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Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Wisconsin
WHERE	Camp Randall Madison, WI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	Wisconsin -2
TELEVISION	FOX
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	partly cloudy, mid-70s ~20% chance of rain ~10 mph wind

Overview

The mood:

Michigan fans Wisconsin fans
We will lose No, we will lose
( •_•) (•_• )
( ง )ง ୧( ୧ )
/︶\ /︶\

— Bucky’s 5th Quarter (@B5Q) September 29, 2021

This is a bit weird since one of these teams is 4-0 and the other is 1-2, and the 1-2 team is favored.

But hey, yeah, it's Wisconsin. They're doing a lot of Wisconsin things, but they're also pretty wonky at some of the Wisconsin things. This has led to a couple of ugly, low-scoring games against Power 5 opponents that both ended in losses. The first was a 16-10 game against Penn State that was 0-0 at halftime; the second featured a 13-10 fourth quarter lead against Notre Dame that somehow turned into a 41-13 loss.

Michigan feels a wobble after an atrocious second half against Rutgers, but Wisconsin's a couple more turnovers away from a full-fledged implosion.

[Hit THE JUMP for spiderman pointing]

Run Offense vs Wisconsin

[Campredon]

This was looking like a hellbeast of a matchup until Michigan's run game sputtered in the latter two-thirds of the game last week. Now it looks like… well, just a regular beast. Michigan's done some things on the ground and probably spent the whole week self-scouting after things went south. Things like "hitting the perimeter" and "I don't know doing anything at all to get folks out of the box" are likely to surge back into the gameplan, at least temporarily, and Seth will be less frustrated doing the UFRs.

Er… maybe. Wisconsin's 3-4 is going to be a problem. They've given up 69 rushing yards… total. In three games. Ten sacks make that slightly deceptive, but only slightly. Teams have barely bothered to test the Badger front seven. PSU running backs combined for 45 yards on 12 carries, 34 of which came on one Noah Cain run. The other 11 attempts averaged one (1) yard each. Notre Dame gave their RBs 20 attempts, but five of those were in garbage time. Those 20 attempts gathered 39 yards, with a long of seven.

Neither of these teams appear to have much of a ground game this year, but there's holding guys to 3.5 yards a carry and then there's what Wisconsin is doing to teams. Annihilating two upper-level P5 teams is ominous indeed. Alex on how they're doing this:

The Sanborn section gives you a good hint about where Wisconsin is most dangerous, which is in their front seven. The defensive ends may be a bit weaker than normal, but it's also hard to tell right now, because any deficiencies on the DL are being patched up by the LB's. … The ability to have four LB's (Sanborn, Chenal, Burks, and Herbig) who all can become a kamikaze rusher and get home, is what makes the Wisconsin defense so dangerous and also mysterious. Because it allows Jim Leonhard to line up the defense like it's doing one thing, and then pull back the curtain and reveal a different blitz.

Leonhard knows what he's doing and is probably in line for a head job at some point in the near future; Wisconsin brings the usual amount of planetoid nose tackle and an impressive-even-for-them crew of linebackers shooting gaps. Michigan's been excellent at identifying who to go after this year—Rutgers issues were more about free hitters not being punished with playcalling and some iffy blocking—but this is going to be the acid test.

There's some hope here that Michigan will be able to crack the Wisconsin front given their performance to date. I wouldn't get too down based on one bad half where Michigan's quarterback play was allowing Rutgers to tee off, especially since Rutgers's defense is weird and Michigan's more or less adopted Wisconsin's 3-4/2-4-5 approach. Michigan has athletic advantages in the form of Blake Corum that should be able to stretch Wisconsin horizontally, but if they come out with the same moribund plan they had last week that's not going to get it done.

KEY MATCHUP: JOSH GATTIS vs THE STUFF YOU STORED UP THE LAST FEW WEEKS, RIGHT? This is a game to dump out the weird stuff in the playbook. AJ Henning needs touches. Haskins and Corum should probably be on the field together some, getting guys going the wrong way. The things that can break big need airing.

Pass Offense vs Wisconsin

[Campredon]

Given the above this would be a game to rely on the quarterback heavily, which both PSU (33 attempts, 7.5 YPA) and Notre Dame (37 attempts, 6.5 YPA) did—in Notre Dame's case that was despite losing starter Jack Coan in the second half. Problem:

That's a list of passing offenses ranked by number of attempts. Michigan slides in just ahead of the service academies and no one else. This aversion to passing is so extreme that it cannot be entirely explained by a mostly rampant run game, and Cade McNamara's performances to date have been highly erratic. He was not up for it against Washington, and when Michigan tried to rely on him against Rutgers he missed every pass.

If that happens again Michigan's going to grin and bear it, hoping that Wisconsin shoots themselves in the foot as they've done for much of this season. If they get down and nobody's moving and the run game is stuck in neutral, glances towards the bench will begin in earnest. Expect caution here as Michigan tries to Lloydball this game. That's a fair enough way to try to win against this version of Wisconsin, and also it will drive everyone insane.

For the Badgers' part, they're vulnerable over the top:

All of that said, if you can protect your QB/the OL can figure out a way to identify the rushers and pick them up, you can beat Wisconsin through the air. Despite a veteran secondary that knows the scheme well, there are still issues down the field. Penn State beat Wisconsin by throwing the ball down the field, despite the general troubles they had protecting Cilfford. Indeed, 143 of the 297 yards PSU gained in this game came on just three plays​​​​​​​, all of them deep bombs. Blowing the top off the defense, especially when they're keying in on the run, is the way to even the playing field and give you space in the box.

Notre Dame also had a 40-yard TD on a fade.

This sounds encouraging if we get the version of McNamara who's been very good on deep balls this season. But also they have ten sacks with those rampant linebackers, so attempting to bomb it deep is going to be a massively high-variance activity. Coan got wiped out with a brutal blindside hit that led to a fumble and a turnover.

Michigan must take their shots, and have protected very well this year. As with the ground game this Wisconsin defense provides another level of test.

KEY MATCHUP: BOMBS AWAY vs VARIANCE. Very unsettling way you need to move the ball, in giant chunks over the top. You can miss those by inches and then you're in very tough against a defense that doesn't give up much in front of their safeties.

Run Defense vs Wisconsin

Ross is supposed to return [Fuller]

This is not a vintage Wisconsin run offense. The Badgers are just 63rd in YPC overall and managed just 3.1 and 2.8 YPC against their two non-EMU foes. For the first time in a long time, the Badger running backs aren't lethal:

Chez Mellusi and Isaac Guerrendo are mostly just guys. They can break tackles here and there but I have not seen a Jonathan Taylor quality to either of them. Mellusi has acceleration that once made him a Clemson recruit but there was little space in this game for him to flash it. The best example is probably in the first Seltzner clip in the Dangerman section, which was also one of Wisconsin's longest runs of the day. Guerrendo is decent at breaking tackles but that was about all I noted from him.

The OL is still capable of ripping out the heart of the defense but with the issues in the passing game we're about to cover opponents have been able to stack the box willy-nilly and deliver free hitters even when the blocking is good. Against Jonathan Taylor that was often a recipe for getting blown through or by and giving up a big play; these guys not so much.

Michigan's getting good play from a couple DTs and hopes to have man-mountain Jordan Whittley back; Whittley might not play many snaps but will be extremely useful as a generally immovable person on the ones he does get. This might be a bridge too far, though. Both ND and PSU look to have stout front sevens and Rutgers was able to consistently gain yardage last weekend, albeit with the sort of college crappe that Wisconsin largely eschews.

Josh Ross's loss was a big deal, especially since it was hard to coach up his replacements since the offense kept going three  and out. Ross should return, as his injury was announced as a stinger last week. (By an SID who is no doubt hanging over a cauldron of boiling oil as we speak.)

KEY MATCHUP: HOLDING UP INSIDE vs A REPEAT OF PREVIOUS WISCONSIN GAMES. Some danger that Michigan gets paved in bad ways as this OL greatly outclasses the OL Michigan has generally survived against in the first few games. Hopefully if that starts happening the response is not the weird passivity Michigan approached the second half with last week.

Pass Defense vs Wisconsin

 

Graham Mertz was the highest-rated QB recruit to commit to Wisconsin since the advent of recruiting rankings and everyone was hype about the idea that Wisconsin + Not Just A Wisconsin Quarterback would lead to a breakthrough past the Wisconsin ceiling. Former starter Jack Coan transferred out and the way was made plain for Mertz.

To say this hasn't exactly worked out is an understatement. Mertz is currently completing 57% of his passes for 6 yards an attempt with one touchdown and 6(!) interceptions, the latter two of which were returned for touchdowns in the Notre Dame game. Those numbers get even uglier if you disregard a 14/17 performance against Eastern Michigan. Alex charted the Penn State game and came up with incredibly ugly charting numbers: 5 bad reads, 6 inaccurate balls, a giant pile of marginal ones. It was ugly:

Here, Mertz locks onto his guy and forces it into double coverage when he has another option open. Look at this:

The yellow circle is the football, intended for a Wisconsin receiver who is boxed in by double coverage. The blue circle shows the wide open receiver Mertz missed. …

Mertz's issues, when mixed with the usual slate of "ehhhh" receivers, leave the passing game totally impotent. They can't throw it down the field, and so every passing play is either a small hitch, a slant, or an out route. Nothing beyond 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, which only serves to make the already stale playcalling more predictable. It's difficult to make the offense tricky and exciting when your receivers are just guys and your QB needs to be wearing a straitjacket.

Those receivers should be familiar: Danny Davis, Kendric Pryor, TE Jake Ferguson. Ferguson, as per tradition, is the best option, another Wisconsin tight end who will be of mid-round interest to the NFL when his college career is done. Both Pryor and Davis have been around absolutely forever—both played in the 2017 Michigan-Wisconsin game. Davis has produced 30-40 catches at about 10 yards a pop for the duration of his career. He's not that big, he's not that explosive, he's just… ok. Pryor's in a similar boat. At around 6' neither guy is much of a jump ball threat, they mostly work underneath and try to get open based on pattern schemes instead of individual ability.

Compounding matters are pass protection issues at tackle, which sound pretty good from a Michigan perspective what with Aidan Hutchinson coming off the edge. Expect the Badgers to leave guys in protection, further limiting options for Mertz.

Michigan's cornerbacks have held up against a series of popgun passing attacks so far—give or take some inexplicable coverages against Rutgers—and should be able to stay in contact here. This doesn't look like the week when Michigan's coverages get tested extensively.

KEY MATCHUP: LINEBACKERS vs PLAY ACTION. It's Wisconsin, Mertz is a mess, Ferguson's the biggest threat, and PA looks like the best opportunity for someone to pop open in a way that Mertz might actually hit them. A few different first down chunk plays might be enough in what projects to be a slobberknocker.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Wisconsin special teams have been very bad so far this year; they rank 111th in FEI's estimation. Corner Dean Ingram returns punts, and has done nothing of note in a couple years of doing so. Ditto kick returner Devin Chandler. Kicker Collin Larsch is fairly iffy, hitting about 2/3rds of his kicks; he ranks in the middle of the pack nationally. Wisconsin suffered a 96-yard kick return touchdown against Notre Dame. That along with very bad punt return stats are most of the poor national ranking.

Punting has been good but it's likely that Andy Vujnovich will come back to earth—he's averaging almost 50 yards a kick without giving up significant return yardage, but last year he was merely eh.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING WELL

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Wisconsin's front is stoning Michigan.
• McNamara gets a big hit early.
• Bad stupid road juju comes in full effect.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Mertz mertzes mertz.
• Michigan runs the weird stuff.
• Michigan can protect when they chuck it deep.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 (Baseline: 5; +1 for 69 Rushing Yards Total, Nice, +1 for Spooky Road Game, +1 for First Road Game Of Year At Very Bad Place For Recent Winning Business, –1 for A Seeming Advantage On The Ground? Really?, –1 for Our QB May Not Be Great But He Also Hasn't Throw Six Picks, +1 for Chryst Is Going To Do The Game Theory Things.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +1 for I Mean We Are Undefeated, +1 for Annoying Haven't Won There Since X Year Stat, +1 for Annoying Can't Win On Road Against Decent Teams Stat)

Loss will cause me to… revert to 7-5 prediction, grow giant white beard, get sign that says REPENT.

Win will cause me to… downplay win for Lucy-approaching purposes since Wisconsin will be 1-3.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

This is going to be ugly as both teams are afraid of their QBs and willing to plunge into the line over and over again. Michigan's mediocre front seven goes up against Wisconsin's mediocre rushing attack; on the other side of the ball two very good units go head to head. Hard to discern which of those matchups is going to go better for the offense.

So then you look at two things: Michigan's hit some deep balls and Wisconsin hasn't, and Wisconsin's gotten hit on deep balls and Michigan hasn't. Also Michigan has zero turnovers to Wisconsin's many-many, and honestly Mertz has been fortunate that he hasn't suffered more. So that would suggest Michigan wins, except hanging your hat on high-variance, low occurrence plays is pretty dang stupid even in the context of a preview.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Michigan wins the battle on the ground largely because Corum does something eyepopping.
• There is one gigantic game-deciding thing that happens.
• Michigan, 12-10.

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