Two of college football's five or so most iconic brands will do battle on New Year's Day 2024 in the sport's most iconic venue, Michigan and Alabama in the Rose Bowl Game. The Wolverines seeking to win their first national championship in a quarter century, Alabama looking to add to the greatest dynasty of all time. No shortage of narratives to discuss in the run up to this year's CFP game and it's my job to introduce the Alabama offense, a unit with a new QB this season and a high degree of variability. 

 

The Film: Running with the SEC Championship Game since Alabama played Georgia, in my view the best opponent they played all season. Also it happens to be the most recent game... convenient! I'm also going to use some of the Texas tape, since that was Alabama's other game against a truly elite team, and the contrast from early September to early December can give us a few clues into how much this Alabama team has grown. There may be some clips from other games as well but the main charting is from the Georgia game in Atlanta. 

Personnel: Click for big. 

Alabama's new QB for the 2023 season eventually turned out to be Jalen Milroe, following an exceptionally messy QB competition that saw Alabama start Tyler Buchner against USF and their offense crumbled. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees' familiarity with Buchner probably played a role in why the QB competition went on as long as it did, and I imagine Milroe's unpredictability and occasional ugly decisions scared the staff some. However, make no mistake, this competition should never have lasted that long. Milroe has his downsides, which we will discuss, but he's a vastly better QB than Buchner and a player with immense talents, tremendous athleticism, and a great arm. He's a dual threat passer and has taken 'Bama to heights they could never have reached with Buchner. 

The Crimson Tide lost 2022 star Jahmyr Gibbs to the Detroit Lions of the NFL in the offseason, but returned the #2-4 backs from last season, Jase McClellan, Roydell Williams, and Jamarion Miller. McClellan is their leading rusher in yards and attempts, though he missed the Georgia game I charted with a foot injury (status for New Year's Day is unclear). Williams got the start and looked just fine in his place. I don't think these RBs are monsters on the level of a Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram, Najee Harris, etc. but they are all good players. Not incredible, not getting the star, but nothing wrong with any of them either.  

The WRs are a number of the same players from last year, with 2022's leading WR Jermaine Burton (a one-time Georgia transfer who played Michigan in the 2021 CFP) returning for this season and has blossomed into a star. Watching Bond's 9 catch, 197 yard, 2 TD toasting of Texas A&M back in early October was the moment I knew he had arrived and got the mental star in my mind. Isaiah Bond has seen his production uptick significantly over last year, leaping well in front of Kobe Prentice on the depth chart. Bond caught the answered prayer against Auburn and leads the team in catches (Burton leads in yards), a tick below star status for me but quite dangerous. Both Burton and Bond are around 6', while Prentice is the 5'10" slot, only 17 catches compared to 31 last season. I don't have too many notes on him. Malik Benson has 13 catches as a rotational outside receiver, actually appearing more than Prentice, while Kendrick Law is a slot receiver who lines up in the backfield a decent amount and is used quite a bit as a blocker or to run shallow crossing routes. 

Alabama has used 12 and 13 personnel quite a bit this season, with three TEs who all have more snaps on offense than their third-most used WR (Benson). Those TEs are Maryland transfer CJ Dippre, blocker Robbie Ouzts, and flex receiver Amari Niblack. Dippre is the most balanced tight end of the three in terms of responsibility, some receiving and some blocking, but his PFF grades have been lackluster and he only has 9 catches on the year. Ouzts is a pure blocking tight end, heavily utilized on rushing plays and acts as a fullback on some of Alabama's inside zone concepts, with only three catches on the season. Niblack is the opposite of Ouzts, a flex TE who rarely blocks but does damage as a receiver. The 6'4" sophomore Niblack has 19 catches for 321 yards and 4 TDs on the season, second on the team in all three categories.  

The 'Bama offensive line got quite a bit of heat early in the season for being well below the program standard and while I think they are still a bit down for the typical Alabama OL (which normally is laced with NFL-ready studs), it isn't bad. The strength of the OL is on the right side in your author's view, RT JC Latham being a projected first round pick by most scouting services in this upcoming NFL Draft. Next to him is RG Jaedan Roberts, who gets the star for a strong showing against Georgia. The other half of the line isn't quite as sharp, with its biggest weakness at C, where Seth McLaughlin has had issues blocking and snapping this season, earning him a cyan circle. The left side of the line is notable for its youth and inexperience, LG Tyler Booker being a true sophomore and LT Kadyn Proctor a true freshman(!!). Proctor has had the wobbles you'd expect and I think is a vulnerability for Michigan to target, but hasn't been bad enough to be cyan'd. Booker has been pretty good and was close to star status. As a line they are better run blocking than pass blocking. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The Jalen Milroe Experience]

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Alabama is a spread offense operating entirely out of the shotgun, save for specific situations. I charted four under center snaps for the Tide offense and two of them were 3rd & 1/4th & 1 (tempo sneak and then HB dive) and the other two were goal line from the 1 (sneak and HB dive). Otherwise it was all gun: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	32	4	24	47%
Under Center	4	-	-	53%

They use tight ends plenty but line them out wide a decent amount and 11 personnel with the TE flexed is a pretty common formation.

Their play distribution by down shows a coherent picture, running on first down, even split on second, and throwing on third down: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	22	7
2nd	11	10
3rd	2	10
4th	1	1

Bama's success running the football against Georgia allowed them to ride that pretty hard on first downs and feel good about it. 

Base set: Alabama was probably the most interesting team for formations that I've charted all season. They play out of 11 personnel a decent and when they do, sometimes it's the TE flexed for a four wide look: 

And other times it's much more typical: 

The one wrinkle in 11 personnel is how much they like to line up Kendrick Law in the backfield next to Milroe and the RB: 

Interestingly, they used 13 about as much as 12 personnel as their multiple TE sets against Georgia. Here's one variation of 13: 

Two TEs to the bottom of the formation and that's Amari Niblack to the top lined up like a WR (mostly because he's more of a Funchess TE than a true TE). 

12 personnel tends to look pretty typical: 

Gap or zone blocking: [NOTE: We are re-naming this section "Gap or zone blocking" instead of its old "basketball on grass vs. Manball" title because it was too confusing and too often becomes an area of debate in the comment section]

Alabama was a pretty mixed team. They ran a lot of inside zone as a base play but mixed in Duo as well as a sort of changeup play. There was also a lot of gap stuff, counter their favorite but also power. Building off of this, Alabama ran tons of misdirection, for example having the OL/TE run counter going one way and then a WR in jet motion and perhaps Milroe running the other way. A ton of variety in run concepts against Georgia for the Crimson Tide, so they don't really fit into either category. They are both a gap and zone team from what I saw in the SEC Championship Game.  

Hurry it up or grind it out: Alabama moved at a pretty deliberate pace against Georgia and peppered in a decent bit of tempo, one of the faster moving teams I've charted this season. I charted a half-dozen tempo snaps against the Bulldogs and they liked to get up to the line pretty quickly no matter what, whether they were hiking it right away or waiting for instructions. Michigan will have to be ready for Bama to go up-tempo. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Jalen Milroe is nearly as dangerous as a runner as he is as a passer... to PFF, he's better as a runner (87.4 run grade vs. 80.8 pass grade). Milroe is an athletic quarterback who has the advantage of being built like a tank, 6'2" and 220 lbs., allowing him to lower the shoulder and survive contact better than a number of the mobile QBs Michigan has seen this season. Milroe's abilities as a runner were used by Alabama to ice the game against the Dawgs: 

The explosiveness and athleticism displayed by Milroe here pop off the screen. Not just is he dangerous in the bowling ball way, but Milroe can put on the jets and hurt you. Designed Milroe runs feature prominently for Alabama and they use fake pitches and fake gives quite often too: 

Having a mobile QB who is a serious threat doesn't just delete a defender in the rushing game, but it necessitates the need for a spy in the passing game, deleting another defender. Georgia actually ran multiple 3 man rushes with two spies to contain Milroe's scrambly tendencies. We will get into this more when we talk about Milroe as a passer, but he has a tendency to hang onto the ball a long time before eventually bailing and scrambling. The QB spies you put on him have to be patient. If you don't aggressively spy him (either leaving no one to do the job or the LBs dropping too deep), he will hurt you: 

Georgia did a very good job containing his scrambling, rendering it mostly neutral by dedicating attention to Milroe's legs. I charted him for one positive scramble play and it was picking up a first down on a 2nd & 2 for only a couple yards. Nothing damaging. Georgia's plan to take away his scrambling worked, but of course it hurt their ability to get after him in the way of pass rush. That's the trade-off. 

The downside (for Alabama) of Milroe's athletic gifts and willingness to scramble is he has some -15 yard sacks that look an awful lot like Taulia Tagovailoa. This one was a devastating sack that knocked 'Bama out of FG range (ignore him getting up and running, he was correctly down by contact on replay): 

If Milroe simply throws it away or goes down when he sees the pressure come, 'Bama would have a manageable fourth down opportunity or a long FG to choose from. Instead, he instinctually tries to start scrambling, can't outrun this one, and sacks them out of FG range. On a lighter note for the Alabama fans reading this, his ability to extend plays and throw on the run can be a dandy: 

His play extending isn't all good (more on that in a bit), but there are moments where it looks incredible. 

Wrapping all of this up, I'm giving Jalen Milroe a 10 out of 10 on our scale. He is an exceptionally talented runner, the best mobile QB Michigan will see this season and the most dangerous mobile QB I have charted since I started doing this in September 2021. Milroe has some of the best moments of Taulia and Sean Clifford but with a body to take on contact like Vince Young and the wheels to back it up. It gets him in trouble sometimes and leads to bad sacks and some of his worst moments as a passer, but it is also a devastating asset that defenses must build their entire gameplan around. You cannot let Milroe's legs beat you because he will gladly do so if you let him. 

Dangerman: For this honor, we're going with WR Jermaine Burton. As I mentioned in the personnel section, Burton's performance against Texas A&M caught my eye: 

Burton is incredibly dangerous as a vertical threat and has shown some sizzle as a contested catch artist, which you can see in that video. Against Texas, he ripped open the Longhorn defense deep and hauled in a bomb for a score: 

Burton wasn't as impactful against Georgia, but he did beat Malachi Starks down the field and the underthrown ball by Milroe triggered a DPI call: 

His best catch of this game was also on one of Milroe's best throws, a laser into a tight window that Burton made a very nice catch on despite harassment from the DB: 

Burton isn't Marvin Harrison Jr. and he's had a choppy collegiate career, but he's really thrived this season and is the player, outside of Milroe, I would be most worried about if I am Jesse Minter. Expect to see Burton vs. Will Johnson as a key matchup in the Rose Bowl. 

HenneChart: From Jalen Milroe's legs we move to his right arm, which has been a bit more all over the place this season. Against Georgia Milroe was 13/23 for 192 yards and 2 TDs, no interceptions. There were some great moments and some very bad moments and I will show you it all, but first the HenneChart: 

Alabama vs. UGA	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Jalen Milroe	2	9	1		4	2		-	-	4	3		63%	-

Jalen Milroe's made some really big throws to help the Crimson Tide win the SEC, but there were also some moments of real vulnerability for Michigan to exploit. I gave him the star because he's still been a pretty efficient passer this year and his legs are so dangerous, but this is not exactly CJ Stroud 2.0. Milroe is not yet an NFL-level passer and has a ways to go to get there in your author's view. 

The good from Milroe is he does have a big time arm that can get the ball down the field. If you recall the 4th & 31 miracle against Auburn, that was a terrific throw. The bomb to Burton against Texas I showed you is another example. He's got plenty of zip on the ball and that laser to Burton against UGA I clipped in the Dangerman section in the end zone was also an example of that. There is some genuinely tremendous stuff from Milroe and he's normally pretty accurate on his shorter throws too. Example: 

However, Milroe's accuracy wavered a bit down the field. Here he's got Prentice open and misses him: 

But the bigger and most concerning issue with Milroe's play is the one that haunted him in the Texas game. Against the Longhorns he threw two hideous interceptions that exposed his troubles reading defenses. Not what you want: 

Also bad: 

Milroe's performance against Texas looked like it could destroy Alabama's season but he was able to steer his play in the right direction, which is why I was so interested in watching him against Georgia, a chance to measure how much he had grown. What I saw was some degree of growth but the primary issue "reading a defense" is still very much there. Milroe making terrible decisions has receded in number, but there were still glimmering signs. This is a debacle: 

This is supposed to be a running play, but Milroe bails on the idea when his blocking isn't there, tries to throw and nearly gets intercepted. Because it was supposed to be a rushing play, one of his linemen is 10 yards downfield, so an ineligible man flag is thrown as well, but the near-interception is the brush with disaster. 

His first throw of the game seemed to be a miscommunication and nearly ended up in the hands of a Georgia safety: 

But as a bigger concern than interceptable throws is the glacial pace that it takes Milroe to get through his reads. Like I put in the Dilithium scale section, Milroe hangs onto the ball a loooooooong time, which eventually allows the pass rush to get home and leads to himself sacking himself. Some of those you can credibly argue are coverage sacks, but I would argue that Milroe just takes a long time to get through his reads. Here's an example of the success Georgia had making him stay in the pocket and read the defense: 

I'm not an expert at figuring out the QB reads, and in some cases you can't fully tell, but it certainly feels like Milroe takes a long time to recognize open receivers before making a decision and the time that elapses is a critical advantage for the defense. He may have cut down on his ugly decisions (though some are still there), but that time it takes to read a defense can be used to drum up sacks or induce Milroe into scrambling into trouble. 

Overall, I'd describe Jalen Milroe as a good college QB with a lot of things to like but some clear weaknesses. His athleticism and mobility is a huge weapon that he is happy to utilize and his arm is capable of making game-breaking throws. Milroe could very easily put together a performance that wins Alabama the Rose Bowl because his talent is considerable, but at this point in time, Milroe's occasional battles with accuracy wobbles and his struggles reading a defense provide a clear window into how to beat him.

Georgia settled on keeping Milroe in the pocket by not sending the EDGEs aggressively after him and using 1-2 spies on every dropback, which was highly successful. It forced Milroe to stay in the pocket and read the defense, something Milroe proved only okay at doing. The result was 56.5% completion at 8.3 Y/A. The longest pass Georgia allowed was a wheel route they declined to cover (you'll see it later) due to a coverage bust from true freshman LB (and one-time Michigan commit Raylen Wilson), which you can't really chalk up to Milroe. Subtract that play and the Y/A drops to 7.4. Georgia did a good job limiting Milroe and bottling up the Alabama passing attack and provided a clear blueprint for victory. If only the Dawgs could've stopped the bleeding on a couple drives and defended the run a little bit better... 

 

Overview

Since they went to Jalen Milroe full-time after the USF game, Alabama has had quite a bit of offensive success, raising their SP+ ranking on offense all the way up to 11th. They crested 5.0 yards per play in every game for nine straight weeks before facing Georgia as evidence of that. Their best performance was 7.3 YPP against LSU’s terrible defense, but generally had good success against everyone, before a dip down to 4.8 YPP against Georgia.

Though Alabama was able to win that game, they did not have a sensational offensive performance, and Georgia's defensive blueprint is fairly instructive for Michigan. They held Alabama to 306 yards and 27 points and if anything, it felt like Georgia was unlucky to give up that many points. The story of this matchup between the 'Bama offense and the Georgia defense was how Alabama was able to stack their best plays on top of each other in big drives, while largely being stuck in the mud for multiple possessions on end otherwise. 

The Alabama-Georgia game was something like a baseball game in which one team only gets five hits but because all five hits are in a row, they do pretty well on the scoreboard. Consider the Alabama-Georgia game versus the Michigan-Ohio State game from 2021. Ohio State and Alabama both scored 27 points and didn’t turn the ball over, but Ohio State scored 27 points on over 450 yards of offense… Alabama on just 308 yards. Alabama maximized their yardage by putting all their best plays on the same drives and then had a bunch of futility. Drive chart: 

• 3 plays, -2 yards, punt 
• 3 plays, 6 yards, punt
• 8 plays, 26 yards, FG 
• 10 plays, 92 yards, TD
• 9 plays, 69 yards, TD 
• 3 plays, 2 yards, punt 
• 8 plays, 30 yards, punt
• 3 plays, 1 yard, FG 
• 3 plays, 3 yards, punt 
• 9 plays, 75 yards, TD 
• 6 plays, 40 yards, end of game  

Out of 11 drives, five three-and-outs and two drives that lasted eight plays but failed to surpass 30 yards of offense. Their three TD drives combined for 77% of the yards they gained in that game. If Georgia had been a little bit sharper in the red zone, forcing more field goals, and not turned it over/handed Bama points through field position, they’d probably have won. 

Which is why I say it’s a useful blueprint. We’ve already talked about the passing game quite a bit by breaking down Milroe and Burton, but now it's time to talk about Isaiah Bond. He might not be quite as good as Jermaine Burton, but he’s pretty close and has a chance to cause Michigan some real headaches. Bond was a hero of the Auburn game with the prayer catch in the end zone, and he made a few plays against Georgia, including this gigantic fourth down: 

Gene Steratore was livid that it was ruled a catch and there was definitely some ambiguity based on the replay, but credit Bond for putting himself in position to make that catch. Was not an easy ball and he gave himself a chance to get the benefit of the doubt on the field. If he doesn’t come up with it, Georgia wins the game (in my opinion). Outside of that, his game against Georgia was mostly crossing routes or sitting down in the zone over the middle for chunks, but he did bring in this insane shovel pass from Milroe: 

The biggest difference between Alabama’s offense and George’s offense, which I explained in a mailbag a few weeks back, is the tight end position. Georgia boasts star TE Brock Bowers, who the entire offense is built around, whereas Alabama doesn’t have the same level of weapons. Maryland transfer CJ Dippre is mostly just a guy (worse than that if you go off his PFF grade) and didn’t stand out against Georgia. He made one catch on 3rd & forever well short of the sticks and that was it. Robbie Ouzts is just a blocker, while Amari Niblack is the opposite, lining up more outside and only being used as a receiver. He did have a nice catch wrestling a possible INT away from a defender: 

Niblack is talented but I’m just not that worried about him. We saw Michael Barrett go up against Cade Stover, who’s the same height as Niblack and a little bit thicker, and cover him just fine. I also think Stover is a better and more complete tight end as a general view. Perhaps there’s some concern about Niblack moving in space better than Stover but overall Michigan's coverage against tight ends this season has been fine. Bowers would’ve been a concern because he’s a mutant but Niblack is not; he’s average. Niblack has 19 catches in 13 games, a piece on the scouting report but not a focal point you have to be panicked about. 

Similar story with the running backs, Alabama does throw to the running backs, but not as much as they did when they had Jahmyr Gibbs. Their running backs have combined for 27 catches in 13 games, so just slightly more than two per game and most of them are check downs on short routes. They’re not a feature of the passing attack, although they did have one big play against Georgia, this wheel route that the Dawgs did not cover: 

Nice little rub on the LB and then it’s over for the defense. It’s in the playbook, you have to be on the lookout for it, but not at the top of the scouting report. TEs and RBs are changeups in the passing attack, while most of the targets go to Bond or Burton, or some of the other outside WRs like Kobe Prentice or Khalil Benson. 

As for the protection, I like Alabama’s offensive line more as a run blocking line than a pass blocking line. The biggest weakness it has is it is a young line, particularly two spots with left tackle Kadyn Proctor and center Seth McLaughlin. If you scroll back to the shovel pass clip, you’ll see that the pressure comes from those two spots on the line, forcing Milroe to make that incredible play. The rest of the line is better but there were still moments that protection popped up, like this play where it’s the right side of the line at fault: 

An issue they’ve had on the line this season is the snapping, with McLaughlin having problems hiking the ball accurately all year long. Sometimes it’s too low, sometimes too high, or too early, it’s been a mess. Most of the time the mistakes don’t turn into disaster, like they did on the snap that went way wide of Milroe against Auburn leading to the 4th & 31, but they still cost Alabama here and there. Look at this play: 

Snap is low and it’s a bit too early. The rest of the OL isn’t ready, a free rusher gets around Proctor, Milroe has to hurry and throw for a receiver who isn’t open. Play is burned. A few of those in the Rose Bowl is probably Alabama’s best-case scenario for this snapping problem. Worst case is it leads to a turnover. I seriously doubt it will be fixed in one month. 

Another consequence of Alabama’s OL is the line calls and general communication. Several times in the Georgia game the Dawgs were able to get pressure on Milroe because of unblocked rushers, blitzes not being identified and picked up by this young line and first-year starting QB. If Minter gets tricky and comes up with disguised pressures, I think they can have some real success in this game. 

As a run blocking line, I think Alabama is pretty good and that’s where they won the game against UGA. It’s worth pointing out that Georgia is not the run blocking line they once were, going from a line where the DTs are 85-90 PFF grade 1st round monsters to 65-75 meh/good players. Against that defensive front, Alabama had some major success. Their first TD drive was ground ‘n pound: 

 

This one is the right side of the line with Jaedan Roberts and JC Latham (who I both like) paving the Dawgs on a tempo run: 

Their gap stuff had success too: 

It wasn’t a total domination on the ground by any means, but Alabama had enough sustained success at key moments on the ground that it marched them down the field and gave them the points they needed to win. Tommy Rees reached into his bag a few times with misdirection concepts that didn’t really work because UGA had them sniffed out: 

But Michigan should watch the tape and be ready for them because Bama gets tricky. I mentioned all their formation weirdness earlier in this piece, so there's a huge variety of concepts to be prepared for. Thankfully Michigan has a month to study up. 

As a general statement about the rushing attack, I felt that the success they had against Georgia was mostly a matter of 1.) having a rushing QB to delete a defender in the box and 2.) the offensive line more than the RBs. The RBs who played in that game, Miller and Roydell Williams, looked plenty competent, but I was never stunned at their awesome prowess. Williams would hit his hole, power forward, and get the yards given to him and maybe grind out one extra. Jase McClellan didn't play against Georgia but I presume will be ready for the Rose Bowl and is a good player himself: 

But if we're again comparing Alabama 2023 to Alabama teams of old, it doesn't quite feel like McClellan or Williams are on the level of your Mark Ingrams, Eddie Lacys, Najee Harrises, or of course, Derrick Henrys. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

Like I've said throughout this piece, there is a pathway to success for Michigan that Georgia has provided. In the pass game, Michigan should aim to keep Milroe in the pocket by going back to their well of DL tactics that once worked on Sean Clifford, spies + EDGEs knowing that they have to keep the pocket closed off and DTs staying in their rush lanes. I do like the potential for Michigan's tackles to get some organic rush especially against McLaughlin the center, but you have to accept there will be times that Milroe has all day to throw, but that's a trade-off I'm mostly willing to take based on what I have seen from him reading a defense.

Jesse Minter needs to be ready by mixing in blitzes that give this young and inexperienced line some trouble and the variety of coverages Minter has, more expansive than seemingly every other coordinator, at face value appear to be the kind of thing that would give Milroe problems. The matchup of Josh Wallace against Isaiah Bond is just as big as Jermaine Burton and Will Johnson, but if they can hold their own, mixed with the varied coverages and designed pressures, there should be enough going on on every play to slow Alabama's offense down and get off the field. 

In the rushing game it's a matter of Bama's IOL matching up against Michigan's DTs. If Graham/Grant/Jenkins/Benny can win those battles with better consistency than Georgia did (Michigan's DTs are higher graded than UGA's), then Michigan is in good position to have success defensively. If you force Alabama to play out of 3rd & long, you put more on the shoulders of a passer who hasn't been the most sure of himself. But it won't just be about the DTs because Alabama's run concepts are so varied. Michigan has to be ready for misdirection, sweeps, reverses, all sorts of stuff, but the battles will be won up front. And more than anything, tackling will be pivotal against a team as athletic and strong as Alabama, especially tackling on Milroe.