Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Maryland
WHERE	Maryland Stadium College Park, MD
WHEN	3:30 Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan –15.5
TELEVISION	BTN (Gaudin/Laurinaitis)
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	cloudy, high 40s ~0% chance of rain ~0 wind

Overview

Maryland! Why are you in this conference? No, I don't actually want to know. How many quarterbacks have you played this year?

One?! Is he named Bortenschlager?

Maryland, you've changed. Did you even beat Texas this year? And implode after suffering injuries to literally everyone? No, and just the WRs? Well, then. I have to consider things.

Nope, let's still get you out of the conference as fast as possible.

[Hit THE JUMP for good job Delany]

Run Offense vs Maryland

[Patrick Barron]

Maryland's defense gave up over 200 rushing yards to Indiana, and that's about all you have to know for this section. The Terps have given up at least four yards a carry to every Big Ten team they've played save Iowa, which thudded guys into the line for most of the second half of a 51-14 win, and notoriously OL-bereft Penn State. (Michigan's anomalously bad performance against the Penn State rushing D should be interpreted as maximum Jahan Dotson containment.)

This is, uh, not good when the cyans show up on the heart of your defense:

Grimace dot jpeg. We talked a lot about how Michigan State's OL had the line reset on them by Nebraska and how Kenneth Walker (and tempo) did way more of the heavy lifting against Michigan than the actual OL, and welllllll:

The two full starters are Ami Finau at NT and Mosiah Nasili-Kite at DT, both of whom got the ole cyan after being ejected from the East Lansing universe all day long. … The Terps' first flaw is that they have zero defensive tackles who can hold up against a half-decent offensive line. I cyan'd both starting DTs and I have plenty of clips to back that up. For instance:

That's both starters, Ami Finau and Mosiah Nasili-Kite, getting shoved four yards backward to clear room for a seven yard gain. Plays like that were more plentiful than apples in an apple orchard

Alex also hates the starting linebackers ("They can't recognize a gap, they seek blocks rather than trying to tackle the ballcarrier, and they have only a rudimentary knowledge of how to cover a receiver" –Alex after editing) and all of the pets of the Maryland front seven ("this turtle is disgusting and unworthy of the term 'terrapin'; don't get me started on the purported hamsters" –Alex before editing).

This defense is currently tied for 11th in the Big Ten in rushing YPC. They're tied with Rutgers, which held Michigan down surprisingly well, but Rutgers has a weird stunting defense that's tough to deal with and Maryland just kind of sits there and tries to gets its assignments right, which it does some of the time. Line stats from Football Outsiders back this up. Maryland is in the 90s in line yards and power success rate; they're 113th in stuff rate. The main thing that will hold Michigan back is their own dismal power success rate.

Michigan might have some early hiccups as Maryland does a thing that breaks tendency and Michigan has to figure out how to download it, but even that eventually doesn't mean those DTs are going to hold up. Hassan Haskins is going to have some opportunities to hurdle fools.

KEY MATCHUP: HASSAN HASKINS vs WEAR AND TEAR. Week before OSU, heavily favored but not so heavily favored that he's likely to get a ton of time on the bench. Is Donovan Edwards ready for a healthy chunk of carries?

Pass Offense vs Maryland

[Patrick Barron]

Cade McNamara may have quietly turned a corner here. The last three week's he's put up 8.5, 8.0, and 7.5 yards per attempt against defenses ranging from not good (MSU) to meh (IU) to lights out (PSU). Now his grimmer performances look like outliers. The word "Rudock" has been uttered.

McNamara should have an opportunity to put up some gaudy numbers against a pass defense that has gotten absolutely shredded this year. Aside from a game against FCS Howard, Maryland has not held a team under 6.9 YPA. Five different teams, including Kent State, have cracked nine. They've given up 19 TDs against just five interceptions, only one of which has happened in the last seven weeks.

The one thing they have done well is get after the quarterback—they're 30th in sack rate—but there's a reason for that, and costs associated. Alex:

Maryland is a particularly blitzy team, rushing more than four guys on 57% of snaps in this game. Most of that is rushing five, which is part of their base defense given that they play with five at the line often. The most frequent "blitz" is to see Maryland send all five linemen as rushers.

Despite that, Alex's review of the MSU game is littered with clips of clean pockets and eons of time. The conclusion comes readily: Maryland blitzes a ton because they don't have any individually talented pass rushers, so when guys come clean they get sacks and when they don't it's time for a picnic in the pocket.

So then you've got a bunch of guys in the back seven trying to play with one guy down in circumstances where the opposition often has a lot of time to find the hole. Alex liked a couple of guys in their secondary, but that's not enough when you blitz a lot and don't get home. Also, the linebackers here get lost a ton. Erick All might have a big day.

KEY MATCHUP: OL/RB vs BLITZ PICKUP. Pick it up, win the down, repeat.

Run Defense vs Maryland

Fleet-Davis is a familiar name [Billy Sabatini - All-Pro Reels]

Maryland does not have a run offense. Next.

…

Oh, fine. The Terps almost do not have a rush offense. They're 114th in attempts and have rushed for under two yards an attempt in three of their last five. Tayon Fleet-Davis, who you may remember as the burly alternative to Maryland's unending stable of fringe NFL-level scatbacks, is the primary ballcarrier in a platoon situation with, uh, nine attempts per game. Hassan Haskins has split time most of this year and still has more carries than Maryland's top three backs combined.

Fleet-Davis is all right, a guy who will put his foot in the ground and get upfield. Wiggle: questionable. Long speed: not really. Solid? Solid. The backups don't really have enough data to say much about after the second-string guy went for the mid-season portal.

FWIW, QB Taulia Tagovailoa is more or less a pocket passer. He has 36 non-sack carries on the season, a good chunk of them scrambles. These go for 5.6 YPA but for Michigan it's more about pocket integrity than preparing for the 1-2 times a game Maryland intentionally runs him.

One issue that doesn't necessarily fit in either run or pass but has to be mentioned is Maryland's tempo, which is considerable:

Maryland is the fastest-moving team Michigan will have seen this season. For them, tempo isn't a quirk to pepper in to catch the opponent off guard. Instead, it's a feature point of the offense, regularly getting up to hike the ball with between 25 and 30 seconds on the playclock. Which is what makes them different from when, say, MSU used tempo at Michigan. When other teams have tried to catch Michigan with tempo, they are sprinting up to the line with the intent to surprise the opposing defense. Maryland rarely does that, rather they just move at a brisk pace on every play, the football equivalent of a power-walker.

Prepare to be annoyed or possibly catatonic with rage.

KEY MATCHUP: HARBAUGH vs TEMPO. Hard to see Maryland doing much here unless Michigan's not set, and uhhhhhhhh…

Pass Defense vs Maryland

Tagovailoa throws and throws and throws [Billy Sabatini - All-Pro Reels]

This is where Tagovailoa does his work, and hoo boy is there a lot of work. He's had at least 30 attempts in all games except Minnesota and has crossed 40 five times. Maryland is tenth nationally in passing attempts. Tagovailoa is of course an Alabama transfer with a famous brother and comes with much more pedigree than your average Maryland QB.

Unfortunately for the Terps their wide receiver corps has been devastated by injury. Dontay Demus, Marcus Freeman, and Jeshaun Jones are out for the season. There's not a ton left aside from sophomore Rakim Jarrett, a former five star who's been productive (47 catches) after a freshman year in which he was lightly used.

Jarrett is a jittery slot guy who can also get open downfield; at a hair under six foot he's bigger than KJ Hamler but that's the archetype.

Non-Jarrett options include tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, who's more of a move/H-back guy with good athleticism than your Zach Gentry inline tight ends…

They might be losing but Maryland tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is having himself a night!

Come for the run after the catch from the 6’2” 244 pounds tight end, stay for the athletic hurdle that leaves two Michigan State defenders tackling thin air… pic.twitter.com/CxAUYt9HCa

— PFN Draft (@PFNDraft) November 13, 2021

…and journeyman Carlos Carierre, a 6'5" senior with 12 career catches entering this season. Carierre is your stereotypical high-point guy with a giant catching radius and difficulty separating. Darryl Jones is another guy in that mold: big, old, on track to be an obscure backup, playing a lot now.

Maryland's given up a lot of sacks but that's slightly deceiving since they throw so much. They're a respectable 34th in sack rate. On the other hand: there's a ton of screens baked in there because Maryland uses those almost as much as the run game. I would not expect the Terps to be particularly good at containing Ojabo and Hutchinson when they drop back on passing downs.

KEY MATCHUP: OJABO/HUTCHINSON vs RECOVERING STRIP SACKS. 9/10 guys, let's go for 10.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Another poor special teams unit is on the docket. Maryland's allowing almost 80% of their kickoffs to be returned for over 25 yards a pop without ceding an opponent touchdown; they're averaging just 17 yards a kick return themselves. Combine that if iffy field goal kicking (Joseph Petrino is 10/15 and was 6/12 the past two years; this year he ranks 86th nationally once you take distance into account) and you've got a recipe for a triple-digit FEI ranking.

The punting is fine. Maryland is dead average at both punting it and returning it. It's the kicker and the kickoff coverage that's the issue.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING WELL

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Maryland tempo is causing Michigan coaches to look at each other and ask "can they do that?"
• Michigan defensive tackles continue to do a whole lot of not much the week before OSU.
• There's still no viable alternative to Haskins.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• McNamara continues the Rudock path.
• Ojabo and Hutchinson meet at the quarterback like two lions converging on a giraffe.
• Hassan Haskins is approaching a safety who has to make a decision.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Bad Defense Does Bad, –1 for You Pass All The Time Against Michigan's Dual-Headed Demon DE, –1 for WR Triage, +1 for Argh Tempo, –1 for )

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline: 5; +1 for All On The Table, +1 for I Mean 10-1 Going Into OSU Is Okay, +1 for Going To The Rose Bowl Over MSU Would Be Hilarious, +1 for Generalized Do Not Lose To Delanyteams, +1 for Seton Hall Game Means Basketball School Is Canceled, –1 for But Not Really)

Loss will cause me to… not get my hopes up for next week.

Win will cause me to… same but harder.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Maryland's defense can't stop anyone, no matter what they do. Michigan's pass protection took some hits last weekend but remains among the country's best, and McNamara's going to have options various places. Field goals might not even come into the equation because MD has very plowable DTs.

On the other side of the ball, Maryland will string together a number of drives because their passing game is pretty good and heavily focuses on dinking that Michigan isn't prepared to deal with. Also: tempo. But you can only tempt fate so long against the Michigan DEs. Field goals will ensue, and turnovers.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Letting the sack/strip prediction ride.
• Donovan Edwards cracks 100 yards.
• Michigan, 40-19