else a shot.  UM has all the resources in the world.  UM practically recruits itself.  Do you really think no one else can recruit top 10-15 classes here and maximize that talent better than JH has?  Or do you just think he has the worst luck of all time?  JH's problem either can't or won't find someone to install a modern offense and develop a QB to run it. 

Michael Scarn

October 20th, 2021 at 7:43 PM ^

What you call excuses I call context.  I am not claiming Harbaugh has been the best coach we could hope for, or even that he has met expectations.  I am saying that his record is a far cry from fire-able.  You cannot ignore the dynamics in the division or the depths of hell this program was in during winter 2014.

BROCK PURDY? His stats show a mildly better Shea Patterson, oh and in the context of the fact he faces the mighty defenses of the Big 12.  Hell of a performance against Iowa in his senior year this year, completing less than half his passes, no TDs and 3 picks.  That's the type of performance that makes you think Matt Campbell is a better coach than Jim Harbaugh and can beat OSU.

And you want to give credit to Hutchinson instead of Harbaugh for culture, a player that Harbaugh recruited. Nevermind the fact that McCarthy, Anthony, and Edwards are already setting the tone for the future on work ethic.  Nevermind players consistently saying how much they like working with the new assistants, spending more time with them, feel more supported by them, and feeling like their coaches take their feedback, including Harbaugh.  Nevermind the beloved 9 on 7 drill, or playing music at practice, nope, just one guy, and after he leaves it will evaporate.  Aidan Hutchinson surely won't rub off on any other players.

Harbaugh needed to rebuild the foundation of the program.  It took longer than many would like or hope, and there were hiccups (and successes) along the way.  For me, 9-10 wins consistently, with a great year every 3-4 years is exactly what is reasonable to expect at Michigan in the immediate future.   Things will get a lot more interesting as the playoff expands.

MGoStrength

October 21st, 2021 at 7:47 AM ^

You cannot ignore the dynamics in the division or the depths of hell this program was in during winter 2014.

JH inherited the 9th most talented roster in the nation.  That's also significantly more talented than the roster he's had the last two years which he built.

BROCK PURDY? His stats show a mildly better Shea Patterson

And yet Purdy is about 839 spots behind Shea on the recruiting composite rankings.  I'd say that's a job well done to Campbell and/or not maximizing the potential of Shea by JH.  FWIW Shea's numbers were quite a bit better than two other years of UM QBs under JH.

Harbaugh needed to rebuild the foundation of the program.  It took longer than many would like or hope, and there were hiccups (and successes) along the way.  For me, 9-10 wins consistently, with a great year every 3-4 years is exactly what is reasonable to expect at Michigan in the immediate future.   Things will get a lot more interesting as the playoff expands.

When is that great year coming?  Does it include an OSU victory or a conference championship?  Or is 10-3 and 2nd in the division with a bowl loss the great year?  You also forgot to include the two years he had a combined 9-9 record (2017 & 2020).

Michael Scarn

October 21st, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^

I have already made clear I agree he hasn't met expectations.  My point is he has set up the program to meet those expectations now, and its important to keep in mind what those expectations should reasonably be.

Again, you cite Brock Purdy's stats but ignore the fact its the Big 12 he's racking those up in.  

I did not ignore any years.  7-5 is failing to meet expectations.  Last year was a clear anomaly.  Fine, if there's ever another global pandemic that virtually shuts down the country, in that case, I'd love to have Matt Campbell at the helm...

MGoStrength

October 22nd, 2021 at 7:36 AM ^

I have already made clear I agree he hasn't met expectations.  My point is he has set up the program to meet those expectations now, and its important to keep in mind what those expectations should reasonably be.

So, you recognize he has disappointed and not lived up to expectations, but are willing to give him a mulligan for his mis-steps because you believe he's still a top HC and he has turned the program around this year and hired the right assistants.  I however believe that he is a turnaround specialist, believe there's evidence he can't keep this staff or it's dynamics in place, and he's never beating OSU without Andrew Luck which he is not likely to find again because his offense is handcuffing his ability to take advantage of his talent, and there are other coaches that can put together a staff that can recruit as well, but get better results.

I hope you're right.  Either way I think I've given enough evidence and support for my take that it didn't warrant you calling it "shitty".

stephenrjking

October 19th, 2021 at 10:51 PM ^

I wanted Harbaugh gone after last year, too. Most of my reservations remain unanswered.

But Michigan is not USC and does not fire guys at the drop of the hat. And they've made the decision to stay with Harbaugh, but with a strong strategic initiative to utilize young assistants. 

And now they've integrated the strategy... and it's working pretty well so far. 

This is not a year to win a national title. This is a year for growth. So, if the team has demonstrated real progress, and it gets the guys back next year, and the players are on board with the new staff... you absolutely roll with them. 

I think 9-3 is a real possibility, and that would be very disappointing at this point; I also think that, if Harbaugh can keep the locker room (which is where the revamped staff appears to be key) and keep the team pointed to next year, the offense we field next year could be amazing. Or it could be another Harbaugh special, but he deserves a chance to prove what he can do if the upward trend continues. 

9-3 isn't great, but it's fine. It's a rebuild year. Our top WR is out for the year and we expect him back. Our 5-star QB may not yet be the guy this year but we can only assume that he'll be ready next year. Corum. Edwards. Good pieces for the OL. 

It's all about growth and trend here. Positive trends, growth, enthusiasm... those draw recruits. Those propogate winning.