Hope you like Junior Colson hype [Patrick Barron]

Fall Football Bits Has Defensive Updates Comment Count

Alex.Drain August 15th, 2022 at 1:23 PM

Late last week was the first Fall Football Bits of the 2022 season, which centered on offense. The rationale was a lack of information about the defense, but with another week of practice in the book- and a Big House scrimmage taking place on Saturday- we now have enough information to check in on the defense. 

 

Defensive Tackle 

What we want to hear: Mazi Smith is primed for superstardom, Kris Jenkins is going to be the same player we saw against Iowa and Georgia, the young guys are coming and this position is the deepest it's been since 2016.  

What we're hearing: There's definitely no shortage of Mazi Smith hype. He appears to be a primary leader of the defense off the field and hype bubbled to a fever pitch after he was ranked #1 in Bruce Feldmans' annual "freaks" list over at The Athletic ($). Different insiders have used words like "tank" and "going to dominate" to describe Smith. Kris Jenkins has gotten comparatively little hype from the insiders, other than to say things like "he and Smith play well together". Harbaugh did give a shoutout to Jenkins on the Jansen pod, saying "very, very, very strong, fast, and quick and he’s improved a ton". 

While references to UCF transfer Cam Goode have been scant, the young'uns are seeing their names start to circulate, both the redshirt freshmen who now have a chance to see the field and the true freshmen who the staff looooooove. Among the second year guys, Rayshaun Benny has gotten the most buzz, appearing in a Josh Henschke update this weekend ($), and it sounds like he is on the two deep and poised to rotate in this season. George Rooks has not been mentioned as much, other than that he is in the mix to get playing time. 

It is undeniable how highly the staff thinks of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, both true freshmen. Both were named to us by one insider as two true freshmen who are guaranteed to play all year long, while a Balas update from the scrimmage noted that both guys rotated in on Saturday with regularity ($). Grant also showed up on the Feldman freaks list at #46 and most have now acknowledged that the Harbaugh quote about one freshman being a "gift from the football gods" was in reference to Grant. 

What it means: Smith and Jenkins are your starters. I don't really think there's anything wrong with the relative lack of Jenkins hype. This is a position like RB where we know who the starters are; Mazi gets hype because he's a team leader and they want to push his All-B1G case early, whereas Jenkins is penciled in as a ho-hum starter like Donovan Edwards. Benny and Goode are probably next up on the depth chart, with Rooks/Graham/Grant farther down but all seeing the field at some point. Freshman DTs Suck is still a general rule, so temper exectations in year #1, but the constant hype surrounding Graham/Grant is a pretty damn optimistic indicator for their long-term future/upside. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Hype for a certain LB]

 

[Bryan Fuller]

Defensive End 

What we want to hear: Mike Morris is going to bust out in a big way, Jaylen Harrell has figured out how to rush the passer, Taylor Upshaw appears ready to stick in a larger role, and the young lotto tickets are going to play bit roles. 

What we're hearing: The news on Mike Morris is mostly good. He appears to be a leader of the defense at this juncture and was made available to the media last week on behalf of the defense. One report singled him out as one of the players having among the strongest performances in camp ($) on the whole defense, so it would appear he has one EDGE job locked up. The other is much more unsettled and the buzz here hasn't been uniformly great. 

While there was the Harbaugh quote about the EDGE pressure being better than last year, 1.) that is an insane thing to say or believe and 2.) there are no rumors that back that up. If anything, it would appear to be the biggest weak spot on the defense right now, understandable after losing two high-level NFL talents. Taylor UpshawJaylen Harrell, and Braiden McGregor all rotated in at EDGE during the scrimmage ($) and one source indicated to us that the position had a very bumpy performance on Saturday, which is requiring direct attention from Jesse Minter. Harrell did get the milquetoast "the staff has high hopes for him" quote in one report a week ago ($), while buzz on Upshaw/McGregor has been pretty non-existent. 

There have been some murmurs about younger contributors that may get to factor in. Another name in the rotation on Saturday was true freshman Derrick Moore. He was another name who made our source's list of first year guys likely to play all year and the reviews of the early enrollee are very positive, as they were in the spring. The more surprising name has only shown up in Josh Henschke's reporting, so it's hard to buy into until we hear more buzz... but, TJ Guy ($). Not a ton being said overall but there is reason to be intrigued that he could be in the rotation.  

What it means: This position is going to be considered the Achilles heel until it isn't. I buy that Morris is a solid player but the lack of another edge is a bit concerning. I think the hope right now is that they come up with different packages that work for different players and an effective mix of playcalls that work to each player's strength ends up in a decent rotation. I was reminded going through my notes from last year that the buzz in camp on the defensive line (especially DT) was very negative and then that mostly turned out to be not true (in a good way)? It could just be possible that Michigan's DL looks worse in practice because they are going up against the literal best OL in college football. 

Anyway the depth chart is the following: Morris is your starter at one spot, and then a hodgepodge of Moore/Upshaw/Harrell/McGregor holds down the other spot, with TJ Guy somewhere. 

 

Linebacker

What we want to hear: Junior Colson knows which way he's running this year, NHG has taken another step forward, Michael Barrett is ready for a Jordan Glasgow-like fifth year explosion, Joey Velazquez's massive biceps have him ready to tackle everyone he sees, and even Jaydon Hood is impressing. 

What we're hearing: I'm not sure anyone on the team is getting as much hype as Junior Colson is. After a true freshman season that provided plenty of reasons for optimism but also many (understandable) mistakes, the coaching staff wants everyone to know that he's made The Leap. Nearly every update from every insider comes with a "that Junior Colson guy is really good" line, and the term "All-American" is being thrown around in a rather cavalier manner. Phrases "beast", "seasoned veteran", and "outstanding" are not unusual in reports. 

The other starting spot appears to be held by Nikhai Hill-Green, but Michael Barrett doesn't seem too far behind. Balas confirmed that NHG was the other starter at the scrimmage on Saturday but a separate source informed us that Hill-Green tweaked something during the scrimmage. A number of players are dealing with minor, "soft tissue" issues ($). Barrett continues to be mentioned as a guy who is close to the starters, but the fact that Harbaugh quickly described Barrett as a "great special teams player" on Jansen's podcast makes me believe that he still will likely have a larger role there than on defense. We have heard good things about Barrett's offseason conditioning and muscular physique entering fall camp, though ($).  

As for the true reserves, discussion has been pretty sparse. Kalel Mullings is still practicing on defense in addition to his RB duties. Have to think this is the result of the depth at LB being pretty sparse. No real discussion of Jaydon Hood and Joey Velazquez besides one line that the team is hoping for one of the two to step up ($). That is a mention, but it is not hype. 

What it means: I think I'm buying the Junior Colson hopium right now. He was not particularly great last year, but no true freshman playing LB is going to be. The freakish athleticism is there and now with another year in the system to learn, I am buying the idea of a leap to All-B1G caliber. All-American level may be a bit high but I think he could be really, really good and that this hype isn't the ole Donovan Jeter 2019 bluster. NHG is your other starter and Barrett is next up after that. Beyond those three, it gets sparse, so please heal, NHG. This is probably the position on the team where Michigan can least afford a major injury. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Cornerback 

What we want to hear: DJ Turner is going to continue his strong play from last season, Gemon Green has figured out how to play the ball when it arrives, Will Johnson is a bona fide stud, and Mike Sainristil is making the switch to defense look easy. 

What we're hearing: There hasn't been much DJ Turner discussion, but this one again feels like the Corum/Edwards bucket where we all know he's good and there's not much else to say. The team sent him to B1G Media Day which says about all you need to know in terms of what they think of him. Turner's athleticism has started to get more talk, though. Harbaugh left this surprising quote on the Jansen pod

DJ Turner, when he goes to run a 40, it could be sub-4.3. And Roman Wilson is right there with him. Those two run very, very similarly, close together.

Roman Wilson was toasting Ohio State's secondary in The Game; Turner running stride for stride is quite an accomplishment. That seemed a bit hokey until it turned out they had the evidence to back it up, as supplied to Feldman for the freaks piece. Turner was listed #31 on that piece with an official 4.28 40 (!), and a 6.29 3-cone time that would be very close to beating the all-time combine record of 6.28 (!!). 

On my spreadsheet of all the rumors I've collected, there's not a single mention of the name "Gemon Green" so far, which is a bit odd, but we haven't heard anything about injuries. Given that he was a starter in the spring, he is likely still a starter and there's not a ton to say. We do know he's alive because of this tweet from the team: 

Green will be a starter unless Will Johnson rips it away from him. Harbaugh described Johnson as "as good as advertised", while all the other insiders have said he will be a freshman who "plays all year". One insider was the first to proclaim Johnson a surefire starter "at some point" during the year on Saturday ($), while the others aren't quite there yet. Needless to say, though, you're going to see a whole lot of #2 on defense this year. 

Outside of those three, Mike Sainristil is continuing to get the buzz he got in spring ball. Balas described him as "no flash in the pan" at nickel ($) and Harbaugh said that Sainristil is practicing 80% with the defense. He is reported to be banged up right now as well, so there wasn't much news of him at the scrimmage, but seems like he is in the team's plans at corner this season in some capacity. 

There isn't much being said about any corners beyond that, as the other freshmen are just getting their feet wet. 

What it means: Turner is the #1 guy, Green is the placeholder starter and should be fine until Will Johnson is ready. The kid is coming on. Sainristil starts as the leader in the slot, but there is definitely a chance someone else is the nickel because [READ SAFETIES SECTION]. 

 

Safety

What we want to hear: RJ Moten and Rod Moore are back and ready to build on promising first years in the rotation, while Makari Paige is ready to jump in, and even some of the true freshmen may get to see the field because their abilities are so NCAA-ready.  

What we're hearing: If you're interested in Makari Paige buzz, I have some good news for you. Coaches and insiders want you to know that Paige is having a strong fall camp, on the heels of a good performance in the spring. After being passed by both Moten and Moore on the depth chart last year, Paige appears to be in the rotation for 2022. Rivals reported over the weekend that Paige has been running with the 1s ($) and that was confirmed with other reporting on the scrimmage rotation, on top of the earlier hype we've heard. 

RJ Moten and Rod Moore are the other two in what seems like a safety triumvirate at the moment. Moore, you may recall, was injured in the spring but Harbaugh confirmed on Jansen's pod that he's back to full health: 

Rod Moore, who didn’t play in the spring, had a surgery, but he’s back, flying around, doing Rod Moore stuff, and he’s leading, too — you ask where the leadership’s coming from, there’s a guy that you make an example to other players.

Not a ton being said about Moten, but chalk that one up to "steady starter doesn't need much buzz". Quentin Johnson would appear to be next up at safety. After being beset with years of injuries, Johnson looked good in the spring and word has it that he showed out in the scrimmage on Saturday ($). He isn't being mentioned in the same breath as the big three at safety, but if you made me guess who's #4, it might be him. 

The two blue-chip freshmen safeties are getting mentioned as well, Keon Sabb and Zeke Berry. Berry admittedly appears a bit behind Sabb (the cost of not enrolling early), but Harbaugh said that he's "a real football player" and then threw out the Rod Moore comparison. As for Sabb, he popped up in one insider report ($), noting that he's playing all over the field and being used in a variety of roles. Neither were mentioned in the list of true freshmen likely to play all year that we were supplied with, though.

What it means: Michigan went a lot of last year using three safeties in the rotation, and that number grew to four by the end of the year when Moore got involved. That was the result of going 4-2-5 as the base and using Dax in the slot. With the Paige buzz, it wouldn't stun me if they try that again. Perhaps they could use Moore in the slot, if he's better at it than Sainristil, and then have Paige and Moten as your two high safeties. Regardless, it seems like Paige is primed for a much bigger role than he had in 2021. After those three, I think it's Quinten Johnson and then Sabb/Berry mix in, ideally in garbage time. 

Comments

MGoBlue96

August 16th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^

Interesting no mention of Welschof as a potential edge rusher, I figured a slimmed down version of him with his natural athleticism would at least get a mention as a rotational piece, particularly if the other guys aren't really taking control of that spot. I believe this defense will still be solid this year with the defensive line, middle linebackers and secondary being strengths, but the lack of edge rushers really flashing in camp is concerning along with what seems like some shaky depth at a couple of spots.

Seems like a case where Minter is going to have to get creative with the blitzes and trust his cover guys rather than rely on individual pass rushing ability with safer coverages.I think the secondary is good enough to do that for most of the schedule but definitely going to need a couple of individual edge rushers to emerge by OSU to beat them again.

njvictor

August 16th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^

No mention of Welschof with the DEs is definitely interesting/concerning. Weird that we have so many bodies at DE and seemingly no one is stepping up

MGoBlue96

August 16th, 2022 at 12:42 PM ^

Would he be mentioned with the DE's though? I was under the impression he had been moved to outside linebacker to the spot Ojabo was at last year. Though semantics since he isn't mentioned at LB or DE. Sometimes I get confused on what UM's base defense is,  I thought of it as a 3-4 last year with Ojabo and Hutchinson as outside LB's. 

JonnyHintz

August 16th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^

I’d say Michigan doesn’t really have a “base” defense. The defense, by design, uses the positional versatility of players in a way where it’s almost positionless football. 
 

You have your nose tackle set in stone, but aside from that it’s hard to really put a label on anyone without getting into the specifics of alignment (the guy playing “tackle” lined up where an end lines up for example). We had tackles that were more like ends last year, edge rushers who were like ends and linebackers. Nose tackle is the only position that doesn’t seem to have any real versatility to it.
 

Personnel wise, a lot of the time you could argue a 4-2-5, 3-3-5 or a 2-4-5 depending on how you want to classify Ojabo and Hutchinson. We also ran plenty of snaps where we were in a 3-4, 4-3 or 5-2 alignment. Again, all depending on how you want to classify certain players on that particular play with the same personnel on the field. 

Watching From Afar

August 16th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^

I think it was a write up by Seth immediately following MacDonald's hiring that went over the assumed Ravens approach. That defense never really came to pass though due to roster limitations/having the game breakers at certain positions. The defense was supposed to be something like a NT, 3T, 5T (all "DT" types), a Rush end (Hutchinson) and "OLB" (Ojabo) with 1 MLB (Ross) and then 5 DBs (Turner, Gray, Hill, Moore/Moten, Hawkins). Since they didn't really have 3 DT types to run out there, it shifted to a 4-2-5 or a 2-4-5 if you didn't count Hutchinson and Ojabo as DEs because they were usually in a 2pt stance and inserted another LB (Colson/NHG). When they did go with a 5 man front and 1 LB it didn't work out well (MSU). Regardless, Hutchinson/Ojabo almost never had OLB responsibilities except when teams forced them into it (OSU with JSN on Ojabo in pass coverage).

This year I don't really see that Ravens defense coming out either. Morris would be a good 5T, but they don't have the EDGE guys outside of him to play the Hutchinson/Ojabo roles. Even if Rooks or Benny or some other DT shaped guy could take a starter role as that 3rd "DT" I don't know if trading a LB for that would work right now. I would think they go with a traditional 2 DT, 2 EDGE, 2 LBs, and 5 DBs more often than not. That 5th "DB" could be Barrett though if the need a little more mass around the LoS.

Carpetbagger

August 16th, 2022 at 4:05 PM ^

Hutch and to a lesser extent Ojabo "broke" the defense last year. Yes, we were missing bodies inside, but why would you take Hutchinson off the field when he can be both Anchor and Edge at the same time?

If anything gets us into a base 5 man line this year it's the linebackers. If the LBs can't properly defend the gaps, the 5 man lines eliminate s lot of them.

Watching From Afar

August 16th, 2022 at 4:25 PM ^

Yeah, that's what I meant by roster limitations/where the best players were. If you have a Ravens defense with the best players being a WLB that doesn't really have a pass rush and no big beefy NTs, you don't trot out that Ravens line up.

Hutchinson was a monster and not really adept at playing OLB. He was a DE that got to play in a 2pt stance but it didn't matter if he put his hand in the ground either. Same with Ojabo. You put those guys at a more traditional DE role and work around them.

This year they still probably don't have enough big maulers to play the NT, 3T, 5T with EDGE guys that can do more than set the edge/pass rush. Similarly, they probably don't have a hybrid/big body Safety that can come down in the box and thump AND cover. Maybe Moten to some extent. So, they'll run out more of that 4-2-5 look and the 11th guy will be match up dependent between Barrett and Paige.

outsidethebox

August 17th, 2022 at 7:51 AM ^

I understand fans being in a "show me" state of being but there is a ton of talent on this roster and I expect this excellent coaching staff to figure out how to best put the pieces together. This defense is going to play fast and ferociously. For me-I have no doubts that this defense is going to be very good...and I am very excited to see how they pull it off. 

Brugoblue

August 16th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^

I have every expectation this D will be fully functional in short order. Second year in the (relatively) same system. Many experienced pieces back. Can’t be too bummed at any dropoff on the edges considering what we were privileged to enjoy last season. 

Double-D

August 16th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^

Jaylon Harrel to me looked like he flashed the athleticism to make an impact on the pass rush. He made some tackles in the flat that were impressive.

There is just way to many options and some with experience to not get solid production at the edge.

I am expecting the defense to right at the top of the Big Ten.

It pleases me we have a few early season scrimmages to play some guys.

MGoBlue96

August 16th, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^

He wasn't unheralded though, borderline 5 star recruit who just needed time to heal from his acl injury his senior year. Most people expected it to just a matter of time before he would break out after he recovered. I don't think he was 100% back yet last year even if he was techinally available.

Edit: Apologies, after reading above it looks like you were talking about Guy

TrueBlue2003

August 16th, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^

Yeah, McG looked pretty bad against Maryland last year.  I recall the UFR pointing out a play in which Seth at first thought he was Hutch and then saw him get blown out and knew it couldn't have been him.

When McG committed I thought his film didn't look good.  Lack of motor which can't be the case at that position.

The injury was almost three years ago, I believe.  That's not what's holding him back.

michgoblue

August 16th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^

So taking this and the offensive section from last week together:

We are going to score a ton of point, but given the youth and question marks on defense, we will need to because we may also give up a lot of points. 

MGoBlue96

August 16th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^

Alot is extreme, the secondary is looking good, defensive line a strength as well. Middle linebacker depth is a concern but I think the starters should at least be solid. Yes they need to find individual pass rushers or work around it with more exotic looks and trusting the secondary but this will not be a bad defense. I have no doubt this will still be a top 25 -30 defense, they might just not be a top 10 one like last year.

michgoblue

August 16th, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^

I don't necessarily disagree that we should end up bring a top 30 defense.  That said, the secondary seems fine, but is lacking in any elite level talent (Johnson, I know, but he will be a true freshman).  Linebacker depth is a major issue (and also, again, we are somewhat lacking in elite talent).  And, at this point, we are looking to replace two elite NFL edge rushers with no proven replacements.  

This isn't to say that we will be bad, but looking at this objectively, aspects of our defense look decent to good and others look somewhat worrisome.  This may be a defense that starts out shaky and develops over the course of the season.  

MGoBlue96

August 16th, 2022 at 2:43 PM ^

You aren't giving Turner enough credit. He graded out very highly last year, I believe his advanced stat grading was similar to first year Long, etc. And replacing talent is just the nature of college football, most teams have question marks entering the year, doesn't mean answers aren't found if guys are given the opportunity.

michgoblue

August 17th, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^

I like Turner and think that he had the potential to have a very good season.  And I also agree with you that replacing talent is the nature of the sport, and that most teams have question marks.  But none of that changes my main point - which was not intended to be doom and gloom - which is just that defense does have a very high number of those question marks and a distinct lack of proven, experienced talent. 

Like you said, we may find answers to many of those question marks, but we also may not.  That's why they are question marks.  But, to highlight my point, compare the defense to the offense, where we have returning starters or experienced backups at QB (starter and back-up), RB (Corrum-Edwards), WR (too many to list plus re-adding Bell), TE and almost the entire line (where the replacement at center is a transfer with years of top level starter experience).  

TrueBlue2003

August 16th, 2022 at 7:02 PM ^

Agree.  I don't think we'll give up "a lot" but it'll almost certainly be a step back from last year.  Which could still be really good!

The offense will almost certainly need to score 40+ to beat OSU though, maybe 50+.  The rest of the offenses don't scare me much.  The defense should be good enough to hold up against all of them.

HAIL 2 VICTORS

August 16th, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^

"We are going to score a ton of point, but given the youth"

Maybe-

However considering it's Harbaugh he might opt for ball control and keeping his young (positions that lack depth and experience) defense off the field for much of this favorable schedule.  Not that Michigan won't score points but 28-19 seems more likely under Harbaugh than 38-29.

Come THE GAME all chips are on the table and the "youth" has a full season and you get some luck regarding depth not being compromised.

MGoBlue96

August 16th, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^

They already averaged 35.8 points a game last year and were held to 28 or less only twice during the regular season. Given that this years offense will be even better, I don't see UM being held to 28 or less very often this season regardless of what style they elect to play. And honestly people are being far to extreme about this defense, some drop off likely for sure, but this is not going to a bad defense that needs extreme protection with super conservative ball control. 

JonnyHintz

August 16th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^

It sounds to me like you haven’t watched Harbaugh in recent years. They put up points. 16th nationally with 35.8 ppg last year. Now we return essentially that entire group, add an All-American to the OL and WR1 comes back from an injury that cost him the whole season. 
 

“Ball control” isn’t what I would describe it as either. They run the ball, because they’re good at running the ball. But let’s not mistake Michigan for Wisconsin or Minnesota, whose strategy is to hold onto the ball for 35+ minutes and grind out games. Michigan wants to score points, and they do. 
 

 

DetroitDan

August 16th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^

This writeup is enough to get me excited.  Last year's defensive surprised with Ojabo, Turner, Moore, Smith and others having breakthrough years.  Most of those players are back, and we have a strong freshman class for depth and more breakthrough opportunities.  Someone will step up at the 2nd DE position I predict, as there are 5 or more reaistic candidates.

MGoBlue96

August 16th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^

Yeah, I don't know if it will be at the start of the season but as the season goes on I would fully expect a couple of good individual edge rushers to emerge among the various options that are available. And if it takes longer I believe they can scheme around it and trust their secondary to cover most teams on the schedule. Might also see an improvement in pass rush from the down 3 to offset the edge loss a little bit.