[Patrick Barron]

Preview 2022: Defensive Interior Comment Count

Brian August 31st, 2022 at 10:15 AM

Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL.

BEFORE WE GET STARTED

War never changes, but the preview posts do. We've held onto the idea that a 3-4—really a 5-2 since one of your starting "OLBs" is 292 pounds—is not really a thing in 2022 even if Michigan says it is. They did last year, and we didn't believe them, and then they ran out one linebacker for big chunks of the Michigan State game. Was this a good idea? No. Does it force us to reconsider some things, preview-wise? Yes.

Also. I worked on this depth chart for a month and then Harbaugh … just podcasted it out, with full on OLB/tackle/nose/end Ravens 3-4 nomenclature. So. Here is what we believe will happen with the defense this year:

  • ANY SPREAD LOOK, STANDARD DOWN: 4-2-5 nickel that looks bog standard Don Brown pre-snap complete with viper-type person who is either Michael Barrett or Mike Sainristil.
  • ANY SPREAD LOOK, PASSING DOWN: Exotic blitz pu-pu platter.
  • BEEFCAKE: 5-2-4. Nominally a 3-4 but the SOLB is 290 pounds and the weakside end probably isn't dropping much, so functionally a … yep, 4-3 under.

This means that Harbaugh naming about 16 defensive starters sort of makes sense. Is Mason Graham a starter against Maryland? No. Mike Sainristil is. Vice versa against MSU.

The major difference here is that the nickel adjustment is "remove DT, add DB" instead of the more traditional "remove LB, add DB." Since it's 2022, though, the nickel is really your base and a heftier front is more unusual. We have adjusted our depth charts to reflect Michigan's approach but continue to assume base nickel personnel. Like the rest of football, we've given up on calling things defensive ends: welcome to the "edge" era.

DEFENSIVE INTERIOR: PRESS F TO PAY FOR SPINAL SURGERY

  Depth Chart
STRONG OLB Yr. TACKLE Yr. NOSE Yr. END Yr. WEAK OLB Yr.
Mike Morris Jr.* Mason Graham Fr. Mazi Smith Jr.* Kris Jenkins Jr.* Taylor Upshaw Sr.*
Julius Welschof Jr.* Rayshaun Benny Fr.* Cam Goode Jr.* George Rooks Fr.* Jaylen Harrell So.*
Braiden McGregor Fr.* Ike Iwunnah Fr.* Kenneth Grant Fr. Dom Guidice Fr.* Eyabi Anoma Sr.*

The last couple years this was a pain point, or at least expected to be one. Last year the DTs were expected to be an Achilles heel and were instead decent-to-good. This year Michigan loses Chris Hinton, a solid guy without a lot of upside, and brings back the two biggest bust-out candidates on the team.

This looks like a dichotomy: there's every reason to believe that Michigan will have a couple of stars here, but you need four guys, not two, even when you don't run a defense that effectively has 3 DTs starting. Michigan's going to get plays here, in bunches. The threat is that other teams make plays based on youthful backups if they can stay on the field.

[After THE JUMP: hype train man]

NOSE TACKLE: FREAK TIME

RATING: 5

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ENGULF [Patrick Barron]

Dedicated UFR readers knew Michigan had something in MAZI SMITH, but he broke into the wider consciousness only last month, when Bruce Feldman's Freaks article listed him #1 overall:

Smith does 22 reps on the bench press, but that’s with 325 (not 225). He close-grip benched 550 pounds. He vertical-jumps 33 inches. He broad-jumped 9-4 1/2. Smith, who had 37 tackles last season, has clocked a 4.41 shuttle time, which would’ve tied the best by any defensive tackle at this year’s NFL Scouting Combine, and it would’ve been better than any defensive tackle weighing 310 pounds or more in the past decade. His 6.95 3-cone time would’ve been by far the fastest among defensive tackles in Indianapolis. The fastest was 7.33. Smith’s 60-yard shuttle time is 11.90.

The Wolverines do a reactive plyo stairs test, which is a series of seven 26-inch high stairs that players attempt to jump up as fast as possible. The team record is 2.21 seconds. Smith did it in 2.82. To better gauge just how impressive that is, Hutchinson, some 60 pounds lighter than Smith, did it in 2.57. …

“Mazi’s rotational strength is ridiculous,” said longtime Michigan strength coach Ben Herbert, who said Smith is the strongest defensive lineman he’s seen in 25 years in the business. “He is an incredible combination of rare traits packaged into one player. He is just ridiculously strong and powerful.”

Previous Michigan players at the top end of the Freaks article include Kwity Paye(#1) and Aidan Hutchinson(#2). Both were first round picks. It would not be a huge surprise if Smith got there himself. If those numbers have any bearing on reality, Mazi Smith would show up at the NFL combine and crush it utterly. Like, 99.9th percentile in the last 35 years crush it.

His UFR grading doesn't quite live up to that but for a second-year defensive tackle this is heady stuff:

MAZI SMITH

Game Plus Minus Tot Notes
WMU 5 3.5 1.5 Has a push-pull move. Needs another.
Washington 16 2 14 Um...what?
NIU 6 5 1 Doubles all day.
Rutgers 5 6.5 -1.5 Up and down versus doubles. Couldn't stay on the field.
Wisconsin 8.5 3 5.5 The OLBs kept getting there as he was ripping through.
Nebraska 12.5 3 9.5 …stayed in the game for a lot of snaps.
Northwestern 6 1 5 Won't move on doubles, can't be singled.
MSU 11 4 7 Him too, as much as possible.
Indiana 12 4.5 7.5 Matters which OL he goes against. Next year breakout.
Penn State 11 4 7 On FFFF star watch now.
Maryland 10 3.5 6.5 Was a good day, get that pass rush up to a C+ and star.
OSU 9.5 3 6.5 That plus more pass rush.
Iowa 10.5 0 10.5 Whose idea was it to stretch the wrecking twins?
Georgia 3.5 2 1.5 Mostly avoided. Mostly just a guy.

Context is important here. When your DEs are turning in +20s DTs are going to be putting up more modest numbers. There's only so many points to go around in our grading system, which usually tries to make a 3 yard play add up to every other 3 yard play. For Smith to put up B+ numbers as a true sophomore in that context is eyes dot emoji.

Also, his highlights pop. Smith's explosion off the snap bends guys backwards. If you single block him he is going to send your OL to the chiropractor. This was a consistent feature from early in the year through the end of it. Veteran Wisconsin OL got the business; so did Georgia, at least on occasion.

NT over center.

The number of plays on which he ends up bending a guy backwards without even applying full force jumps out at you. He's able to stalemate Big Ten OL at the line of scrimmage with one hand.

DT just below the hash

He didn't even get a good jump on the snap there; he's a half-beat late, and it doesn't matter.

This ability hit scouting reels across the Big Ten and you could see opposing OL fairly quake at the prospect of dealing with him. That led to guys getting more aggressive in an attempt to stay upright, and that in turn led to a glimmer of Hurst in there. When guys start leaning into you, sometimes you get to swat them to the ground with your giant meat hammer.

NT just above hash

That is just the beginning of Smith taking advantage of his scouting report. There are guys who get scouted and things get worse for them; there are guys who get scouted and just get better. Smith is tracking towards the latter.

As a bonus for a sophomore, Smith is not a naïve guy who tries the same thing every time. He feels block pressure and fights it. Here he feels an attempted down block from the Indiana OL and rips through the guy into the gap, absorbing the puller. He did not go straight upfield:

By late in the season you could hit him with a third down zone stretch and he would not fire straight upfield but flow down the line, whip his dude, and close it down:

DT to bottom inside Hutchinson standing up

And occasionally he'd use the OL's momentum against them. Here Smith sees the RB cut inside after Ojabo eliminates the edge and instead of continuing to flow he simply tosses the OSU OL to the ground and pops up in the gap:

DT above hash

Doubles did get him on occasion. That's an area he no doubt worked on this offseason, but what happened when he did get hammered back was instructive. The linked clip saw MSU dedicate a play long double to him, and it didn't matter because Michigan's other DL closed it down. If Mazi demands doubles Michigan has the DL to make the opposition pay for single blocking the other guys. (Uh… probably.)

But even when you doubled him a lot of the time he was able to hold up anyway. Sometimes this was a half yard or yard on the wrong side of the line of scrimmage, which is still excellent. Sometimes he gave ground and then shed productively. Sometimes he just stoned it right there:

NT on top hash

Josh Ross gets the glory there on a crucial third down stop in The Game, but it was Smith who stood up to that double so that Ross could run through a completely static OL.

"What about pass rush?" the chorus exclaims. We didn't see a ton of it last year—or at least we didn't talk about it much for obvious reasons. I believe it will come. Mo Hurst is unlikely, but if he can do this to a guy who got drafted in the fifth round…

NT over center

He will cause some havoc this year, when Michigan needs him to. His ability to drive guys back in the pocket is not something that's going to create sacks on its own, but when guys are able to chip in with middling rushes around the corner that cause a step-up, or with stunts that don't quite get there, Smith will be in position to wreck house:

It might actually work better with DEs who don't have illusions about their ability to get around the corner. Here Smith blasts his guy back into the QB's lap but Taylor Upshaw has dedicated himself to an unsuccessful edge rush so there's a scramble lane:

A defense built around constricting the pocket and getting there from the interior pays that off.

It is also not out of the question that Smith is able to do more than just crush guys back into the pocket. From time to time last year he flashed legitimate zip-around-you rush.

DT to bottom inside Hutchinson

That guy is so concerned Smith is going to ride him like a donkey into the quarterback that he's vulnerable to a swim move around him.

Smith also had a knack for batting down passes. Michigan occasionally dropped him into a short zone, largely to be mean. This might not be as prominent a part of the gameplan this year because Michigan won't have the luxury of asking the edge guys to meet at the quarterback, but Smith did have 4 bat-downs a year ago. FWIW.

This space has been team Mazi since we put his recruiting profile together—"if I picked a four-star who should probably have been a five-star Smith would be it"—and sees no reason to deviate from stan stance at this juncture. Last year he was putting together the pieces and greatly overperformed expectations in year three. Add the Freaks article on top of that and both his trajectory and ceiling are A+. Smith will blow up into one of the best DTs in the country. Don't expect him back next year.

I GUESS WE'RE CALLING IT END: GO TIME

RATING: 4.

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this year: one step closer [Bryan Fuller]

With Chris Hinton's, uh, debatable decision to become an NFL UDFA, KRIS JENKINS [recruiting profile] ascends into a starting spot next to Smith. On the podcast Seth speculated that Hinton might have been worried that Jenkins was coming for Hinton's job; I find that unlikely at a spot that sees as much platooning as DT does. But I do think there might be a little nugget of truth in that. Jenkins finished last season with a surge in limited snaps, scoring a total of +13 against Iowa and Georgia in just 36 snaps. He also sprinkled in quality cameos against Rutgers and Nebraska.

Given Jenkins's odd path to DT—he arrived at 239(!) pounds and has been piling on slabs of muscle ever since—blips like that over the course of year two are highly encouraging. So are the things people are saying. I wonder if Seth kept a little file with his top 5 UFR quotes most likely to make it into the season preview. If so I suspect this was #1:

Jenkins [is] an explosive proto-Hurst

I'm listening, particularly since Jenkins tweeted early this month that he'd finally cracked the 290 mark. The breakout potential veritably oozes.

It's all about momentum here. Jenkins looked exactly like he should last year: explosive, tantalizing, prone to getting blown out because he's just too small:

hand-in-dirt DE to top

This was less of a problem—ie, not one—when Jenkins was not immediately doubled. He ended up taking a bunch of improvised doubles because he'd shoot a single blocker into the backfield and draw attention from a second, allowing a teammate to go thwack:

hand-in-dirt DE to bottom

When he didn't draw a second guy the get-off was noticeable. Jenkins frequently shocked back opposition OL in a fashion familiar to Hurst/Glasgow fans:

hand-in-dirt DE to bottom

You can see it coming. Seth asserted after Rutgers that "the typical Jenkins play is the guy in front of him gets rocked back, then Jenkins gets rocked back," and when that guy in front of him happened to be a tight end Jenkins usually stood him up. Or just whipped him:

More pounds, more rocking larger guys back, more shooting into the backfield, profit. This not an underpants gnomes situation. The path is very clear. Just do what you're doing, but larger. Later in the season it looked like that was happening more often than not. Give Jenkins a straight up single block and he's putting Nicholas Petit-Frere a yard in the backfield:

DE hand-in-dirt to top

Petit-Frere just went in the third round of the draft. Jenkins was 280, tops, when that happened. Just keep incrementing and it's going to happen.

"But Mo Hurst didn't just rock guys back," you're probably saying. This is true. A lot of the time he left them a crumpled wreck begging for their kidneys back. We can't say that Jenkins did that a ton, but he did flash the ability to rip someone's spine from their body:

hand-in-dirt DE to bottom says GERT ORFF

Also once he disastrously shot upfield against an opponent stretch play, opening up a lane for a Kenneth Walker touchdown. This is exactly like young Mo Hurst. So we've got that going for us. At this point I'm not even sure if I'm joking or not.

While we have not seen a lot of Jenkins providing internal pass rush, context is important. He was a rotational piece last year and Michigan had those defensive ends. A blip here and there is enough to think there's something there. Here's that blip:

As the world's leading Kris Jenkins stan I think that's the beginning of a beautiful friendship between Jenkins and the torso of opponent quarterbacks.

Jenkins was a true sophomore last year. Repeat: true sophomore. One year removed from being 239. Already more or less functional as a Big Ten DT. Has added 20 pounds from last year's roster weight and asserted on Twitter that the roster weight was five pounds light—and possibly more by now. All of ths points to a breakout. (Per Seth post-Georgia, he is in fact an "easy pick for breakout player.") Program chatter has concurred:

Harbaugh did give a shoutout to Jenkins on the Jansen pod, saying "very, very, very strong, fast, and quick and he’s improved a ton".

Except insofar as they don't talk about him because he's locked in. After Nebraska Seth was telling people that you should "invest in #94 jerseys before Jenkins adds his last 20 pounds and goes full Mo Hurst." Your author concurs, and not just because he picked out Jenkins as the sleeper of the year a couple years back.

Jenkins isn't going to be Hurst, who was immediately that dude, but something in the Ryan Glasgow range is realistic.

TACKLE: HEURISTIC STRESS TEST AHOY

RATING: 3

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I just wish Graham's first name was Ryan or Jordan [Patrick Barron]

This section underwent a last-second rejiggering when Harbaugh's depth chart listed MASON "Ol' Murderglasgow" GRAHAM [recruiting profile] as a starter at tackle. Graham was previously down in a very long section about the two freshmen, because they project as dudes. Now he's up here because Michigan's decided its best bet against the Wisconsins and MSUs of the world is to go with a five man front featuring a true freshman at a spot on the defensive interior.

This is necessarily a bit of a collar-pulling situation. Freshmen DTs do not produce, period. You can be a five star rated in the top ten and your freshman season is an apprenticeship where you're just trying to survive. This situation has several mitigating factors. Two do not directly pertain to Graham. The first is that this is not really a starting spot except in about three games: Iowa, MSU, and maybe Illinois. Second is that he's going to be deployed between Mike Morris and Mazi Smith, so the number of doubles he sees should be approximately zero.

There are various Mason Graham-related reasons to be optimstic as well. One is that he gave the business to Olu Oluwatimi in the spring game, at least on one snap:

Meanwhile I'm almost irritated he's already being proclaimed a starter because he was your author's 2022 recruiting fave-rave—and not just because his name is a Ben Mason-Graham Glasgow mashup. One of the things we think about the recruiting industry is that a lot of the time a guy who shoots up the rankings doesn't shoot up enough (see also: Aidan Hutchinson); conversely a guy who plummets down them often doesn't plummet sufficiently far. Graham is an example of the former. Sometimes the industry itself notes it. Rivals indeed shot Graham up the rankings, but only to #162. He's their #11 DT in the class. And then a few months later Mike Farrell pumps him up as one of three DTs to watch out for going into the season.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Graham profiles as an extremely active penetrator who uses his wrestling background to stay low and get under and through guys. Seth had him at 292 when he did his recruiting profile, and in spring he looked downright svelte. When the phonebooks came out Graham had surged up to 317 pounds—a weight that almost brings into question the "all weight gain or loss is good" mantra we have around here. But not quite, because the things people are saying about him did not change from rapture in the spring. Harbaugh in spring:

"…somebody who can play early out of the freshman class. Really high motor, well thought of, and is already physically strong, but he needs some more strength work, but shows the athleticism and agility to be a really good player. He will play as a freshman. He was playing and playing at a pretty darn high level right off the bat."

Will Johnson at the beginning of fall camp:

"Guys that I would say that have impressed me that I was kind of shocked by a little bit, starting in my class, was Mason Graham … He’s one of the best defensive tackles on our team already, so he’s going to be nice. … If you go back and watch the spring game and watch him go against probably the best center in the country, you’ll be able to see what I’m talking about. Just the way he can hold his own and it just looks effortless for him. It’s crazy seeing him go against seniors."

And Mike Elston this fall on some of the more technical aspects of playing DT:

“He learns well, learns quickly, was taught very well in high school technique … Knows how to block destruct. Understands angles and how to use his hands, which is a huge part of playing D-line. Understands block reactions and picked that up, what we do here, very quickly. He gives us great depth and can go in and play winning football right now."

So that's one "might be good immediately" box checked.

The other thing that holds freshman defensive tackles back is conditioning. Freshman Mazi Smith, Gabe Watson, etc.: they get tired after a couple snaps. They're either too small or too tired. Graham is not too small, and if there's a freshman DT in the country that "too tired" won't apply to it's likely Graham, who started both ways and still had everyone talking about his relentless motor after games against some of the best high school football programs in the country:

…played full time on the offensive line as well and never looked winded or tired, despite playing against a deep and talented Mater Dei line. … When I talked to him after the game and asked how he felt, he said, 'I'm ready to play another one right now in this parking lot.'

Webb recently talked up his "strength, technique, and non-stop motor"

With Graham his strength, technique, and non-stop motor were again highlighted. “You can tell he was a wrestler with the way he will fight you… whoever worked with him in high school did a great job.”

Our deep skepticism about freshman DTs is somewhat mitigated by all of the above. Graham might just be that dude.

And… okay. There's a 15% chance I'm going to bury this take in twenty feet of steel and concrete at some future date, but this feels like Hutchinson:

Graham made perhaps the biggest leap (for me) from his junior year to his senior year. Watching his junior film, I thought he was a slightly undersized, try-hard player who was a decent prospect. He was committed to Boise State at one point, and I thought that was appropriate. But the more I watched him as a senior, I thought he made great strides with his technique. And his high effort continued to be there, despite putting on some weight and starting both ways.

Arrow pointed straight up, massive weight gain coupled with no apparent dropoff in agility—in fact the guy seems more athletic now—, advanced technique, wrestler, insane motor. If he doesn't hit I'll eat my hat and every hat in a 30-mile radius.

What this means in year one is that he'll hang on against top-shelf OL, flash against middling-to-bad ones, and generally hold his own. Don't expect fireworks; neither expect Armageddon. He'll be fine.

BACKUPS

We're going to throw them all in one pile, because realistically most of the season is going to be a nickel with two DTs and folks are going to rotate in at various spots.

cam goode

loving the whole hair situation here [UCFKnights.com]

There are bodies here but most are too young to be entirely comfortable with as two-deep mainstays. The exception is UCF transfer CAM GOODE [recruiting profile], who is entering his fifth year of college football. He was a rotational piece on an iffy UCF defense last year but as a redshirt sophomore he managed 7.5 TFLs in rotational time and had a major impact as a pass rusher:

His freshman and sophomore numbers back that up—via PFF, Goode got pressures on 10.3% of his rushes in 2020, and 11.8% in 2019. For comparison, Chris Hinton last year was at 5.2%, Donovan Jeter was 5.6%, and Mazi Smith got pressures on 7.7% of his pass rushes. Mo Hurst's 2017 was an insane 14.4%, whereas stay-at-home Bryan Mone was a career 2.1%, if you're wondering how the distribution lies.

That dropped off considerably last year for reasons that are either nagging injury or scheme-related. He was preseason third-team all AAC to PFF entering last season, a ranking that didn't really pan out.

If the injury was a real issue that dented his ability, you can reasonably project an all-AAC-ish player into Michigan's two deep. He's not Mike Danna, who PFF thought was a superhero, but he's also put up considerably more snaps and made more plays than Jordan Whittley, and Whittley was occasionally useful a year ago. Goode should slot in as a guy who picks up 15-20 snaps a game with an emphasis on passing downs, where he's completely adequate.

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Benny wears 26 which is immediately endearing [Patrick Barron]

Foremost amongst actual recruits is redshirt freshman RAYSHAUN BENNY [recruiting profile], who was the focus of an instate recruiting tug of war ending in favor of the good guys. It is a thunderous posterization that Benny's 15 minutes of UFR fame came in the Big Ten championship game:

I know this is a weird question to ask about a conference championship game, but did we learn anything about the future from the kids who played in garbage time?

Rayshaun Benny looks like he’s going to be a dude.

George Rooks played DT and was blown off the ball pretty badly. He’s more end-shaped at the moment, so it’ll be a minute. The positive that he got on the field is a stronger indication than what happened once there.

We don't have a whole lot more to go on. Alex has absorbed all the offseason talk and asserted that Benny has "gotten the most buzz" amongst the second year players, and Harbaugh's depth chart dump noted he's "really been happy with the interior defensive line" before naming Benny alongside of Graham:

…he's just coming on like gangbusters. Every practice is is better and better. So I'm really excited about Rayshaun.

He's been passed by Graham but that might actually be ok. There's reasons to believe in both, and worst case it seems like the floor here is relatively high.

There are a number of other redshirt freshman DTs vying for time, but that's already five guys and the freshman Godzilla is last so it's unlikely any of them have anything more than bit parts. (This is not a "getting late early" situation. DTs take time to develop and you need lots of them.) Time for a little lightning round.

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Rooks still doesn't quite look like a DT [Patrick Barron]

GEORGE "No Such Thing As Halfway" ROOKS [recruiting profile] was the highly rated guy Michigan was pining for in the aftermath of the temporary Benny defection; they got him and then Seth looked at the tape and saw more of an SDE:

…when I finally got to scout the one we were focused on this whole time it was just “Oh, RVB again.” Which is fine. I just really wanted to say “Ryan Glasgow.”

Rooks is listed at 278 on the roster, which is up from 270 last year but still not viable except on scattered snaps. As mentioned in the blockquote above, when he got on the field against Iowa he got "blown off the ball pretty badly." This is fine since Rooks flashed in the spring game, drawing notice from Webb

[Rooks] was the guy that really flashed out there, making plays. I saw him blow up a split zone by himself. I saw him slip a block and get pressure. I saw him get off a block and get pressure.

…and Steve Lorenz:

…really, really effective in the spring game, backing up a lot of what we heard throughout early practices.

That chatter has died down in the fall as the freshmen suck up most of the available oxygen—in Kenneth Grant's case, perhaps literally—but give him another year to marinate and he could be a penetrating force. He could have a role on third downs this year. If he's 2021 Jenkins that's a great sign.

The other two members of the 2021 DT class were fliers ranked in the 1000s by the composite. DOMINICK GIUDICE [recruiting profile] actually got a two-star rating from one of the services and was met with general befuddlement from the industry upon his commit. Aside from a passing mention or two nothing has been heard from him yet. He's up to 290, FWIW. IKE IWUNNAH [recruiting profile] was listed by Seth as one of the boom-or-bust guys in the class because he's "way more than just a 320-pound nose" but also "way less ready to play than you’d think a college-sized NT at a major Texas program should be."

This does not yet have to be said about redshirt freshmen, but: never give up on DTs. Also do not expect these latter two to play in 2022.

A RUMBLING DOWN BELOW

This space is exceptionally skeptical of true freshmen defensive tackles, so it's a double-edged sword that Graham and this guy are fielding almost all of the hype outside of the two starters. But, so… Sam Webb recently asserted that "a lot of the focus" after the starters was on the freshmen and said that the "internal expectation is that both will be rotation players this year"; Harbaugh said "they’re both gonna play a lot of football at a position of real need," which… er.

On the one hand, yes, all indications are that Michigan has a couple of major strikes at one of the most important spots on the field. On the other, it's a little ominous until those guys get ramped up. Graham you can kind of get. The other guy, well…

identifying arrows entirely superfluous

Planetoid flavor freshman is KENNETH GRANT [recruiting profile], who I am legally obligated to describe as "mammoth." And, yeah, he's listed at 356 pounds. Mammoth: check. Recruiting sites split on him, with ESPN and Rivals seeing a three-star gap plugger while 247 and On3 were more optimistic—vastly so in On3's case; they put him just outside their top 100. Their justification:

"[Of all the nose tackles this year] he has some of the best reactive quickness. I think the big thing with him is it’s not just the size, but it’s how how quick he moves like his initial burst off the ball, first step all that."

Allen Trieu was similarly impressed, saying that he "shows some very real athleticism for a player of his size …shows the ability to penetrate and make plays in the backfield." Since On3's EJ Holland asserted that he was the only Rivals employee to see Grant in person (and then he left Rivals), the scale here tilts heavily towards optimism.

Then there are the early returns from the program. There was of course Grant's inclusion in Feldman's Freaks article:

At 6-4, 360, he ran a sub-5.0 40, Jim Harbaugh told The Athletic this month. Ben Herbert, the UM strength coach who has trained more than his share of Freaks, said Grant has “incredible traits” and “is likely to be a No. 1 (Freak)” down the line if he applies himself.

Herbert said one of the tests is a 26-inch high reactive plyo staircase, on which receiver Roman Wilson recently set a Wolverine record, going 2.21. Aidan Hutchinson did it in 2.57, which was flying. When Grant first started, he posted impressive times for his massive size, going as low as 3.2, but after a few weeks, he’s done it as fast as 2.77. “Everyone about fell over when they saw that,” Herbert said.

The 360 pound guy is doing the plyo staircase two-tenths of a second behind Aidan Hutchinson. Okay. We are nearing Mike Onwenu realms of implausible mobility. I am feeling demands for Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man edits flow out of my fingers like Sith lightning bolts. Soon. Soon.

For now Grant is likely to be a bit player since I'm going to blindly assert that pad level is an area for improvement. The improvement should be coming, as the program isn't just talking up Grant as a mountainous ballerina but also as a program guy. Harbaugh:

“Kenneth Grant is my favorite. There’s nobody I like more than Kenneth Grant. Ton of personality and not in a show-off way or anything. Good, genuine, down-to-earth guy. He’s a tremendous athlete for any size, really. If he was 100 pounds lighter than what he is, you'd say, ‘He’s a really good athlete. He’s really light on his feet.’ And it's really important to him. He really studies the game."

For his part, Minter said he was "very, very humble" and "very, very detailed."

Grant did not enroll early and there are some fairly hyped recruits in front of him so all of this is very believable. You just want important snaps to start next year, not this year. I could roll out the history of five-star defensive tackles in their true freshman seasons if you want. Suffice it to say that they're bit players, no matter what. If Grant defies that he's either Jordan Davis 2.0 or Michigan's backup tackle situation is iffy.

Comments

Seth

August 31st, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^

I wonder if Seth kept a little file with his top 5 UFR quotes most likely to make it into the season preview. If so I suspect this was #1:

Jenkins [is] an explosive proto-Hurst

I actually put little x's in a special column of the spreadsheet for plays I thought would come up in the previews. Unfortunately when I went back to look at those there were a bunch of Ojabo things.

BuckeyeChuck

August 31st, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^

This is what makes Michigan an ongoing threat post-Hutch/Ojabo...the development of the DTs.

Two years ago Michigan's DTs were absolutely abysmal and I thought they would be years away from beating OSU until the DT play got much stronger. Of course, Hutch & Ojabo made that happen last year. Then the thought was that a post-Hutch/Ojabo Michigan would have to rely on middling (or worse) DT play and would again get run over by several teams in the upcoming seasons; the entire defense would crumble as a result of poor D-line play.

It's the development of the DTs and Mazi in particular that I think is a bigger story to make Michigan a continued and serious threat to OSU than even all of M's options on offense.

MGlobules

August 31st, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^

For guys like me who are trying to take the xs and os more seriously, would it be possible to place an arrow over the player in question so that I don't spend two minutes figuring out where said player is on the field? 

Yes, I know that this is evidence of my notworthiness.  

Cyan arrow, baby. 

EDIT: And sorry not to be more gracious; these are gold. 

Seth

August 31st, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^

I don't have enough time nor good enough video-editing software to do that right now. I was using Windows's suite in 2016-2019 but they since took it off everyone's computers and stuck it behind a paywall. I know there are free programs out there but my job has shifted now so that I can't spend even a couple of minutes getting a clip. I record the thing, name it something that hews to my organizational method, upload it to gfycat, and clip it there.

Youtube used to give you the opportunity to put boxes on things but they got rid of that too. Also I don't trust Youtube with clips because they'll let anyone make a claim on your account for any reason and force you to go the legal route to fight them, and we don't have most of the UFR library anymore because of that.

OldSchoolWolverine

August 31st, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^

I maintained that the gift from God quote by Harbaugh was referring to Graham, while most said Grant.  Ask yourself this, isn't it more likely he was referring to the true freshman who will be starting ?   And I say Graham will be All-American, and said this when Hutch was a redshirt freshman.

Bo Schemheckler

August 31st, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^

Harbaugh, on Kenneth Grant:

 

“Kenneth Grant is my favorite. There’s nobody I like more than Kenneth Grant. Ton of personality and not in a show-off way or anything. Good, genuine, down-to-earth guy. He’s a tremendous athlete for any size, really. If he was 100 pounds lighter than what he is, you'd say, ‘He’s a really good athlete. He’s really light on his feet.’ And it's really important to him. He really studies the game."

stephenrjking

August 31st, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^

The offensive preview are rather exciting, but of course the reality has been that the defensive previews were what I was waiting for to deflate the hype a bit.

Well, next time. Still hype here. 

mGrowOld

August 31st, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^

So about that Stephen.  Pat Forde of Yahoo sports just published his first "Forde yard dash" preview of the upcoming season and he has us as the #4 team in the playoffs facing off against Alabama.  He has OSU #2 playing Georgia.

So if my math is right that means he probably thinks (as I do) that we will be undefeated going into Columbus and also thinks (as I do) that OSU will be undefeated too.   But given that he has us as the #4 seed and OSU as #2 he obviously thinks (as i do NOT) that we will lose.

This is the year we break the Columbus curse and send their fans home unhappy.

 

stephenrjking

August 31st, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^

I'd be delighted. I think it's a low probability event; we could see every major question answered affirmatively on defense, have the offense we hope we have, and OSU could still hang a bunch of points on us at home.

But the win last year changes the dynamic of the program. For now, a loss is just a loss, and not part of a narrative. And the team has a good chance to be elite.

And, then again, sometimes you roll a 5 or a 6. I think a real psychological advantage is unlikely... but not impossible. Maybe it's a complete shootout and neither defense can do much and the game turns on a decisive play or two and we make the play. 

I'm not quite as optimistic as you are (some of that is still a less-intense version of the pessimism I often hold and haven't eliminated from last year) but I certainly hope you're right. 

It has certainly been long enough. 

The Homie J

August 31st, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^

But the win last year changes the dynamic of the program

This is what I'm excited about going into Columbus this year.  We haven't stepped onto the field against Ohio State coming off a win since 2012.  In that particular game, a Brady Hoke coached team with a broken Denard Robinson nearly beat Urban's undefeated 2012 squad.  

I know that the long streak of losses definitely played on the minds of the guys during The Game, and now we get to enjoy the pressure being on the other team.

kehnonymous

August 31st, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^

Now, I'm annoyed all over again at Al Borges' playcalling in the second half of that 2012 game.  That was arguably the best second half defensive performance we've had vs them this century (bent but didn't break, surrendering only 2 FGs with no offensive support) and Al fkn Borges called that sludgefart offense instead of the 2013 masterpiece.

M_Born M_Believer

August 31st, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^

LB will be the post that will cause most to pause on CFP or bust hype train.  Secondary, I believe, will have plenty to be encouraged about.  And Special Teams will get a 5 since we are returning the best kicker/punter combo in America....

But this pending LB section will lend to some to pump the brakes a little....

stephenrjking

August 31st, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^

LB and (uh, I guess it's called this now) Edge are the areas of biggest concern. Also, the DBs look good but I think there's a bit of a ceiling on them, this is not a proto-NFL secondary. Before I read the previews I would calibrate my expectations that I am a bit more optimistic that we will see significant growth into "good" territory in the LBs than the edge guys, but I really don't know enough to say without seeing the guys who do the work give a layout of what's there.

And we could be surprised. It's not absurd to hope so.

It is unrealistic to hope that a squad with a bunch of question marks at multiple positions can resolve them all by unexpected progress from the talent on the team. If you're looking for miraculous transformations into all-conference players from four positions, you probably have a minimum of three positions that are going to be real problems and you might strike gold on one or maaaaybe two.

But hoping for one position that's a bit weaker to step up? That's not as much of a reach. And, indeed, the ability of the coaches to develop plus-quality players from unremarkable recruiting profiles has been on full display in the last year; Ronnie Bell looks brilliant, Hassan Haskins defied every expectation, and David Ojabo went from a guy we had barely heard of to an edge monster in one season. 

So, LBs that shows somed promise and some flaws last season stepping up? I can see that. Edges developing into plus players? I'm a bit less enthusiastic, but, again: Ojabo. 

M_Born M_Believer

August 31st, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^

With the new positional naming conventions, I forgot to include "Edges".  But point stands, in the end "Edges", LB, and somewhat CB (I'm pretty good with the secondary but its not a stellar deep area like the WR room) they will be projected lower than the rest of the team.  On the other hand, I do not see their projections to be 5 alarm glaring holes that we need to cover our eyes.

In each instance (including Edge), there are candidates and reason from some optimism.

Now focusing on the Edges, the issue there is last year was an extreme talent level.  So the bar was set very high that any reasonable expectation is that we will not meet it.  The bigger question is how will the positional group fare this year.  All American level - not likely..... All Big Ten level - maybe if Morris pops but again not likely...... Solid BIG TEN players... Yay I can see this.

For LB, starters look very solid, but the lack of depth is the concern there.

For CB, I am very high on Turner and have the other CB be a multi year starter is certainly a good floor to start with to go along with a 5 star Freshmen.

At Safeties, we lost Hawkins but do return RJ and Rod, so I am comfortable with that as well.

I laugh at the talking heads (peer over at BTN) that try and point out that Michigan has "only 4 returning starters" on defense and that is a reason to be concerned.  While that narrative is true, it is also very true that in the "starters" named by Harbaugh, 9 have played roles last year, only Graham, Sainristil, and whoever plugs in the edge spot for Ojabo are truly "new" starters.

So it most likely won't be 5 alarm glaring holes of mass panic nor will it be the elite level we enjoyed last year.  I am currently calibrating somewhere between Solid BIG TEN and All BIG TEN (closer to the Solid target).  If someone pops, I certainly will not complain.... 

MGoBlue96

August 31st, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^

I mean it's not like all the talent on defense left with Hutchinson and Ojabo. Honestly I am very perplexed that people seem suprised that this defense still has a good amount of talent particularly if guys like Jenkins and Smith ascend as you would expect. Like step back potentially, sure, but stepback in context of still likely a top 25 defense not a tirefire that we should be throwing around words like panic or whatever about. Very few defenses around the country enter the year without  questions or needed growth at least a couple of spots. Under Harbaugh and the defensive coaches that he has hired there has been a pattern of defenders growing and improving in general, I have no reason to believe that will change. But I guess that is part of UM fandom, be overly concerned about question marks when 99% of teams have the same or bigger question marks.

ptmac

August 31st, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^

Besides edge, we lack depth at tackle. Maybe superior freshman mitigate that, but I am skeptical. The LBs seem to be the most questionable position group, the secondary has some major holes to fill with guys leaving, and we have a new coordinator. Yes, we still have talent, but for me, that’s a lot to deal with. 

MGoBlue96

August 31st, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^

A new coordinator running essentially the same scheme and one with prior DC experience. Confident saying that is not really a concern. Secondary is replacing a couple of guys sure, but you are returning one of the better corners in the entire conference with Turner, a guy with alot of experience in Green, an uber talented freshmen and apparently a guy who performed well enough after the position switch to beat that uber talented freshmen out Also Moore was very solid already last year as a freshmen. I also see Moten being at least decent but that one is more a projection. The secondary will be a strength barring injuries, that I am  pretty sure of.

And the reality is 99% of teams also have backups they would rather not have to play or who are questionable. Let's be honest with the amount of points this offense should score, really all this defense needs to be is top 25-30 to have the opportunity to win every game heading into OSU. I mean concern about a defense also should be based on what offense you are likely pairing it with. If this didn't look like a team likely to be the highest scoring of the Harbaugh era I would  more concerned because top 25-30 defense in that case probably wouldn't be good enough to have a shot to repeat as conference champions. 

King Tot

August 31st, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^

I don't think very many people are panicked or believe the defense is a tire fire. It is just entirely reasonable to be concerned about a unit that loses:

-Defensive Coordinator

-A generational EDGE combo

-A generational Safety 

-Multi-year starting MLB/leader

-Multi-year starting S/Leader

-Hassan Haskins giving your defense a breather by hurdling/hurting fools.

 

 

 

 

MGoBlue96

August 31st, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^

Teams lose players and starters every year, that is just the nature of college football. But the transition costs of coaches is far less when you aren't changing schemes. And I am going to be honest some of those are really reaching. Yes Ross was a team leader at LB but he also had pretty glaring holes in his game and really only piqued at good not great.  The growth of Colson and Hill-Greene will at minimum offset that loss. Honestly last years preview wasn't even sure the team had one decent cover corner headed into the season if I remember right. You are not replacing Hutchinson, Ojabo and Hill with like players that is true but all you need is reasonable growth from others to keep make this a top 25 defense. And no offense to Haskins but this offense will have no issue picking up first downs and and scoring points to help this defense out. Arguably the best RB tandem in the conference paired with the best oline, yeah that is precisely what I mean by people reaching for concerns. Quite frankly less ball control and more explosive plays might be better for this defense. Making some mistakes on defense doesn't exactly matter as much when you have buried an opposing team in points.

 

 

stephenrjking

August 31st, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^

Nobody thinks that the problems in this defense will cause us to lose 6 games or anything. But we just made the playoff and the standards are high and the defense is the hard limit on the ceiling of this year's team. 

We've certainly exorcised some of the demons from 2018, but there *were* some important lessons in that game and one of them was that even a "good enough" guy (Brandon Watson) can be exploited. Some of the issues that day were schematic, one was Watson being a matchup issue, and one of them was the complete absence of pressure from the EDGE players that had dominated all year.

Last year the key difference was that the EDGE players dominated. But switch sites, take away the specific advantages that were key in winning that game, and other positions can get exposed.

Remember, high standards. My hope is that we're talking about the difference between 12-0 and legit title contender, and 10-2 and still good but not quite that elite. These are real questions. And I believe the holes in the defense result in a hard ceiling on what the team can achieve. A high ceiling, but a ceiling nonetheless.

MGoBlue96

August 31st, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^

Counterpoint to that is year's offense is going to be better than last year's. That is my point about the context of what offense you are pairing your defense with matters. So I 100% disagree that a top 25-30 defense would ensure a loss heading into the OSU this year as the ceiling because it's not last year's offense either. And that is not to say the offense wasn't good but maybe a couple of those games they struggled in last year like against PSU that required a top 10 defense to gut out with 17 aren't needed this year. Now would the defense need to improve over the course of the year to beat OSU again, in all likelihood yes, but that is an awful lot of games to resolve questions too.

MGoBlue96

August 31st, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^

Sorry anyone concerned about UM's running game with the tandem they have at RB and an oline even better than last years in all likelihood is looking for silly things to be concerned over. That is literally precisely what I mean by people inventing reasons to be concerned.  That is not a knock on Haskins, simply a product of what should be a offensive line this year better than any opponent standing across from them and have two very talented backs to take his place.

King Tot

August 31st, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^

It is not a bold claim to say we will field a top 25 unit. These are the rankings (according to FEI, if you want to use other metrics go ahead) of every Harbaugh defense. 

2021-Ranked 13th
2020-never happened
2019-Ranked 14th
2018-Ranked 16th
2017-Ranked 8th
2016-Ranked 5th
2015-Ranked 19th

M_Born M_Believer

August 31st, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^

I have been stating the same thing as well.  Yes, it is a fact that Hutch, Ojabo, and Hill are gone along with Ross and Hawkins as key players (Gray and Hinton are gone too but I just feel they can be replaced with no drop off).

But looking at this years defense, the star players are playing in different positions, but they are projecting to be impact players...

Mazi Smith - Minimum All BIG TEN, potentially All American

Kris Jenkins - Potentially All BIG TEN

Junior Colson - Potentially All BIG TEN

DJ Turner - Potentially All BIG TEN

That is 4 positions that most can agree we will have impact players.  That is a pretty damn good way to start out on building a defense.  Now you add Mike Morris and NJH with Moore, and RJ,  that is 4 more very solid players.  That is 8 out is 11 positions that are locked down heading into camp and now heading into the season.  That is pretty damn solid foundation to build a defense around.  Oh yay you can also toss in a 5 star CB that will start as the BACK UP CB.

Every team goes into a season with some questions, I am pretty sure there are ~120 other FBS teams that would love to have our situation to hand wring over...

MGoBlue96

August 31st, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^

I would say even if Turner isn't  officially named All Big Ten, All Big Ten level of play is a given for him this year. He already graded out as All Big Ten last year in his first year starting. But yeah your overall point is the one I am trying to make, this defense will still have difference makers just not at the exact same positions. And quite frankly people are ignoring stuff like Moore already being solid last year as a freshman at safety. Not saying Moore and Moten are going to be Hill and Hawkins but I don't see it as concern when one already looked very solid as a freshmen last year and the other is a junior now who is not completely green. Also people assuming the worst as far as that no edge rushers will emerge as the season goes along. But I feel people are also reaching by including guys like Ross and Hinton as major losses because quite frankly neither was good enough that they can not be eclipsed by the guys taking their spots this year. 

MGlobules

September 1st, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^

What I want to believe, as someone watching a little less closely, is that good coaching and a good system that is increasingly well understood mean that even guys with less skill or talent are in their spots and performing as coached. I've followed enough to be very convinced that you just can't expect too much from freshmen, but otherwise, my confidence in Jim's coaching choices really has grown the last few years.

Joby

August 31st, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^

Agreed! Brian’s not exactly known for his deep knowledge of the hip hop canon, but that was excellent (I mean, Mobb Deep is kind of dad rap now, but still).

 

For those unfamiliar, we’re talking about  “no such thing as halfway crooks”, the chorus lyric from Mobb Deep’s The Shook Ones, Part II.