About Last Week

The mashing will continue until morale improves.

The Road Ahead

Northern Illinois (1-1, 0-0 MAC)

Last week: Lost to Wyoming, 50-43

Recap: Entering the season, the odds that Week 3 would see Washington 0-2 and Northern Illinois 2-0 were infinitesimal. Yet we were less than five minutes from NIU rolling into the Big House next week undefeated. The Huskies trailed 42-16 late in the third quarter, but managed to rattle off four consecutive touchdowns to take a 43-42 lead.

Rocky Lombardi threw three picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown. He still has that aura where every time he reaches back to throw, you think “this is going to be picked, isn’t it.”

This team is as frightening as: Anthropomorphic Husky.

Scarier in concept than in practice. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Running back Harrison Waylee is a speedster who is averaging 161 yards per game at 6.1 yards per carry. He busted a 75 yarder in this game and a 35 yarder last week.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan hasn’t lost to a non-Power 5 team since 2008, the second longest streak in the Big Ten (after Ohio State). Don’t expect that to change on Saturday.

When they play Michigan: Finally, Michigan faces a potent Husky offense.

Next game: @ Michigan, Noon, BTN (NIU +27)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Do not hit the jump. There be Rutgers]

 

Rutgers (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Syracuse, 17-7

Recap: Why did you hit the jump. You were warned not to hit the jump. Now you’re here. And it’s your fault.

Rutgers gained 195 yards. That’s 2.8 yards per play. Even excluding the four times Noah Vedral was sacked, Rutgers rushed the ball 38 times for 77 yards (2.0 yards per carry). Vedral threw for 5.2 yards per attempt (and only 6.6 yards per completion).

And they won. By double digits.

I’mma be honest: I don’t know how. And I refuse to learn how. Sometimes the architects of the ancient tomb put an inscription saying, more or less, “if you enter this tomb you will be set upon by evil demons and your bowels will be as water.” Some brave souls enter. And sure, some survive. But some do not, and this DOES NOT feel like the time to tempt the gods whose primary method of retribution seems to be “random unknown illness.”

Here’s what I can see from here, just outside the tomb: Syracuse had 5 turnovers to Rutgers 0.

 

This team is as frightening as: Ancient tomb curse, but you dropped your car keys into the tomb. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers’ punter, Adam Korsak, is 4th in the nation with an average of 50.9 yards per punt. He was the co-Big Ten Special Teamer of the week this week. He boomed one against Syracuse from his own 30-yard line that came to rest on the Syracuse 1-yard line. That’s a punt of… uh… many yards. I can’t do that kind of math. But it was a very nice punt.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers is converting <30% of their third down opportunities.

When they play Michigan: “Surely Rutgers can’t continue their current +4 average turnover margin per game,” he said, fist-bumping the ominous guardian statue thing as he strolled by.

Next game: vs. Delaware, 3:30 p.m., BTN

 

Wisconsin (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Eastern Michigan 34-7

Recap: You ever walk into a gas station bathroom and realize that, while you don’t know exactly HOW that happened, or the life choices that led to that happening, you already know enough that you aren’t going to look any further?

Wisconsin gained 26 first downs.

Eastern Michigan gained 3 first downs.

We’re moving on.

This team is as frightening as: Facing a 4th and 4 if you’re John Donovan. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Through 2 games, Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi already has 9 carries of more than 10 yards, best in the conference. He has 51 carries, triple that of anyone else in the backfield. I guess you could say the Chez stands alo… [/author is bludgeoned to death, no charges are filed]

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Wisconsin’s chunk plays are solely taking place on the ground. Wisconsin has completed one pass of 20+ yards through three games, with that pass being a 23 yarder against Penn State.

When they play Michigan: In the last couple of games, Wisconsin hasn’t needed chunk passing plays to grind Michigan into a fine powder, mix that powder into a paste, use that paste to make a papier mâché wolverine piñata, and then beat that piñata to shreds until delicious, delicious sweets fell out for the neighborhood children to enjoy.

Next game: Bye

 

Nebraska (2-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Buffalo, 28-3

Recap: All things considered, this was a step in the right direction. Buffalo isn’t awful (the line was only 13.5, and SP+ had it closer to 8.5 points), and Nebraska was able to move the ball regularly. Adrian Martinez averaged 12.7 yards per throw and 12.4 per carry. Buffalo was able to move the ball a little bit, but couldn’t consistently string together drives against the resurgent Husker’s defense.

There. I said all the nice things.

Now Nebraska goes to Oklahoma.

The largest margin for any Oklahoma win over Nebraska is 48 points, which they accomplished in 1949, 1954, and 1956. I just thought I would mention that. For no particular reason.

(If you’re curious, the largest margins in series history the other way were Nebraska’s 52-point win in 1996 and their 62-point win in 1997.)

This team is as frightening as: 1997 Nebraska, but the Huskers are all mini-sized. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Nebraska has apparently found their go-to wide receiver. Montana transfer Samori Toure caught two (2) 68-yard touchdown passes on the heels of an 8-catch, 133 yard game against Fordham.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This was the first time in 19 games that Nebraska had won two games in a row. They haven’t won three in a row since October of 2016.

When they play Michigan: If things continue at the current pace, the Frost/Harbaugh comparisons will be strained, even for those inclined to try.

Next game: @ Oklahoma, noon, FOX (Nebraska +22)

 

Northwestern (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Indiana State, 24-6

Recap: Let us compare Northwestern’s offensive output against Indiana State to Eastern Illinois’ offensive output against Indiana State in Week 1:

• Total Offense: Illinois State – 378 yards; Northwestern – 275 yards
• Yards per Play: Illinois State – 5.5 YPP; Northwestern – 4.4 YPP
• Yards Per Pass Attempt: Illinois State – 8.7 YPA; Northwestern – 4.1 YPA
• First downs: Illinois State – 21; Northwestern – 18

Eastern Illinois is an 0-3 Patriot League team.

This team is as frightening as: Yup.

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Getting caught looking ahead to Michigan State? I guess?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern looks like a poor man’s Washington through two weeks.

When they play Michigan: This year, 14 points is enough to beat any of the purple teams on the schedule.

Next game: @ Duke, 4:00 p.m., ACC Network (NW -3)

 

 

Michigan State (1-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Youngstown State, 42-14

Recap: Not sure we can glean much from this one. Youngstown State was overmatched in every phase, which isn’t terribly surprising from a team that gave up 75 points to Nicholls in the spring season. For the second game in a row, MSU scored a 75-yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage, this time on a bomb to a wide open Jaylen Reed. Reed finished with 181 yards on 4 catches. Kenneth Walker III (7 carries, 57 yards) took a back seat to Jordon Simmons, who finished with 121 yards on 16 carries.

On the other hand, this is a kickass mascot.

Angry Penguin knows what you did, and will not forget it.

This team is as frightening as: It’s really hard to say. Michigan State has looked good, but that was against one absolute creampuff, plus Youngstown State. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Michigan has struggled enough with the version of Michigan State that couldn’t put their pants on without screwing up. The prospect of dealing with Moderately Competent Michigan State is unpleasant.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: If history is any indication, Michigan State will come back to the pack a little bit in terms of long plays from scrimmage.

When they play Michigan: I’m not sure who MSU has that can defend Hunter Dickinson in the post.

Next game: @ Miami (YTM), noon, ABC (MSU +6.5)

Indiana (1-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Idaho, 56-14

Recap: A very encouraging final score. A moderately encouraging box score.

Indiana had 42 points entering the 4th quarter, of which 14 were from special teams touchdowns (a blocked punt and a fantastic 81-yard punt return by DJ Matthews), and 14 of which came off of turnovers on TD drives of 9 and 28 yards. Overall, the two teams were relatively even in yards per play (4.8 for Indiana and 4.3 for Idaho), and Indiana only managed 3.6 yards per rush on 50 carries. Most concerningly, Michael Penix only threw for 4.3 yards per attempt with a long completion of 10 yards.

This team is as frightening as: Ah, Same Old Hoosiers. You have been missed. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: /waves generally towards history of Indiana/Michigan

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penix is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, which is the worst of any Big Ten quarterback who has thrown at least three passes. His passer rating of 94.5 is the lowest in the conference. For comparison purposes, John O’Korn’s passer rating in 2017 was 102.1.

When they play Michigan: I’m starting to think the Michigan game will be critical for Indiana’s prospects for bowl eligibility.

Next game: vs. Cincinnati, noon, ESPN (IU +3.5)

Penn State (2-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Ball State, 44-13

Recap: Beat Ball State. Like I said.

This team is as frightening as: Frightening. But not TOO frightening. Just, you know, regular frightening. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: If USC wants James Franklin, he must be something special.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Noah Cain has yet to get untracked. Or on track. Whichever. Of his 28 carries thus far this season, only one has covered 10+ yards. He’s averaging 4.2 yards per carry, down more than a yard per carry from his career average.

This leads me to ask: why do “untracked” and “on track” mean the same thing? According to this article from Merriam Webster, “untracked” does have a long history, but its popularity may (or may not) be the result of an eggcorn of “on track.” An eggcorn is “a word or phrase that is mistakenly used for another word or phrase because it sounds similar and seems logical or plausible,” like “for all intensive purposes” or “pre-Madonna.”

So, in conclusion, Penn State is a land of contrasts.

land of contrasts

When they play Michigan: November, give or take.

Next game: vs. Auburn, 7:30 p.m., ABC (PSU -6)

Maryland (2-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Howard, 62-0

Recap: Phase 2 of the Maybe This Is Maryland’s Year Rope-a-Dope is complete. There are always two: a victory over a Power 5 team, and a thrashing of an inferior opponent. In 2017, the Terps followed their win over #23 Texas with a 63-17 win over Towson. In 2018, they followed their (other) win over #23 Texas with a 45-14 win over Bowling Green in which they outrushed the Falcons 444 yards to 15 yards. In 2019, their dominating win over #21 Syracuse was coupled with a 79-0 win over Howard.

Week 3 is traditionally where the wheels fall off the turtle. In 2017 it was a 38-10 loss to UCF . In 2018, it was a 35-14 loss to Temple. In 2019 it was a 20-17 loss to Temple. In the last three full non-COVID seasons, Maryland is 6-0 in the first two weeks and 6-24 thereafter.

This team is as frightening as: A cheetah. Fast and dangerous, but is she doesn’t get you early on, she probably isn’t gonna get you. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Playing Illinois in Week 3 may be just the thing Maryland needs to escape their own personal Groundhog Day.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The line in that game is only 8 points. Oh god, but if they lose to Illinois…

When they play Michigan: Outlook still hazy AF. Ask again way later.

Next game: @ Illinois, 9:00 p.m. Friday, FS1 (MD -8)

 

Ohio State (1-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Oregon, 35-28

Recap: I know we’ve said this before, but Ohio State’s defense has issues. Oregon rushed for 7.1 yards per carry, the most they have allowed in any game since 2014. They couldn’t defend the weak side. The back seven (and particularly the safeties) were nowhere to be found. The defensive line couldn’t generate pressure. It was a debacle on par with 2018 Purdue and 2017 Iowa.

The offense remains a death machine, but despite putting up more than 600 yards of offense at 7.2 yards per play, they were only able to score 28 points on 12 real drives.

This team is as frightening as: Nuclear weapons. It’s dangerous to have nukes even if you understand that using them means your total annihilation. You adjust your actions accordingly when you know that there is only one possible outcome. It’s infinitely more terrifying if people deny that inevitable outcome and look at the situation and say, “okay, but what if.” Fear Level = Still 10. Always 10.

Michigan should worry about: Other than the events of the past generation, give or take? Okay, how about the fact that CJ Stroud threw for 484 yards against a top-15 team in his second career start? Or that Ohio State now apparently has three doom-bringers at wide receiver, with 5-star sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba joining Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan wants to run the ball. Ohio State is giving up a league-high 236 yards and 3 rushing TDs per game, on 5.4 yards per carry (3rd worst in the conference, ahead of only Northwestern and Minnesota).

When they play Michigan: Pray for bad weather. Terrible weather. Day After Tomorrow weather. “Dennis Quaid on College Gameday warning us all that it is too late dammit” weather.

Brian Kelly would still throw the ball 35 times

Next game: vs. Tulsa, 3:30 p.m., FS1 (OSU -26)

 

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Western Michigan (1-1, 0-0 MAC)

Last week: Beat Illinois State, 28-0

Recap: A solid rebound game for Western, albeit against a traditionally middle-of-the-pack Missouri Valley team. The score doesn’t really do the domination justice, as Western outgained Illinois State 407 to 57, allowing a total of two plays longer than 8 yards all day. Nine of Illinois State’s eleven possessions were 3-and-outs, with those nine drives moving the ball downfield a total of -1 yards.

Western was about a 12-point favorite entering the game, so a disemboweling like that is impressive.

Next game: @ Pitt, noon, ESPN3 (WMU +15)