Washington links: Preview, Podcast, FFFF Offense, FFFF Defense, Weather (t-shirts should be fine as long as they’re maize)

Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.

PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie
@Bry_Mac

This piece was going to be a lot easier to write at about 4:00 p.m. last Saturday. Michigan, fresh off a solid but not spectacular victory over a mediocre opponent, would get a real test against a ranked, good-but-not-great Washington team. How would Michigan’s defensive front hold up against Washington’s veteran offensive line? How would Cade McNamara fare in his first true test as Michigan’s starter? Had Jim Harbaugh stopped the bleeding?

Normal football questions for a normal football game. The kind of standard crap you’d hear leading off any Gameday segment or local network preview. It would be framed in terms of a random anecdote or a tortured analogy, as this space is prone to do.

And then Washington went out and crapped its pants on regional TV.

We’re not Fredo… at the moment

It was only the fifth FCS win over a ranked team in the 43-year history of the FBS/FCS (Division I-A/I-AA) split, and one of the most embarrassing. Appalachian State was the two-time defending national champion entering 2007, and won it again that season. North Dakota was the 4-time defending national champion when they knocked off #13 Iowa in 2016. Montana is 18-14 in Big Sky conference play over the past four seasons, and was a 24-point underdog, on the road, against the defending Pac 12 West champions.

[After THE JUMP: Dead dog bounce?]

Part of me wants to be peeved. Michigan has, to an extent, been placed in a ‘can’t win’ situation. Washington isn’t terrible. They probably aren’t even bad. They laid a galactic egg last Saturday, but that catastrophe, coupled with Michigan beating Western Michigan more handily than was expected, wasn’t even enough to move the line a full touchdown. Michigan was a 1-point favorite. Then they won their opener. Then Washington faceplanted. Now Michigan is a 6.5 point favorite. It’s still anyone’s game. But if you win, you accomplished as much at home as Montana accomplished on the road. And if you LOSE… hoooo buddy.

But you know what? These are September concerns. These are concerns of people who care, even a little bit, about the opinions of the Rainer Sabins of the world. Facing a Great And Worthy Opponent is good. You know what’s better? Wins. Victories. Left column >>> right column.

Some people still care that Michigan’s Final Four run in 2018 featured five opponents no higher than a 6-seed. You know who those people are? Spartans. Spartans who do not have a Final Four banner that says “2018” on it. Michigan fans could argue about the relative merits of various opponents. Or they can point to the rafters and say, “banner.” The latter is much easier. And much more satisfying.

Michigan is not in Clemson’s position. They are not going to be a 12-1 team with a middling schedule worried about a playoff berth. They are a team with a coach who needs wins. They’re playing in front of a bunch of recruits they need to impress. They’re dealing with a lot of shit. And wins are wins.

For the first time in a while, Michigan isn’t the fail-son. We’re not the Chet Hanks. I’m not sure we’re Colin… but we’re not Chet. Someone else gets the snickers on Gameday. Michigan gets to play the role of 2007 Oregon to Montana’s Appalachian State. Don’t look the gift grizzly in the mouth. Michigan 31, Washington 13

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COUNTERPUNT

By Internet Raj
@internetraj

In finance, the term “dead cat bounce” refers to a meager and short-lived rise in an asset, like a stock, that ultimately suffers a steep decline over the long run. The temporary price appreciation of the “dead cat bounce” continues just long enough to seduce unsuspecting and guileless investors into buying into what will ultimately be a doomed trade. Specifically, the phrase draws its origins from the morbid, but viscerally instructive, notion that “even a dead cat will bounce from a great height.”

Also a graphical representation of how much actual football is discussed in Counterpunt

Last week’s Michigan vs. Western Michigan game sucked me right in to a vortex of irrational exuberance like the naïve nitwit I am. I spent this entire past week gorging on the carcass of the Broncos blowout, lathering myself in the comforting bubble bath of optimistic podcasts and glowing game breakdowns.

Me listening to every single Michigan podcast published this week and soaking up the 1-0 vibes. I don’t care if it’s your 8 year old nephew recording a .wav file in 96kbps, if you’re dropping Michigan content this week I’m consuming it. pic.twitter.com/Jaty72mEAN

— raj (@internetraj) September 5, 2021

Convinced that Mike Macdonald is a defensive wizard who has fixed Michigan’s longstanding systemic woes in a single offseason. Convinced that our starting quarterback is the surgical, calculating field general we’ve needed so badly in Ann Arbor the last 6 years. Convinced that our backup quarterback is an 18-year-old version of Patrick Mahomes. Convinced that a September win against a MAC team is not a blip on the radar doomed to becoming a footnote to another chapter of misery. Convinced that the win is the first data point in an upward sloping trend line that only hits new all-time high after new all-time high, all the way to Indianapolis.

The problem, though, is that the graveyards of Michigan football history are littered with September hopes and dreams that are not so much dashed as they are ground into a fine dust, drenched with kerosene, and lit on fire.

• September Heisman campaigns.
• September wins against ranked Notre Dame teams.
• September fist pumping and September machismo.
• September swagger.

All of it which invariably gives way to November disappointments.

• November disasters.
• November blowouts.
• November excuses.
• November self-immolation.

When you lose to yet another rival and/or when you’re full of free chips and salsa at the Mexican restaurant by the time the waiter comes around to take your entrée order.

Sure, Michigan may parlay a Week 1 win against Western Michigan into a foundation for a successful 2021 season, but that would definitively be the exception and not the rule of the Harbaugh Era. And it all starts with today’s game against the Washington Huskies. Washington is coming off an embarrassing faceplant against FCS Montana and, as a result, pundits all over the nation are stumbling over one another to predict a Michigan victory. And, once again, the speculative Wolverine September bubble is beginning to form, enticing even the most jaded and cynical of fans to wet their beak in maize-tinged Kool-Aid.

I can feel an overwhelming impulse overcoming me, compelling me to smash the big green “BUY” button that is Michigan football stock. As much as I try to plug my ears and ignore rationality, the pragmatist in me is cautioning against making that investment and instead only asks one question:

How high can a dead Wolverine bounce?

My score prediction says “not very” but heart says to the damn moon.

Michigan 24 Washington 27