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Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL.
BEFORE WE GET STARTED
War never changes, but the preview posts do. We've held onto the idea that a 3-4—really a 5-2 since one of your starting "OLBs" is 292 pounds—is not really a thing in 2022 even if Michigan says it is. They did last year, and we didn't believe them, and then they ran out one linebacker for big chunks of the Michigan State game. Was this a good idea? No. Does it force us to reconsider some things, preview-wise? Yes.
Also. I worked on this depth chart for a month and then Harbaugh … just podcasted it out, with full on OLB/tackle/nose/end Ravens 3-4 nomenclature. So. Here is what we believe will happen with the defense this year:
- ANY SPREAD LOOK, STANDARD DOWN: 4-2-5 nickel that looks bog standard Don Brown pre-snap complete with viper-type person who is either Michael Barrett or Mike Sainristil.
- ANY SPREAD LOOK, PASSING DOWN: Exotic blitz pu-pu platter.
- BEEFCAKE: 5-2-4. Nominally a 3-4 but the SOLB is 290 pounds and the weakside end probably isn't dropping much, so functionally a … yep, 4-3 under.
This means that Harbaugh naming about 16 defensive starters sort of makes sense. Is Mason Graham a starter against Maryland? No. Mike Sainristil is. Vice versa against MSU.
The major difference here is that the nickel adjustment is "remove DT, add DB" instead of the more traditional "remove LB, add DB." Since it's 2022, though, the nickel is really your base and a heftier front is more unusual. We have adjusted our depth charts to reflect Michigan's approach but continue to assume base nickel personnel. Like the rest of football, we've given up on calling things defensive ends: welcome to the "edge" era.
DEFENSIVE INTERIOR: PRESS F TO PAY FOR SPINAL SURGERY
STRONG OLB | Yr. | TACKLE | Yr. | NOSE | Yr. | END | Yr. | WEAK OLB | Yr. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Morris | Jr.* | Mason Graham | Fr. | Mazi Smith | Jr.* | Kris Jenkins | Jr.* | Taylor Upshaw | Sr.* |
Julius Welschof | Jr.* | Rayshaun Benny | Fr.* | Cam Goode | Jr.* | George Rooks | Fr.* | Jaylen Harrell | So.* |
Braiden McGregor | Fr.* | Ike Iwunnah | Fr.* | Kenneth Grant | Fr. | Dom Guidice | Fr.* | Eyabi Anoma | Sr.* |
The last couple years this was a pain point, or at least expected to be one. Last year the DTs were expected to be an Achilles heel and were instead decent-to-good. This year Michigan loses Chris Hinton, a solid guy without a lot of upside, and brings back the two biggest bust-out candidates on the team.
This looks like a dichotomy: there's every reason to believe that Michigan will have a couple of stars here, but you need four guys, not two, even when you don't run a defense that effectively has 3 DTs starting. Michigan's going to get plays here, in bunches. The threat is that other teams make plays based on youthful backups if they can stay on the field.
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