About Last Week

Did you ever have that moment when you realized "oh no I left the thing in the oven?" Mohamed Ibrahim had himself one of those moments. Except in this case, Tanner Morgan was the Bagel Bites, and yeah, he's already ruined.

The Road Ahead

Michigan State (0-1)

Last week: Lost to Rutgers, 38-27

Recap: I have some good news and some bad news for Sparty.

The good news is that Michigan State turned the ball over seven times. Which is certainly not the best good news one can receive. It’s less “congratulations, it’s a healthy baby boy” and more “we were able to successfully remove all of the porcupine quills from your scotum.” But in the context of having lost the Situation Trophy for the first time, the seven turnovers are a positive sign for two reasons. The first is obvious: that fumbles – of which Michigan State had five – aren’t terribly predictive of future fumbles.

The second is the Shiny Object Effect: it gives people something to focus on as an explanation other than Rutgers outplaying Michigan State. And that’s the bad news: Rutgers straight-up outplayed Michigan State.

They took the lead on an opening 75 yard drive without the help of an MSU turnover, and they held that lead for the last 56:19 of the game. Michigan State averaged 1.3 yards per carry, including 2.0 yards per carry on 31 running back carries. The last time a Rutgers team held ANYONE under 2 yards per carry was Norfolk State in September of 2015. State couldn’t move anyone in the running game; twice they tried to run inside on 4th and short, and both times they got nowhere. They couldn’t pass block for more than a half second. Rutgers was dead last in the conference in tackles for loss last year at 4.9 per game, and they currently lead the Big Ten with 12. Offensive Coordinator Jay Johnson showed no creativity, and couldn't find a way to scheme easy yards against Rutgers' front seven. Which… Rutgers.

So I wouldn’t worry too much about the fumble, or the strip sack, or the fumble, or the interception, or the fumble, or the muffed punt, or the interception that got called back on an offside penalty, or the interception. After all, it wasn’t like they were gonna do much with those possessions anyway.

If they were Halloween candy, they would be: Those round peanut butter taffy things in the weird twisty paper.

Why

Soft, confusing, unappealing. Contain elements that you would recognize as being part of good candy, but in a way that makes them just sad. Do not belong in a bowl. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Michigan State does have a couple of guys. When he was able to hold onto the football, Jaylen Reed was explosive, catching 11 passes for 128 yards and 2 TDs. Jordan Simmons had a little bit of burst, though he was mostly bursting into an unblocked Rutgers lineman. Heck, even Rocky Lombardi looked serviceable when he and his receivers were on the same page.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The offensive line might actually be worse than last year, which seems to be a violation of several laws of physics and the Geneva Convention.

When they play Michigan: Who says we can't have at least one nice thing in 2020.

This week: @ Michigan, noon, FOX (MSU +25)

AFTER THE JUMP: So many monkeys off of so many backs. 

Indiana (1-0)

Last week: Beat Penn State, 36-35 (OT)

Recap: Ordinarily this would be where we would make a bunch of jokes. Jokes about how Penix struggled for a while, but really rose up when he needed to. Or that Penix needed every inch. Or that Penix was fully extended. Or that it looked like Penix might have been short, but it would have been too cruel for the refs to point that out. Or that Penix just got the tip to the… you know, jokes.

But look at this.

Indiana upsets Penn State in overtime pic.twitter.com/pROzRXaJZ6

— Abby Drey (@ADreyPhotos) October 24, 2020

Just look at it.

Come on.

This would be a phenomenal play in the second quarter of a lazy Saturday opener. In this situation? With these stakes? With the weight of ALL of the close calls Indiana has suffered through in the last decade on his shoulders?

Indiana has some significant problems. By all logic, they had the game lost at least twice. They couldn’t run the ball at all. Penix averaged 4.7 yards per attempt (and only 3.8 prior to the final game-tying drive). The Hoosiers were outgained 488 yards (5.6 yards per play) to 211 (3.4 yards per play). They literally handed Penn State a 25 yard field goal attempt at the end of the first half, and nearly as literally handed Penn State a field goal try at the end of regulation to win.

But those are issues for tomorrow. Bravo, Michael Penix. A thousand Hoosier souls may now rest easy.

If they were Halloween candy, they would be: Super Lemons. Seems like a good idea, miserable for most of the time which you KNOW IN ADVANCE but you try it anyway, sweet at the end. You learn nothing from the experience. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Now that Indiana has the monkey off their back, maybe they play more freely.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Now that Indiana has cashed in their one (1) Universe Owes Us token, they may not win another game until 2026.

When they play Michigan: Indiana has some offensive tendencies, and they are not great tendencies. These were the first play of each of Indiana's first 11 drives, before desperation time:

• Stevie Scott run: 1 yard
• Stevie Scott run: 1 yard
• Stevie Scott run: 1 yard
• Pass
• Stevie Scott run: 2 yards
• Stevie Scott run: 3 yards
• Stevie Scott run: 2 yards
• Pass
• Pass to Stevie Scott: 3 yards
• Stevie Scott run: 3 yards
• Stevie Scott run: 1 yard

Tom, you might want to shake things up a bit.

This week: @ Rutgers, 3:30 p.m., BTN (IU -10)

Wisconsin (1-0)

Last week: Beat Illinois, 45-7

Recap: He becomes a myth. A spooky story that Big Ten West defensive coordinators tell their DBs. “Don’t peak into the backfield, or Graham Mertz will get you.” Nobody believed he was real.

With Jack Coan out with a foot injury, redshirt freshman Graham Mertz stepped in and promptly completed his first 17 passes. He finished 20/21 for 248 yards and 5 TDs. Illinois caveats apply, and Mertz wasn’t asked to do too much; 16 of his 22 targets were shorter than ten yards downfield. But everything we are saying about Joe Milton (minus the running part) applies to Graham Mertz, only if Milton had connected on more of his downfield throws. Finally, the one missing piece of the puzzle.

And then he tested positive. And so did Chase Wolf. And so did Paul Chryst and a bunch of other guys. And now Wisconsin football is like so much of the rest of the country: sad and pissed and unsure about what comes next.

The temptation here will be to blame Wisconsin, or to shame some third string DT who went to Chipotle at 1:00 a.m. and caught the COVID. Or to blame the Big Ten for not building some flexibility into the schedule. But that would be to ignore the greater context; the virus is not inevitable, but it is also not predictable. The protocols the Big Ten put in place were not designed to avoid infections. They were designed to identify them and stop them from spreading. That’s what is happening.

If they were Halloween candy, they would be: You know what, we’re just gonna skip this house this year. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Jake Ferguson is a dude. He caught 7 balls for 72 yards and 3 TDs, and looked very comfortable as a downfield target. He was also a capable blocker.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The Badgers struggled to move Illinois off the ball. Wisconsin’s running backs totaled 170 yards on 44 carries (3.9 ypc) by against a defense that allowed more than 5.0 yards per carry (sack-adjusted) last year.

When they play Michigan: It’s more a matter of “if” than “when.”

This week: get healthy, guys.

Rutgers (1-0)

wait

/checks

/rechecks

/checks on a different website

no, okay, that’s what it says.

Rutgers (1-0)

Last week: Won at Michigan State, 38-27

Recap: WE DID IT.

I. Am. So. Goddang. Proud. Of. You.

We know this is of limited value. Michigan State is bad. Michigan State was particularly bad on Saturday, and was bad in ways that you don’t really reflect on you; of the seven* Michigan State turnovers, at least five were just Michigan State tripping over their own dangly bits.

Still, you have to walk before you can run. And you have to not tie your shoelaces together and tie them both to a flaming Zamboni before you can walk. And for the first time in about three years, Rutgers was the more competent, less tragic team on the field. It wasn't the rapturous Schiano coming out party that Matt Millen tried to sell, but it's still not nothing.

There are plenty of warning signs here. Rutgers turned the ball over three times and averaged 3.9 yards per play against a team that was basically a dozen practices removed from a pick-up team. They made Rocky Lombardi look competent-to-decent. They busted some plays and got called for having 16 men on the field at one point. But to be able to point to a few errors in a sea of unremarkable mediocrity, rather than the other way around, is a meaningful step.

Can you beat real teams? Almost certainly not. But y’all have Illinois and Maryland on your schedule, so dream big.

*For those who are unfamiliar, Michigan State turned the ball over seven times. People forget this.

If they were Halloween candy, they would be: Chocolate covered raisins. Yes, we see the record… but we still know what you are. Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers might be decent!

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers is not actually decent.

When they play Michigan: Michigan will rush for 4 times more yards per carry than Michigan State did.

This week: vs. Indiana, 3:30 p.m., BTN (RU +10)

Penn State (0-1)

Last week: Lost at Indiana, 36-35 (OT)

Recap: In the opening act of the James Franklin Era, Franklin lost a tactical and strategic battle to Brady Hoke. It happened in an imminently forgettable 18-13 sludgefart of a game between two teams that finished 5-11 in conference play, so it was easy to set aside as a non-event. But James Franklin is a true believer in the Principle of Checkov’s Gun, and approximately twice per year he dusts off the ol’ blunderbuss and starts a-blastin, Yosemite Sam style.

In this game, Penn State had a 99.9% win percentage according to ESPN. They had a lead and the ball with a first down on the Indiana 14 with 1:42 left. Indiana only had one timeout. Penn State had plenty of options: they could run the ball into the line four times and give the ball back with about 5-10 seconds left 80+ yards from the end zone. Or they could do the same thing three times, kick a field goal, and force Indiana to score a TD in the remaining few seconds. Or you can try to pick up the first down and end the game.

The *ONLY WAY* you lose this game is to score. If you are anything like me, sitting at home, you probably said “let ‘em score.” Because I have played Madden. And watched several football games in my life.

Penn State looked fine otherwise. They shut down a rather experienced Indiana offense and moved the ball pretty well on a decent Indiana defense. On the other hand, Scoreboard.

If they were Halloween candy, they would be: Tootsie Pop. Things are good… things are good… things are good… uh oh things are starting to get a little sticky here… okay now I’m choking. Fear Level = 8

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Journey Brown is probably out for the year, and now Noah Cain is as well.

Michigan should worry about: Penn State’s third string running back, Devyn Ford, is so good he literally can’t stop himself from scoring.

When they play Michigan: Michigan needs to get pressure on Sean Clifford. Clifford is nowhere near the improviser that Trace McSorley was; once he pulls the ball down, it stays down.

This week: vs. Ohio State, 7:30 p.m., ABC (PSU +12)

Maryland (0-1)

Last week: Lost at Northwestern, 43-3

Recap: Maryland’s one hope for the year was that Taulia Tagovialoa and the combination of Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus would be able to win some shootouts.

Tagovialoa was 14/25 for 94 yards (3.8 YPA), 0 TDs, and 3 INTs. Demus and Jarrett combined for 5 catches for 42 yards.

Yeah this isn’t gonna work.

If they were Halloween candy, they would be: Mounds.

Mounds suck.

Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: COVID. Just stay away from COVID.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: It took Northwestern seven conference games last year to score 43 points.

When they play Michigan: Get up 7-0, then put Joe Milton in a hermetically sealed bubble until the following Saturday.

This week: vs. Minnesota, 7:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN (-20)

Ohio State (1-0)

Last week: Beat Nebraska, 52-17

Recap: The offense was as advertised. Justin Fields was 20/21 for 276 yards and ran for another 54 yards. The Buckeyes scored 31 points in their first six possessions and punted twice all day.

Defensively, things were less rapturous than one would expect. After not allowing anyone to crack 5.5 yards per carry (in a schedule featuring Clemson, Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin twice), Nebraska rushed for better than 6 yards per carry.

I’m tempted to chalk that up to first game Pandemic Year hiccups, both because of history and of a general understanding that nothing bad ever happens to Ohio State.

If they were Halloween candy, they would be: Sugar-free Haribo: nope, nope, nope.

Fear Level = 10

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Season’s gonna get canceled anyway.

Michigan should worry about: Except for this game, which will be played twice for some reason.

When they play Michigan: I don't wanna.

This week: @ Penn State, 7:30 p.m., ABC (OSU -12)

 

The Rest of the West

In theory, unless Michigan wins the East (unlikely) or the season gets canceled for some reason (uh…), Michigan will play ONE of these teams in the Week 9 Showcase thingy. May as well keep a general eye on them.

Illinois (0-1)

Last week: Lost at Wisconsin, 45-7

One thing to know: Last season’s brief dalliances with competence may have overstated their progress, and/or overshadowed their general defensive stinkiness. Either way, Madison is a bad place to have a weak linebacking corps and then lose your best linebacker to a concussion.

Next week: vs. Purdue, Noon, BTN (IU +7)

Iowa (0-1)

Last week: Lost at Purdue, 24-20

One thing to know: Kirk Ferentz still has a job. So does Brian Ferentz. And they will for a long time. Poor damn Iowa.

Next week: vs. Northwestern, 3:30 p.m., ESPN (Iowa -2.5)

Nebraska (0-1)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 52-17

One thing to know: Season’s looking iffy, fellas. Better get back to protesting at Fogo de Chão.

GET 'EM

Next week: Staying the hell away from Wisconsin, that’s for sure.

Northwestern (1-0)

Last week: Beat Maryland, 43-3

One thing to know: Hard to say what made a bigger difference: having Peyton Ramsey at quarterback, or having Mick McCall at SOMEWHERE THE HELL ELSE. Both seem to have helped greatly.

Next week: @ Iowa, 3:30 p.m., ESPN (NU +2.5)

Purdue (1-0)

Last week: Beat Iowa, 24-20

One thing to know: David Bell is really good, which is important, because who knows if or when we will see Rondale Moore.

Next week: @ Illinois, noon, BTN (PUR -7)