Real Opponents Don't Cost Much Comment Count

Brian

sanford-stadiumdollar-and-change-by-xandert-400x266

Georgia; approximately how much Georgia costs per game

When I hit up the UM Club of Greater Detroit's kickoff luncheon on Monday for a panel discussion with Greg Dooley of MVictors and Angelique Chengelis of the News, one of the questions was less a question than a rant about how lame nonconference schedules are. The ranter got a wave of applause before Greg and Angelique played Debbie Downer, saying that it just wasn't feasible to go on the road in our modern fast-paced football environment.

This argument has always stuck in my craw a bit. I don't think the monetary difference is that significant.

Scenario 1: two bodybag games. You get two full Michigan Stadiums and pay out about two million. Tickets are $70.

Scenario 2: home and home with real opponent. You get one full Michigan Stadium. This is a premium game so tickets are $85.

PSLs are held constant no matter the number of games, so the extra revenue from scenario one is

107k * 55 – 2m = $3.9 million

There are some ancillaries that might change that equation. Concessions, merchandising, from football added about a million dollars to the AD's coffers in 2004, when there were six home games. The extra game might add 160k from those sources. Increased TV rights would reduce that, but who knows how much they are and when I talked to the SID a few years ago he mentioned that all TV revenues, even nonconference games, are split with the Big Ten. A home and home with a real opponent might help sell suites when it's an ND/OSU/Nebraska away season, increase donations, make the university more famous, etc.

There are a lot of hard to calculate benefits from scheduling real teams. Let's just call it a wash. We're about to see it doesn't really matter.

Michigan needs to make up $3.9 million in two years if they're going to schedule a home and home. This is how much that adds on to the cost of an individual game ticket those two years:

$2.59

That's it. Two bucks and change. About twenty bucks a season. I wonder what the numbers would be if Michigan let the ticketholders vote on a $2.59 surcharge for two years in exchange for scheduling a home and home with Georgia. I'm thinking it would be Reagan-Mondale.

[UPDATE: Qs about the math. I used 55 to get to $3.9 because 70 + 70 – 85 = 55. I got to $2.59 by dividing $3.9 million by 107k, then 14. If I'm off by a bit I'm off—this is just spitballing. Does it really matter if it's two bucks or three? ]

Comments

M-Wolverine

August 31st, 2011 at 2:43 PM ^

To raise ticket prices by $2.50, make an added $4 mil, and still keep the crappy schedule, so it becomes $8 mil.

(I kid. I'm sure he's come up with that on his own).

CRex

August 31st, 2011 at 2:43 PM ^

Dropping 70 on random Michigan directional schools does have its charm though.  Ensures the locals are properly cowed when I travel throughout the state.  I'm all for giving the other cupcakes the heave ho though.

Also I imagine being able to tell recruits we play prime time, marque games in Sept instead of "Place you never heard of and will never go" has to sell better.  It definitely enhances my loyalty as a fan.  The smart decision isn't always the one that makes you most money.

BlueDragon

August 31st, 2011 at 5:08 PM ^

Fear of this battle station.  That said, it's nice to help maintain cultural ties with the directional schools.  Plenty of our guys know plenty of their guys and all that.  I'm looking forward to the expanded Big Ten schedule coming up though, I might spring for 3 games a few years down the road.

umfan323

August 31st, 2011 at 2:48 PM ^

What I believe it comes down to is wins and losses.... You do whatever it takes to make your team bowl eligible and if beating on a terrible team helps you get to those 6 or 7 wins that make you bowl eligible then you do it... Granted it would be nice to see a Alabama or LSU come to A2 but in the long run what does it do ???

M-Wolverine

August 31st, 2011 at 2:54 PM ^

The Big Ten got tougher with Nebraska, and an added championship game if you want to be a contender, as well as moving to 9 conference games. When no one else is doing it, why would you hamper your BCS chances if you're upper tier, or bowl chances if you're lower tier?  Everyone says "I want to see good games, and take on all comers", but the fine print to that is ("....as long as we win all the games").  How many other teams are playing a great match up, AND a Notre Dame in the OOC?

Which is what it really comes down to. People are tired of ND, and want to see some else more sexy.  You won't see ND and someone else good too often (particularly anymore), but if ND was replaced with a rotation of Georgia, and USC, and Texas, would be be satisfied?

Frankly, I'd rather go back to the where we played some good team (ND or someone else if they were off the schedule), one middle of the road team (UCLA level, or in this day and age, at least lower level BCS), and one bad team (now two with the extra game). But you won't get the bad teams (like Maryland used to serve as) willing to go places without a return date anymore. I mean we're going back to U-Conn, for gosh's sakes.  If that's the parameters, you might as well play the creampuff.

BlueVoix

August 31st, 2011 at 3:00 PM ^

Yeah pretty sure this is exactly why we see directionals/FCS teams come to Ann Arbor.  As much as everyone crows for big time non-conference games, everyone also wants their team to be successful.  Pretty hard to do that when you play a full conference slate and three or four tough conference opponents.  Hell, we get two tough conference opponents this year; I'll enjoy the marginally less difficult match-ups against Western and Eastern.  Knock on wood.

AAB

August 31st, 2011 at 4:07 PM ^

I'm a grad who pretty much went to the school because of the football team.  

Obviously I wasn't happy that Oregon beat the shit out of Michigan, but the way they did it was fairly awe-inspiring (i.e., if you'd watched that offense against any other team, you would have thought "this is really cool.").  College football is supposed to be entertaining, and Oregon's offense that day was insanely entertaining.  

SMFH58

September 1st, 2011 at 7:53 AM ^

I agree, I am a Michigan Fan and a Grad and I am also a Football Fan. Yeah I want Michigan to go to a top tier bowl every year. However, if they have to play "Little Sisters of the Poor" in order to get to the bowl I am not interested. It was not that long ago that only one team from the Big Ten (and one from the Pac 10) went to a bowl and the bowl games actually meant something. I am very excited for the 9 conference game requirement and would like to see Michigan have nothing else but home and home games with quality opponents. The way to make college football even more exciting is to play regular season games with meaning and avoid the "cupcakes". I will take this over the playoffs everyone is screaming for.

wolverine1987

August 31st, 2011 at 3:56 PM ^

totally disagree, and the vast majority of the fanbase would IMO as well. When all the Michigan Man, doing it the right way, tradition, biggest stadium etc talk is very meaningful and important, the most importat factor in Michgan's program is success. Playing those 4 teams, or 4 just like it, every year is a recipe for a maximum victory total of 7-8 every year and maybe an 18 ranking or so. You would feel proud of that I assume from the comment, and we would also get credit from the media for playing such a tough schedule, But that is a recipe for a permanent second tier program, because ranking, wins, and the type of bowl game you play in matters in college football. It also matters in recruiting--far more than "we play the toughest schedule in football" matters. In the 70's when we became an elite program again, we played a schedule with far less toughness to it than the one we play today, BTW.

AAB

August 31st, 2011 at 3:59 PM ^

This is admittedly entirely selfish on my part.  I have more fun following college football when Michigan is playing really good football teams (the week leading up to it, all the columns about the game, Gameday, the vibe in the stadium, etc.).  I am horribly jealous of OSU fans who get to see OSU play teams like Texas and USC and Miami year after year, just because that seems really fun.  

WolvinLA2

August 31st, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^

But that's because they don't have ND.  They have one tough game every year (sometimes not that tough, sometimes really tough) and we have ND every year, who is sometimes not that tough and sometimes really tough.  The cool part about ND is that it's an established rivaly with fanbases that hate each other.  The cool part about OSU's deal is that it's a different team every two years.  But it basically comes down to a wash.  I'd be fine with a home and home if we took a two year break from ND, but I don't want to permanently kill the ND rivarly to play a team with equal prestige and less history, and I don't want to play ND and a big time team because ND is about to be really good again and I don't want to go 2-2 in non-conference games.

We play in a tough conference plus ND every year.  That's a solid schedule.

08mms

August 31st, 2011 at 5:19 PM ^

Exactly.  Plus, remembering back to those days of old when Michigan had a meaningful AP ranking, you end up getting into the other great games around the country to see how the teams you beat measure up and hope the teams ahead of you slip down.  Man I miss those days.

Blue in Seattle

August 31st, 2011 at 4:58 PM ^

I think everyone is forgetting that in the 70's it was the Big 2 Little 8 primarily because the NCAA limited how many teams got to be on TV.  OSU and Michigan of course got the Lion's share of that TV exposure.  That TV exposure has a direct effect on recruiting, which of course has a direct effect on the team talent, and of course supports the continued existence of the Big 2 over the Little 8.  This changed when the NCAA was sued and the Supreme Court gave the individual universities the right to negotiate their own TV deals.  This happened for the 1984 season.  I think this was also very close to the time when they began reducing scholarships from 105 to 95 to eventually the 85 they are at now.  I think the 85 final total happened about 1990, essentially just after Bo retired.

During the Bo era, the non-conference games were almost all tough.  That's because if you wanted to be on TV the most, you had to play other key teams that were getting on TV, since the NCAA restricted the amount per team, trying to keep exposure equal amongst teams, but of course failing.  This is a big reason why the OSU-Michigan game is so well known as a Rivalry.  It was one of the constant matchups on TV every season, broadcast to a national audience.

One of (the only?) compaints about Bo was that he did not have a good win percentage in bowl games and did not win the national championship (I guess that's two).  It came from the fact that Michigan played a tough non-conference schedule, and the non-conference schedule was in the beginning of the year.  Basically the time when your new players are just getting sorted out.  This was why Bo didn't care about the polls.  The non-conference part of the season was exhibition.  It didn't count toward the Championship.  It only mattered to the voting and thus the newspapers.  He cared about winning the Big Ten and then rewarding his team with a trip to somewhere warm after Christmas.  I'm not saying Bo didn't prepare and try to win non-conference games and bowl games.  I'm saying that he didn't place as much emphasis on them.

Now of course the pressures are different.  Scholarship numbers are lower, TV exposure is broader (why haven't we heard about Boise State until after 1984?  TCU? it's the open TV market!) and revenues beyond ticket sales are becoming a bigger piece of the pie.  So I don't think things are as simple as Brian is stating in this post.  Nor do I think the that the players want to have more tough games than they do now.  Afterall, most of their statistics come from playing inferior talent.  And the guys who exist as the backup squad for 4 years only get a chance to play during the cup cake games.

Considering that the Big Ten is going to 9 conference games and next year is adding a game and removing the off week, it's already extremely tough on the players to make it through the season.  So how greedy do we need to be as fans?  Next season we are getting Alabama AND ND in the same season.  In 2017 Michigan will be playing 9 conference games, most of them pretty tough.

The bottom line is that we will never see all these cup cake games go away.  We may see them significantly reduced if we can eliminate voting for National Champion and just have a playoff.  But for that to happen, the conferences have to break apart the bowl system.  I for one am encouraged by the move of Texas A&M.  I'm hoping they really do move to the SEC.  It just adds more pressure on ND to join in, and with their present ties into the Big East for non-football related sports, it just seems too easy for the Big Ten and the SEC to divide things up into North and South.  Who cares what Texas does.  They are the Lone Star State for a reason.

 

 

mikoyan

August 31st, 2011 at 3:15 PM ^

I'm of the opinion that if you have to scrape by to get 6 or 7 wins in order to be bowl eligible, you shouldn't be going to a bowl in the first place.  I still remember the days when bowls were a reward for a good season (or at least a decent season) and not the birthright of playing in certain conferences.  As much as I like college football, I kind of hate how the bowl season stretches out from Mid-December to almost Mid-January.  Especially if this means that some of those bowls will be played by mediocre teams from good conferences over good teams from mediocre conferences.

I think a win over an Alabama, Georgia or whatever looks much more impressive than a win over EMU.  And as much I welcome the opportunity for EMU to play Michigan, I think Michigan should be setting its sights higher than the directional schools.

zlionsfan

August 31st, 2011 at 4:20 PM ^

that most teams who do scrape by to become bowl eligble end up losing their asses as a result anyway. I doubt Michigan has to worry about guarantees, so it's no big deal here, but as a general rule of thumb, most schools are going to make more money playing better teams in the first place.

mikoyan

September 1st, 2011 at 1:17 AM ^

I'm not sure what Eastern gets to be a whipping boy for Michigan but to their program it is a pretty substantial payout.  Especially when you consider that they barely average 10,000 people per game.  I'm not sure what their payout from the MAC is but I can't imagine it being that high either.  I suspect that if they do make it to a bowl game, they will be in the same position that Connecticutt was....and it will end up costing them money.

Jon06

August 31st, 2011 at 3:08 PM ^

He exchanged 2 cupcake home games at $70/ticket for 1 premium home game at $85/ticket, so after offsetting the first cupcake home game with $70/ticket from the premium home game, he had the extra $15/ticket left. He took that and subtracted it from the second cupcake home game ticket price of $70, leaving additional ticket revenue of $55/ticket times 107k tickets.

MichiganExile

August 31st, 2011 at 2:48 PM ^

I'm guessing the average Michigan fan would be willing to pay greater than 2.59 more per game to guarantee a legitimate oppenent every other year.  I would gladly pay at least a 5 dollar surcharge per game to make this happen.

pbattman

August 31st, 2011 at 2:51 PM ^

isn't the math still off?

At the top you say fuzzy bunny is $70 / ticket while when doing the math you say 107K * 55?

Shouldn't it be 107K * 70?  Not a MAJOR difference I realize (without doing the math, makes it like $3ish bucks a ticket)

FrankMurphy

August 31st, 2011 at 2:51 PM ^

Is money the real reason why teams don't play more marquee nonconference games? It strikes me as common sense that big-ticket games would generate higher revenues that yawners against FCS or MAC cupcakes. I think that since the NCAA mandated a 12th game, coaches have made it clear to their ADs that they don't want to play more than one big nonconference game per year (which in our case would be ND), so ADs find ways to make up the revenue gap without beefing up the schedule and get mealy-mouthed in justifying it. 

74polSKA

August 31st, 2011 at 2:51 PM ^

I'd gladly pay an extra $2.59 to see that, if I had tickets that is.  I would love to see a home and home against some top notch teams and it looks like you've punched some holes in the money excuse.  Plus, you've referenced one of my favorite SNL characters in recent memory.

 

 

GordonRamsay

August 31st, 2011 at 2:53 PM ^

The example of a "home and home" series is a nice concept, under the assumption that M would play a respectable opponent. However, we currently participate in a home/home series with Notre Dame. Once the Notre Dame annual matchup subsides, we could obviously replace it with another "high-profile" matchup.

With that being said, it makes little sense whatsoever to "ramp up" M's non-conference strength of schedule (from its current state), given that as a member of a "Power Conference," strength of schedule plays a marginal role (at best) in post-season posturing. Especially considering the addition of a B10 Championship game, there is absolutely no reason to unnecessarily strengthen M's schedule when other power institutions are not acting similarly. The path to the B10 Championship game is tough enough--given a situation in which we survive that schedule unscathed, it would be ludicrous for M to shoot itself in the foot by potentially losing an unnecessarily challenging non-conference game.

I realize early-season "snoozers" can be boring, but we need to schedule in the best way possible so as to give M the best possible chance of reaching another National Title contest--not prevent it.

jcgary

August 31st, 2011 at 3:13 PM ^

While I get what you are saying in terms of why make our schedule tougher if we don't need to.  But the reason I would like to see this happen is on the years that ND/Nebraska/OSU are all away games it would be nice to have a 2nd marquee game on the home schedule for season ticket holders in addition to MSU.  

I am going to enjoy this years home slate because there are 3 marquee games along with the Brown Jug game.  

Next year we are left with only 6 home games due to the Alabama game in Dallas and the only good game on the schedule is MSU.  I could consider Air Force & Iowa in the good game categories but they aren't to the level of Nebraska/ND/OSU. 

I too would like us to be in the best position to win another N.C. but I don't want to watch us play 3 directional schools every season either.  I think adding one more home and home every year where our home game is on the even years (when MSU is coming to Ann Arbor) and playing only 2 directional schools would be a good addition to our schedule. 

 

M-Wolverine

August 31st, 2011 at 3:21 PM ^

But that's a schedule issue, and not a scheduling issue. For the longest time we had ND/OSU as the home teams when PSU/MSU were the road slate, and then the other way the next year. We have to get it back to that is some way. The easier way would probably be to get ND to flip things after a break so they can be at home the same year as MSU.  Considering the strengths of the teams, it would probably be better to have OSU and Nebraska split, and MSU and ND split. Because playing all at home then all on the road makes for up-down seasons as well as schedules.

Needs

August 31st, 2011 at 3:27 PM ^

I'm going to guess that it's going to be incredibly difficult to get ND to agree to that, given their series with MSU and USC. They likely don't want both Michigan schools home or away in any given year (nice deal for ND alums who live in Michigan, btw) and we alternate with USC as their premier home game any given year. They don't really have any reason to help us out, at any rate. 

jaggs

August 31st, 2011 at 3:32 PM ^

ND has balked at this in the past as they want us and USC on opposite years. I say f them and demand it next time. It'd be easier for us to add a decent non-con game then them I'd say.

jcgary

August 31st, 2011 at 3:56 PM ^

You are correct except we did not play PSU every year.  They were on the rotation like everyone else except MSU & OSU.  So some years is was ND/OSU & MSU/some other big ten game(sometimes Wisconsin sometimes PSU sometimes both).  

The way I would like it to be done would be to ask Nebraska and the Big Ten to flip what year we play them at home but that would cause a domino effect throughout the Big Ten and the B1G might not be willing to accomodate that request.  And like other replies I don't see ND changing the year we play them at home.  Also if we were to switch which seasons we played on of these teams home we would probably have to play said team away twice in a row to accomodate the request.  

 

M-Wolverine

August 31st, 2011 at 8:08 PM ^

PSU's place. The problem is the B10 scheduled them in opposite home/away years than PSU was.
<br>
<br>I don't see playing twice in a row at one place as a big deal. It's happened before...I believe with Minnesota. They're all home and home's, so it's not like someone is playing more games at one place than another.

GordonRamsay

August 31st, 2011 at 2:53 PM ^

The example of a "home and home" series is a nice concept, under the assumption that M would play a respectable opponent. However, we currently participate in a home/home series with Notre Dame. Once the Notre Dame annual matchup subsides, we could obviously replace it with another "high-profile" matchup.

With that being said, it makes little sense whatsoever to "ramp up" M's non-conference strength of schedule (from its current state), given that as a member of a "Power Conference," strength of schedule plays a marginal role (at best) in post-season posturing. Especially considering the addition of a B10 Championship game, there is absolutely no reason to unnecessarily strengthen M's schedule when other power institutions are not acting similarly. The path to the B10 Championship game is tough enough--given a situation in which we survive that schedule unscathed, it would be ludicrous for M to shoot itself in the foot by potentially losing an unnecessarily challenging non-conference game.

I realize early-season "snoozers" can be boring, but we need to schedule in the best way possible so as to give M the best possible chance of reaching another National Title contest--not prevent it.

M-Wolverine

August 31st, 2011 at 2:56 PM ^

I missed it, and everyone is missing the first step-

2 season at $70=$140.  $140-$85 from one good game every two years= $55.

Not making fun. It took me a minute to see how he got there too. But it works out.