About Last Week

Fools will be hurdled until morale improves.

The Road Ahead

Penn State (6-3, 3-3 B1G)

Last week: Won at Maryland, 31-14

Recap: This was a close game through three quarters. Maryland scored to tied the game at 14 on the first play of the 4th quarter, and sacked Sean Clifford to give Penn State a 2nd and 18 at their own 14. But then Maryland made the tactical decision to run the “let Jahan Dotson run uncovered down the seam” play, which was, in hindsight, an error. 86 yards later, Penn State had a 21-14 lead that they would not relinquish. They tacked on a field goal and a late pick-six to pad the score, but

Jahan Dotson was really the only thing that worked. When he was targeting Jahan Dotson, Clifford was 11/15 for 242 yards (16.1 YPA) and 3 TDs. When he targeted Not Jahan Dotson For Some Reason, Clifford was 16/32 for 121 yards (3.8 YPA) and 0 TDs. The running backs* rushed for 4.2 YPC against a thoroughly mediocre Maryland rush defense.

*We’re including the one unsuccessful Tight End Wildcat snap Penn State ran on 4th and 1, because (a) it is spiritually a running back carry, and (b) I really wanted to mention that Penn State ran an unsuccessful Tight End Wildcat on 4th and 1.

This team is as frightening as: A Five Nation Army. Five and a Half Nations, tops. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: It gets boring to say “Jahan Dotson” all of the time, so I won’t say Jahan Dotson. But imagine I gestured towards Jahan Dotson. He has 48% of their wide receiver catches, 49% of their wide receiver yards, and 9 of their 13 wide receiver touchdowns. He‘s had at least 5 catches in every game this season, and he’s pulled in 11 catches in each of the last two games.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penn State’s running game continues to suck. They’ve rushed for 100+ yards three times in nine games, and they’ve only cracked 3.3 yards per carry twice. Sean Clifford’s inability to participate on the ground takes Penn State’s attack from “underwhelming” to “lighting downs on fire.”

When they play Michigan: Please light downs on fire.

Next game: vs. Michigan, noon, ABC (PSU -1)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Less discussion of Jahan Dotson. Not none, but less.]

Maryland (5-4, 2-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Penn State, 31-14

Recap: Credit to Maryland for duct taping a team back together after their mini-collapse. Despite having losing two of their most critical passing targets, Taulia Tagovialoa is still finding ways to move the ball through the air. He completed 2+ passes to 10 different receivers, including 18 total passes to three tight ends. Defensively, as mentioned, Maryland did a solid job against ALMOST everyone in white.

This team is as frightening as: A West African Mud Turtle who knows your secrets.

Don’t worry, he won’t tell anyone. Probably.

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Talk about the perfect setup for a trap game: a road game against a decent team that you have traditionally throttled, sandwiched between Penn State and Ohio State.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Like Penn State, Maryland’s running game also continues to suck. They haven’t cracked 100 total rushing yards since September, and they are averaging a shade under 2.0 yards per carry over their last four games.

When they play Michigan: Maryland has allowed 28 plays of 30+ yards, most in the Big Ten and #122 in the country.

Next game: @ Michigan State, 4:00 p.m., FOX (Maryland +13)

Ohio State (1-0, 0-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Akron, 67-66

Recap: Not the greatest start for Ohio State. The big question coming into the season was, with Duane Washington and CJ Walker gone, whether anyone could generate offense in the half-court. And after one game, that remains a huge question. Ohio State’s only reliable production came from Liddell and Zed Key, who took advantage of an undersized Zips squad to the tune of 39 points on 30 shots and 11 offensive rebounds (to give you a sense of how big of a mismatch the interior was, Joey Brunk scored 4 points in 4 minutes).

Ohio State has a couple more tune-up games before they play a stretch of Xavier, Seton Hall, and Duke, but Michigan State showed last year what it’s like when a generally talented team doesn’t get sufficient guard play, and the Buckeyes may be following down a similar path.

This team is as frightening as: Probably a 4- or 5-seed, give or take. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: EJ Liddell remains a problem.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This feels like a really good matchup. Michigan can put Diabate on Liddell, plop DIckinson in the post, hide whoever they like on Justin Ahrens (who remains Just A Shooter), and force Jamari Wheeler and Meechie Johnson to try to create off the dribble.

When they play Michigan: Not until February 12. So we’ve got some time.

Next game: vs. Purdue, 3:30 p.m., ABC (OSU -20) vs. Niagara, 6:00 p.m. Friday, BTN+ (OSU -22)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Western Michigan (6-4, 3-3 MAC)

Last week: Beat Akron, 45-40

Recap: Despite being a 28 point favorite, Western found themselves trailing by two points with just over two minutes to play before they mounted a 6 play, 75 yard touchdown drive and surviving an Akron Hail Mary. This was a quintessential #MACtion game, featuring 12 scores, 3 punts, 2 missed field goals, 2 turnovers, and a Fat Guy Touchdown followed by a missed extra point. Western outgained Akron by nearly 3 yards per play, but such things have no power in this place.

Next game: @ Eastern Michigan, Tuesday, details TBD

Washington (4-5, 3-3 Pac-12)

Last week: Lost to Oregon, 26-16

Recap: Oh lord, where to begin.

Okay, let’s start with the game itself. Washington was putting the ribbon on its usual abominable offensive performance, having accumulated 166 total yards at 3.25 yards per play and 7 first downs. They trailed Oregon 24-16, but they had the ball with a 1st and 10 on their own 10. 90 yards from a shot at a tie. Three plays, zero yards, and 15 seconds later, Washington (predictably) faced a 4th and 10. So they decided to punt on the theory that they could (a) stop Oregon (who ran for 5.9 yards per carry on the day) on three straight plays, (2) force a punt with something like a minute left, and (d) go 90-ish yards for the tie with no timeouts left. Well, that WAS the plan. Until they snapped the ball through the end zone.

 

pic.twitter.com/NgmmLe0o5I

— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) November 7, 2021

And that was the least embarrassing part of the week.

After the game Jimmy Lake fired John Donovan, which seems unfair because Donovan had Washington playing as one of ten best offenses in the Pac 12, and had them knocking on the door of the top 100 offenses in the country. It’s a tough business, I suppose. But Jimmy Lake himself was then suspended for slapping/punching/Moe’ing one of his players during a sideline kerfuffle.

Might be time to evaluate Washington from a standpoint of status.

Next game: vs. Arizona State, 7:00 p.m., FS1 (UW +6)

Northern Illinois (7-3, 5-1 MAC)

Last week: Beat Ball State, 30-29

Recap: Like Western Michigan, NIU found themselves trailing by two points late in the fourth quarter, but Rocky Lombardi led a field goal drive to win it at the buzzer. The Huskies are now in the driver’s seat in the MAC West. Go figure.

Next game: @ Buffalo, 7:00 p.m. Wednesday

Rutgers (4-5, 1-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Wisconsin, 52-3

Recap: It took a little while, but we’re back where we started. Rutgers is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten once again. They’ve scored the fewest points in conference play (69, or 11.5per game). They are surrendering the most yards per play of any team in the conference, yielding 7.0 YPP to Big Ten opponents. Their sole conference win was over Illinois.

The defense’s total cratering was on full display this week, as they allowed Graham Mertz to throw for 240 yards on only 16 attempts. That’s 15 yards per attempt. For Graham Mertz. Fifteen. That’s 45 feet. 540 inches. More than six full Moussa Diabate wingspans. Compare that to Mertz’s previous 14 starts:

Woof.

But despite all that, Rutgers STILL has a shot at a bowl game. They need to win at Indiana this weekend, and assuming they lose at Penn State next week, the Maryland game sets up as a winner-take-Quick-Lane-Bowl game.

C’mon, Rutgers. We believe in you*.

*NOTE: we do not, but we are contractually obligated to make this statement.

Next game: @ Indiana, noon (Rutgers +7)

Wisconsin (6-3, 4-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 52-3

Recap: Through four games, things looked bleak. Wisconsin had averaged 13.3 points per game and 4.1 yards per play in their three Power 5 games (Penn State, Notre Dame, and Michigan), and they were sitting at 1-3.

Since then, the Badgers have run off five straight wins, over which they have averaged 5.9 yards per play. Sure, the schedule got easier. But Illinois, Purdue, and Iowa have all notched major wins this year (and the Illinois and Purdue games were on the road), Army remains NEVER PLAY ARMY YOU FOOLS, and Rutgers… well, the point still stands. Add that to a defense that has been elite all season, and, baby, you’ve got a stew going.

As a result, Wisconsin currently sits at #4 in SP+. They’re ahead of Michigan. And Michigan State. And Oklahoma. And Cincinnati. And Oregon. And it’s not just SP+; SRS, FEI, FPI, Sagarin, and Massey all have Wisconsin ranked between #4 and #9.

So while I enjoy a good narrative as much as anyone, Michigan thumped a top-5-caliber team on the road, at a place where Michigan hadn’t won since large swaths of America were still using dial-up internet to download No DIggity from Kazaa.

Next game: vs. Northwestern, noon, ESPN2 (UW -24)

Nebraska (3-7, 1-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 26-17

Recap: You may find yourself being Nebraska football. And you may find yourself playing a pretty good team. And you may find yourself playing in a close game with that pretty good team. And you may find yourself with a chance to take a go-ahead touchdown. And you may ask yourself, “how do I score this go-ahead touchdown?” And you may tell yourself, “this is not my go-ahead touchdown.” Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.

The big news, of course, was that Nebraska announced that they were keeping Scott Frost around for another year. They replicated the arrangement Michigan and Jim Harbaugh reached last year, with Frost reducing his salary and (possibly more importantly) his buyout. On the surface, it’s tempting to laugh at this move.

So let’s do that.

SCOTT FROST IS 15-27 IN HIS FOUR SEASONS IN LINCOLN. HE’S 10-23 IN BIG TEN GAMES. THAT’S A .303 WINNING PERCENTAGE. HIS CONFERENCE WINNING PERCENTAGE WOULDN’T HAVE WON THE NATIONAL LEAGUE BATTING TITLE IN ANY YEAR IN THE HISTORY OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL. HE HASN’T HAD A SINGLE WINNING SEASON AT NEBRASKA. HE HAS ONE WINNING SEASON AS A HEAD COACH. HE DOESN’T HAVE A WINNING RECORD AGAINST A SINGLE TEAM IN HIS DIVISION. AND THAT DIVISION IS THE BIG TEN WEST. AND ALL THAT WINNING COST NEBRASKA $20 MILLION DOLLARS. THAT’S TWO MILLION DOLLARS PER BIG TEN WIN. SO WHAT DID THEY DO? THEY SIGNED UP FOR ANOTHER YEAR OF ALMOST CERTAINLY GETTING PUNCHED IN THE DONG, AND ALL FOR THE LOW LOW PRICE OF AN ADDITIONAL $4 MILLION DOLLARS. THE AVERAGE BRAIN SURGEON MAKES ABOUT $400,000 PER YEAR. SCOTT FROST == TEN BRAIN SURGEONS. THIS IS YOUR KING?

Okay, now that we’ve done that: bringing Scott Frost back was probably the right decision for several reasons:

• The cost. As of 2020, Nebraska had spent the most money of any athletic program firing their football and basketball coaches since 2005, with the firings of Bill Callahan, Bo Pelini, Mike Riley, Doc Sadler and Tim Miles costing the school just shy of $28 Million. Firing Frost now would have added an additional $20 Million to that heap. This way, if they do have to fire him next year, it’ll at least be cheaper.
• “Best 3-7 team in the country” sounds like a backhanded compliment, but it’s true. Nebraska isn’t bad. They have a couple of ugly losses, but they also lost to four Top-10 teams by a combined 22 points. According to SP+, they should be about 6-4 on the season against a brutally difficult schedule, and according to the advanced statistics, they are pretty okay.

Nebraska's current rank in various advanced ratings:

FEI: 23
SP+: 24
FPI: 29
SRS: 30
K Massey: 35
Sagarin: 44

— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) November 9, 2021

• Who are you going to get? Nebraska doesn’t have a long line of coaches with strong Nebraska ties, and NO ONE is going to want to be the next guy up after a program legend washed out in such spectacular fashion.
• He’s a program legend. If you’re Trev Albert, you don’t give Scott Frost the Bo Pelini treatment, especially when that would put the full onus on you to make this contraption work.

Next game: Bye. Sweet merciful bye.

Northwestern (3-6, 1-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Iowa, 17-12

Recap: I’m a sports masochist of the highest order. My credentials are pretty well established. I have the Bad Football tolerance of one of those monks who study the art of getting kicked repeatedly in the junk. But I’m sorry, I looked at the box score, and I refuse to subject my brain to whatever happened here. All I know is Iowa’s backup threw for 6.1 yards per attempt to beat Northwestern’s backup who threw for 6.1 yards per attempt because Northwestern’s backup had 3 picks.

Here. Have an otter.

Otter

Next game: @ Wisconsin, noon, ESPN2 (Northwestern +24)

Michigan State (8-1, 5-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Purdue, 40-29

Recap: 536 passing yards.

That’s the most passing yards Michigan State has ever allowed in Big Ten play, and the 2nd most they’ve ever allowed period. Do you know how many times Michigan State had surrendered at least 388 passing yards in a game in the eleven seasons from 2010-2020? Twice.

Do you know how many times they’ve allowed 388 passing yards in a game this season? Four times. You could subtract David Bell’s 217 yards from Purdue’s 536 yards, and Purdue STILL would have had more passing yards than MSU allowed in any single game between September 19, 2010 and December 31, 2014.

There was much complaining from certain circles about Michigan passing MSU in the College Football Playoff rankings on Wednesday, which is to be expected, because of the disrespekt and whatnot. But Michigan State fans (and some national media types) seem to forget that the Michigan game comprises approximately 11% of their games played thus far, just as the Michigan State game makes up approximately 11% of Michigan’s schedule to date. So I suppose I’m sorry that the committee noticed that you just allowed a billion passing yards to Purdue after allowing a billion passing yards to Western Kentucky, Miami, and Michigan, and thought, ‘gee, this team might have a giant gaping hole.’ I’m sorry that the laws of mathematics make it impossible to create rankings where no one can be behind a team they beat. I’m sorry your resume is the 15th best in the country, just behind Wake Forest. I’m sorry it’s pretty easy to make the case that you beat a team that is, ~~~ O V E R A L L ~~~, kinda possibly better than you. And I'm sorry that maybe, just maybe, people don't want to watch you as much as you want them to want to watch you.

So fine. I’m happy to admit when I’m wrong (FACT CHECK: False. Seven Pinocchios. Pants on fire with all the flame emojis). So prove it. Put the clamps on Taulia Tagovialoa. Go to The Shoe and survive Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Survive Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington. Win out, and none of this matters. But if you limp in at 9-3, I’ll expect a full apology.

Next game: vs. Maryland, 4:00 p.m., FOX (haha) (MSU -13)