[Bryan Fuller]

Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Northwestern
WHERE	Ryan Field Evanston, IL
WHEN	4:30 Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan –14.5
TELEVISION	FOX
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	mid 50s, partly cloudy minimal wind, negligible chance of rain

Overview

Northwestern returned a bunch of very good players from a 10-win team that was built on an absurd stretch of consecutive overtime victories; they have since been brought low by the same variance they thrived on a year ago. Also by their offense, which is poop. Cede three defensive touchdowns to Akron poop. Have your quarterback projected as a first round NFL draft pick poop.

So this will either be a comfortable walkover or Michigan will be rescued from disaster when grad assistant Roy Roundtree swoops in to catch a ball that 72 different Wildcats have already batted on the final play of the game. Because that's what happens to Northwestern against Michigan.

[Hit THE JUMP for OUR VERY DUMB NICKNAME FOR A GREAT PLAYER]

Run Offense vs Northwestern

Paddy Fisher is a fine boi

Here we go. It's Joe "THE GAZ" Gaziano versus Michigan's tackle tandem. Gaziano is the Big Ten's returning sack leader despite being a hefty, angry 280-pound SDE; he'll be a threat both on the ground and against the pass. Seth clipped him absolutely obliterating Duke in a performance that might have drawn more attention if it wasn't against Duke and wasn't a 21-7 loss. He's the best DE Michigan has seen this year, and #2 got on the All America Team Of The Week (or whatever) after the Notre Dame game. Put up or shut up time for the tackle improvement theory.

Gaziano is part of a stiff front seven that features MLB Paddy Fisher, who led the country in stuff percentage last year and ranked as PFF's #25 returning player in all of college football, OLB Nate Hall and his 16.5 TFLs, two other returning starters on the line, and a new guy Seth liked a lot at the other OLB spot:

Gallagher meanwhile is about to become the three-year fave of a low-rung PFF employee who has to chart Northwestern games. I had nearly as many clips from Gallagher as the Gaz and scored him +7/-3, which is a thumpin' good outing for a linebacker.

These guys were the backbone of last year's #20 S&P+ run defense. Things have mostly continued in that vein. Duke and Akron averaged 2.5 yards a carry. The "mostly" is a lot of Rondale Moore, the mighty-mite Purdue receiver who ripped off a 75-yard touchdown on a jet sweep. Michigan may seek to replicate that with Ambry Thomas; it doesn't have a ton do to with the front seven.

Michigan started hinting at the depths of their playbook yesterday with a series of down G runs that baffled the Nebraska linebackers. Northwestern's guys will be harder to fool but do tend to be blitzball types who read run and go hard; Michigan can put one or three in the wrong gap by tweaking their approach. The tactical battle might play a larger role than it usually does: one way to deal with Gaziano is to option him off instead of blocking him.

Of note: this will be a decent preview of how Michigan does against MSU's defense. Northwestern runs another 4-3 quarters approach on about every snap.

KEY MATCHUP: WHAT'S NEW vs WHAT'S SCOUTED. Michigan's probably going to have to get creative to get chunk runs, and will hopefully have a plan to stall Gaziano out without having to touch him.

Pass Offense vs Northwestern

oh lawd he comin'

Gaziano is the headliner here, too, what with the sacks and all. He has extraordinary get-off for such a big man:

Michigan has been chipping to help their tackles, and priority one on offense will be chipping or straight up doubling Gaziano instead of letting him do that to Shea Patterson's blindside. Michigan should consider helping Runyan instead of JBB, as they have the past two games. At least Patterson's able to see someone coming from JBB's side. The goal for the tackles here is to survive with dignity intact; the goal for the rest of the line is to block Northwestern well enough that Patterson has options when Gaziano breaks through.

Northwestern's secondary is the scrappy and fairly good outfit they matured into a few years ago after decades of futility that lasted long after the rest of the program had turned it around. Top corner Montre Hartage got a decent-to-good 70 rating from PFF last year and is solidly on NFL draft radars. Someone provided a scouting report, even:

 ...terrific ball skills, has found hands on a number of footballs thanks to discipline in zone coverage. Very effective in breaking the hands of receivers at the catch point, playing scrappy and swiping through to ensure receivers are unable to transition the ball into their bodies. ...Does not appear to have a good deal of straight line speed or recovery burst, instead will remain a stride off the pace if challenged vertically by receivers down the field. Turn and run reps have not resulted in ideal stickiness, will give up a step on hard breaks.

Like I said: scrappy. Michigan should be able to go at Hartage and his partner Greg Newsome; balls that are not on point are strong candidates to get raked out.

If there's a problem—jury's still out—it's with the new safeties. Northwestern graduated Godwin Igwebuike and Kyle Quiero, both of whom are on the Cowboys' practice squad. Losing a pair of fringe NFLers is a tough blow for a program that recruits like Northwestern and the new guys have been a bit suspect. Jared McGee looks more like a linebacker than a defensive back, and rather plays like one.

If Michigan can pass protect, Patterson should have a field day. Northwestern is coming games of 8.5 and 9.9 YPA allowed against Duke and Akron, respectively; they have the kind of athletes to exploit McGee's lack of athleticism and run by some scrappy corners. Paired with blitzball LBs and an aggressive, good run defense this might be Patterson's first 30-attempt game. Or Michigan could look at the Northwestern offense and resolve to win 20-7.

KEY MATCHUP: STILL THE OFFENSIVE TACKLES versus THE GAZ. For now, and for later.

Run Defense vs Northwestern

New Northwestern running back could be one of these two guys?

Jeremy Larkin's abrupt retirement leaves this section fairly bereft of answers. Larkin had the vast majority of Northwestern's rushing attempts, averaging 4.8 yards a carry against not great competition. Junior John Moten IV has 12 carries for 21 yards, which is 1) a palindrome, and 2) 1.75 yards an attempt. He had 17 carries last year. The data: none. Moten and freshman Isaiah Bowser (composite #740) will try to fill Larkin's shoes. Even considering Northwestern's tendency to run one guy into the ground the carry distribution implies a dropoff from an already-bad run game.

It doesn't help matters that Clayton Thorson was the kind of guy who had about 50 non-sack carries last year, a fair few of them intentional, and is now a guy who does not run for any reason whatsoever due to his ACL recovery. Thorson was never a threat on the ground but now he's not even keeping the opposition honest.

Northwestern's line is kinda short and not that big and is mostly the same crew from a year ago that was able to zone various teams that could not overwhelm them physically. Justin Jackson had 171, 166, 157, 154, and 144 yards against Maryland, Minnesota, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Illinois, respectively. Sometimes he took 32 carries to get to there but he was able to grind out consistent yards.

There was a clear bifurcation, though. Jackson had miserable days against Duke, Wisconsin, MSU, and Purdue (which did have a good run D last year). Guys like Lorenzo Neal and Olive Sagapolu and Various Panasiuks blew into the backfield and collapsed plays before they could get started. Seth got this chunk run against Duke where Larkin managed to put a linebacker in the wrong gap, but what leapt out to me was what happens to the left guard:

That Duke guy is listed at 225. Is that guy going to check Mone? Kemp? Anybody?

This should be a bloodbath unless Northwestern has something up their sleeve. The recent history of Northwestern football suggests they do not.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs THE UNKNOWN. New plays, new running backs Michigan hasn't scouted: they could lead to some chunk yards maybe.

Pass Defense vs Northwestern

This is Mitch Leidner. No reason.

Someone in the NFL factory has to put out an Early Mock Draft annually, and annually this list includes a big ol' Big Ten quarterback with feet for hands and boulders for feet. The derision is also annual. Meet Clayton Thorson, the New Mitch Leidner:

The draft is over, so no we turn our attention to 2019.

Some have called it a weaker QB clas, but I think there's plenty of talent.

Drew Lock
Justin Herbert
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Nick Fitzgerald
Clayton Thorson
Justice Hansen

all look like potential NFL guys.

— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) April 29, 2018

Those are indeed some names and Clayton Thorson. You can check the twitter search yourself. This dude was far from alone. What on earth:

Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has Thorson pegged at No. 14 overall, another Bleacher Report mock (there are many) has Thorson going No. 3 (!) and WalterFootball.com has Thorson going No. 5 overall. Oddly enough, all projections have Thorson heading to the Giants. [ed: ok that bit makes sense]

And this was after Thorson tore his ACL in the bowl game. Even before that the idea that Thorson was some kind of unstoppable Northwestern throw-god seemed like a weird NFL self-parody. Exactly what about Thorson's 6.6 YPA and 15-12 TD-INT ratio screamed "NFL quarterback"? We'll never know.

Thorson managed to get back for the beginning of Northwestern's season, but the ACL injury (probably) induced a quarterback rotation with junior TJ Green. Thorson would do some good things; Green would come in and muck about; Thorson would return and look like toasted garbage. Thorson's down to 6.5 YPA in the early bit of Northwestern's season with a 3-3 TD-INT; Green is at 4.8 YPA with one INT. This is a dismal passing offense no matter who's out there.

This is the point where I just name Northwestern's wide receivers and you decide for yourself based solely on that data whether they're going to be a threat Michigan's secondary. Flynn Nagel. Bennett Skowronek. The end. Nagel is a slot-ish guy; Skowronek is a 6'4" box-out type. Collectively they have virtually all of Northwestern's meaningful receptions with 34 between them; no other WR has more than 52 yards. Nagel might actually be a bit of an issue for a safety crew that's struggled to defend slants. Seth gave him a star in FFFF:

He had 16(!) targets in this game and if you add the one Jet carry that equals the number of white guy adjectives the announcing team used to describe him. His connection with Thorson is the best part of this offense. ... Nagel may not be super fast but he's got the route chops to make a guy look bad.

He and Thorson are veterans who will check to weaknesses they see in your pre-snap alignment. Maybe less of a factor against Don Brown but I'd bet we see more linebackers buzzing the slant than we have in the past, because what else is Northwestern going to try?

Skowronek might beat one of Michigan's smaller corners for a jump ball or two but that'll probably be about the end of his contributions unless he's able to make some tough contested catches. Losing Larkin also hurts here... a bit. While Larkin was Northwestern's second-leading receiver by catches his 6.7 YPC average implies a bunch of unsuccessful screens and dumpoffs. His replacement should be able to at least match that.

Northwestern's pass protection is a bit of a shambles. Seth charted a whopping 11 pressure events against Duke, which is well into Michigan Last Year territory. That's in part because of injuries at tackle that Northwestern simply could not sustain. They've only given up six sacks on the year—not great but not awful—largely because they run so much short stuff and check down pretty quickly when they don't.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs THAT ONE FAIRLY PERSISTENT BUST PER GAME. It's going to be difficult for Northwestern to manufacture a big play unless Michigan hands them one, which they do occasionally.

Special Teams

This should be a large advantage for Michigan. Northwestern's punter is senior Jake Collins and has been having issues. After a 42 YPK sophomore year he's declined to 40 and now 37. The good news, such as it is, is that his gross has been net: opponents have zero returns on his 15 punts. Similarly, kicker Charlie Kublander was 13/16 as a freshman but has missed 35 and 43 yarders to start 2018 1/3.

Kublander and Drew Luckenbaugh have split kickoff duties but only netted three touchbacks in 13 opportunities; with the fair catch rule this year that seems like an inability to kick it far instead of Fougin' it.

Northwestern's return game hasn't done anything. Sophomore Riley Lees has 2.3 yards an attempt on seven punt return opportunities; the kick return game hasn't done anything since the departure of Solomon Vault two years ago.

If Will Hart holds to his current form Michigan should have a big field position advantage. Field goals... probably good. But #collegekickers.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if…

• The Gaz wears Patterson's head as a trophy.
• Clayton Thorson suddenly turns into a top ten NFL draft pick because I am watching a Northwestern quarterback do football.
• Isaiah Bowser is Actual Bowser.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• An exchange of punts nets Michigan 20 yards.
• Diabolical Harbaugh Offense is sustained for a second week.
• Zach Gentry goes deep on a Northwestern safety.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Two TD Spread, –1 for Okay Vegas I'm Listening This Week, +1 for THE GAZ, +1 for Versus Our Tackles, –1 for Road Game In Name Only, –1 for That Clip Of A 225 Pound Guy James Rossing A Guard)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline: 5; +1 for League Game, Smoke, +1 for The Takes, Oh The Horrible Takes, +1 for We Must Not Bring Mike Wilbon Joy, +1 for It Remains All In Front Of Us)

Loss will cause me to… pine for Jake Long and photoshop his face on all of the tackles on Michigan's roster.

Win will cause me to… put Will Hart in the Known Friends And Trusted Agents top three, finally.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

A grinder. Michigan's ground game is going to have its issues against an excellent front seven but they'll probably hew to their season-long strategy, which is "get Patterson to the OSU game healthy at all costs."

A Northwestern lead could snap them to attention, but how likely is that? The Wildcats did have a week off and will probably come out with a script that'll be a blizzard of new stuff, and maybe that gets them down the field. Maybe Northwestern can cobble together a drive or two with Nagel and a Skowronek jump ball; maybe Michigan busts something that NW can take advantage of. Those are all ifs and add up to a mean of 10 points.

Patterson should be able to hit some deep balls against Northwestern's questionable safeties as Michigan executes ground and pound with some frippery to keep Gaziano from wrecking guys and maybe putting a linebacker in the wrong gap, and that'll be enough. The punting battle alone should be decisive.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• The returns from the Gaziano experience are Not Good, as he has a sack and two other TFLs.
• Northwestern is held under 50 rushing yards.
• Michigan, 26-8