Michigan's shining star again today [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Purdue 82, Michigan 76 Comment Count

Alex.Drain February 5th, 2022 at 5:47 PM

The extent to which you're satisfied with Michigan's loss in West Lafayette probably depends on how comfortable you are with moral victories when the Wolverines are 11-9 overall and 5-5 in the B1G. The visitors rolled into Mackey Arena in search of a marquee victory, and they did not get one. They did, however, hang around for the entire 40 minutes, staying in a game that seemed like it was sliding away at several key moments. Is that enough to be happy about? Again, that depends on who you are. 

It started pretty ominously, with Eli Brooks airballing Michigan's first field goal attempt (it was a three-pointer), followed by Sasha Stefanovic nailing a three. A few minutes later, Caleb Houstan airballed Michigan's second three point attempt. Purdue had quickly sprinted out to a 20-8 lead and it rapidly appeared that Michigan was in huge trouble and a rout was on. That's around the point that the shots started to go down in rapid succession for the Wolverines, as the whole team heated up in a hurry. From airballing threes to suddenly knocking every shot, the half turned around fast. 

Between the 9:57 mark and the 4:34 mark, Michigan hit five three pointers, on just eight attempts. Purdue's offense also began to dry up, continuing to find success inside (more on that later), but their three point shooting slowed down, while Michigan was sniping. Hunter Dickinson's expanded three point shot was on display during this period, making back-to-back threes at one juncture, and he could've made four threes had he not had his toe on the line for two attempts. The result? The Maize & Blue had worked their way back into the contest, down just 32-31 when Dickinson hit that second three pointer.

The threes suddenly started falling [Campredon]

Unfortunately, they didn't do enough in the final four minutes of the half to pull even, all the while the defense struggled to corral defensive rebounds and gave Purdue too many extra possessions. Purdue led by six at the break, 39-33, even though Michigan led in eFG% in the first frame (5/12 on threes!), because Purdue rebounded 42% of their misses. Another factor was the lack of whistles. In fact, Purdue didn't get whistled for a single foul in the first half. To be clear, the home team didn't commit many foul worthy plays, playing a clean half of basketball, but to go twenty minutes without a foul is a rare anomaly worth noting. 

The second half featured a lot of Hunter Dickinson early on, scoring six of Michigan's first eleven points to begin the second stanza and pulling the Wolverines closer. He was avoiding fouls on defense, flashing his perimeter shooting, and battling inside. Michigan had dwindled the score to 45-44 with 16:51 to go in the contest, before Purdue surged on a 10-0 run supercharged by star guard Jaden Ivey. Matt Painter began to call ball screens for the explosive Ivey, a departure from the usual script for the team that calls the fewest ball screens in the B1G. Painter saw a matchup that Michigan remains extremely vulnerable to, and used his talent to exploit it ruthlessly. Ivey scored six straight points at the rack during that run, and it led to another moment when it seemed like the game was sliding away from the Wolverines. 

Jace alert! [Campredon]

But again, Michigan kept fighting. They made very little progress in terms of clawing back to a tie, but they didn't let the contest get out of hand. After Purdue led 61-49 with 11:43 left, the Boilermaker lead never swelled beyond 12, but it also didn't get cut to five or less until there were under 6 minutes to go. Part of the success that Michigan found in stymying Purdue was going to a 1-2-2 full court press. They forced a ten second violation and limited the amount of time Purdue had in the shot clock to set up their offense once they actually got into the front court, slowing down an attack that was functioning at full power. Jace Howard saw the floor during this stretch, and was a key part of that defensive configuration, while Dickinson and the two senior guards, Brooks and DeVante' Jones, did the scoring. 

A Dickinson jumper brought the score to 68-63 with 5:44 to go, and a couple minutes later it was 74-69. Michigan needed a couple stops to make this one more than a moral victory but their achilles heel, defensive rebounding, struck again. Purdue center Trevion Williams bricked the front end of a one-and-one, but Purdue snagged the offensive board, set up their offense, and Ivey converted on a layup. DeVante' Jones responded by hitting a three to cut it to 76-72, the closest the margin had been since early in the second half. 

The Wolverines got the stop they needed, but Trevion Williams stripped Dickinson on the baseline and a review gave the ball to the Boilermakers thanks to the Charles Matthews vs. Purdue 2018 Review rule. Ivey drew a foul, hit both free throws, and then Jones' pass deflected off Dickinson and out of bounds for another turnover. 78-72 with one minute to go, and Purdue held the ball. At this point, it was functionally over. The home team made their free throws, and Michigan would never get the margin any closer. Final score: 82-76. 

Trevion Williams was also dominant today [Campredon]

It was another phenomenal offensive performance from Dickinson, 28 points in 36 minutes on 12/17 from the field (2/3 from three), and perfect at the line. Grabbing only two defensive rebounds and four turnovers will haunt him, though. Jones posted 13 points on 5/7 from the field (with three turnovers), while Eli Brooks and Caleb Houstan were much rougher. Moussa Diabate was a non-factor offensively, scoring only two points in 17 minutes. Kobe Bufkin and Brandon Johns Jr. each hit threes for their only points, while Terrance Williams II scored six points in 18 minutes to lead bench scorers. Frankie Collins played eight minutes that were rather rough offensively, missing two threes that weren't close. 

Despite all those high notes, 55.8% from the field and 8/18 from three as a team, Michigan could not get stops consistently. Time and time again we have seen that this defense is just not good enough, allowing Purdue to shot >50% from the field despite going very cold from three. The Boilermakers were 62.5% from two (!!!!). They rebounded a shade under 40% of their misses, destroying Michigan inside and exploiting the PNR. Trevion Williams was 7/8 from the field while Zach Edey was 5/12 and they combined to snatch eight offensive rebounds. Only Ivey going 0/6 from three held Purdue from scoring 90+. 

In all, Michigan had a solid showing of fight and resolve, but they have to start winning some of these games against top tier B1G competition. Moral victories against Purdue and Illinois on the road won't help you much when you don't have any marquee victories on your resume and you're barely above .500. The good news is that Michigan has more shots coming this week. After an easier game @PSU on Tuesday, they get a rematch with these Boilermakers at Crisler on Thursday, as well as a top 25 Ohio State team at Crisler on Saturday. This week could very well make or break Michigan's tourney chances.

The game on Tuesday is scheduled for 9:00 PM and will be on ESPN2. There is no content after the jump. 

Comments

Cam

February 5th, 2022 at 6:02 PM ^

It really sucks to waste Dickinson’s talent. Any chance he comes back? If not, it’s hard to see next year being much better. There just aren’t any good young shooters on the roster.

aiglick

February 5th, 2022 at 6:03 PM ^

Have got to go 2-1 at least during the next three games and most likely have got to avoid the bad loss against PSU on Tuesday. Try to keep getting better.

DetroitBlue

February 5th, 2022 at 6:21 PM ^

Michigan didn’t have the #1 class. They were highly rated and have been disappointing so far, but they weren’t #1 - i think they were 3 or 4 by the end of the cycle. 
 

it’s also probably a little early to declare all of them failures at this point, as it takes some guys more time than others to adjust to better competition, but i get the urge to complain too

Stringer Bell

February 5th, 2022 at 6:32 PM ^

I think they might have been #2 behind Memphis' class (not exactly a banner year for the recruiting services).

 

I understand it takes time for freshmen to adjust but we have 3 McDonald's All Americans on the team and not one of them is a significant contributor even 20 gams in.  That's unheard of.  I shudder to think what this team will be without Dickinson next year unless we get some major development out of all of these guys.

bronxblue

February 5th, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^

Well, according to 247 Memphis had the #1 class last cycle and they're...not doing well.  And the top 3 teams of 2020 (UK, Duke, and Kentucky) featured two teams that didn't make the tourney (Duke and UK), one with a losing record (UK), and UNC made the tourney as an 8 seed and got blown out by Wisconsin.

So in fact, if you've watched basketball at all over the past 2 years you've seen similarly regarded groups of freshmen underperform expectations.

TrueBlue2003

February 6th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^

Next year is going to require at least 2-3 impact transfers. Another haul like with Smith, Chaundee and a big that's ready to play.  Juwan is going to have to go all Mel Tucker for next year.

We'll likely lost our entire starting five from an already mediocre team.  It'll be almost starting from scratch.

victors2000

February 5th, 2022 at 6:20 PM ^

They are getting better. I know it isn't showing up in the win column against 'good' teams, and I know they need to improve defensively, but they are looking more and more like a winning team. If they improve the defense, we have a solid chance of making the tourney.

DetroitDan

February 5th, 2022 at 6:33 PM ^

Yes, I'm in the camp of those extremely happy with this moral victory.  Nice lift from Jace Howard.  Dickinson unstoppable from inside or out.  Jones looking very good in directing the offense.  Eli is Eli.  Caleb came on strong in the 2nd half -- good to have Jace pushing him for minutes.  Moussa was weak, but he's still learning and was up against some very good veterans.

We hung with Michigan State last Saturday and played much better today against a better team.

RAH

February 5th, 2022 at 7:25 PM ^

I'm encouraged by the improvements I've seen. I was convinced that they were going to improve to only a little better than mediocre this year. I'm still not sure now that they are going to make the tournament this year but after seeing the improvement they've made recently I think there is a chance they could be a very good team by the end of the year.

TrueBlue2003

February 5th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^

To me, this was far less of a moral victory than the Illinois game. 

We were at full strength, we shot well from three, the opponent shot poorly from three and we got an incredible shooting performance from Hunter...

but we gave up 1.26 ppp despite giving up only 5-18 threes.  62.5% on twos.  Woof.  We simply cannot protect the rim and all teams have to do is dial up pick and roll and it's almost automatic.

Our defensive rankings continue to plummet.  Now 110th in the country!  From 4th last year to 110th (per kenpom). The only defense that's been worse than this in the 20+ years kenpom has been keeping data is his first 10-22 team that was running a doomed 1-3-1 with people that didn't know how to run it.  That's it.  John Beilein's teams were only this bad once!  And that barely counts.

I am happy to see Juwan is coming around to the fact that Moussa isn't ready and played him less.  I think it's now time to start helping aggressively off corner gunners.  It's better to live with the variance of threes and hope to get lucky than to give up layup after dunk after layup.

That said, this performance was probably good enough to win a lot of our remaining games so hopefully we do something close to this on offense the rest of the way.

MGlobules

February 5th, 2022 at 6:44 PM ^

Thanks for the game account on quick turnaround. Seems like an odd game to write, "Time and time again we have seen that the defense is just not good enough." Play like this and we will be in every game for the rest of the season, in at least part thanks to improved D. 

TrueBlue2003

February 5th, 2022 at 7:33 PM ^

The defense is a disaster and getting worse.  We've plummeted to 110th in kenpom.  We can't stop anyone or anything. 

The offense is getting better though. Hunter is unconscious right now, Jones has been a solidly efficient creator lately, Houstan is making some shots, Eli has bounced back from a slump.  We're up to 18th nationally on that side of the ball.

But the defense.  Hooooo boy.

MGlobules

February 6th, 2022 at 12:49 AM ^

Improved over Nebraska! The press got them back into the game. It was five empty possessions on offense down the stretch that doomed them. We can talk about where the defensive lapses occur--Dickinson is a problem that was more easily concealed last season, and Frankie and Kobe provide too little off of the bench. But there were far fewer places today where you wanted to scream at the screen. Both Caleb and DeVante were better, and Purdue had its third-worst shooting game of the season. No, our D is not good, but play like that and we are--maybe obviously--in every game going forward. There is space for further improvement, happily, on both sides of the ball. 

TrueBlue2003

February 6th, 2022 at 2:11 AM ^

Michigan has had 8 games this season with an adjusted defensive rating worse than 100 on barttorvik.com.  So that's adjusted for quality of opponent.

Each of the last four games have been worse than 100.  So our last four games are amongst the eight worse defensive performances of the season.  Amongst the other four were Minnesota, UCF and Rutgers.  That's 7 of the last 11 games.

The defense was holding up ok but since Minnesota, we've fallen off a cliff and to my eye it's largely because Big Ten coaches are exploiting the sh*t out of our inability to defend the pick and or roll or generally protect the rim. 

Another thing that happened is Brandon Johns illness/demotion.  When I chart him on defense, it's clear he's our best interior defender, by far.  I don't really know why he's not playing more because he's also been very efficient on the offensive end in conference play (123 ortg).

TrueBlue2003

February 6th, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^

I don't see him passing up shots like he was earlier in the season and I don't really care if he's pushing usage to Hunter.  That's just smart.  All we need from him is to be enough of a threat that his guy doesn't double Hunter and that's happening.  Teams are single covering Hunter because our guys have been enough of a threat from three.  That and him playing defense is all we need and he's doing that very well.

TrueBlue2003

February 6th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^

I'm basing it on their performance relative to Purdue's averages and ours and it was worse than expected based on those averages.  There were only 65 possessions in the game so 82 points is very high. Context (pace, self and opponent averages) matters.

And I chart every play with the eye of a coach.  It was not pretty.

MGlobules

February 6th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^

Well then! With the eye of a coach! Wow! No you're not; Purdue had their third-worst shooting game of the season. We can all start with the awareness that the d has been god-awful--I found the first half against NB downright unwatchable the other night; there were long stretches with a foul or screw up every time down the court. Yesterday was better, that's all. It's frustrating that so much of it is on Hunter, though, and if we add in Moussa's lapses. . . okay, work in progress. :)

TrueBlue2003

February 6th, 2022 at 3:00 PM ^

Not sure why you're throwing yourself into this one.  Both things can be true: the defense could have been better than it was against Nebraska (I think it's debatable, both were bad) and the defense could still have been bad against Purdue.  Which was my point here.

There is still a ton wrong with a defense that gave up 82 points on 65 possessions, more than they were expected to give up given that Purdue is the best offense in the country and Michigan is the third worst defense in the conference.  They still underperformed relative to those expectations. Shooting percentage is only one part of defense and them missing some threes was not because Michigan defended them well, per se.

He said nothing about Nebraska, he asked if it was fair to criticize the defense given the opponent and I pointed out that yes, it is fair.

bronxblue

February 5th, 2022 at 7:07 PM ^

Obviously you'd like to have the win but this team didn't let Purdue really run away with the game despite a couple of chances in both halves to let that happen, and that's a positive sign.

I do think the defense has been...a grab bag recently and it feels like Howard is just throwing stuff at a wall and sees if any of it sticks.  That's not going to be fixed this year but I guess they might be able to RPS some teams going forward.

Basketballschoolnow

February 5th, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^

I just don't understand how people can think that Dickinson is not an NBA player.  Yeah, I get that the NBA style has moved away from the post up.  But he is 7 foot 1, unstoppable down low, is developing his right hand, now is adding decent three point shooting, is showing an accurate mid-range jumper, is a really good passer.  Sure he won't be a lock-down defender, but, not an NBA player?  That's just crazy.

Michigan4Life

February 5th, 2022 at 11:57 PM ^

Problem is post up is the most inefficient way to score in the NBA and they're going away from it. Plus, Dickinson is not exactly mobile and would get targeted on defense in PnR. We saw that against MSU where Dickinson can't keep up with MSU's guard/wing in PnR. That's why he isn't ever considered to be a 1st round pick. 2nd round? Maybe in the same range as Garza. 7'1" immobile post player is a dying breed for a reason. 

LabattsBleu

February 5th, 2022 at 9:52 PM ^

that was a tough one...a winnable one. It was definitely a game that Michigan showed a lot of fight - I thought they were one the verge of getting run out a couple of times.

But they weathered the onslaught and fought back a couple of times and deserve credit for that.

In the same breadth, they made a number of mistakes that really doomed them... a game like this doesn't take much.... a guy missing a wide open shot, going a bit too wild and getting a charge, picking up you dribble and having to force a pass, a guy who doesn't move to the ball to give the ball handler a target, to slow in recognizing a cutter to the basket...

To win a game like this, one the road, you need to be perfect. 

Michigan was imperfect today...But that would have been good enough to beat quite a few other teams. They need this kind of effort - especially on the defensive end - for the rest of their games.  I am hoping that they will be able to do that and hold serve at home versus the Boilers.

Durham Blue

February 5th, 2022 at 10:19 PM ^

I saw a resilient team today that has some flaws but is working hard and improving.  I put a few bucks on Michigan +9.5 fully expecting that I would lose it and came away pleasantly surprised with a win.  The start of the game did not look good but the guys regrouped and played a great game overall.  Purdue is a really good team and the home crowd was raucous.  No moral victories but I saw a lot of good from Michigan today.

I am going on a limb and predicting Michigan will make the tourney this season.  I think we will finish the season strong.  Of course, to do this I am counting on Caleb and Brandon Johns to take a step forward and assert themselves.

The Deer Hunter

February 5th, 2022 at 11:26 PM ^

Agreed it was a good team effort to play Purdue as tough as they did. But don't be counting on Houston to turn this thing around, this season he's a one trick pony and IMO would be better off coming off the bench. Not bashing Caleb as he should still be in high school right now. If we're making the tourney I'm leaning towards from Terence Williams breaking out and Johns to do what he did last year in Livers absence. 

 

mgeoffriau

February 5th, 2022 at 11:27 PM ^

I have to admit I keep checking UIC's record and wondering how big of a check Warde Manuel would have to write to get Luke Yaklich to come back and fix our defense.

TrueBlue2003

February 6th, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^

I was as big a fan of Yaklich as there was around here but I don't think he's the answer.

For one, it doesn't appear that his extreme three point prevention defense works very well now that the three point line has moved back.  If you'll recall the line was moved back a foot during the offseason that Juwan was hired and he left.

Yaklich is still playing a defense that prevents 3s at pretty much all costs.  His UIC team allows the third fewest 3s in the country.  But their defense is terrible.  It's ranked in the 300s in the country, one of the worst in the Horizon league. 

Now, I don't know if there are other issues at play but it makes sense that going to extreme lengths to still prevent a shot that isn't as dangerous as it used to be isn't the best idea anymore because doing so takes your defenders further out of the play (and hence unable to help on drives and such). So UICs 2pt defense is very bad. And he clearly hasn't adjusted.

For two, I don't think coaching is the primary problem.  Michigan starts four guys that are mediocre to awful college athletes and they're all very clearly Michigan's best options to start. I don't know that coaching could do much for this defense. 

I am admittedly giving Juwan some benefit of the doubt because they had an elite defense last year. Maybe that's because Brown, Livers, Eli, Davis et al were well coached by people before Juwan and his Wile E. Coyote extended through year 2.  There are some cracks for sure because his second year players don't appear to be well coached on defense (and obviously his freshmen don't either) so time will tell.

 

DaftPunk

February 5th, 2022 at 11:52 PM ^

Something I’ve noticed that I haven’t heard mentioned, with all the criticism of our defense, is our poor passing in the paint. Penetrators don’t know how to hit cutters or big men under the basket. We frequently have balls bouncing out of bounds or to our opponents off of our hands after a great opportunity has been created.