About Last Week

I am in a quandary. A quarry quandary, if you will.

Every year since at least 2015, we have designated a team as The Rock following the games of Week 1.

The one year we failed to do so was 2020. And we saw how that went. This is serious business.

The Rock has never had a formal definition or set of criteria. It’s a vibes thing. It is not given to worst team. It is given to the most Rock team. In a football sense, it’s typically been a team that plays decent defense and minimal offense. It goes to a team that feels like it has the potential to cause some damage, but stubbornly resists any efforts to move in that direction. It’s going to stay exactly where it is, and there’s nothing you can do about it.

The Rock itself is a boulder in Mamallapuram on the southeast coast of India near Chennai. Its original name was Vaan Irai Kal (Tamil for “Stone of the Sky Gods”), but in 1969 Indira Gandhi gave it the name for which it is better known: “Krishna’s Butterball.” It turns out, officials have been trying to get that sumbitch to roll down that hill since at least the year 630. It looks dangerous, like it could take off at any second and start crashing through the nearby townsfolk in cartoonish horror. So for 14 centuries, men of power and means have tried to remove it. But despite looking like it could go at aaaaaaany moment, it stubbornly refuses. It will roll when it is good and ready, and not a moment before.

So, Iowa. We’re basically talking about Iowa.

But Iowa is not on the 2023 schedule. And usually, like the new Dread Pirate Roberts, each year’s Rock has felt like the natural successor to the prior Rock. But this year, there are no fewer than four worthy contenders: Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Indiana.

(Interestingly, those four teams are Michigan’s first four conference opponents. That’s four straight opponents who seem utterly disinclined to try a single goddang thing on the football field. Complaints about Michigan’s non-conference schedule are valid, but this part is not Michigan’s fault. Most of Michigan’s slate of conference opponents is BAD this year. Forget playing *good* teams. They don’t play a single *interesting* team until November.)

I just don’t know that can make the call yet. And, for what it’s worth, the Internet is similarly divided. So, don’t be alarmed, but in violation of all protocols and spitting in the face of all the vengeful football deities, we’re going to hold off one week before we designate a Rock.

What I’m saying is, if we lose to UNLV, it is all my fault.

The Road Ahead

UNLV (1-0, 0-0 MWC)

Last week: Beat Bryant 44-14

Recap: I don’t know what a Bryant is. If you said to me right now, “I have placed a large chest of jewels and other assorted valuables at the 50 yard line of Bryant’s stadium that are yours for the taking”… well, I would Google “Where Bryant Football Stadium” because it’s 2023 and I’m not an idiot, but the point is that I would have to Google it. But whatever/wherever Bryant is, they were 30 points worse than UNLV, which tells me a lot about Bryant.

This team is as frightening as: Playing Hungry Hungry Hippos with a 6-year-old. Yes, you’re going to have to put up some points to win. But that doesn’t mean there’s a lot of mystery in how to put up those points, nor that the outcome is particularly in doubt. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Ricky White only caught 2 balls for 5 yards. That means he’s rested.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: UNLV was outgained by Bryant, surrendering 5.8 yards per play in the process. UNLV Starter Doug Brumfeld threw for only 4.8 YPA with no TDs and one pick against the /Googles/ Bulldogs.

Michigan has traditionally, at least by most metrics, been a more formidable opponent than Bryant.

When they play Michigan: Look, I get it. Just shut up and eat your football.

Next game: @ Michigan, 3:30 p.m., CBS (UNLV +37)

[AFTER THE JUMP: a whole lotta nada]

Bowling Green (0-1, 0-0 MAC)

Last week: Lost at Liberty, 34-24

Recap: Bowling Green threw 31 passes. 11 of those passes were caught by Bowling Green players. 5 of those passes were caught by Liberty players. And Bowling Green still almost covered the spread of Liberty -8.5. I’ll let you decide what that means, mostly so I can stop thinking about it.

This team is as frightening as: Having a dunk contest with a 6-year-old. Score once and you’re probably good. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Connor Bazelak is, very technically, a former Big Ten starter.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Bowling Green is very bad at football and all the things related to football.

When they play Michigan: Orji Time cometh.

Next game: vs. Eastern Illinois, 2:00 p.m., ESPN+
 

Rutgers (1-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Northwestern, 24-7

Recap: The primary takeaway from this game was “Northwestern might have some issues,” but… no, yeah, that’s the takeaway here. Northwestern might go 1-11 this year (they have Howard on the schedule in a few weeks), with the Drive for 2* hinging on this weekend’s matchup, where they are home underdogs to UTEP. Life comes at you fast.

For Rutgers, the only outcome that was going to matter was the one that ended in absolute catastrophe, and they avoided that. So that’s great. But given the circumstances, Gavin Wimsatt only throwing for 5.6 YPA and the team rushing for 2.8 yards per carry may portend another year of offensive struggles… or it may mean that they were up 17-0 midway through the second quarter and figured that was plenty.

Or both. Probably both.

*Is “The Go For 2” better, or is it too confusing? It’s tempting to go with something like “The Deuce Train,” but that seems a little to scatological for even a toddler like myself.

This team is as frightening as: One of those nature documentaries where the two male white-throated sparrow fights one another for mating rights, and the larger white-throated swallow dominates the smaller white-throated sparrow, forcing him to flee. And for a moment, when just the two of them are on screen, you’re like, “yes, that is quite a tough and powerful sparrow.” Then you remember that hawks and owls and cats and picture windows and 12-year-olds with slingshots exist. Fear Level = 4

FIRE THE CANNON, SPARROW

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers only allowed 3.2 yards per play, their best defensive outing against a Big Ten team since joining the conference in 2014.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: 3.2 yards per play sounds great, but based on current exchange rates, 3.2 yards per play against Northwestern translates to approximately eleventy-threeve yards per play against Michigan or Ohio State or Penn State.

When they play Michigan: Rutgers is catching Michigan in the midst of a transition, with James Joseph “Jim” Harbaugh taking over as head football coach.

Next game: vs. Temple, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Rutgers -9)
 

Nebraska (0-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Minnesota, 13-10

Recap: Before we delve too deeply here: yes. Yes they did. They Scott Frosted. They Scott Frosted SO damn hard. The Scott Frosted with cheese. Supersized. With a couple of apple pies and a McFlurry. They had a 10-3 lead with five minutes left in the game, and they had a first down near midfield. But they fumbled and they threw a bad pick and they lost. Didn’t even manage to drag that mangled corpse of a game to overtime. They lost it in regulation. Obligatory “What’d you doooooooooo” chart is obligatory.

It is all true. And, indeed, it is all rather funny.

BUT!

If we’re judging purely on “Week One of Year Zero” standards, this outing was… encouraging? They led most of the way in a road game against a purported division title contender (which… uh… more on that in a minute). They outgained Minnesota by over 1.6 yards per play. They held the Gophers to 3 points through 55 minutes of game time, and to 251 total yards on the day. Most critically, their defensive interior did NOT get blasted like a kid in one of those “kids vs. mascots” football games.

Offensively, it’s tempting to call them a one-trick pony, with Jeff Sims’ legs being their only reliable way to move the ball, but that buries the lede that THEY ARE NOW A PONY WITH A TRICK. Last year they were a zero trick pony. Which is just a pony. I would wager good money that the median pony knows zero tricks. But Sims averaged 7.3 yards per non-sack carry. You can use that! That’s a neat trick!

This team is as frightening as: A new puppy. Clumsy and not terribly bright, but it's growing and learning and full of energy, and every time it SORTA follows a command, you want to give it lots of praise and encouragement. It still shits in the house, but you’re less upset about it than if your old dog had done it. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: First game caveats, but Nebraska just looked better defensively. They were more aggressive, they tackled (somewhat) better, and they were vastly improved at the line of scrimmage.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: At this point, pony slander aside, the Nebraska offense is very limited. The offensive line got very little push in the run game and couldn’t protect Sims (especially at left tackle; Turner Corcoran got WORKED). Sims’ 22 dropbacks netted only 88 yards, and 36 of those yards came from a throwback double-pass that Sims had time to fumble and still had a receiver with no defenders within 15 yards. He also threw three brutal and likely outcome-determinative picks, and was clearly just not seeing the field.

When they play Michigan: Probably Jesse Minter’s only chance to bust out any cool “use against running QB” tricks this season.

Next game: @ Colorado, noon, FOX (Nebraska +3(!))
 

Minnesota (1-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Nebraska, 13-10

Recap: Every year we make fun of the Big Ten West. And every year there’s a part of me that thinks it’s a little… what, elitist? Myopic? I don’t know the exact word, but there’s this nagging feeling that we’re cherry-picking and stereotyping to make ourselves feel better about a style of football that is possibly not as different as we would prefer to imagine. As if, in the climactic scene the Big Ten West could give us a classic, “we’re not so different, you and I” speech.

And then they give us this. 23 total points. 5 combined turnovers. Both teams under 300 total yards. Quality punting. The winning team averaging 3.6 yards per play. On national television for everyone to see.

Minnesota showed some shocking warning signs of a team that might suck offensively. Their rebuilt offensive line was awful against a Nebraska front that was highly suspect entering the game. The interior specifically couldn’t generate anything on the ground⁠—the Gophers averaged 3.3 yards per carry, even after sacks and kneeldowns were removed⁠—and allowed the pocket to be pushed all game. Minnesota’s longest carry of the game was 11 yards.

Athan Kaliakmanis averaged 3.9 yards per play on his 47 dropbacks, which suggests two problems. First, 3.9 yards per dropback is very bad. Second, 47 is WAY TOO MANY DROPBACKS, especially when compared to a team with their 21 rushing attempts. The last time Minnesota threw that many passes in a game was 2015. And they really, really should have lost a game they really, really couldn’t lose, and only a miraculous 4th down touchdown catch by Daniel Jackson on an overthrown ball and /waves arms wildly towards Nebraska’s general existence/ allowed them to pull it out.

This team is as frightening as: It’s mean to say, but I keep thinking “a Tim Brewster Minnesota team.” That’s mean. I know that’s mean. I’m sorry. But yeah. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Jeff Sims helped, but the Gopher secondary looked the part of an elite unit. Tyler Nubin had two picks, and outside of the aforementioned throwback fumble espectacular, they didn’t allow a single big play through the air all game.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Minnesota became one-dimensional as a PASSING team. Against Nebraska. PJ Fleck spent 6 years establishing the run and abandoned it at the mere sight of a defensive tackle wearing #0.

When they play Michigan: It feels like this just turned into a really, really, REALLY bad matchup for Minnesota. Like, really bad.

Next game: vs. Eastern Michigan, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Minnesota -20.5)
 

Indiana (0-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 23-3

Indiana

Recap: It’s weird that a “best-case scenario” performance could simultaneously be a “worst-case scenario” performance, but here we are. Indiana kept this game competitive on the scoreboard for nearly three quarters and held the vaunted Ohio State offense to 23 points and its lowest yards per play performance in a season opener since Jim Tressel was on the sidelines. But at the same time, it was painfully apparent after the first few possessions that Ohio State’s 7-0 margin after its opening drive touchdown was insurmountable. Ohio State probably could have given Indiana 25 extra drives, and they still wouldn’t have reached 23 points.

This team is as frightening as: A snapping turtle. Able to defend itself, but completely unable to move forward in any threatening way. You get the feeling that if you came at it right, you could just pick the whole outfit up by the shell and yeet it like you were trying to waylay a Mario Kart opponent. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Sixth-year linebacker Aaron Casey was everywhere. He had 11 tackles (including 9 solo tackles) and generally destroyed everything OSU tried to do within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Under current NCAA rules, the team that scores more points wins.

When they play Michigan: Score literally any points.

Next game: vs. Indiana State, 7:00 p.m. TONIGHT, BTN
 

Michigan State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Central Michigan, 31-7

Recap: The score line looks fine. The box score looks fine. Michigan State’s performance was NOT fine. Fine implies a not-too-high, not-too-low mediocrity. At no point on Friday was MSU playing mediocre football. For the first 28 minutes, Michigan State played some of the worst non-New-Jersey-based Big Ten football you will ever see out of a Big Ten team. Noah Kim threw for negative yardage in the first quarter, and threw some balls that made me involuntarily mutter “woof.” Sparty trailed CMU ⁠— a well-below-average MAC team⁠ — 7-3 with under two minutes left in the first half.

But from that point forward, they were… pretty good! They outscored the Chips 28-0 from that point forward. They allowed 3 first downs in CMU’s first 6 second half drives. Noah Kim thew some very nice balls, and ended up at a respectable 8.5 YPA and 2 TDs on the day. Jalen Berger and Nate Carter formed a solid backfield tandem, with Carter in particular showing some nice burst.

Which Sparty is the real Sparty? Surely we’ll find out this weekend against Ted Lasso’s former club.

This team is as frightening as: Being forced to do math as an adult that you were 100% sure you would never EVER need to remember in real life. I mean, sure, eventually you can figure it out, but ugh this is so stupid and stressful and makes my head hurt. Fear Level = x^2 – 11x + 24 = 0. Solve for X.

Some of y’all don’t remember your quadratic equations, and Ms. Johnson is thoroughly disappointed.

Michigan should worry about: Keon Coleman was a beast, catching 9 balls for 122 yards and 3 TDs.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: CMU, in addition to being a generally bad team, were a PERFECT matchup for Michigan State. Their freshman QB couldn’t throw the ball downfield at all, so MSU’s defense got to do the one thing they're kinda good at. Washington comes to town in a couple of weeks, and unless Michael Penix gets abducted by aliens or gets somehow recalled to Indiana, we're gonna find out a WHOLE lot more about that MSU secondary.

When they play Michigan: JJ McCarthy. That’s it. JJ McCarthy.

Next game: vs. Richmond, 3:30 p.m., BTN
 

Purdue (0-1, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Fresno State, 39-35

Recap: If you’re going to have a Year Zero, it may as well be an EXCITING Year Zero. If it were me, and having experienced both, I would rather live through a season of 42-39 losses than a season of 13-10 losses. Hudson Card looked pretty good, and there are still some big plays in this offense. They’re just also going to give up a billion points.

This team is as frightening as: A poor man’s 2009 Michigan. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: If Purdue is going to be playing games with basketball scores, I’m going to be irrationally concerned about the prospect of Zach Edey, Red Zone Tight End.

Marc-Grégor Campredon

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Fresno State’s third year QB Mikey Keene threw for 366 yards and 4 TDs while completing >70% of his passes. This might mean good things for JJ McCarthy, who is also a third year QB, or it might mean good things for Mikey Sainsristil, who is also a Mikey.

When they play Michigan: The last home game before The Game.

Next game: @ Virginia Tech, noon, ESPN2 (Purdue +3)
 

Penn State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat West Virginia, 38-15

Recap: A really solid starting debut for Drew Allar. True, it was against a West Virginia team that is very likely scalding, searing, surface-of-a-quasar-hot ass this year. But a lot of the positive signs were relatively opponent invariant; he was accurate, he moved well in the pocket, and he threw well on the run and kept his eyes downfield.

My biggest questions about Allar are really my questions about the offensive line, and how he performs if the line can’t keep him clean. Because I think that’s going to happen when they play a team with a pulse. Because I secretly think the Penn State line remains Not Good. Despite having two dynamic backs against a team that was last in the Big 12 last year in allowing runs of 20+ yards, Penn State’s long carry of the day was 14 yards.

Defensively, you could see the promise of the back seven, but you could also see why the Michigan game should give them concerns. That defensive front remains malleable at the point of attack.

This team is as frightening as: The 2023 Detroit Lions. Yes, we know what we said before. And before that. And before that. But this time we’re serious. We fixed the things. This is definitely the year. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Hey, look! A team with a pulse!

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Quarterback controversy in Happy Valley? It’s too soon to say for sure… but yes.

Numbers never lie

When they play Michigan: So much Mo Bamba.

Next game: vs. Delaware, noon, Peacock
 

Maryland (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Towson, 38-6

Recap: Did you see the part where it said “Towson?” We’re already well over 3,000 words. We ain’t talking about Towson.

This team is as frightening as: The works of George Seurat.

An impressive number of points. Aesthetically pleasing, especially from a distance. Starts to break down a little bit up close. Absolutely no lines. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Maryland gets a dry run against Diet Michigan this weekend, when they take on the Fightin’ Poggis of Charlotte.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: /gestures towards calendar

When they play Michigan: Well I suppose that’s largely a question for Angry Maryland Quarterback Hating God, now, isn’t it?

Next game: vs. Charlotte, 7:30 p.m., NBC (Maryland -24.5)
 

Ohio State (1-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Win at Indiana, 23-3

obligatory [Patrick Barron]

Recap: Yes, it’s early. And it is almost always fooling to read too much into early season results. Michigan stomped Florida in Week 1 of 2017 and looked like a juggernaut against Minnesota in Week 1 in 2020. Ohio State struggled with Navy and then got slapped around by Virginia Tech in the first two weeks of 2014 before winning their next 13 games. Michigan State struggled with WMU and South Florida to open the year they won the Rose Bowl.

But…

NO. No “but.” Leave It alone.

But I have to…

WHAT DID I JUST SAY ABOUT BUTS

That those who maximize the form make the rockin’ world go round?

I read the opener to this stupid word lasagna like 3,500 words ago. How much fate-tempting do you want to do? Do you want to go check out the circuit breakers in the creepy basement alone despite the spate of recent clown murders in the area? Maybe lick that exposed wire that you’re like 90% sure isn’t live? Really explore the space, you know?

How about I just list some facts?

…

Kyle McCord’s passer rating against Indiana of 115.4 was lower than every start of CJ Stroud’s career except for the frozen monsoon game against Northwestern.

…go on…

Ohio State’s 380 total yards were fewer than they put up in any CJ Stroud game, save for said frozen monsoon game.

…I see…

Marvin Harrison Jr. (Kyle McCord’s high school teammate, you may recall) and Emeka Egbuka combined for 32 yards receiving.

…mmmmhmmmmmm…

And all of this was against the team that lost every decent player out of the second-worst pass defense in last year’s Big Ten.

…wrap it up…

And this means Ohio State will never succeed at anything ever again, and their football program never ever ever win another…

YOU SON OF A BITCH I TRUSTED YOU

Yeah I wouldn’t have done that.

This team is as frightening as: Moving beyond “hope” to “expectation.” Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: The defense did stuff Indiana into a burlap sack and beat them with a wiffleball bat (the skinny type, not the big ‘GONG’ type) for 3 hours. And while Saturday provided reasonable evidence for the proposition that Ohio State doesn’t have a full-on doppelganger successor for the CJ Stroud/Justin Fields/Dwayne Haskins/JT Barrett/Braxton Miller lineage, here is almost zero chance this actually portends serious long-term problems for a team that is still overflowing with offensive talent.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Almost zero ain’t zero. Just sayin’.

When they play Michigan: No tradition in football rivals the prospect of vurping up Thanksgiving dinner every 15 minutes for 43 consecutive hours because you keep thinking about the upcoming kickoff.

Next game: vs. Youngstown State, noon, BTN