Purdue 64, Michigan 51
I don't have much to say here, because nobody is going to want to read this.
Michigan went into halftime with an eight-point lead after Spike Albrecht drilled a contested three over AJ Hammons. A long two by Zak Irvin kept the lead at eight with 19:11 left in the second half.
The Wolverines would not hit a shot for the next 12:34. They'd finish with just three second-half field goals.
The big three of Zak Irvin, Caris LeVert, and Derrick Walton combined to hit just 6/31 shots. Irvin managed to miss all four of his layups, and he accounted for nearly half of M's total attempts at the rim. If not for Albrecht scoring 17 and Ricky Doyle going 3/3 from the field, this game somehow could've gone worse.
Aubrey Dawkins, the hero of the Illinois game, scored a basket for Purdue on an accidental tip-in. He did not score for Michigan.
A Big Ten road loss is not a death knell, of course. The fashion in which Michigan acquired it, however, is deeply troublesome. The Boilermakers crushed them in the paint, owned the glass, and on the rare occasion they gave up half-decent looks, the Wolverines rarely converted.
Whether it's inexperience, injuries, the lack of a viable big man, or—most likely—some combination of the three, there's something deeply wrong with this team. They're running out of time to figure it out.
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^
We've had games in seasons past where we out rebounded and out preformed defensively teams we had no business doing so against. Just not our break this year.
I think your post was well written. Where I have an issue with the Beilein criticism is again, IMO, many write it in the same tone we used to criticize Hoke with, and that to me is off base.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:34 PM ^
We don't even really need a "true" post player - a guy that is going to score 18-20 a game with his back to the basket. We need one or two dogs... physical and/or athletic forces that are going to rebound and play defense, put back a couple of offensive rebounds, pick up some easy finishes off of pick and roll situations, that kind of thing. Give me a Jordan Morgan with a couple more inches of height, or a Horford that is a little more physical and aggressive (and, umm, on the same page as his team.) That would be enough.
BTW Doyle may well get there, and I think once Wilson puts on some weight and doesn't look lost on the court that he can be a big contributor as well. My issue is taking someone like Mark Donnal over a big, athletic guy because the latter can't shoot as well. How much is Donnal's shooting doing for this team right now? I'd trade it all for someone that could rebound and defend in the post without getting tossed around like a rag doll.
We also just spent a scholarship on a point guard that is at best a long term project even though we had two returning PGs (both with 2+ seasons of eligibility remaining,) and a walk-on PG that played last year (and was better then than MAAR is now.) If we're signing low-rated projects with no comparable offers, why not take a flier on a raw but big athletic kid and develop him (which is what JB has built his reputation on, after all.)
I don't know.... these are just things I wonder about. I'm sure by next season everything will come together - there are too many guys coming back not to be better simply due to the experience and the gelling within the system. But while the offense is down, the weaknesses inside are twice as glaring as when we're scoring every time down the floor like we seemed to the last two years.
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:23 PM ^
Which is what your post is. It is a bit of a concern that the whole recruiting class was made up of developmental prospects and "program" guys. Kam was the highest rated recruit in the class, so you'd expect to get something from him, but he's clearly not college ready & in hindsight seems like he could have used a redshirt, but that just doesn't happen much in bball.
But that wouldn't be as much of an issue if the other players had developed like we expected. To me, Walton, Levert, & Irvin basically look like the same players they were last year, but without Stauskas & GRIII there are just not enough options on offense.
I think everyone assumed that JR Levert would become the high efficiency/high usage guy we had the last couple of years with SO Stauskas & SO Burke, and that Irvin would produce comparably to Levert last year or THJ the year before. It's just not happening, so this looks like a year for development. Hopefully they can get to .500 in the B1G & make the NIT to get some additional practice time & game experience.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:41 PM ^
Agreed on Walton/Irvin/LeVert, although I can't help but give Walton a partial pass based on his nagging toe injury. Irvin was so one-dimensional last year that honestly I didn't have expectations of a great leap forward this early. LeVert looks like a guy that is trying to carry the team, but he doesn't make the guys around him better like Burke and Stauskas could. Whatever improvements he may have made are diminished by the fact that defenses can focus on him and he's not instinctive enough as a facilitator to punish teams for collapsing on him. He'd be absolutely deadly if he had a knack for the extra pass the way Stauskas did, but then if Jordan Morgan was 6'10 with a 45" vertical we would have won it all last year.
I'd really love to see this entire roster return for next season, but I think LeVert is gone even if his stock dips into the second round -and despite what some boards say (the same ones that had GRIII as a borderline lottery pick, no doubt,) I think he's probably a second rounder.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:45 PM ^
No board had GR3 as a lottery pick at this time last year.
Ironically, I feel more than comfortable saying Levert will be the best of all JB's future pros. I don't think "instinct" has anything to do with it...more like, a lack of a 2nd ballhandler (Levert), high flying finisher (GR3) and PnR man (Morgan)
The supporting cast and the offense made Nik look much better than he is. Replace Levert with Nik this year and the team would still suck. Get real.
January 3rd, 2015 at 9:01 PM ^
There were boards with GRIII quite high, and he was definitely given the impression he was going in the first round in any case, if all the internet chirping was to be believed. I did say "borderline" lottery, FWIW.
As for the instinct argument, LeVert was around for two years before this one, and has always been a guy that is much better at creating his own opportunities than creating for others. This isn't even really a criticism - Carmelo Anthony has made a lot of money being even further tilted in this direction. My only point was that Stauskas was quite good at this, which made him more dangerous than a guy that could only score. I don't have the numbers on hand, but it's been posted on mgoblog how absurd our PPP rate was on possessions where the ball went through NS. When he wasn't scoring, he was finding guys. Yeah, it helped to have good players around him, as it always does.
BTW, I don't know who will be the better pro, and it doesn't matter. The better college player was Stauskas. He's struggling in the NBA because of athletic limitations. LeVert IMO will struggle because of his size and body type - he already gets pushed around by stronger opponents in college. But again, who is the better pro isn't really what I'm concerned with.
I do believe that if LeVert was gone and Stauskas here that yes, this team would be better - not as good as the last two years, but better than they are now.
January 3rd, 2015 at 9:08 PM ^
GRIII was lottery preseason. He fell off draft boards at the end of non conference.
I think you give Nik too much credit and not the talent around him. He is not doing well inh the NBA because he is 1 dimensional, though lack of foot speed hurts.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:08 PM ^
Nobody disagrees with meaningful, thoughtful criticisms like yours; what people get mad at around here are the bojacks who show up saying Beilein should be fired/everyone sucks and we are screwed forever. And to a less extreme case, it's people arguing that Beilein doesn't "work" at Michigan anymore because of flaws with his system, as if other teams also don't struggle in different ways. This is the downside of a Beilein system - when guys don't shoot well, it doesn't always have a second gear/option. When everything is working well, you have a championship-level team; when it isn't, you have a mediocre defensive squad living and dying with outside shooting. That's honestly okay with me, but I can see why it drives other people crazy.
That said, if McGary had been allowed to come back, this team probably looks radically different, which is just bad luck.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:45 PM ^
Yes and no on McGary. It could just as easily be that he had been healthy last year and left early because his draft stock was high (although we probably beat Kentucky and maybe win it all with a healthy MM, so I'll take it!)
I've also heard people frequently bring up "what ifs" with Horford, but then he'd be gone if he hadn't had that injury redshirt his sophomore year, too.
I do think it's funny in hindsight that so many people didn't care at all that Robinson left. I'll take a JR Robinson over Chatman in a heartbeat!
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:10 PM ^
The only real criticism, IMO, on Beilein is recruiting. You perfectly summed up my feelings.
Coach B, has a system and it is excellent, but does that system sell to the one and dones or even the elite athletes?
Honestly, GRIII is the only elite athlete we have had in recent years. But, he was identified early by Beilein and grew late. Stauskas is a great athlete compared to me and you, but not for the NBA. He is just an unconscious competitor and shooter. Hardaway was a 3 star, he has good hops, but elite is debatable. Mcgary was a 5 star and had a motor and bball IQ off the charts. I guess he could be considered elite, but it is debatable.
Beilien, has to adjust his system to appeal to different athletes or pray the NBA raises the minimum age. Or, hope OSU is full at point guard again and they pass on their states Mr. basketball.
I am really shocked at our level of recruiting the last 2 years given the enormous success of the program.
Sorry if this appears overly harsh. Beilein is a great coach, not good, but great at x and o's. Nobody outcoaches him, but this year and next look to be challenging.
Would never suggest a new coach, Beilein will bring the team back.
January 3rd, 2015 at 7:52 PM ^
January 4th, 2015 at 9:45 AM ^
..."None of Beilein's teams have been particularly good at defense, rebounding, or post play".
Also, agree that a high PPP masks these shortcomings. Looks like that won't happen this year. Enjoyed your well thought-out comments throughout this thread. Keep them coming.
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^
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January 3rd, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^
I'm not gonna be spoiled fan, though and start screaming. Am I disappointed so far with this season? Definitely.
But 3 years of championships in a row are keeping me from getting angry. Lost a combined 5 guys to the NBA the last two years.
Just get into the NCAA Tournament. Maybe they can steal a couple at home against teams they "aren't supposed to beat" and it will help the resume.
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:23 PM ^
NCAA tourney is a pipe dream. This is a down year for the B1G as well. MSU and OSU aren't exactly lighting it up either. Only Maryland and Wisky are true contenders.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:13 PM ^
Unless they just sweep games against Wiscy, Maryland, and OSU, that seems unlikely. Maybe a BTT tourney run, but even that seems unlikely.
They just aren't that good right now, and unless they turn it around I don't see them making the tournament b/c their OOC wins are basically Syracuse and nothing else, while they have some bad losses.
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
This team just isn't playing smart. I'm sure it's been mentioned fifteen dozen times, but jeez, long-range 2's. The offense can't be Caris or Walton dribbling around and shooting contested jumpers. And obviously, hit the damn layups.
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:15 PM ^
This is what a young team looks like. Streaky. Inconsistent. Lost. There is no Morgan to lead the way. There is no Novak to mentor a young Burke. That lack of senior leadership is the difference.
But those blasting Beilein are misguided at best.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:04 PM ^
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January 3rd, 2015 at 5:22 PM ^
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January 3rd, 2015 at 5:57 PM ^
We didn't win the conference in 2010-11. We went 9-9.
We won the B1G the year after that.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:02 PM ^
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January 3rd, 2015 at 5:23 PM ^
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:36 PM ^
does it really matter who starts? to me it's all about the minutes. spike got 29 to walton's 26 today. i don't care who starts as long as the hotter hand gets more minutes.
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:45 PM ^
Caris is forcing too much offense on his own - even in games he is "on" there is no flow or context to most of his shots. Walton's injury is clearly affecting his shots whever they are coming on the floor. And I think Zac needs to be relegated to the bench. His poor shooting is killing us and he isn't much of a defender. Give Dawkins and MAAR some more looks.
January 3rd, 2015 at 5:45 PM ^
Purdue - 15 pts, 13 rebounds, 7 TOs
UM - 12 pts, 6 rebounds, 3 TOs
I would have taken those stat lines in a hearbeat before the game. Given that, I would have thought we would win by double digits. i think our centers played pretty tough today considering they were up against two 7 footers.
this game was 100% the fault of our big 3.
January 3rd, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^
January 4th, 2015 at 3:27 AM ^
The roster distribution is really messed up right now. Early departures are the primary cause but Beilein has also tried to compensate with a quantitative solution of throwing bodies at the problem and hoping that some of these Plan C guys stick, because the qualitative response of bringing in high level freshman did not pan out in 14 and 15 classes. Hence those last minute fliers on guys like MAAR, Dawkins and Robinson.
As it stands right now, you have 7 or 8 guys who will be sophomores next year, depending on Wilson. And Wilson probably won't get a 5th year anyway as project big men who are minor contributors dont tend to get offered a 5th year. Robinson effectively has the same eligibility as those '14 recruits since he'll be a sophomore next year. There's just no way that you can keep all 8 of those guys all the way through 17-18 season. You can't have 8 of 13 guys in the same eligibility class, especially when none of them are particularly talented (Robinson may be a good shooter but if he were really talented he wouldn't have been in D3). Not saying that they'll be pushed out the door but the program will need some of those guys to leave and free up scholarships. Not worth worrying about too much, these things tend to work themselves out. A few guys will transfer because of playing time or whatever and there are always injuries or guys who decide they don't want to continue with basketball.
January 3rd, 2015 at 7:42 PM ^
Too many talented players have gone pro and the "big 3" are roll players, not team leaders. Give it a year. Johnny B will pull things together. I'd rather suffer through a rebuilding year with Beilein than go back to the nightly shit show Brian Ellerbe used to lob onto the court.
January 3rd, 2015 at 7:53 PM ^
It has nothing to do with "the Big 3"
It has to do with skill sets. We have one guy who is good in Caris. We still need a second guy who can get to the rim, we need a finisher at the rim, we need rim protection and we could use more athleticism. None of that is going to change next year, regardless of a year of extra experience.
January 3rd, 2015 at 8:05 PM ^
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January 3rd, 2015 at 8:25 PM ^
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January 3rd, 2015 at 10:22 PM ^
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January 3rd, 2015 at 8:54 PM ^
correct, i.e.recruiting targets, inexperience, rebounding, points in the paint and defense etc. And yes, this may be a down year. But it just doesn't seemed like a Beilein coached team - not negging JB, just saying that's how it looks when you watch.
These guys just seemed to be satisifed to come down the court and chuck up threes. That said, what kind of disturbs me is what appears to be an unwillingness by Beilein to adjust his lineup and game schemes beyons just shuffing guards to leverage the two bigs and play them simultaneously.
I don't understand why he refuses to play his two bigs simultaneously (I get it about his guard-ortiented philosophy, but jeesh). It seems like his idea of adjustments this year is basically shuffling the guards netting the same non-result.
He continues to use that small guard lineup with no one taking it inside, no points in the paint, out rebounded offensively or defensively. It's like he's sitting there just waiting for shots to drop and it hasn't happened for weeks. That will not cut in the B1G. It was clear that Purdue consistently grabbed the ball above the small Michigan lineup even when Michigan had better position.
I've never seen what appears to be JB resistant to change things up and leaning the "we're a young team" rationale to explain away loses - seems I've heard that somewhere before.
January 3rd, 2015 at 8:55 PM ^
January 3rd, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^
I actually just laughed today in the second half.
January 3rd, 2015 at 10:56 PM ^
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January 4th, 2015 at 12:44 AM ^
I think Michigan should play more zone to help the bigs down low. They have major problems trying to guard guys without help. I'd mix up a 2-3 with the 1-3-1 when Donnel or Beilfeldt have to guard anyone with skill.
Also, make shots.
January 4th, 2015 at 4:15 AM ^
January 4th, 2015 at 4:20 AM ^
I.e the problem today was finishing the looks we want. The offense ran ok as did the D.
January 4th, 2015 at 8:26 AM ^
To many open scoring attempts missed. How many layups missed? There's your points in the paint. Make those shots they win. This team is young in a bad way. The youth on this team is not as assertive as the previous years with Trey and Nick. Potential is there. Need to get mentally hardened. Go Blue.
January 4th, 2015 at 9:24 PM ^
The reality is we have not recruited well at the PF and C positions. We are very thin in the front court and teams will continue to bash us inside until further notice. This is exaxtly why Mitch was so valuable to us. Losing Horford didn't help matters any although I am not a big believer in his talent. I think he would have helped us this year.
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